Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 020753
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST...BUT A COUPLE OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATER TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.   A CLOSED AND DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO INDIANA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH VERY COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND WEDNESDAY.  THIS UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE ON TO THE EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS OUR REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER OHIO CONTINUES MOVING EAST.  A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL PULL LOW CLOUDS SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.  DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING...BUT MODELS INDICATE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUR WAY.   WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY AS COOLER AIR SPREADS SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION.
WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS TO THE
MIDDLE 60S ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.   LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE
40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.  WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV NUMBERS TODAY
AND THE WARMER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS OUR REGION.  AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME DRYING ALOFT LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.

MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MOVE IT SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND TO INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WITH VERY
COLD CONDITIONS ALOFT...WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS AND
NEAR A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
TUESDAY AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA ON THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST ON THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO
THE WEEKEND.   FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S...BUT A
WARMING TREND WILL QUICKLY COMMENCE BY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1128 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY AFTER 15Z.

EVENING RAINS HAVE LEFT A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING AS NW WINDS SPILL INTO
INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS COMBINATION IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS ON MONDAY AMID
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG WITH LAPSE RATES FAVORABLE FOR
INSTABILITY SHOWERS. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE TAFS TOWARD
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH VCSH MENTION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...JP



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