Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 282214
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
214 PM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
AREA...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEVADA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
THROUGH SHORT TERM PERIOD. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS KEEP THE CWA DRY TONIGHT AND EXPECT MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HAVE BACKED OFF POPS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS PRECIPITATION SEEMS MAINLY CONFINED NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CWA. THEN HAVE INCREASED POPS SATURDAY EVENING OVER HUMBOLDT
AND ELKO COUNTIES AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE SAGGING SOUTH FROM IDAHO. INCREASED POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER NORTHERN NV AND WEST CENTRAL SUNDAY WITH THIS
BAND PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECT TO DIMINISH FROM
THE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS RIDGE REBUILDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD EXPECT MILD AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...AS TIME
ELAPSES EXPECTING THE RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN WITH PACIFIC ENERGY
TRACKING TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN. THE GFS HAS THE H5 LOW MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AND EXITING THE
SILVER STATE VIA JACKPOT. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 TO 18 HRS SLOWER
AND A LITTLE COOLER WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ALBEIT WITH A
SIMILAR TRACK. THESE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WILL IMPACT THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND THE ONSET AND OFFSET OF QPF. STAY TUNED
FOR DETAILS...WITH THE PACIFIC LOW EXPECTED MID WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALL
TERMINALS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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