Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 132042
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
342 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. AS MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM REACHES THE AREA...COLD AIR
LOCKED IN ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN PERSISTING INTO
TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT. COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -10C TO -13C RANGE.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT FROM THE
NORTH...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING CORRELATE TO LOWS IN
THE MID TEENS. LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 850
TEMP SCHEMES WHEN CONSIDERING A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...FOUS
DATA...AND THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS. ON TOP OF THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY SUN MORNING. LATEST
FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA WHICH IS 5 DEGREES. SO FOR NOW HAVE NO PLANS TO ISSUE A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY BUT TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
FORECAST OR WINDS A COUPLE MPH HIGHER COULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF
5 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BLADEN...ROBESON...AND
MARLBORO COUNTIES.

AS FAR AS RECORDS GO IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY RECORDS WILL BE
BROKEN OR TIED TONIGHT. THE ONLY SITE WITH A SLIM CHANCE OF SEEING
A RECORD TIED WOULD BE NORTH MYRTLE BEACH.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/17F FORECAST

FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/18F FORECAST

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/19F FORECAST

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VIRGINIA SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT WEDGES ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WEDGING. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENING
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON...BUT WHAT THEY MAY BE DOING IN ERROR...IS
BRINGING THE TROUGH INLAND TOO QUICKLY AND DISLODGING THE WEDGE.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION NMM AND ARW SEEM TO HAVE A MUCH MORE REALISTIC
DEPICTION. THUS EXPECT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR TO HANG ON LONGER
INLAND MON.

THIS WILL BECOME PROBLEMATIC...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE ON
MON AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. DRY AIR WILL STRUGGLE TO HANG ON
BELOW 800 FT SUN NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO EVAPORATE PRECIPITATION
BEFORE IT IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE SUN AND THEN THICKEN SUN NIGHT. CLOUDS SUN NIGHT ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH BELOW FREEZING ALONG
THE COAST. COLDEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
TEMPS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE A DEGREE OR TWO AS
WE APPROACH MON MORNING.

AS THE PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT MON MORNING...WE EXPECT IT WILL BE
ALL RAIN FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY EYF TO DILLON TO JUST
NORTH OF THE FLORENCE-DARLINGTON COUNTY LINE...WE WILL INCLUDE THE
RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHERE GROUND TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE
BELOW FREEZING AFTER THIS ARCTIC BLAST. ACCRETION IN THIS AREA IS
FORECAST...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO BE LIGHT...A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. AS THE PRECIPITATION GROWS STEADIER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WARMS THE COLUMN AND ERODES THE LAST OF THE
WEDGE...MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WE EXPECT LIQUID RAIN THROUGHOUT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MON AND MON NIGHT MAY REACH UP TO AROUND A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH WITH MORE RAIN ON TUE.

HIGHS SUN SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...JUST MID AND UPPER 30S
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWEST TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND
IMMEDIATE COAST. AGAIN...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RISE OVERNIGHT. A
SIGNIFICANT TEMP GRADIENT IS EXPECTED MON WITH HIGHS NEAR THE COAST
IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. AS YOU MOVE BACK INTO THE COLDER AIR...
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID 40S AND IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE TO GET THERE AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE MORNING FOR THE NW TIER. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE
BALMY BY RECENT COMPARISONS...MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS HOLD AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
N-NE ON TUESDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER VA IN THE MORNING WITH DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY VEERING AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE
WEST. THE SATURATED COLUMN IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE WIDESPREAD
TUES MORNING BUT WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTN FROM WEST
TO EAST. THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL COME TOGETHER EARLY TUES TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE AND POSSIBLY HEAVIER RAIN.

ESSENTIALLY WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGH LATE TUES BUT WINDS WILL BACK
A BIT AND MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS PASS ACROSS THE AREA AS ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SLIPS BY TO OUR NORTH TUES NIGHT. LATEST
MODELS KEEP ALL PCP WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF AREA. THE
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH
LEAVING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON
WED. ANOTHER BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE MAIN MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST
ALLOWING DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THURS INTO
FRI. AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST SOME DEEPER COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR THURS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPS FOR THURS
BEFORE HEIGHT RISES WILL KICK 850 TEMPS BACK UP FOR FRI INTO
SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT UNSEASONABLE WARMER WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON THURS. GUIDANCE
SHOWING TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S MOST DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ON FRI AND WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP
WITH THIS FRONT BUT MAY SEE INCREASED CLOUDS AND SOME COOLING BEHIND
IT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UP WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE
UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER A BIT MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND FAIRLY LIGHT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE NEVER REALLY
MATERIALIZED AND BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO NOT THINK IT
WILL DO SO. AS A RESULT WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SCA FOR ALL
ZONES. COMBINATION OF TIGHTENED GRADIENT AS ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES
BUILDING IN AND MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP NORTHERLY
FLOW ON THE HIGHER END OF THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. NORTHERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM BELOW ANY
HEADLINE CRITERIA WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT...LOWEST ALONG THE
BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUN AS THE CENTER
OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD...REACHING THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO E AND
SE AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SUN NIGHT. SE WINDS WILL VEER TO S
DURING MON WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROUGH AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM
THE WEST. S WINDS WILL PERSIST MON NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP
TO AROUND 15 KT SUN MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
KT DURING MON WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS MON NIGHT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS WHERE WATER TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT
MIXING. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT SUN MORNING...DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT
SUN AFTERNOON AND TO 2 FT OR LESS SUN NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD BUILD
RAPIDLY MON AND MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 6 TO 9 FT MON NIGHT...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WHERE MIXING WILL BE GREATEST. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MON AND MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY TUES WILL
WEAKEN AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE W AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH TUES. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE
ONGOING TUES MORNING WITH SEAS UP TO 8 TO 10 FT. WINDS WILL VEER
AS LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A STRONGER WESTERLY OFF
SHORE FLOW TO KEEP HIGHEST SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS BY TUES AFTN.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS IT
DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP
DOWN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WED MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SLIP BY
TO THE NORTH BUT OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND FROM THE NW TO N BASICALLY REMAINING 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WED DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
THURS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL


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