Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
FXUS66 KHNX 181313
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
513 AM PST Wed Jan 18 2017
.SYNOPSIS...A series of Pacific storm systems will track eastward
across the state through Monday, bringing periods of rain and
mountain snow to the region.
The next batch of storm systems due to impact our area continue
their eastward progression this morning. The lead system is
currently moving into the California coast, and associated
precipitation is nearing our northern zones. As mid and high
clouds increase ahead of the system and the weak ridge aloft
slides east, fog development conditions become less favorable
this morning. HJO is currently reporting 1/4 mile visibility but
most ASOS sites are at at least 1 mile or more and dense fog is
not expected to be prevalent this morning.
Short-term hi-res models show the approaching precipitation area
continuing it`s southward push and swinging into our area by late
morning. The bulk of the precip with this 1st system moves through
later this afternoon through tonight. Thursday will see additional
showers behind the passing front and as the cold pool moves
overhead, the airmass will be destabilized sufficiently for a
slight chance for thunderstorms during the afternoon.
All of the incoming storm systems will be colder than the recent
atmospheric river events experienced in central California. Snow
levels will start out near 8000 ft today but will drop to around
6000 ft tonight and around 5000 ft by Thursday. Snow accumulations
of 1-2 feet are expected in the higher elevations of the southern
Sierra by Thursday afternoon, and a Winter Storm Warning remains
in effect through Thursday afternoon. Gusty winds will accompany
the passing frontal system this afternoon and tonight and a Wind
Advisory has been issued for much of the San Joaquin Valley and
the Kern County Mountains.
Little break in the action is shown before the next impulse brings
additional precipitation Friday and Friday night. Snow levels will
lower to around 3000 feet with this system and there could be
accumulating snow on the mountain passes of Kern County.
Additional strong winds could affect the passes and desert with
this passing system Friday evening. Weak ridging will bring
another slight break from the precip on Saturday, then the next
colder wetter wave brings more precipitation to our area for the
first part of next week. This could bring accumulating snow into
the foothills and the Kern county mountain passes and possibly
some snow in the higher elevations of the desert. A total of
around 1-2 inches of rain is possible from this series of storms,
with 3-5 inches in the foothills and near an inch in the desert.
Several feet of additional snow is expected in the high Sierra by
the time these storms pass.
In the San Joaquin Valley, areas of MVFR in mist and haze with local
IFR between through 20Z Wednesday. In the southern Sierra Nevada,
increasing areas of mountain obscuring IFR in low clouds and
precipitation after 13Z Wednesday becoming widespread IFR by 20Z
Wednesday. Areas of MVFR in rain will spread southward through the
region during the afternoon. VFR conditions will otherwise
prevail over the central CA interior.
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Wednesday January 18 2017... Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning
Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno... Kern...
Kings... Madera... Merced and Tulare Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
Winter Storm Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM PST
Thursday ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR THE CAZ096-097.
Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Thursday