Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 221145
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS
INFLUENCE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATE TODAY AND PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE
INDIANA-OHIO STATE LINE BEFORE STALLING LATE TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE HIGH WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA WILL KEEP ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR ONE MORE
DAY. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS GET INTO EASTERN INDIANA BEFORE THE
DAY IS THROUGH BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT IT TO BE DRY. HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WITH LOWER CLOUDS SPREADING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND MID CLOUDS WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS COOLER MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS THROUGH. CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM BUT THAT CHANCE LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP OFF SOME IN
THE EVENING BUT THEN READINGS WILL BE STEADY OR RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT THEN THE FORCING
BECOMES WEAK. SO THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A COMPLETE LULL IN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. STAYED NEAR
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE INDIANA-OHIO LINE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
STALLING. THIS BOUNDARY BECOMES IMPORTANT BECAUSE LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST ALONG IT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE 00Z NAM WAS
AN OUTLIER IN THIS REGARD AND SEEMS UNLIKELY TO VERIFY AT THIS
POINT. AS FORCING INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP
AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
LOW BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECOMES QUITE A CHALLENGE WITH A WIDE VARIETY
OF POSSIBILITIES OFFERED BY BOTH MODELS AND MOS. SEEMS MOST LIKELY
THAT IT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD TUESDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS
THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL SET UP.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF SREF AND ECMWF 2 METER TEMPERATURES WHICH
ENDS UP FALLING BETWEEN GFS MOS AND PARALLEL GFS MOS. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH RISE IN READINGS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PASSES AND
TEMPERATURES START FALLING OFF. SYSTEM GETS PRETTY DYNAMIC SO
THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR AS
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
APPEARS THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW AND AS COLDER AIR GETS WRAPPED IN THIS WILL TRANSITION
FROM RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL RAPIDLY
DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY MUCH ONCE THE CHANGE OVER TAKES PLACE PLUS THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL BE
BREEZY/BRISK WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN LATE THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CLOUDS TO DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST ON FRIDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH BACK ABOVE
NORMAL FOR A DAY. 00Z GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THUS
CONTINUED WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN
SUNDAY WITH COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO GENERATE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. NOT SEEING ANYTHING
CURRENTLY ON RADAR. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.  THERE ARE SOME MVFR CIGS JUST SW OF THE TAF
SITES. HAVE A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KCVG...KLUK...AND
KILN THIS MORNING.

RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
GRADUALLY BE REDUCED TO THE MVFR CATEGORY. HAVE KCVG...KDAY...AND
KILN CIGS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK





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