Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 270518
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1118 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
27/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST THINKING. SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACRS THE REGION...WITH VFR/LT WINDS PREVAILING
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

UPDATE...DEW POINTS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES DRIER THAN PROGGED
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. SOUNDING STILL
VERY DRY WITH NOT A HINT OF CIRRUS WHICH LOOKS TO BE HOLDING TO
THE WEST ON THE LATEST IR STLT LOOP. TRIMMED TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT.
GRIDS ALREADY UPDATED. ZONES TO FOLLOW.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. REGARDING 18Z
TAF ISSUANCE. EXCEPTIONALLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ON A STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A BIT OF CIRRUS AROUND.
THUS VFR CONTINUING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER NICE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SURFACE RIDGE
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A DRY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS OVER
HEAD. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S...WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE STRING OF
PLEASANT WEATHER DAYS GOING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF ALLOWING FOR A
WARMING TREND ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY VALUES. COULD BE
A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN WITH THE RETURN FLOW BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY EVENING. DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE RETURN FLOW...SHOULD KEEP
ANY SHOWERS FROM FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...AND WILL KEEP POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

OVER THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GET CUT OFF FROM THE
SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AREA. SOUTHERN STREAM
AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL HELP
INCREASE EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE...WITH A SERIES OF IMPULSES
EJECTING AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE
RESULT WILL BE TO BRING OVER-RIDING RAIN BACK LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY INCREASING
MOISTURE VALUES...AND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
PROVIDING SOME EXTRA LIFT.

RUA

MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA
LESSENING THE GRADIENT. A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT KEEPING LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY SEA FOG BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO POOL AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH LOW TO MID 50F DEW
POINTS NEARING THE READINGS OF NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPERATURES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A RETURN TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  43  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
KBPT  65  43  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
KAEX  61  40  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
KLFT  60  42  70  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$




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