Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 232348
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
348 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION...BRINGING DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH AREAS OF FOG IN
THE VALLEY EACH MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
VALLEY AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS. BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW ALLOWED THICK
STRATUS (AROUND 3000 FEET THICK) TO BANK UP ALONG THE SIERRA
NEVADA...BRINGING LOW VISIBILITY AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO SEVERAL
TULARE AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILL COMMUNITIES. IN FACT...THREE
RIVERS IN TULARE COUNTY PICKED UP 0.09" IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD ENDING
AT 8 AM THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SUBSIDED LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST CLOUDY CONDITIONS REMAINING.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUED TO ALLOW
COOL AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE VALLEY AND OVER
THE FOOTHILL LOCATIONS...KEPT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM ANOTHER FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS SLOWLY
DISSIPATE.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. BY TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END
OF NOVEMBER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM
TAKES AIM AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS...BUT THE MORE
NOTICEABLE WEATHER CHANGES WILL BE OBSERVED OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE LATEST OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING WETTER FOR THE AREA ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE NAEFS PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN HAS BEEN
INCREASING RUN TO RUN AS WELL AS NCEP`S RELATIVE MEASURE OF
PREDICTABILITY FOR THE WEEKEND TIME FRAME...ADDING TO FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE. AS OF NOW...FORECAST CERTAINTY IS MEDIUM WITH AT LEAST
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN AT SOME POINT FROM
SATURDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE MODEL TRENDS AND NAIL DOWN TIMING LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ALONG THE VALLEY FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS SUNDAY.

IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS IFR CIGS AND AREAS MVFR CIGS
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE
VALLEY. LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG DEVELOPING WITH LOCAL IFR
VISIBILITY 06-18Z.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ON MONDAY NOVEMBER 24 2014... FIREPLACE/WOOD
STOVE BURNING STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO...
KERN... KINGS... MADERA AND TULARE COUNTIES. FURTHER INFORMATION IS
AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-23       78:1932     49:2010     58:1926     27:1947
KFAT 11-24       78:1939     49:2010     54:1896     29:1947
KFAT 11-25       76:1933     45:1972     54:1985     27:1898

KBFL 11-23       81:1907     50:1954     53:1977     22:1931
KBFL 11-24       87:1917     49:2010     59:1926     22:1931
KBFL 11-25       79:1914     45:1954     55:1910     25:1931
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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