Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 262142
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
235 PM PDT Tue Jul 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Well above normal temperatures through Friday with highs
in the upper 90s to low 100s. Moist unstable air moves up into east-
central Nevada later this week for the return of isolated
thunderstorm activity. Thunderstorms drift up into portions of
Northern Nevada on Saturday...and are then confined to east-central
and northeastern Nevada Sunday and Monday. Temperatures cool a few
degrees this this weekend and into early next week but remain
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Hot and dry will continue through to Thursday across
most of NV. The temperatures will be in the upper 90`s to low
100`s across most valleys on Wednesday and Thursday with a heat
advisory remaining in effect for central to southern NV. Influx of
substantial monsoon moisture is expected to start on Thursday.
Intense daytime heating will produce some cumulus buildup across
primarily White Pine county today and wednesday. With moisture
from the monsoonal push on Thursday isolated dry thunderstorms
are possible in White Pine and Northern Nye Counties.

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through next Tuesday. High temperatures
remain around 10 degrees above normal through Saturday as high
pressure slowly builds up from the desert southwest. Moisture
sliding up under the ridge will combine with weak to moderate
instability over east-central Nevada on Friday for increased
afternoon cloud build-ups and some isolated thunderstorms. Any
storms that develop on Friday will be relatively dry...with QPF
amounts expected to be less than 0.05 inches. Isolated
thunderstorm activity drifts a little further north and west on
Saturday with temperatures cooling a few degrees. Central
highland areas may see up to 0.10 inches of precip on Saturday
with the areas further north and west seeing less than 0.05 inches
of rain in any storms that may develop.

Trough energy digs down into the Pacific Northwest Sunday and
Monday which will help push the moist unstable air over central
Nevada a little further off to the east...with lingering afternoon
and early evening thunderstorms over eastern Nevada. On Tuesday
the trough over the Pacific Northwest is expected to push east
through Oregon and Idaho which will bring slightly cooler air to
Nevada...along with slightly higher winds to portions of northern
Nevada.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR continues at all sites through the forecast
period.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Hot and dry conditions will continue through
Thursday. Relative humidity values will steadily improve during
the next several days as deeper monsoon moisture works its way
into the state from the south. Nighttime recoveries will improve
over the next several days across the eastern half of the state
but minimum RH values will likely remain below 15 percent until
late Saturday and Sunday. Atmospheric moisture and instability
appears to be sufficient late Thursday into Friday and across
fire zones 455 and 457 for isolated dry thunderstorms. Dry
thunderstorms are expected to expand farther north and northeast
over the weekend encompassing all fire zones by Saturday. If
monsoon moisture increases enough, could see a transition to wet
thunderstorms mainly in zone 455. Also, storm motion will remain
on the low side so residence time of convection over a particular
area will have to be considered.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday for Northern Lander County
and Northern Eureka County-Northwestern Nye County-Southern
Lander County and Southern Eureka County-White Pine County.

Heat Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday for Northeastern Nye County.

&&

$$

99/96/96/99



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