Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 301140
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
640 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.AVIATION...
Skies are clear and winds are light... winds expected to pickup a
bit after sunrise but will remain below 10 knots... otherwise VFR
weather to hold through the day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 412 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Morning surface analysis shows weak high pressure has settled
into the area behind yesterday`s cold front. The combination of
clear skies, lower surface dewpoints and very light winds has
resulted in a cool start to the day with temperatures in the
low/mid 50s north of the I-10 corridor and upper 50s to low 60s to
the south. This cooler and drier weather pattern will persist through
the weekend as the cut off upper low centered over the Tennessee
Valley lifts to the NE and maintains NW to W flow over the area.

Model guidance remains in agreement that a longwave upper level
trough will approach the area by the middle part of next week.
Height rises ahead of this digging trough will allow for
temperatures to climb back to above normal for the beginning of
October. The ECMWF currently digs the trough further south and
depicts a greater coverage of convection with
the passage of the trough on Thursday compared to the GFS. Will
maintain the low end rain chances for the Wed/Thursday timeframe
for now and allow future runs to come to a better consensus on the
precipitation potential with the next system.

MARINE...

Gusty winds that have been occurring over the coastal waters early
this morning will decrease through the day as high pressure builds
into the region. High pressure is forecast to prevail over the
coastal waters through the weekend with light north flow shifting
to east flow by Monday. Onshore flow is forecast to redevelop by
the middle of next week as an area of low pressure approaches from
the west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  55  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  81  60  84  64 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  82  61  84  65 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  82  60  86  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT this morning for
     GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...19



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