Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 061127
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
627 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...RISING CLOUD CEILING HEIGHTS...DRY
ADVECTION...LACK OF RADAR ECHOES AND NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
INDICATIVE OF ANY PRECIPITATION HAS LED ME TO BELIEVE WE ARE
COMPLETELY DONE WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THIS FORECAST UPDATE
REMOVES ANY PRECIPITATION (FROZEN OR OTHERWISE) FROM THE FORECAST.
06Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT CLOUDIER AND I HAVE MADE SOME EDITS TO
SKY COVER FORECASTS TO REFLECT THIS. DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM
FOLLOWS...

LAST NIGHT`S COLD FRONT IS WELL OFFSHORE AND COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
DRAIN SOUTHWARD AS 1039 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS COLD AIRMASS EXTENDS VERTICALLY UP TO
ABOUT 4000 FEET AGL...TOPPED OFF BY YESTERDAY`S WARM MOIST AIRMASS
STILL STREAMING OVERHEAD ON SOUTHWEST WINDS.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO 32 DEGREES OR BELOW BY DAYBREAK
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAKE CITY THROUGH CONWAY TO NORTH
MYRTLE BEACH. FORTUNATELY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY
ENDED. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS NEUTRAL TO VERY WEAK UPGLIDE ALONG
THE SATURATED 295K THETA SURFACE...APPROXIMATELY 6500 FEET AGL OR
800 MB...THROUGH ABOUT 8 AM. THIS COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SLEET
SPRINKLE ACROSS COASTAL SE NORTH CAROLINA BUT WITH NO POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATION.

OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL TAKE THEIR TIME CLEARING ALONG THE COAST TODAY
AS A BAND OF UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
THE AL/MS GULF COAST. THE I-95 CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL ALMOST SUNSET FOR
CLEARING TO ADVANCE DOWN TO THE BEACHES. WORKING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH 39-42 NEAR
THE COAST TODAY...WITH 41-44 EXPECTED FARTHER INLAND.

TONIGHT CLEAR SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DEVELOP. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL EXTEND
DOWN TO JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE GROUND BY DAYBREAK
PRODUCING A STRONG BUT INCREASINGLY SHALLOW NOCTURNAL INVERSION. MOS
CONSENSUS LOOKS GOOD FOR LOWS WITH MID 20S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH SUNDAY REACHING OFF SHORE BY SUN NIGHT. A
VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL FLATTEN OUT SAT INTO SUNDAY...LEAVING A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. OVERALL EXPECT A DRY WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AIR
MASS WILL MODIFY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CUTS OFF EARLY SATURDAY WITH
FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND HEIGHTS RISING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS. THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO BRING
TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL BY SUNDAY. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL
REBOUND NICELY IN BRIGHT MARCH SUNSHINE...FROM MID 20S UP TO THE MID
50S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT...WINDS WILL BE
NEAR CALM AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS FALL INTO
THE MID 30S IN MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. BY SUNDAY
TEMPS WILL JUMP BACK TO  THE MID 60S IN A WEAK RETURN FLOW AND
CONTINUED SUNSHINE.

BY SUN NIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MID TO UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THROUGH TEXAS. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH. AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALOFT
IT WILL PRODUCE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST. SOME OF
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL ADVECT INTO THE CAROLINAS IN
DEEPER W-SW FLOW ALOFT AS EARLY AS SUN NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAKING IT INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY BUT NOT
COUNTING ON ANY PCP AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS. PCP WATER VALUES WILL RISE FROM UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH SAT MORNING UP AROUND A HALF INCH BY SUN NIGHT AS SOME OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL...IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN THROUGH TEXAS AND THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL SHARPEN THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND PRODUCE AN
INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. CLOUDS
AND PCP WILL INCREASE THROUGH MON INTO TUES AS THIS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST RIDING ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE HINTING AS A WEAK WEDGE ON TUES WITH WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST. AS THIS FIRST LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TUES NIGHT...THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
DOWN OVER THE WESTERN GULF KEEPING A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW WITH RIDGE
BUILDING UP ALONG SE COAST. THIS MAY KEEP LINGERING BOUNDARY AND
FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY MAINTAINING UNSETTLED WEATHER
OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MAY HELP
TO PUSH MOISTURE SOUTH AND DRY COLUMN OUT WED NIGHT INTO THURS...BUT
MAY LEAVE SOME CLOUDS AND PCP TO CONVEY UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL EXPECT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF PCP THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH OF A DIURNAL RANGE
IN TEMPS...KEEPING READINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR HIGHS
AND WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW DROPPED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
WITH GUSTY NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS AT ALL LOCATIONS. A VFR STRATOCU
CEILING IS EXPECTED AT MOST AREAS...COULD BRIEFLY GO MVFR FOR AN
HOUR OR SO AT THE START OF THE VALID TIME. HIGH PRESSURE ILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN. THE GRADIENT RELAXES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LESS
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ENDS. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH INCLEMENT WEATHER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...WINDS DID INCREASE OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...REACHING NEARLY 40 KNOTS IN GUSTS AT THE BUOY EAST OF
CHARLESTON AND 34 KNOTS UPSTREAM AT CAPE LOOKOUT. LOCALLY...THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY REACHED 37 KNOTS A COUPLE HOURS AGO AND THE
MESONET STATION ON BALD HEAD ISLAND HAS RECENTLY GUSTED TO 28 KNOTS.
I WILL LEAVE THE GALE WARNING UP FOR THE POTENTIAL OF CONTINUING 35
KNOT GUSTS WELL AWAY FROM SHORE. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS UNCHANGED. DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...

THE ONLY OBSERVATIONS SUPPORTIVE OF GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE WELL
OFFSHORE AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY AND THE BUOY EAST OF
CHARLESTON SC. THAT BEING SAID...MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT THAT THE
STRONGEST POST-FRONTAL WINDS OF THIS EVENT ARE COMING UP IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. FOR
THAT REASON I WILL LEAVE THE GALE WARNING UP...BUT MAY BEGIN
TRIMMING IT BACK WITH THE 630 AM FORECAST PACKAGE.

LAST NIGHT`S FRONT IS WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT.
COLD AND DRY NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD END ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING.

SEAS AS HIGH AS 9 FEET OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY WILL BEGIN
DIMINISHING LATER THIS MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS UP TO 6 FEET WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
LATE DAY EAST OF GEORGETOWN...AND INTO THIS EVENING EAST OF CAPE
FEAR.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH SUNDAY REACHING OFF SHORE BY SUN NIGHT. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SAT INTO SUN...LESS THAN 10
KTS. THEREFORE SEAS WILL FALL STEADILY ON SAT FROM 2 TO 4 FT SAT
MORNING DOWN TO LESS THAN 3 FT SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A PINCHED GRADIENT MAY DEVELOP THROUGH LATE
MON INTO TUES AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WHILE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON INLAND. THIS COULD PRODUCE A
BRIEF RISE IN NE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS AND SEAS UP NEAR SCA
THRESHOLDS IN OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT MON INTO EARLY MORNING TUES.
OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS MAINLY
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ250-252-254-     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43




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