Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 271753
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1253 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST LATER SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
SATELLITE...OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. THESE
SHOULD DIMINISH BY NOON. THEREAFTER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE VERY COLD FOR LATE FEBRUARY...
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH. SOME
RECORD LOW MAXES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. THEY ARE 15...18...AND 18
AT DAY...CMH...AND CVG RESPECTIVELY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT
WINDS AND OF COURSE SNOW PACK REMAINS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WHICH WILL KEEP FROM HAVING EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT DO NOT BELIEVE
CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH OF A HINDRANCE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
PLUMMETING. SO HAVE GONE BELOW COLDER MAV GUIDANCE WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME RECORD LOWS.

HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY BUT WITH ENOUGH RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE FOR A DRY DAY. MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE OFF AND
WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM A BIT
DESPITE WEDGE OF COLDER AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. WENT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.

PRECIPITATION WILL START TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AS LIFT
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE FROM THE PLAINS AND
THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL OVERRUNNING. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING
PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND WELL INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE
ENDING. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS SNOW. WARMER AIR WILL GET PULLED
IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH SO A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER AREAS NORTH OF DAYTON MAY STAY ALL SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT.
THUS HAVE FORECAST THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THERE. ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF.

USED A MOS BLEND FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WITH THOSE READINGS
OCCURRING EARLY FOLLOWED BY SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES. STAYED
BELOW MOS ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FORECAST.
BUT THEN ALSO DID NOT DROP TEMPERATURES AS FAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. AS IT DOES RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AND THEN TRANSLATE
EAST. THIS WILL BUT THE OHIO VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL AS A STRONG INFLUX
OF GULF MOISTURE. 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS
EVOLUTION WHICH PROVIDES SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY. BUT ALL
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH ENOUGH WARMING TO MELT MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE SNOW PACK. SO THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FLOOD RISK.
AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN TO START. AND THEN THUNDER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL WHICH WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN RECENT WEEKS. DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM
TIMING IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO BE
EXPERIENCED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS STARTING TO DROP BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON THURSDAY WILL
BRING A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCT-BKN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND PERHAPS A FEW
FLURRIES AT THE KCMH/KLCK CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGH IN PLACE...WINDS WILL EITHER BE CALM
OR LIGHT EASTERLY. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS
ALONG WITH WAA ALOFT WILL SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION.

ON SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AT THE SURFACE. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN WHETHER WAA INDUCED MVFR
CLOUDS WILL FORM BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LEFT CEILINGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR FEB 28
CINCINNATI...1 IN 1934
COLUMBUS.....2 IN 1934
DAYTON......-3 IN 1934

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK
CLIMATE...





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