Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 261547
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1147 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of high pressure will settle over the Ohio Valley
today. However, an unsettled weather pattern is expected for the
weekend, with several upper level disturbances helping to bring
occasional chances of showers and storms to the area. Behind a
cold front on Sunday night, drier conditions are expected on
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dry conditions are expected across the area for most of the day.
A surface low approaches tonight along with upper support. There
are still some model differences in the exact location of this
low and subsequently precipitation coverage. Better instability
is across central and southern portions of the region. Due to
this expect thunderstorms to work into the better instability.
With this in mind went closer to the HRRR/RAP solutions which
have more coverage in precipitation north of the Ohio River and
scattered activity south of the river. An isolated damaging wind
gust or large hail cannot be ruled out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
After the shortwave has moved through the region, it is
somewhat unclear on whether or not additional storms will be
able to develop during the day on Saturday. There will
definitely be increasing low-level moisture and steepening mid-
level lapse rates, but capping and subsidence behind the
shortwave may limit this potential, at least through the
afternoon. Will keep lower-end PoPs in place, and mainly focused
in the southern sections of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A frontal boundary will be laying near the Ohio River Saturday
night, and then it is forecast to pivot northeast as a warm front on
Sunday ahead of a surface wave of low pressure. Uncertainty still
exists at this juncture on the potential timing and coverage of an
MCS to eject out of the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Have broad brushed PoPs, with
likely showers and thunderstorms currently favoring locations along
and south of the Ohio River where the axis of instability will be
favored. Damaging winds, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall will
all be a concern during this window of convection. Later Sunday
afternoon and night, surface wave of low pressure will move
northeast to the southern Great Lakes, which will eventually allow a
cold front to push eastward through our region. Again, will be
concerned with severe weather potential ahead of the cold front
along with locally heavy rainfall. Will mentioned hazardous weather
threats in the HWO.

A large upper level low will slowly track across Ontario for the
first half of the week and then weaken and lift Thursday. This will
result in generally cool conditions across the region through the
rest of the period. A couple of embedded disturbances rotating
around the upper low may bring some showers to northern zones Monday
afternoon, and again on Tuesday.  Models then diverge at the end of
the week as to how fast a cold front will push through the region.
As such, have kept a low threat for showers/storms on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR clouds have now almost completely cleared out from the TAF
sites, and some stratus / mist over northwestern Ohio is
unlikely to make it to any of the airports. Thus, aside from
perhaps a brief MVFR ceiling or visibility in the first hour of
the valid TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the day
today, with WSW winds generally at or below 10 knots.

Clouds will begin to lower and thicken tonight. It is appearing
likely that thunderstorms will move into the area some time
after 00Z, though it is not yet clear exactly where they will
move. This means that thunder (and lowered conditions) will not
yet be included in the TAFS, but at some point it will likely
need to be, once it becomes clear which sites will be impacted.
Where storms do occur, MVFR/IFR conditions are expected to
occur.

After the storms move out, some showers may persist through the
overnight and going into the day on Saturday. Ceilings are
likely to drop to MVFR, and IFR ceilings are a possibility.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Saturday,
along with a chance of thunderstorms. Intermittent chances of
thunderstorms will remain possible from Saturday through Monday
morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hatzos
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Hatzos
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Hatzos


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