Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
000
FXUS66 KHNX 052100
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
200 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OFF THE SOCAL
COAST NEAR 34N/134W IS CONTINUING TO SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO
OUR AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN NOTICABLE COOLING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RUNNING 8-16 DEG F BELOW YDAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE CREST OF
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED NORTH OF OUR CWFA IN A STRONG
DIFLUENT ZONE OVER NORCAL. THE WRF AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
HAVE BEEN INDICATING BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT OUR
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z WRF INDICATED CAPES EXCEEDING
1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH LI/S BETWEEN -3 AND -6 DEG
C. HOWEVER...THE 18Z WRF HAS BACKED OFF ON CAPE AND INSTABILITY
WITH CAPES MAINLY BETWEEN 400 AND 800 J/KG AND LI/S BETWEEN -1 AND
-4 DEG C. WHILE THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY ANYWHERE IN OUR CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS BECOMING LESS
LIKELY.

THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING THEN REMAIN NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY OVER SOCAL
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CENTRAL CA UNDER A WRAP AROUND
NORTHEAST FLOW WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMEPRATURES. ANTICIAPTED RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT BASED ON THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 8000 AND 9000 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT LOWER TO
7000 TO 7500 FEET BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT. SOME
OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA COULD PICK UP
SEVERAL INCHES OF FRESH SNOWFALL.

THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE LARGE UPPER LOW EAST
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATRUDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OFF THE WESTERN CONUS COAST. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER SOME WHILE SHOWERS DECREASE
IN COVERAGE WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA.

THE RIDGE IS THEN PROGGED TO SLOWLY BUILD INLAND MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING A NOTICABLE WARMING AND DRYING TREND
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURING
IFR OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THRU 00Z FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY
IFR OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THRU 00Z SATURDAY. INCREASING
AREAS OF MVFR OVER THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.