Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
FXUS62 KILM 250738
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
338 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016
A ridge of high pressure will expand across the Carolinas bringing
uncomfortable levels of heat and humidity this week. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Monday...A massive, persistent and very dry ridge
aloft will continue to contribute to above normal levels of heat
today. At the surface the Bermuda high will continue to dominate,
bringing a very moist and hot south to southwesterly flow to the
region for today and tonight. Temperatures will again climb above
normal, with highs in the mid 90s most locations and in the lower
90s near the coast. With dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s we can
expect heat indices this afternoon to range from 100F to 104F.
Bone-dry upper levels and a lack of sufficiently strong forcing
will greatly limit development of convection today. The best we
can expect is the odd sea-breeze forced pop-up shower or
thunderstorm focused along the sea breeze boundry. However,
consider coverage will be too sparse to warrant mentionable pops.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Monday...A hot and humid airmass will continue to
dominate the eastern Carolinas as a broad, flat ridge prevails aloft
and the Bermuda high persists at the surface. A thermal trough will
strengthen each afternoon over the central Carolinas. Both days will
feature afternoon heat index values approaching or exceeding 105F,
and it is likely that heat advisories will be issued for at least
portions of the forecast area on both days. For Tuesday, very dry
air aloft and lack of strong forcing will limit convective coverage
to very isolated storms during the afternoon and early evening,
primarily along the sea breeze front and near the inland thermal
trough. Somewhat greater convective coverage is possible on
Wednesday and Wednesday night as slightly deeper moisture may be
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM Monday...Deep ridge of high pressure will slip
farther to the east and weaken as the weekend approaches. This
will allow h5 heights to slip and temps to lower slightly, as
well as, reduce the subsidence and dry air aloft giving way to
increased chance of shwrs/tstms heading into the latter half of
the weekend and early next week. A broad northern stream mid to
upper trough will reach down from the Upper Great Lakes pushing a
cold front east into the Carolinas by Sunday. This will help to
tighten the gradient flow and increase SW winds, and, also produce
deeper moisture and greater support for more widespread
convection heading through the latter part of the weekend into
early next week. Initially expect only isolated convection along
sea breeze front and Piedmont trough Thurs and Fri. Then pcp water
values increase back up above 2 inches late Sat into early next
week. Temperatures in the mid 90s on Fri will drop down slowly,
aided also by increasing clouds and convection. Heat indices will
remain high in a very humid air mass, and should reach above
advisory criteria Thurs and possibly Fri aftn.
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 06Z...High confidence in predominately VFR through the valid
TAF period. Included some MVFR fog for inland terminals as expecting
some patchy ground fog right around daybreak. Little to no
convection is expected tomorrow due to an increasing subsidence
inversion as ridge builds overhead in the mid to upper levels. South
southwest flow is forecast, mainly below 10 kts. Winds will back
during the night to SW and veer during the day due to influence of
sea breeze to S...close to 18Z at coastal terminals and 21z inland.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon convection
Tuesday through Friday may create periods of MVFR/IFR. Otherwise
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Monday...There will be little change over the waters
through the near term. The Bermuda High over the western Atlantic
will keep winds primarily from the SW at 10 to 15 kts with gusts
to 20 kts, with seas of 2 or 3 ft today and tonight. Winds will be
mainly southerly this afternoon near shore and gusty as the
afternoon sea-breeze circulation sets up.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Monday...High pressure over the western Atlantic
will continue to keep winds from the S to SW at 10 to 15 kts
through the period, with seas of 2 or 3 ft. Expect gusts up around
20 kts each day.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM Monday...Bermuda high pressure and the piedmont
trough inland will maintain the south to southwest flow through
the period. Gradient flow will increase out of the SW heading into
the weekend and persistent S-SW flow 10 to 15 kts will increase
slightly into the weekend as gradient tightens. The winds will
back and increase slightly each aftn due to sea breeze and
piedmont trough inland. Seas will basically remain in the 2 to 4