Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 270320
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1020 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Regional 88Ds show the bulk of the precipitation which developed
earlier today has moved off into the Gulf with just a few showers
now noted along the coast over swrn LA. Water vapor imagery shows
drier air moving into the region from the north which is
corroborated by regional 00z soundings as much lower PWAT/mean RH
values are noted to our north. All of this spells a trend in
overnight POPs of slim/none across most of the nrn half to small
chances closer to the coast...to much higher over the coastal
waters. As expected, this also agrees with latest short-term
high-res runs as well.

Elsewhere, just minor tweaks at most per latest obs/trends. Update
out shortly.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 659 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
For 00z TAF issuance.

AVIATION...
Local 88Ds continue to show quite a bit of convection covering the
srn 1/2 of the forecast area, possibly impacting the srn
terminals...however as this activity is diurnal in nature, expect
it to diminish over the next few hours with loss of heating.
Forecast time-height sections not indicating much boundary layer
moisture through the overnight hours so not expecting any fog at
this time. Tomorrow appears to be a repeat of today with good
moisture closer to the coast along with a weak shortwave or
weakness aloft and daytime heating.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Weather map showing weakening frontal boundary across SE TX/S LA
this afternoon, likely along the I-10 corridor. Showers and
thunderstorms have increased in coverage over the last couple of
hours across SE TX/SW LA, with scattered coverage over the coastal
waters. This was expected with continued consistence from the
HRRR guidance this morning and afternoon. The convection expected
to continue through sunset and diminish this evening after the
loss of daytime heating.

The front is expected to slowly dissipate with a predominate
southeast flow resuming across the region by Tuesday, bringing
with it increased Gulf moisture and higher chances of showers and
thunderstorms. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms
expected Wednesday through Friday as a weak shortwave aloft
enhances lift within our region already saturated with moisture
moving in from the Gulf.

By Friday evening into the weekend, high pressure with slightly
drier air aloft is expected to diminish shower and thunderstorm
chances to near ~20% for the weekend.

DML

MARINE...
High pressure settling east of the area will provide a more
predominate east to southeast flow, with winds and seas
increasing by the end of the week. This will bring increased Gulf
moisture for increased chances of showers and thunderstorms
through Friday. By Friday afternoon into the weekend, high
pressure and drier air aloft is expected to limit shower and
thunderstorm activity.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  89  70  90 /  10  40  20  50
LCH  73  88  73  87 /  30  50  30  50
LFT  71  87  72  87 /  20  50  20  50
BPT  73  87  74  87 /  30  50  30  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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