Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 261629
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1029 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
SATURDAY WAS ANALYZED AS OF 10 AM JUST NORTH OF LUBBOCK STRETCHING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS WICHITA...KS. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED
OFF AND ON THIS MORNING COURTESY SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
PROMOTING MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE HOUSTON METRO FROM THE GULF. LATEST
HRRR AND RAP RUNS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTERMITTENTLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKIER WITH CLOUDS THINNING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURE TRENDS APPEAR
TO BE ON TRACK. NO CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
30-35KT LLVL JET WILL CONTINUE TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING SATURATION AS THE
DAY WEARS ON AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SOME STREAMER SHRA IN THIS TYPE
OF PATTERN. SIMILAR SITUATION TONIGHT WITH POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASED COVERAGE OF DRIZZLE/-RA (MAYBE AN EMBEDDED ISO TSTM OR
TWO). IF SFC WINDS ARE ABLE TO LAY DOWN ENOUGH PATCHY SEA FOG
CAN`T BE RULED OUT EITHER. WENT AHEAD AND NUDGED POPS UP A TOUCH
DURING BOTH PERIODS...MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT OVERALL JUST NUISANCE
ACCUMULATIONS.

BETTER SHOT OF RAINFALL EXPECTED ON SAT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
SE TX AND PROVIDES MORE OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM. BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE MOVING THRU CLL AREA MID/LATE MORNING AND OFF THE COAST SAT EVENING.
WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD WE GET
ENOUGH INSTABILITY - HOWEVER THAT`S NOT LOOKING TOO PROMISING
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS. DID ADVERTISE
FALLING DAYTIME TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE HOURLY GRIDS SAT.

UPPER TROF LAGS TO THE WEST AND SW FLOW ALOFT & FAVORABLE JET
POSITION WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO SUNDAY UNTIL THE TROF
AXIS FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY.

1048MB+ ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
AND INTO SE TX AROUND THE 31ST. TRENDED TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS AND SUSPECT WE MIGHT NEED TO LOWER
THEM FURTHER IN THE COMING DAYS IF/WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
PATTERN ALOFT AGAIN BECOMES SW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS S/W DIGS
DOWN WEST COAST WHICH WOULD FAVOR CONTINUING CLOUDS AND INCREASING
POPS POST FROPA JAN 1-2. SEE NOTHING TO INDICATE FROZEN PRECIP
ACROSS SE TX ATTM...JUST COLD RAIN.  47

MARINE...
LOW-LEVEL JET MAKING ITS PRESENCE KNOWN THIS MORNING WITH ELEVATED
WINDS/SEAS PREVAILING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS TIGHTENED GRAD-
IENT COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTN HRS...BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
EASE UP TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN
(AND ACROSS) SE TX SAT MORNING/AFTN.  THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD FINALLY
ENTER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS SAT EVE. HOWEVER SHORT TERM TRENDS
WITH THE MODELS HINTING THAT THE FRONT COULD BE A BIT SLOWER...AND
ITS PASSAGE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE SAT NITE
INTO EARLY SUN MORNING. IF THIS VERIFIES SEA FOG A SLIGHTLY BETTER
POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORN. THE CONTINUING WAA ACROSS
THE COOLER SHELF WATERS TO ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG.

IN THE MEANTIME...WILL BE RAISING/EXTENDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR OUR NEAR/OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING ON THROUGH NOON.
FOR NOW. MODERATE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE
SCEC OR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS SUN. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  61  63  41  51 /  40  30  60  40  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  65  73  47  50 /  30  50  70  40  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  66  70  51  51 /  30  40  70  70  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$


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