Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 011401
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1001 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY EXHIBIT DEEP MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL FORECAST HIGHS
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE GFS...AND THE
ECMWF THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...THEN MAINLY THE ECMWF THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE MID MS
VLY.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM OUR
REGION...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE NAM-
WRF SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO OUR NW CWFA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAW DEWPOINTS ON
THE MODEL ARE IN THE LOWER 70S VERSUS MUCH LOWER VALUES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...IT SEEMS TO
BE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH HIGH VALUES OF
MLCAPE. HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION...FOCUSING THE THREAT
FOR CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR NW CWFA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
RESULT...HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR SUNDAY. BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING (LLJ) AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH A DIGGING MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD BE POISED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN 30 AND 40
POPS FOR THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS.

ON MONDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK FORCING
WITH THE FRONT ONLY CALLS FOR 30 AND 40 POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT EAST TO WEST
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE THREAT FOR PCPN
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS SOME REDEVELOPMENT
TO OUR SOUTHWEST LATE AS A WEAK LLJ TRIES TO POKE NORTHEAST INTO
THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER GIVEN AN INCREASE
IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL SHOW MORE OF A GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO
THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS TIME HAVE
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS TRIES TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER WENT WITH THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH ONLY 70S TO LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED
VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF
THE WNW...GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...AS
THEY SHIFT FROM WNW TO SW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS



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