Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 271804
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
204 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER TONIGHT...BECOMING POORLY DEFINED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
FRIDAY....ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF HUMID AIR NORTHWARD. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO ALONG THE TAIL END OF A SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH MICHIGAN.
MEANWHILE AN MCV WAS TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO THE SOUTH. QUESTION REMAINS
WHETHER STORMS WILL FILL IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS AS MCV HEADS
INTO THE REGION. HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL OCCUR
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS WAITING UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY FOR MORE LINEAR FORCING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH.
STORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH SLOWLY
WEAKENING SHEAR ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BEEN EMPLOYED.

AS MID LEVEL S/WV EXITS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...TRAILING WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. ONGOING
CONVECTION EARLY ON WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WANING
IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT MOVES AWAY...INSTABILITY
DECREASES...AND THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A LITTLE MORE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THIS AREA WHILE POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE REMAIN REMAIN
ON THE MUGGY SIDE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE
MID 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

FOR THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE ILL DEFINED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO INCH ITS WAY BACK TO THE NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS
DRY. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN PEAK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW TO SET UP.
MOST MODELS ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET AND HAVE GONE WITH THIS SOLUTION ATTM.
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO THE ENTIRE REGION. FORECAST AREA
WILL BE BETWEEN AN MID LVL RIDGE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
A MID LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN
LACK OF ANY WELL DEFINED DISTURBANCES AT THIS TIME...HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS
STATE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH.

WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY
IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
POTENTIALLY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TIMING FOR BEST CHANCE. AT THIS POINT HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS EARLIER TIMING THINKING THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
INDIANA SHORTLY AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 00Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THREAT FOR STORMS WILL END DURING THE EVENING AND THE
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR
WORKING IN BEHIND IT SHOULD LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT KDAY AND
KCMH/KLCK. BUT FURTHER SOUTH THERE COULD BE SOME MIST/FOG AND/OR
STRATUS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON LOWER CATEGORY CONDITIONS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING. VFR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...






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