Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 190342

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1042 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

A strong cold front will push through the region late this
evening. In the wake of this front precipitation will
taper off overnight. High pressure and a much cooler airmass
will settle into the region for Sunday into Monday.


Mid level shortwave trof axis to pivot through the Great Lakes
overnight. Surface front has swept east of ILN/s FA with
deformation axis of pcpn coming through ILN/s area. This will
lead to lingering showers into the overnight hours. Thermal
fields continue to suggest that drier air works in limiting
winter pcpn to only a mix of rain and snow across the far north
prior to ending. In low level CAA pattern, strong northwest
winds of 25 to 25 mph with gusts of 35 to 40 mph will continue
to slowly diminish. With the winds expected to continue below
wind advisory criteria have cancelled the advisory.

Clouds to hang most of the night with only some partial
clearing into the far sw counties possible late. Expect lows to
range from the lower/mid 30s west to the mid/upper 30s east.


We will remain in weak cyclonic flow and low level CAA through
much of the day on Sunday as a secondary mid level short wave
pivots across the region. There will be a fetch off of Lake
Michigan but moisture will generally be limited to below 850 mb.
This could lead to a few snow showers through early afternoon,
especially across northern portions of our area. In the CAA,
expect highs on Sunday only in the mid to possibly upper 30s.
Surface high pressure will build in from the southwest Sunday
night allowing the low level flow to begin to back. This should
allow for clearing skies Sunday night with lows dropping down
into the mid 20s.


Surface high pressure will push off the the east through the
day on Monday. As we start to get into some return flow,
temperatures will begin to moderate with highs rising into the
mid to upper 40s. Short wave energy rotating across the upper
Great Lakes will help push a cold front southeast across our
area Tuesday into Tuesday night. Moisture is limited with this
so will maintain a dry forecast at this point. Highs on Tuesday
will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

We will remain in a northwest flow pattern through the end of
the week. There are some timing and placement differences
between the models with weak energy dropping down toward the
area through Friday. However, the airmass will remain relatively
dry with the next chance of pcpn not until some stronger energy
drops down from the northwest heading into Saturday.


Deep surface low pressure over Lake Erie to continue lifting
quickly northeast through the eastern Great Lakes overnight.

Showers and perhaps an embedded thunderstorm with strong
southward trailing cold front moving through the TAF sites
early this evening. IFR CIGs and vsbys possible in some of the
heavier downpours early this evening.

This pcpn will push east across the TAf sites as the front
sweeps east. As the front comes through, wind gusts up to
37 kts will be possible with winds veering to the northwest.

Mid level Deformation zone over Indiana with additional showers
will offer a chance of lingering pcpn into the overnight hours.

Will continue MVFR CIGs overnight into Sunday with improvement
expected Sunday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.




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