Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 112052
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
352 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL END THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION PROVING DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWERS. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED FLURRIES WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
NORTH IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS ACRS THE NORTH TO GIVE WAY TO
CLEARING THIS EVENING BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 10
DEGREES NORTH TO NEAR 15 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY AND THRU THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAKER EMBEDDED S/W IN
THE FLOW TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. IN WAA
PATTERN IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID LEVEL S/W TO DROP
SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. IN STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA
PATTERN EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH FAVORABLE FETCH
DEVELOPING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. VERY COLD WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH 10 TO 15
MPH WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF ZERO TO 15 BELOW
ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE WIND CHILLS IN THE HWO
PRODUCT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

8H TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREE TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY. FAVORABLE FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO END EARLY WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL DROP PRECIPITATION
OVER THE ILN AREA. EXPECT SNOW TO START MONDAY...CHANGING TO RAIN
FOR MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNCERTAINTY OF
LOW TRACK AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES GIVE LOWER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE ACCUMULATING
SNOW BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. DRIER CONDITIONS BY LATE TUESDAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED ON WEDNESDAY BY A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THAT COULD FORM ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRY WEATHER
IS INDICATED FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COLD SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20. WARM
ADVECTION WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. HIGHS IN THE
30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY INCREASE TO THE 40S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. IT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN 06Z
AND 15Z.

SHALLOW MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST AT
KDAY/KCMH/KLCK WHERE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND FEW FLURRIES MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TONIGHT...CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
EAST. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. CEILINGS WILL SHOW A GRADUAL DROP
OVERNIGHT FROM ABOUT 12 K FT TO 8 K FT. WITH WEAK WAA/LIFT...CEILINGS
WILL DROP TOWARD 5 K FT ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES TOWARD 12Z.

ON FRIDAY...AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. COVERAGE SEEMS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN


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