Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 012308
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
408 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...A COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SIERRA NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROUGH NEARLY STAGNANT OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC HAS SHIFTED THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SLIGHTLY EAST...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
SIERRA NEVADA CREST. A FEW SHOWERS FORMED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
FROM TULARE COUNTY NORTHWARD...HOWEVER NO STRIKES OF LIGHTNING
WERE OBSERVED AS OF 2 PM.

OTHERWISE...THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENED AROUND 800 FEET (CURRENTLY
NEAR 2,000 FEET) BETWEEN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND FOR THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 6 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...WITH READINGS IN THE 90S. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM
TO THE 100 DEGREE MARK GENERALLY FROM FRESNO SOUTHWARD.

A COOLING AND DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALL OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE EAST...WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION BY MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL FALL BETWEEN 2
AND 4 DEGREES EACH DAY INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY AND FOOTHILL TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...BETWEEN 2 AND 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SLOWLY NUDGES NORTH INTO THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY AUGUST 2 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956
KFAT 08-03      110:1946     80:1976     78:2014     55:1953

KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
KBFL 08-03      112:1938     81:1953     81:1974     53:1912

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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