Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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669
FXUS62 KILM 291353
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
953 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN
FROM THE NORTH. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MAY
BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS RAPIDLY BECOMING TOO
DIFFUSE TO LOCATE AS NORTHWEST WINDS ARE OBSERVED ALL THE WAY DOWN
TO THE GEORGIA COAST CURRENTLY. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE ADVANCED
AS FAR SOUTH AS FLORENCE AND CONWAY...BUT SINCE THEIR DEPTH IS
LESS THAN A THOUSAND FEET AND VISIBLE SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWS THE
EDGES BURNING OFF...I DON`T THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL SURVIVE MORE
THAN ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS BEFORE YIELDING TO DEEP MIXING AND STRONG
LATE APRIL SUNSHINE.

COMPARING ALL THE VARIOUS MODELS 12Z WIND FORECASTS VERSUS REALITY
IT APPEARS HIGH-RES AND RAPID UPDATE IS THE WAY TO GO TODAY. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD TURN ONSHORE AT THE BEACHES WITH A WEAK
SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...DELAYED AN HOUR OR TWO FROM ITS
TYPICAL GENESIS TIME DUE TO THE BACKGROUND NORTH WIND.

FOR TEMPERATURES...IT APPEARS THE 06Z GFS IS MUCH TOO COOL AND ITS
OUTPUT IS LARGELY BEING IGNORED. THE 06Z NAM PLUS HIGH-RES NMM AND
ARW VERSION OF THE WRF WERE BLENDED WHICH GIVES UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE REGION...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS
MOST OF SE NORTH CAROLINA. THE BEACHES SHOULD INITIALLY WARM TO
80-83 BY NOON BUT WILL THEN COOL BACK INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY SAT...WITH WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS BECOMING
SW-WSW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL
ENABLE MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FA BOTH IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS. AT THE SFC...RIDGING WILL TEMPORARILY PUSH SOUTHWARD
FROM THE NE STATES ACROSS THE FA EARLY SAT. ITS RIDGE AXIS BY SAT
EVENING WILL EXTEND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FROM ITS CENTER WHICH
WILL HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST FROM THE NE STATES. A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO RETURN NORTHWARD...ACROSS THE FA
SAT NIGHT TO NORTH OF THE FA DURING SUNDAY. MODELS THERE-AFTER ARE
SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT IN HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND DEEP THE MOISTURE
BECOMES ACROSS THE FA. EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL S/W TROUGHS OR VORTS
WILL SPORADICALLY PUSH ACROSS THE FA SUN THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. THEIR
DYNAMICS AND AN UNSTABLE ATM WILL YIELD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM LATE SUN MORNING THRU DAYBREAK MON. AM CONCERNED
THAT POPS EXHIBITED BY THE MODELS ARE RUNNING TOO HIGH ACROSS THE
ILM CWA. HAVE TWEAKED THEM LOWER TO 50 PERCENT OR LESS...AND KEPT
THE HIGHER POPS NORTH OF THE ILM CWA. AS FOR TEMPS...STAYED
ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO LOWER POPS
AND LESS CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ON SAT. THE ONSHORE AND VEERING WINDS
THIS PERIOD...NE-E SAT VEERING TO SE-S SUN...WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS
IN CHECK ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE
AROUND A BROADER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MON INTO TUES. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST
AIR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS/TSTMS ON MONDAY. A
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN MON NIGHT PUSHING THIS FRONT SOUTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE ECMWF IS
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH DIGGING SHORTWAVE AND DOES NOT PUSH THE FRONT
SOUTH...BUT INSTEAD IT LINGERS OVER NC/SC AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG IT PRODUCING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS
KEEPS THE FRONT WELL SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BRINGING CLOUDS AND PCP BACK IN THE FORECAST
FOR TUES NIGHT INTO WED. THEREFORE GFS MAINTAINS A DRIER AIR MASS
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA LATE MON INTO TUES WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS WETTER WEATHER FOR TUES. WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND
LOWER END POPS MON NIGHT INTO TUES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS POINT.

BY WED A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVES
WITH A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH WITH
EXTENSIVE MVFR/IFR BEHIND IT. THE CIGS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH INTO
KLBT AND KFLO...BUT SHIFTING SE AT A SLOWER PACE TOWARDS KILM AND
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. MODEL MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE
OF IFR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE AT KFLO/KLBT/KILM. BEST CHANCE
OF VFR THIS MORNING WILL BE AT KCRE/KMYR. CEILINGS ARE THIN...AND
WITH STRONG INSOLATION WILL SCOUR OUT QUICKLY BY MID-MORNING WITH
ALL TERMINALS BECOMING VFR. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME NW-NE AT 5-10
KT OR LESS THIS MORNING. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXING
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE TODAY...WITH WINDS
BECOMING 140-170 AROUND 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMS THIS AFTN.
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE DAYS INSOLATION COULD
PRODUCE FEW/SCT CU...OTHERWISE SKC TO PREVAIL INTO THRU THIS
EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE CU DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD BE SOME FOG ISSUES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KFLO/KLBT...AND AT KCRE DUE TO
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH A RETURN FLOW. HAVE NOT ADDRESSED IN TAFS
ATTM

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO
THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...THIS MORNING`S WEAK COLD FRONT IS RAPIDLY
DISSIPATING AS NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA COAST. LIGHT NORTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH NOON FOLLOWING BY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST. NEAR THE
BEACHES WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE BY MID AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD BE DELAYED AN HOUR OR
TWO FROM ITS TYPICAL GENESIS TIME BY THE BACKGROUND WIND FIELD.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET WE MAY SEE THESE HEIGHTS DIMINISH BY A
FOOT BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...SFC RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES...WILL PARTIALLY AFFECT THE ILM NC
WATERS SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF NE-E 15 KT MINI SURGE
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL OCCUR SAT NIGHT THRU
SUN WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE E-SE THROUGHOUT SAT NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY SUN...RESULTING
IN WINDS FURTHER VEERING TO THE S TO SW SUN THRU SUN NIGHT. THE
SFC PG WILL TIGHTEN...RESULTING WITH 10 TO 15 KT SPEEDS...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SUN NIGHT. FOR SAT...SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 2 TO 3
FT WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 3 TO 5 SECONDS ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND AN EASTERLY GROUND SWELL
AT 8 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS ELSEWHERE. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 5
SECONDS WILL DOMINATE SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...AND BUILD TO 3 TO
5 FT BY DAYBREAK MON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
SHOULD DRAG THIS COLD FRONT INTO THE WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT THROUGH TUES AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THIS FRONT MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUES
POTENTIALLY KEEPING A MORE VARIABLE FLOW BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS ON TUES. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4
FT WILL REACH UP TO 4 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS MON AFTN AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT BUT SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN SLOWLY IN NORTHERLY FLOW
HEADING INTO TUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR



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