Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 311513
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1013 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...SOME THETA TROFFING AT H7 HELPED DIMINISH THE SHOWERS
HEADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFF THE
COAST HAS EXPANDED WEST OF CAMERON. MADE SOME CHANGES KNOCKING DOWN
POPS TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING MENTION OVER THE WESTERN WATERS
THIS MORNING. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE NW AS THE FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE DFW
AREA HEADS SOUTHEAST. TEMPS LOOKING PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE DAY FOR
ALL SITES.  MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HANDLING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR THE DAY.  IN THE NEAR TERM...MCS OVER NE TEXAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AROUND
AEX THROUGH MID MORNING.  COVERAGE NEAR AEX WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH LESS ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN AIRPORTS.  ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NW THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAKENING MCS
OVER NE TEXAS. THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AT THIS TIME WE ARE REMAINING IN THE DRIER
AIR BUT THIS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE AS A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
DFW/FTW METRO-PLEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT DOWN INTO THIS REGION.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL. IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL BEGIN TO SWING IN FROM THE NW... THIS WILL SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVE. STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP US A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER AROUND OUR REGION AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. NOT LOOKING FOR AT LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS...
GENERALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND FOUR TO
FIVE INCHES. STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  89  74  87  73  90 /  30  40  50  40  40
KBPT  90  74  90  73  92 /  20  40  50  40  30
KAEX  90  69  85  70  89 /  40  50  50  40  30
KLFT  90  73  87  73  89 /  30  30  50  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

$$






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