Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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484
FXUS62 KILM 270019
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
819 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate into Sunday, bringing mostly dry
weather and increasing heat. A cold front approaching from the
north may bring late day thunderstorms to portions of the area
Sunday. This front will then linger in the area for much of next
week, keeping the weather unsettled.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Surface high pressure was centered to our
south with ridge axis to our W and this high will remain at the
helm through Saturday. This ridge will get flattened as a
shortwave trough moves through the Great lakes and Mid-West,
thus allowing the flow aloft across the eastern Carolinas to
become a little more zonal tonight.

Except for some thin cirrus overnight, skies will be clear as winds
quickly diminish this eve. Dewpoint recovery will also occur quickly
this eve and we expect lows to be a category or so higher tonight as
compared to last night, mainly lower to mid 60s with some upper 60s
at the beaches.

Deep westerly flow in place on Sat. A Thunderstorm cluster is
expected to develop upstream of the central/southern Appalachians
during the afternoon. The flow should take this convection eastward,
keeping it to our NW through the daylight hours of Sat. Deep
westerly flow and rising 850 mb temps point to higher temps on Sat
with still manageable humidity levels although dewpoints will be a
good 10 degrees higher Sat afternoon as compared to this afternoon.
Highs on Sat will be in the low 90s. The seabreeze will once again
be pinned rather near the immediate coast, making its greatest
inland advancement across Brunswick County during the afternoon.
Beach temps will be in the lower to mid 80s. A breezy SW wind is
expected on Sat, 15 to 25 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Somewhat of an active period as the convergence
of a split flow at the mid levels over the Tennessee Valley
keeps a parade of shortwaves moving through the area. At the
surface a baroclinic zone will be aligned in close proximity to
the mid level pattern with an east/west boundary draped along
the Tennessee/Virginia border.

The first shortwave moves through late Saturday evening and with the
consistency of the GFS, I have increased pops for a few hours. There
will be a 12-18 hour lull in activity through Sunday afternoon
before another stronger wave moves across. I have tweaked pops to
show Sunday morning mostly dry with the pops relegated to more of an
afternoon/evening scenario. There is some severe potential with the
activity so please refer to the Storm Prediction Center`s Day 2 and
3 Convective Outlooks. Warm temperatures will continue with a down
slope/west to northwesterly flow aloft with highs a couple of
degrees either side of 90 and lows in the upper 60s to lower
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Primary headline for the extended forecast
period is `unsettled`, as a low-amplitude but broad upper trough
translates slowly east across New England and the Mid-Atlantic
seaboard. Near the base of the trough, phasing impulses from the
southern jet stream over top the Gulf ridge will allow a series of
whisking disturbances to bring TSTM chances much of the upcoming
week when coupled with late May and early June heating and an active
afternoon sea breeze boundary. Temperatures however will remain
slightly above normal as the thermal influence is exerted more by
the Gulf and SE states upper ridge. No shortage of column mositure
or dry mid level caps to impede convection with PWAT values of 1.5
to 1.75 inches next week, so what convection does form will be
capable of dumping good rain amounts. Storm motion generally will be
from west to east, so all locations will have a good chance of
rainfall and TSTMS at one point during the upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 00Z Saturday...High confidence for VFR conditions across
all terminals during the 24 hr TAF Issuance period.

Any leftover diurnal cu will dissipate around sunset. Occasional
thin cirrus will move across the local terminals tonight thru
Sat. Few to scattered diurnally driven cu at 4.5 to 6.0 ft will
develop by midday Sat and persist thru the day. A mid-level s/w
trof or vort within the WNW to NW flow aloft, located well
upstream early Sat, will approach Central NC by Sat evening.
Thunderstorm activity will accompany this s/w trof which could
affect inland terminals beyond the 245 hr issuance period.
However, could see a bkn mid to upper level clouds reach the
inland terminals by the end of this fcst period.

The sea pinned sea breeze should quickly dissipate this evening,
leaving WSW winds at 5 kt or less thru the overnight. WSW winds
will pick up to around 10 kt by midday across all terminals,
with gusts aoa 15 kt across the inland terminals during the
aftn and evening. The sea breeze will affect the coastal
terminals and will see SSW-SW winds increase to around 15 kt
with g20+ kt during the aftn and early evening. Winds should
remain active just enough overnight to keep fog from becoming a
problem. The gusty WSW-WNW winds during today helped evaporate
plenty of the standing water from the previous days rains.

Extended Outlook...Brief MVFR/IFR conditions possible mid to
late Sat Evening for LBT and ILM terminals due to thunderstorms.
MVFR/IFR conditions possible all terminals in scattered showers
and thunderstorms Sun Evening, and again late Mon Night through
Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...The approach of the new moon and perigee will
increase the tidal ranges and this will bring higher high tides and
lower low tides through the weekend. Abnormally low water levels
will quickly recover for the remainder of the afternoon. The
seabreeze will keep SW winds in the 15 to 20 kt range into this eve,
highest across the near shore waters. As the boundary dissipates
later this eve and overnight, wind speeds will diminish to 10 to 15
kt and the direction will back to westerly. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft.
We expect winds and seas to be similarly driven by a healthy
seabreeze on Saturday with the strongest winds, up to 15 to 20 kt in
association with the afternoon and eve seabreeze circulation.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Expect a mostly southwest and fairly brisk flow
at times through the period. There may be a brief interval of
westerly winds in the wake of shortwaves both early Sunday and
Monday. Speeds will be 15-20 knots initially with a good low level
jet and back off a bit for Sunday and early Monday with more of a 10-
15 knot range. Significant seas will mostly be 2-4 feet with a
possibility of a few five footers early. The spectrum will lean more
toward the lower end at the end of the period as well.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...SW winds this period 15 KT or less except
higher afternoon gusts associated with an active sea breeze. Sea
heights generally a 2-3 foot range this period, along with isolated
to scattered inshore TSTMS mainly in the late afternoons and evening
as storms push off land over the 0-20NM waters. Troughing inland may
bring the highest winds of 15-20 KT sustained Wednesday. Mariners
should get a radar update before heading out this period as there
will be a chance of storms each day.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...DCH



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