Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 221757
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1257 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will be possible on Thursday when a warm front is
forecast to develop across Northern Ohio. A strong cold front
will push through late Friday, bringing widespread showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Rain associated with an upper low to our south is pulling e
into the Appalachians. Behind it, was a trailing area of
drizzle. The drizzle will affect mainly eastern areas for the
next couple of hours before it also pulls in the Appalachians.

Despite some peaks of sun in the nw this early this morning,
overall conditions should be cloudy to mostly cloudy for the
rest of the day.

Backed high temperatures this afternoon down a couple of
degrees as the latest guidance is indicating that the added
cloud cover will retard warming a little.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Mainly dry weather is forecast for tonight, though isolated
showers may develop ahead of the next boundary dropping into
Ohio from the northwest. For Thursday, the boundary will lift
back north as a warm front ahead of deepening low pressure,
with more showers possible in increasing isentropic lift over
the front. Northern half of the FA will be under higher threat
for showers, being closer to the warm front.

Highs in the upper 60s will be more than 20 degrees above
normal, with record highs at Columbus and Dayton attainable.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Vigorous jet energy to carve out a trough over the Rookies and
western US. Negatively tilted shortwave pivoting northeast around
this mean trough will induce a deepening surface low that ejects
from the central plains into the mid MS VLY Thursday night and into
the Great Lakes Friday.

East-west stalled surface front to lift north as a warm front with a
chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm mainly across the
northern counties Thursday night. Temperatures will be very mild
with lows Thursday night from the lower 50s north to the upper 50s
south.

Breezy conditions will exist in the warm sector Friday when
temperatures approach record values in the upper 60s and
lower/middle 70s. Associated strong surface cold front to sweep east
through ILN/s FA Friday night.

MUCAPES values of 500 to 1000 j/kg are fcst late Friday afternoon
into Friday night ahead of this surface front. Numerical models
differ on exact track of surface low but continue to show strong
fropa Friday night in the Ohio Valley. Sherbs3 shows a a good signal
for low cape/high shear, strong squall line potential with the
possibility of damaging winds. Will continue to highlight this
threat in the HWO product.

In the wake of the front breezy conditions are likely in the CAA
pattern later Friday night into Saturday. A few showers will be
possible Saturday especially across west central Ohio due to the
passage of the mid level trof. These showers may transition or mix
with a few snow showers for a brief period prior to ending Saturday
evening. Surface high pressure to build in Sunday providing dry
weather and more seasonable Temperatures.

Model solutions then diverge on the timing and placement of systems
in quick zonal flow. Have allowed a slight chance of a shower late
Sunday night into early Monday with a front dropping south through
the area. A better threat of rain showers looks to occur late Monday
into Tuesday, as this front returns north as a warm front with a
surface wave of low pressure developing in the central plains. More
uncertainty in the forecast next Wednesday when the GFS brings a
front through ILN/s FA early, while the ECMWF develops a deep low
that tracks through the Great Lakes with the front coming through in
the afternoon. Will trend the forecast toward the ECMWF allowing for
warmer highs in the warmer sector with a chance of a thunderstorm.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR cigs have hung stubbornly across across the tafs this
morning, but this wasn`t unexpected. Improvement is expected
from the sw this afternoon as is shown in the latest satellite
loop, which is showing the low clouds breaking up across central
KY.

MVFR cigs will reach CVG/LUK in the next couple of hours,
followed by VFR before 00Z. Farther north the MVFR cigs will
reach DAY/ILN before 00Z, but CMH/LCK not until late tonight.

The low level moisture never really goes away and as a cdfnt
approaches and temperatures cool back towards the dewpoint,
cigs in the south will drop back to MVFR then iFR for some spots
aft 12Z. Scattered light showers will be possible with the
front. Another round of fog will develop overnight, but
guidance is showing that it might not be as dense as today.

IFR/MVFR clouds will linger in the morning again, before
beginning improvement.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Friday and Friday night.
MVFR ceilings and vsbys are possible Saturday and Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures
Date     CVG           CMH                DAY
Wed 2/22 71(1922)      70(1930)           69(1922)
Thu 2/23 72(1985/1996) 66(1906/1985)      68(1985)
Fri 2/24 72(1930)      72(1961)           67(1930/1961)

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio/Sites
NEAR TERM...Sites
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Sites
CLIMATE...


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