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000
FXUS66 KHNX 251020
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
320 AM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING A COOL ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. MEMORIAL DAY WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGH SIERRA TOWARD
EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING WITH A TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CALIFORNIA. A WESTERLY JET MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
PRODUCED LOCAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH NEAR CACHE CREEK...BUT THESE HAVE
BEEN CONFINED TO THAT AREA AND DO NOT PLAN ANY WIND HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME.

AT 09Z /0200 PDT/ THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE RUNNING MOSTLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH THE TROUGH NEARLY STATIONARY...LITTLE CHANGE IS
FORECAST IN 500-MB HEIGHTS FROM 00Z SATURDAY /1700 PDT FRIDAY/ TO
00Z SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW LIKELY WILL OFFSET THE SLIGHTLY LONGER
DAYLIGHT PERIOD AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...EXCEPT THAT AS THE
TROUGH DEEPENS THERE WILL BE BETTER SUPPORT FOR AN INCREASE IN
DESERT WINDS.

THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS MORNING IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE GFS HAVING A DRY
SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF BEING THE WETTER MODEL. BOTH MODELS BRING THE
TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF HAS
MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.

THE FORECAST IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS WITH HEAVIER WEIGHT
TOWARD THE ECMWF. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 8500-9000 FEET.
RAIN AND HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH
CHANCE POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS KINGS AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF TULARE
COUNTY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH THROUGH THE TEHACHAPI
MOUNTAINS AND THE WESTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT. PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...LINGERING
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK
ARE FORECAST TO BE 1-2 INCHES ABOVE 9000 FEET.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN FALL BACK INTO THE 70S MONDAY AS THE
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-25      102:1890     59:1906     68:1890     42:1980
KFAT 05-26      103:1974     66:1946     68:1951     40:1953
KFAT 05-27      104:1974     55:1971     69:1896     46:1998

KBFL 05-25      106:1982     58:2008     77:1982     39:1893
KBFL 05-26      107:1951     68:1998     72:1979     40:1918
KBFL 05-27      106:1974     66:1971     75:1974     42:1917

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD