Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 170909
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
409 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the Plains this morning will build
into the Tennessee Valley. Southwest flow around this high will
result in a gradual warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Low clouds and flurries across the region at the start of the
period will gradually decrease from the north through the
morning. Have continued to use the RAP 925mb RH field as a guide
for when low clouds will diminish.

Some of the remnant clouds from the band off of Lake Michigan
will pass across the region this afternoon along with an
increase in mid and high cloud. Generally used a blend of
guidance for highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Surface high will build south of the region resulting in
southwest flow through the period. Gradient looks strong enough
to keep winds going through the night, so despite partly cloudy
skies at worst, have not let temperatures drop too
substantially, although forecast is on the cool side of
guidance. Expect a good deal of sun on Thursday, but with snow
pack, believe warm up will be retarded some. So did not go quite
as bullish as some guidance in warming temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Tranquil conditions will start out the long term with a gradual
warming trend.  With increasing moisture cannot rule out some light
drizzle or rain Saturday into Sunday.  More widespread rain will
move into the region late in the overnight hours Sunday night into
the day on Monday.  There are still some timing differences with this
system, however models are in agreement that precipitation will
occur and therefore went with higher precipitation chances.  As the
cold front moves through and colder air filters in there will be the
potential for some snow before precipitation tapers off.  In
addition winds will also pick up with the frontal boundary and wind
gusts of 35 to 40 mph will be possible with decent CAA.  Tuesday
will feature a return to dry conditions.  Superblend looked too high
with temperatures for Tuesday with cool airmass in place and
therefore lowered temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR deck across the region is forecast to clear from the north
during the first half of the TAF period. However, there is
considerable uncertainty with how quickly this will occur.
Initial forecast uses RAP 925 mb RH to time clearing.

Once lower clouds clear, it appears that conditions will remain
VFR through the rest of the TAF period, but again there is
uncertainty whether lower stratocumulus could try to redevelop
during the day. It seems a bit more likely that clouds with
bases above 3000 ft will translate across the area in the
afternoon. There will be mid and high clouds spreading across
the region as well. West winds will increase up to 10 kt during
the day and then back to southwest after 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Saturday afternoon into
Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...



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