Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
FXUS66 KHNX 231011
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
311 AM PDT SUN OCT 23 2016
A pacific storm system will slide into the region today, bringing
a cooling trend and a slight chance of showers over the next 48
hours. Another storm system will bring a better chance for rain
and higher elevation snow in central California by late next week.
IR satellite shows some cool cloud tops across the desert this
morning. This area will be the initial focus precipitation today
as subtropical moisture continues to slide into the area. Mid
levels will saturate by this afternoon, which should be enough
for some showers even with the dry low levels.
The eastern pacific trough will slide towards the west coast over
the next 36 hours. This will draw the subtropical moisture north
into the Sierra. The cold front associated with the closed low
looks like it will stall out just as it enters our north border.
So, the focus of precipitation will be across Merced County and
the Sierra on Monday.
On Tuesday, the closed low will slide northward which will allow
for some shortwave ridging to build over the area. However,
another pacific storm system is on its heels which will keep some
moisture fetch over the north portions of the area Tuesday.
Wednesday however, that second system will dig south across the
central pacific, which will amplify the ridging. This will allow
temperature to bounce back up a couple of degrees.
By Thursday, that system will edge towards the west coast, while
picking up some subtropical moisture. The trajectory of the system
and the available moisture it will bring will potential make this
a good precipitation maker for the area.
The longevity of the precipitation chances will be dictated by
an Aleutian Low dropping down into the Pac Northwest by weeks end.
That low could keep some moisture in place into the weekend,
though confidence in how much influence this system will have on
the area remains low.
Scattered showers spreading northward across the Kern County desert
will produce areas of MVFR ceilings after 15z this morning. MVFR
ceilings with areas of IFR and terrain obscurations will spread
over the mountains of Kern and Tulare Counties after 00Z Monday.
Southwesterly wind gusts 30-40 knots can be expected across the
higher terrain. VFR conditions can otherwise be expected over the
central California interior during the next 24 hours.
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.