Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 220811
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
411 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

High pressure is expected across the area through the early parts of
next week. A frontal system may affect the area towards the middle
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

A few showers have developed recently over southwest Ohio and
southeast Indiana. These showers may be tied to a mid level
vorticity center currently over western Ohio. Short term model
guidance suggests this feature will drift into southern Indiana this
afternoon. Not planning on any PoPs at this time, given the presence
of the upper ridge and cap above 600mb, but will keep an eye on
shower development over the next couple of hours.

Otherwise, some patchy fog is still possible through the mid morning
hours, although so far not seeing much fog out there. Low level
thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for today may be on the cool
side. Will nudge up the guidance highs a category.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday night/...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Model data suggest strong upper ridging aloft will hold across the
local area through the weekend. This will result in dry and warm
conditions through the period.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS temperature
guidance may be on the cool side over the next couple of days. Will
raise the guidance highs and lows a category or so through the
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Models agree that the first couple of days of the long term will be
dry and warm with ridging over the eastern states. Thus, good
confidence in dry weather per the blend with afternoon temperatures
in the middle and upper 80s.

After that, could see a few showers over all or parts of central
Indiana starting Wednesday as a cold front approaches and upper
disturbances move around the base of a broad Canadian trough
and through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Good confidence
temperatures will be much cooler per the blend. Should only see
highs in the lower and mid 70s by next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 220900Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 410 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

No significant changes made to the forecast at this time. Previous
discussion follows.

Brief restrictions possible in fog near daybreak...
otherwise VFR through the period.

Strong ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will
maintain dry conditions through the forecast period with limited
cloud cover. Only expect a few high thin clouds overnight and a
few diurnal CU from mid morning Friday on.

Could be a brief period of MVFR fog at the outlying TAF`s near
sunrise. Otherwise...no visibility restrictions expected.
Winds will be light through the period.  Some models indicate there
could be a little more fog late Friday night and included this in
KIND 30 hour TAF.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JH/JAS



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