Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 192311

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
611 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 340 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

Southwest flow with high pressure centered over the Southeast U.S.
will result in a warm-up through Monday. Temperatures will be well
above normal with highs topping off in the 50s by Sunday and
Monday. Meanwhile, a cut-off low will continue its track across
the Central Plains, bringing rain to central Indiana at times
throughout the short term period. Temperatures will fall a bit
behind this system in the extended period, but will still remain
above normal. Dry conditions can be expected for most of the
extended period.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 340 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

High pressure over the Southeast will result in dry conditions and
mostly clear skies tonight. This is a high confidence forecast
with no impacts. Overnight lows will be steady around 30 degrees.
Meanwhile, winds will be southwesterly at 5 to 15 mph, gusting to
25 mph at times.


.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Monday/...

Issued at 340 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

The main focus of the short term period will be the above normal
temperatures and rain chances with a low pressure system.

Warm, moist Gulf air will be pumped into central Indiana over the
weekend ahead of the next system. So, expect reduced visibilities
with fog formation and rain throughout the period. The highest
chances for rain will be from Sunday night through Monday
afternoon as dynamics strengthen along and ahead of an associated
cold front. For now though, will continue to leave out mention of
thunder. This is a moderate to high confidence forecast. The only
area that confidence is slightly lower in is thunderstorm chances.

Temperatures will start climbing into the 40s on Saturday and even
50s by Sunday and Monday with south/southwesterly flow. Overnight
lows will generally be in the upper 30s to mid 40s.


.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/...
Issued at 248 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

After an active start to the extended...much of next week should
see dry and seasonable weather with the harsher winter conditions
of late taking a breather from the region. Another warming trend
will arrive towards the end of the period ahead of a strong
weather system poised to impact the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes
late next weekend.

The strong early week system will track through the Great Lakes
Monday night into Tuesday...bringing the cold front across
central Indiana likely sometime on Monday evening. While subtle
timing differences remain amongst model guidance...confidence
remains relatively high in widespread rain diminishing to
scattered showers Monday night with a gradual transition to a
rain/snow mix or all snow showers into Tuesday as the colder air
advects into the region. Little to no accumulation is expected.

Once this system lifts out of the region by late Tuesday...high
pressure will build in and take up residence across the Ohio
Valley for much of the rest of the work week. Near normal
temperatures in wake of the frontal passage on Tuesday will
gradually warm to the upper 40s and lower 50s by Friday as upper
ridging expands into the area.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 200000z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 603 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

VFR through the overnight. Clouds will increase from the southeast
on Saturday and result in lowering ceilings, with MVFR to IFR
becoming common starting around midmorning at KBMG and heading
north from there. Fog will likely be an issue tomorrow night after
0z, so at this time it will only be in the extended portion of the

Winds will still occasionally gust at 18 to 22 kts for the next
couple of hours out of the southwest, and low level wind shear
will ramp up shortly with a low level jet moving in. Wind shear
should drop off by morning.




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