Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIND 312033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
433 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR
MOSAIC AND SATELLITE LOOPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 312100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

RAISED WINDS TO 12 KNOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/MK


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.