Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 311153
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
653 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TAF ISSUANCE FOR 31/12Z.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR RULES WILL APPLY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY EXCEPT FOR AEX/ARA TAF SITES WHERE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
PREVAILS. PATCHY FOG WILL DISPERSE BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON. LEFT VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIT AND MISS ACROSS
REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE GULF SOUTH OF VERMILION
BAY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND TOWARDS THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
THIS MORNING ON LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

TODAY`S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO SPILL BACK INTO THE NW GULF REGION. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPS TO THE USUAL 30 YEAR CLIMO
RANGE OF 90 DEGREES MORE OR LESS. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
FOCUS DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS THE I-10
CORRIDOR. STORMS WILL DRAW TO A CLOSE AROUND SUNSET WHICH IS ALSO
TYPICAL FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER AS DEW POINTS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 70S... SO THE MID 60S FOR MORNING LOWS LOOK TO BE IN
THE PAST AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK.

AFTERNOON RAINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING
DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND GULF MOISTURE THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT. RAINS ARE ALWAYS HELPFUL
IN SUPPLYING MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE SOIL AS DAILY LOSSES OF
SOIL MOISTURE IS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND THAT ADDS UP
FAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  20
LCH  90  74  89  73 /  30  20  30  20
LFT  91  73  92  74 /  30  10  20  20
BPT  90  74  89  74 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...06


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