Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 262205 CCA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WINTER STORM WILL SPREAD NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NEVADA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
HEAVIER SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND A CLEARING SKY RETURN TO NORTHERN
NEVADA ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT STRONG WINTER STORM WILL SPREAD SNOW...
GUSTY WINDS...AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

FEELS LIKE FEBRUARY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
RESTRICTED TO THE 40S, ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND NUMEROUS
SNOW/GRAUPEL SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

FRIDAY...STRONG 541 DM CLOSED LOW FROM THE PAC NW WILL BE CENTERED
OVER WESTERN OREGON BY 4 PM. LIFT, INSTABILITY, AND JET DYNAMICS
WILL INCREASE QUICKLY ACROSS NEVADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES. INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE FURTHER INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY. EXPECTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS OF SNOW OR SNOW
PELLETS (GRAUPEL) WITH LITTLE IF ANY ORGANIZED BANDING EXPECTED.
AS SUCH, ACCUMULATIONS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE LIMITED, LESS THAN
ONE INCH. ROADWAYS BELOW 6500 FT WILL REMAIN WET WITH NO IMPACTS.
NAM12 PROGS SURFACE COMPUTED CAPE OF 200-300 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF
NEVADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SO INCLUDED AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION.
SOME SNOW/GRAUPEL SHOWERS WILL BE INTENSE WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS DECREASE IN COVERAGE,
BUT WITH DEEP COLD TROUGH BUILDING IN ALOFT, SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THICK CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING RELATIVELY MILD, IN THE UPPER 20S.

SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE COLD TROUGH CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH, WITH
12Z ECMWF PLACING ITS 545 DM LOW FROM SAN FRANCISCO TO NEAR DEATH
VALLEY BY 4 PM SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW/SNOW PELLET
SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN, DRIVEN BY
INSTABILITY, SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA SHOW LITTLE IF ANY
ORGANIZATION, KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS AND TRAVEL IMPACTS LIMITED.
NAM12 AGAIN COMPUTES SURFACE-BASED CAPE OF 200-400 J/KG, SO
ANOTHER THUNDER MENTION IS WARRANTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS, THE GFS MODEL HAS BEEN
HINTING AT FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND DEFORMATION INCREASING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 50. FOLLOWED THE GFS IN THE GRIDS, WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN LANDER, SOUTHERN
EUREKA, NYE, AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A GENERAL VALLEY SNOWFALL OF 3-6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN
THESE ZONES DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
POSSIBLY REQUIRED. NOT THE GREATEST AGREEMENT FROM 12Z ECMWF, WITH
THAT MODEL FOCUSING ITS HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL NEAR TONOPAH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AT ANY RATE, INCREASED POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA, WHILE DECREASING THEM ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA, AS THE PARENT LOW SINKS SOUTH TOWARD LOS ANGELES. LAST TIME
WE TRIED THIS, THE STORM CONTINUED TO DIG TOO FAR SOUTH, TAKING THE
HEAVY SNOW TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA. SO, CONFIDENCE A LITTLE SHAKY ON
CENTRAL NEVADA HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MEANDERS NEAR LOS ANGELES, BUT
FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW ACROSS
WHITE PINE AND ESPECIALLY NYE COUNTIES. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA, BUT CONTINUED QUITE BRISK FOR THE FIRST
DAY OF MARCH, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
BRISK NE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TURNER/99


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. FOR SUNDAY EVENING
A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES AS THE TROF
AXIS MOVES INTO EASTERN NV. NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. MODELS DIG THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM DUE SOUTH
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CA BY 00Z TUESDAY. SNOW
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS
ENDING TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING A
RIDGE INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR MOSTLY CONDITIONS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT THURSDAY. JH/87

&&

.AVIATION...SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NV OVERNIGHT SPREADING SOUTH
TO CENTRAL NV BY 12Z FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES FRIDAY AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/87/87


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