Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 021950
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
350 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT SOUTHEAST LOCATIONS BEFORE EXITING LATER TONIGHT. A FEW
MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY
ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA...WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES
ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING THE
SURFACE LOW. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN A
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF THIS CONVECTION WILL
IMPACT MAINLY FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
LATER TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL END AS THE MAIN BODY OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING SHIFTS FARTHER EAST.

A SOMEWHAT COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH UP AROUND 50 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
UNDER WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
IN WEAK LIFT GENERATED BY A DISTURBANCE ALOFT. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT
TRAVELING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGHS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF
SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AT
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S
FA WEDNESDAY. WILL INCLUDE LKLY POPS EAST AND HIGH CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEST. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER DURG THE AFTN
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH.

UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THRU THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST
WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S.

SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING
THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND CONTINUES TO TAKE IT OFF TO OUR
EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME
MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO
BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER DURG THE DAY AND A
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH REMNANTS OF SFC FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE REGION HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN LIFTING...AND
SHOULD BECOME VFR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY...AND
IS LIKELY TO AVOID THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR AT OR NEAR THE AIRPORTS DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND
THUS SHOWERS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT...DROPPING TO THE MVFR
CATEGORY AT ALL TAF SITES...AND POSSIBLY BELOW 2000 FEET. MVFR
VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT ON
TUESDAY...BUT PERHAPS NOT VERY QUICKLY...AND MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
LAST INTO THE LATE MORNING.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...SWITCHING FROM WESTERLY / NORTHWESTERLY TODAY TO
NORTHERLY / NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS



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