Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 281043
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
642 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS POSTED FOR EARLY SUNDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THROUGH MID WEEK.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...A STRONG 500 MB DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING
THE COAST THIS MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDS AND A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE BAND OF SHOWERS NOW APPROACHING THE COAST. I HAVE UPDATED
POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT IN THE WILMINGTON/WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH CORRIDOR
FOR THE NEXT 60-90 MINUTES...WITH RAPID DRYING BEHIND THIS LINE. LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP IN THE ONGOING COLD ADVECTION AND
THIS ACTIVITY IS DEFINITELY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. THIS SHOULD BE AN
ALL-LIQUID EVENT WITH FREEZING LEVELS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 2000
FEET.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WEST VIRGINIA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS (AS
LOW AS -6C TO -8C) SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON. ADVECTION SHOULD TURN NEUTRAL TONIGHT AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AFTER THIS MORNING`S CLOUD COVER FOLLOWS THE
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE OFF THE EAST...EXPECT SOME THIN STRATOCUMULUS
TO DEVELOP AT THE TOP OF A DEEP DAYTIME MIXED LAYER. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 52-57 RANGE FROM LUMBERTON TO
GEORGETOWN...WITH MOST AREAS TOPPING OUT AROUND 55 TODAY.

TONIGHT WE ARE UNFORTUNATELY EXPECTING A FREEZE TO OCCUR IN ALL BUT
SOME BEACHFRONT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE
NUMBERS WERE A BIT COLDER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND MAY BE 1-2 DEGREES
TOO COOL NEAR THE COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT DIE DOWN
BELOW 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. FARTHER INLAND THERE SHOULD BE
SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT WINDS BEFORE DAYBREAK WHICH MAY ALLOW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S. A HARD FREEZE LIKE THIS COULD
BE VERY DAMAGING TO UNPROTECTED EARLY-BLOOMING PLANTS. GARDENERS AND
FARMERS SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THIS LATE
SEASON FREEZE AND TAKE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS.

RECORD LOWS FOR TONIGHT (SUNDAY MORNING MARCH 29)
WILMINGTON          31 IN 2011
FLORENCE            28 IN 1966
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH 31 IN 2013

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE 5H TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST TO
START THE PERIOD WILL EXIT EAST...LEAVING A FLAT/PROGRESSIVE MID
LEVEL PATTERN IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD WILL
SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. SUBTLE LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW COMBINED WITH STEADY INCREASE IN HEIGHTS/THICKNESS
WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND...THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATER
MON. THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...SO ALL OF THE DYNAMICS REMAINS DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHICH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO TAP INTO. WHILE TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS IT IS STARTING
TO LOOK MORE AND MORE LIKE A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WILL SEE
SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. WILL GO AHEAD AND NUDGE POP UP BUT
WORDING WILL REMAIN IN THE CHC CATEGORY. TEMPS MON WILL BE WARMER
THAN SUN WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A WARMER START
TO THE DAY RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
DURING THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD TUE WILL SHIFT OFF THE
COAST WED AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT AND
THU AS IT HELPS LIFT THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE
AREA NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE WAVES OVERALL IMPACT ON THE AREA
WILL BE LIMITED OWING TO ITS WEAK NATURE.

GFS/ECMWF ARE ONCE AGAIN AT ODDS WITH HANDLING THE NEXT COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT/CORRECT
WITH RECENTLY...INCLUDING THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS THIS
WEEKEND AND THE COLD FRONT LATER MON. AS SUCH HAVE LEANED
FORECAST IN FAVOR OF THE GFS SOLUTION. COLD FRONT APPEARS QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE ONE TO START THE WEEK...THOUGH IT WILL HAVE
SLIGHTLY MORE COLD AIR. THE PARENT LOW IS DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THE FRONT LACKS DYNAMICS. SOME PRECIP IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND NARROW BAND OF
DEEP MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED SILENT POP FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO TUE CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT AND REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING. AT KFLO/KLBT FAIRLY CONFIDENT FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL BE VFR BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS.
CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPO MVFR SINCE RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS CIGS WILL BE VFR BUT
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPO MVFR.

VFR EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL BE NW AND
GUSTY AT TIMES. BY LATE AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH THE SHORT
FETCH ON NORTHWESTERLY (OFFSHORE) WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO WEST VIRGINIA BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ASIDE FROM SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING NORTH
OF CAPE FEAR...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS WEATHER MODELS...MAKING THIS A HIGH-
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

SEAS REMAIN AS HIGH AS 6 FEET AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY BUT HAVE
DIMINISHED TO AROUND 4 FEET AT THE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND CAPE FEAR
HARBOR BUOY. 2 FOOT SEAS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM THE SUNSET BEACH
BUOY. THESE READINGS VALIDATE THE LATEST WAVEWATCH MODEL WHICH IS
THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...DECREASING OFFSHORE FLOW SUN WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY SUN NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST.
RETURN FLOW STARTS INCREASING LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE A
SOLID 20 KT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KT MON AFTERNOON AND A SHORT
DURATION SCA MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED AT A LATER DATE. FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS MON EVENING WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING MON NIGHT.
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION OR GRADIENT POST FRONT WILL
KEEP WIND SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 2
TO 3 FT SUN AND 2 FT OR LESS SUN NIGHT WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT MON
ON THE BACK OF INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE
FLOW MON NIGHT WILL KNOCK SEAS BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON TUE WILL DRIFT
OFFSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO THE GRADIENT
DURING THE PERIOD WITH OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE
EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWEST WED AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. LIGHT WINDS AND CHANGING DIRECTION WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3
FT EACH DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR



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