Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 021058
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
655 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
OTHER THAN TWEAKS TO THE INITIAL CONDITIONS. FOG IS NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS TIME YESTERDAY. ANY FOG/STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT IS HELPING TO GENERATE A SCT-V-BKN DECK OF
MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THESE CLOUDS WILL HINDER FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN SOME LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE ANOTHER MORNING WITH FOG
AND STRATUS IN ON TAP. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. COULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT TO SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER TODAY BUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS
RATHER RESTRICTED...AND A WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A
PLAYER. H5 RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY TAKE CONTROL TONIGHT AND WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND HAVE LOWERED MINS A CATEGORY. FOG
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY. I HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ADDRESS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE. FOR SATURDAY...GUIDANCE HAS WARMED DRAMATICALLY AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED EVEN FURTHER WARRANTING A MARKED
INCREASE IN HIGHS FOR SATURDAY...NOW APPROACHING 80 FOR MOST AREAS.
MUCH COOLER SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS AND HIGHS NOT
ECLIPSING THE 70 DEGREE MARK. MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST
VIA IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WITH 40S CWA WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY ON THE
ORDER OF 10-15 KNOTS. LATE IN THE DAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REALIGNS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS DROP DOWN TO
AROUND TEN KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG WILL MIX OUT AFTER 13Z WITH ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WILL BE REPLACED WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH SCATTERED CU IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS EXPECTED. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY FRI MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF TSTMS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT OF NOTE WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
AND SEAS AROUND 2 FT INITIALLY.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE
TODAY AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND HOWEVER...SPEEDS
SHOULD BE 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICK UP IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH A 15-20 KNOT RANGE BY DAYS
END. THE FLOW WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASE BY A COUPLE OF KNOTS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SATURDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SATURDAY WILL SEE WINDS SUBSIDE AND TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST. SEAS DIMINISH FROM 3-5 FEET LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY TO 2-4 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE VERY TRANQUIL
AS THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS BASICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
BE THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE. THERE IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE RIDING
DOWN IN THE MAIN FLOW THAT MAY PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT THE LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TO
THE COASTAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. BY WEDNESDAY EXPECT LOWER
80S FOR HIGHS WITH 60S FOR LOWS ALONG THE COAST WITH 50S INLAND.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43







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