Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 250135

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
835 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

An upper level shortwave trough was moving over Southeast Texas at
8:30 PM. Radar showed an area of possible sprinkles along and
north of a line from Madisonville to Livingston. The latest HRRR
model showed that this area should exit out of the forecast area
later this evening.

Tweaked the POPS and weather. Otherwise, the latest forecast was
on track.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016/

Shortwave trough on water vapor satellite imagery is expected to
move east tonight and shear out. This will allow for high/mid
level clouds to clear out during the day tomorrow. High clouds may
still be enough to limit the fog potential for the area in the
morning. Possible there could be some patchy fog for KCXO/KLBX but
not enough to put in TAF. Low level moisture return is not that
strong so think TAFs will be VFR with any lower CIGS slow to
develop if at all the next couple of days.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016/

Mid afternoon temperatures across Southeast Texas under partly cloudy
skies range from the lower to mid 80s inland to around 80 at the coast.
Radar continues to show a couple possible eastward moving rain showers,
but most of it continues to likely be virga. Disturbance associated
with these radar echoes will continue moving eastward and out of the
state tonight. Cannot totally rule out a shower or two across parts
of our Gulf waters over the next couple of days, but chances right now
look too low to include in the forecast. Still looking for mainly partly
cloudy skies over the next several days with low temperatures ranging
from the upper 50s to lower 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the
coast and high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. Mid/upper level
ridging then builds across the state from the west and southwest toward
the middle to end of the week and on into the weekend. This feature
will keep a majority of Southeast Texas on the dry side with steadily
warming and unseasonably warm temperatures (lows in the lower to mid
60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s...maybe even around 90 and possibly
close to record highs).  42

Light to occasionally moderate east to southeast winds are expected
over the next few days, with seas generally in the 1-3 feet range.
Seas are expected to build into the 3-5 feet range across the
offshore waters this weekend as winds increase in response to a
developing surface trough in the Bay of Campeche, but no flags are
anticipated at this time. Isolated showers (and a thunderstorm or
two will be possible by late week as an upper level disturbance
moves into the northwest Gulf from the Southern Plains. Otherwise,
expect tides one half to one foot above normal through the end of
the week.



College Station (CLL)      63  82  63  84  62 /  10   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              61  83  62  85  64 /  10   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            71  82  72  82  72 /  10   0   0   0   0




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