Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 251202

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
802 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Above normal temperatures will prevail much of the upcoming
week as high pressure offshore brings southerly winds. A series
of low pressure systems will bring a chance of rain Monday into
Tuesday, and again late next week.


As of 8 AM Saturday...Temperatures this morning range from
around 50 well inland to around 60 at the beaches. Still looks
to be a warm day, with highs in the mid 70s most places, with
mid 60s at the beaches. A few spots in our SC counties could see
upper 70s. Previous discussion follows:

A southerly return flow will maintain an a warm and slightly
more humid air mass across the eastern Carolinas. An extensive
field of strato cu over the waters was getting pushed onto the
coast in this deep SE flow...mainly south of Cape Fear. Aloft,
the mid to upper ridge will continue to slip farther east
allowing for a SW flow in the mid to upper levels to throw some
higher clouds over the Carolinas. The combination of these two
will produce partly to mostly cloudy skies across the area into
the morning. Other cu will develop with the heating of the day
and convergence along sea breeze as it develops and pushes
inland through the day. There even may be a stray shower, but
not great enough chc to warrant putting it forecast.
Temperatures will remain about 5 to 10 degrees above normal with
the afternoon high temps in the mid 70s and overnight lows in
the mid 50s Sat night. A cool sea breeze will keep the coast
cooler and will push inland through the afternoon.


As of 4 AM Saturday...Mild and moist regime this period as a
surface low tracks from the middle Mississippi valley into the
Great Lakes, prompting moderate warm air advection. Overall
rain chances will remain low-end, but better on Monday as a
short-wave approaches the area from the west. QPF-wise however
do not expect a great deal of rain. Heating inland may offer hit
and miss decent amounts from convection, and instability indices
warrant inclusion of TSTMS Monday as column moisture deepens.
Each afternoon a robust sea breeze will spread cooling into the
coastal interior, with an uptick in gusty winds by the coast.


As of 4 AM Saturday...Surface low over the Ohio valley Tuesday
will track NE into New England by Wednesday, propelling a cold
front across the Carolinas, and a chance of showers and a few
TSTMS. The front will scoot offshore Wednesday. High pressure
will very briefly build in from the NW, but a progressive
southern stream system will snap us right back into a warm air
advection pattern Thursday, with a storm and decent rainfall
potential late Thursday into Friday. It appears right now high
pressure will build in just in time to bring a drying and slight
cooling trend into Saturday. Temperatures overall to run a
little above normal for late March this period.


As of 12Z...VFR is expected at all the terminals.

Expect scattered to broken cumulus and stratocumulus, 3500 to
5000 ft, to develop for the inland terminals while more or less
persisting for the coastal terminals. There will be a tendency
for the lower clouds to erode in the wake of the stabilizing
seabreeze at the coastal terminals. Can not rule out a spotty
shower, but not enough of a chc to be included in any TAF.

Extended outlook...Flight category restrictions are possible in
stratus/fog during the early morning hours Sun and in isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms Sun through Tue. Expect VFR
conditions once cold front moves through on Wed.


As of 8 AM Saturday...Light southerly winds with seas of right
around 3 ft this morning will show little change through the
near term. Forecast good to go with no changes. Previous
discussion follows:

A S to SE return flow 10 kts or less will continue across the
waters through the period. With temps rising into the mid 70s
this afternoon, a decent sea breeze will develop helping to
produce a spike in the on shore flow over the near shore waters,
as well as a slight backing of the winds to a more SE on shore
direction. Seas will show a slight rise through the period with
the southerly push but will basically remain between 2 and 4 ft.

As of 4 AM Saturday...Smooth sailing this period with southerly
winds 15 kt or less and seas 3 feet or less. An isolated shower
or a TSTM is possible Monday as a disturbance passes just to
the north of the area. SE swell waves of 2-3 feet every 10-11
seconds will move landward born from a surface low NE of the
Bahama chain, but no advisories are expected, only that sea
heights will be slightly elevated with given winds and up to 4
ft outer portion. Light to moderate chop can be expected this
period. Sea fog Monday near shore is not out of the question.

As of 4 AM Saturday...Showers and a few TSTMS can be expected
Tuesday as a frontal system crosses the waters. This will also
cause winds to go flat into Wednesday with very weak high
pressure or a back door cold front, but resuming an onshore
component into Thursday, as another low pressure approaches
from the west. Seas 3-5 feet in a combination of SE swell and
local wind waves. A small craft advisory or exercise caution
statement may be needed by Thursday evening as the low nears
for gusty southerly winds and elevated seas.





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