Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 021703
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1003 AM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STEADY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEK WHILE DRY...WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
24 HOUR TEMPERATURE TREND AT 16Z INDICATE SEVERAL STATIONS IN THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY RUNNING A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED FEW HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON SINCE WARMER
LOCATIONS COULD MOVE INTO TRIPLE DIGIT TERRITORY. NO OTHER
UPDATES.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 208 AM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WELL WE JUST EEKED UNDER 100 YESTERDAY...BARELY. SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AT 99 IN THE SJV. 24 HR CHANGE IS NIL ATTM AND AM STICKING WITH
UPPER 90S AGAIN TODAY. BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE IS COMING IN A BIT
COOLER THAN OBSERVED...SO WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS UP.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS BLOCKED RIGHT NOW WITH REX BLOCK OVER THE EPAC
AND WESTERLIES REMAINING WELL NORTH. ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION
ATTM IS PROVIDING STEADY TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. FLAT RIDGE
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
PAC NW BY TONIGHT.

THE ENSEMBLE GFS MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC ECM H500 PROGS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY WED. THE TROUGH
REMAINS POSITIVELY TILTED ACROSS NRN CA AND CONNECTS WITH WEAK
UPPER LOW FEATURE IN THE EPAC BY WED. WEST TO SW FLOW OVER THE
AREA WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY. TROUGH TRIES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH BY FRIDAY AS A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TROUGH LIFTS BACK NORTH ON SAT AND SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND...ESP ON SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT
MONDAY BACK TO THE UPPER 90S IN THE SJV. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-02      108:1955     76:2000     77:1998     48:1964
KFAT 09-03      111:1955     71:1912     77:2003     52:1964
KFAT 09-04      107:1988     74:1912     75:1998     51:1912

KBFL 09-02      110:1955     77:1946     78:1998     50:1913
KBFL 09-03      112:1955     78:1985     78:1998     50:1913
KBFL 09-04      109:1988     77:1936     77:1950     49:1915
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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