Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 270025
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
725 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FRIDAY AND MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMING
TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STRATUS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SLOWLY ERODING
AS HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER DROPPING THROUGH
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREAD INTO THE REGION. SO THERE COULD
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA. THE CLIPPER WILL TURN EAST
OVER TENNESSEE. THIS WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA DRY. HOWEVER COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY DRAW LOWER CLOUDS BACK ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BEFORE
DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOWS ARE CLOSE TO WARMER GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THIS
WILL ENHANCE ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET
SOME FLURRIES DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. SOMEWHAT
ENHANCED MOISTURE PLUME BRIEFLY COMING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
BUT ONLY FELT THIS WARRANTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH FLURRIES
BEING MORE PREDOMINANT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE VARIABLE AS THE
LOWER DECK DISSIPATES THURSDAY NIGHT. BUT AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR FRIDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES STAYED GENERALLY WITHIN THE MOS
ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF DRY.  WWA WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SATURDAY.  A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE.  COLDER AIR WILL
WORK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS.
HAVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY AS
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.  PRECIPITATION COMES TO
AN END BY MONDAY EVENING.

WITH THE COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE...MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE LONG TERM WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.  SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AGAIN BY
TUESDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 40S.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  THE MODELS ARE QUITE
DIFFERENT FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE ECMWF BEING MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
WENT CLOSER TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND COOLER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BREAK IN THE MVFR STRATUS FOR THE SW TAF SITES AS THE DECK HAS
ERODED A BIT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON THE
EDGE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A WHILE FOR
KCVG/KLUK AND LESS SO FOR KILN. THEN THE NW FLOW BEGINS IN THE
07-09Z TIMEFRAME IN CAA BEHIND THE CLIPPER...ALLOWING MVFR CLOUDS
AGAIN OVER ALL LOCATIONS. A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE PASSING
THROUGH COMBINED WITH THE NW FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME THURSDAY WILL
BRING SOME MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND ALLOW FOR ESPECIALLY KDAY
TO EXPERIENCE SOME FLURRIES. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING SNOW
SHOWERS/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JDR






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