Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 212324

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
700 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated below.


Issued at 211 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Classic Fall weather is expected this weekend with dry weather and
Seasonal temperatures.

High pressure over the plains states will build across Indiana
tonight...providing clear skies and some morning frost in rural
areas. The High will continue to dominate Indiana`s weather into
early next week. This will result in dry conditions along with
slightly warmer temperatures through the weekend.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 211 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows high pressure over
the Central Plains. Low pressure was found over eastern
Pennsylvania. This was resulting in a strong NW flow across
Central Indiana of cool Canadian Air. Satellite Images show some
lake cloud streaming off Lake Michigan and some Diurnal cu within
the broad and relatively weak cyclonic flow.

Diurnal Cu is expected to dissipate with loss of heating overnight
as ridging and high pressure to the west builds across the region.
Forecast soundings and Time height sections remain quite
dry...thus clear skies will be expected along with Ideal fall
radiational cooling conditions. With dew points poised to fall to
the mid to low 30s...Frost will be possible across the forecast
area...particularly across the rural areas. Where lows in the
middle 30s will be reached. Thus will air for clear skies tonight
along with a frost advisory for pretty much all of Central
Indiana. Will exclude Indy metro as Urban Heat Island effects
should keep temps slightly warmer...preventing frost.


.SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/...

Issued at 211 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Quiet Weather expected this period as Strong high pressure over
the central Plains is expected to build eastward across the
Indiana. NAM and GFS suggest that strong ridging will build across
the region. Forecast soundings show a dry column across the area
with strong subsidence in place. Convective temperatures look to
be unable to be reached each day. Thus will aim for Mostly sunny
days and Mostly clear nights. As the upper ridge drifts east of
Indiana On saturday and Sunday...models suggest return lower level
flow developing along with warm air advection. This will allow
temps to climb a bit each day Saturday and Sunday.

GFS suggests a weak Short wave pushing through the great lakes on
Sunday night and Monday. Best forcing remains well north of
Central Indiana...and forecast soundings never respond with
Saturation as moisture is limited. As the system passes...a weak
cold front pushes across Indiana and surface flow becomes
northerly. Thus will allow temps to cool off again for the start
of the next work week.


.LONG TERM /Monday Night Through Friday/...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was

An upper trough and surface low pressure system will bring a chance
for showers to the area mid week. Models then differ on the strength
and speed of the next system to impact on Friday. With uncertainty
high that far out, left the initialization alone.

Temperatures will be near average.


.AVIATION (Discussion for the 220000Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period.

Diurnal and lake effect ceilings will scattered by or slightly after
issuance. Saturday will see few to scattered cu. Northwest winds 6
knots or less tonight will become west and southwest 6 knots or less
Saturday. With dew points in mid 30s, do not think fog will be an




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