Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 242033
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
133 PM PDT Sat Sep 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build over the region bringing
reduced winds, dry conditions and warming temperatures to the
state through the middle of next week. A upper-level disturbance
could bring cloud cover and a few showers to southern and east
central Nevada late Tuesday and WEdnesday but a more significant
Pacific Northwest trough is expected arrive late next week.
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday. Dry conditions with
relatively light winds will persist for the next few days.
Temperatures will trend upward with highs reaching the 70s and
even 80s in valley locales by Monday across much of the state.
Rising temperatures will present possible high stream flow
scenarios and local flooding as snow melts in the Rubies and to a
lesser extent, GBNP, Jarbidge and Independence ranges.
.LONG TERM...Monday night through Saturday
High pressure over Nevada and Utah results in rebounding temps and
dry weather on Monday and Tuesday. Highs will be ranging from the
upper 70s higher valleys to mid 80s to lower valleys...or above
climatology for the last week in September. Closed low circulation
that is cutoff will be centered over the desert southwest. As a
Pacific trough approaches the West Coast on Wednesday, the cutoff
gets ejected NNE toward the Canadian plains. Due to an increase
of precipitable water and marginal convective potential, the
cutoff may trigger isolated storms Wednesday afternoon over ern
Nevada as the upper low shears across Utah. The temperature will
also cool slightly with the highs in the mid to upper 70`s in the
Southwest flow increases Thursday and Friday as a Pacific trough
moves closer to the coast, perhaps pushing into the Pacific
Northwest by Friday. Expect breezy conditions both afternoons with
slightly cooler temps as high pressure ridge moves well
downstream. For Saturday the trough will continue to move inland
and continue to produce afternoon gusty winds. There will be the
chance for some showers and isolated thunderstorms each afternoon
as the trough drags some moisture northward across eastern Nevada.
The counties that would be most affected are eastern northern Nye,
White Pine, and far eastern Elko Counties.
.AVIATION...Clear and VFR conditions for all terminals for the
next 24 hours. Afternoon gusty winds possible at KEKO, KTPH, and
.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy northwest winds this afternoon will occur
across most of the state but relative humidity and recent
rainfall have allowed for reduced fire weather concerns
essentially across the northeast quadrant of NV. Low day time
relative humidity will exist across fire zone 467 and parts of
457 and 454 Saturday but winds will be even lighter than this
Current visible satellite imagery shows the most snow cover by
far on the Rubies. The building ridge over the region and
associated rise in BL temperatures will result in possible rapid
melting of the snow cover in mountain ranges, namely the Rubies. A
marked increase in flow along Lamoille Creek is expected as
snowmelt occurs over the next few days so flooding potential will
have to be watched closely.