Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 070245
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
945 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHUNT SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF STATES
TONIGHT...REMAINING THERE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A BREAK FROM THE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES.

OTHERWISE...THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
U.S. WILL MOVE EAST...ALLOWING OUR UPPER FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL.
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BUILD
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 940 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WAS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. ALOFT
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. IR IMAGES SHOW A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...STREAMING TOWARD
INDIANA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS REACHING NEAR 1C BY 12Z SAT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN MAINLY DRY. THUS ONLY
SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE OVERNIGHT DUE TO
ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST. GOOD SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MIXING
OVERNIGHT. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG ONGOING WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH MORE. DID
DROP LOWS A BIT BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND TRENDS BUT
THESE SHOULD START SLOWLY RISING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 344 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE TO START
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
POISED TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WHICH BRINGS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WASHING IT
OUT. BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYS MUCH FURTHER
NORTH...THUS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.

WENT WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND GIVEN PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM AND MODELS SEEM TO
CONTINUE TO UNDERWHELM WITH THE WARM AIR UNDER A WAA REGIME.
OTHERWISE...STAYED CLOSE TO REGIONAL MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 150 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT ISN/T
UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY EARLY
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY EVEN 60 BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 070300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 909 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

EXPECTING VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
STAY UP AROUND 10-12 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. THINK THIS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
ANY POTENTIAL ADVECTION FOG FROM FORMING OVER THE SNOWPACK. WINDS
WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AND WILL SEE GUSTS OF 18-24
KTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. BY THE END OF
SATURDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO WESTERLY BUT GUSTS SHOULD DROP
OFF BY AROUND SUNSET. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY SOME CIRRUS LATE TONIGHT
AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS SATURDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
SOME INDICATION IN THE MODELS OF POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS SATURDAY
EVENING BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT THAT IN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MRD
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

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