Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 020515
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
115 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

INDIANA WILL STAY WEDGED BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH INTO FRIDAY. NEXT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER AS IT BUILDS TO COVER ALMOST ALL OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

TUESDAY THINGS SHOULD CHANGE AGAIN. A COLD FRONT COMING FROM THE
WEST IS SHOULD CROSS THE HOOSIER STATE. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE OVER INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER WABASH
VALLEY IN VICINITY OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA. SLOW MOVING STORMS HAVE BEEN SUBSEVERE...BUT
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE SEEN 2 TO 3 INCH TOTALS
ESTIMATED FROM RADAR OVER KNOX COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTED ELSEWHERE. 02Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID
60S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE FOCUSING ON
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT. STORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY EAST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA
NEAR THE FRONT AND ALONG THE THETA-E AND INSTABILITY AXES. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL JET POINTED TOWARDS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY SHOULD ENABLE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OVER
THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS HERE...DROPPING
TO LOW CHANCE ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
PRECIP NORTHEAST OF A LAFAYETTE-NOBLESVILLE-NEW CASTLE LINE. COULD
SEE A VERY LIGHT SHOWER...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS
POINT. MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS START MOVING OVER
THE SAME AREAS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S
SOUTH. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN PROBLEM.

THE MAV POPS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE BEST THURSDAY. THEY LOOK BEST
TONIGHT...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. CONSIDERING THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION GOOD POPS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE GOOD POPS TOMORROW.

STARTING THURSDAY THE MODELS FINALLY CONVERGE ON HANDLING THE TROUGH
SO IMPORTANT TO INDIANA LATELY.  THIS SUPPORTS DRYING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER DEWPOINTS BUILDING IN.

THE DRYING IS GOING TO BE SLOW. ALL THE MODELS KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO FRIDAY. AFTER THAT THE GFS/MAV KILLS
ALMOST ANY RAIN. THIS SHOULD BE CORRECT. THE GFS TENDS TO
PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVE OVER THE NAM WITH TIME.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONSIDERING BASIC THERMAL FIELDS...THE GRADUAL
DRYING...AND RECENT BIASES... A COUPLE OF DEGREES WILL BE ADDED
TO THE MAV MAXIMUMS AND SUBTRACTED FROM THE MAV MINIMUMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NORM FOR 4TH OF JULY.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN THIS WEEK. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY TO
START AS MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY FOCUSING CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION ON DRYNESS WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THAT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BOUNDARY FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A DISTINCT TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT TO
INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED BY
INCREASING POPS STARTING MONDAY AND HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION AND BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COMING WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ON THROUGH AND DROP THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY MIDWEEK RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN SOME FORM LATER TONIGHT AT
HUF/BMG...PERHAPS AT IND. LAF LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR.

SOME SHOWERS IMPACTED HUF/BMG EARLIER THIS EVENING AND MORE ACTIVITY
ONGOING NEARBY. EXPECT THAT DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
PROXIMITY TO LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AT IND BUT THIS IS MORE UNCERTAIN FURTHER FROM THE BOUNDARY.

WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES.

STORMS MAY BE A THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT TOO UNCERTAIN FOR
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TUCEK
AVIATION...NIELD

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