Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 242159

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
159 PM PST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...The next winter disturbance will bring more light
snow Saturday with a stronger system expected to affect the state
late Sunday and Monday. Drier conditions along with warming
temperatures move into the region for the middle of next week.


.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday. A trough off shore northern
California will create a mainly zonal flow into Great Basin
through Saturday with limited moisture and instability. Light
snows and cold temps will cover most of the region with the
exception of the region around Tonopah. Flurries possible there
but not expecting accumulations. Elsewhere, a few inches in the
mountains possible but valleys less than two inches total through

A short ridge pops in Saturday night into Sunday as the old trough
drags out past Ely to the southeast.

Starting Sunday night a more significant trough digs southeast
along the northwest coast into the Basin with much colder air
aloft. 500 mb temps drop to the mid -30s C over northern and
eastern Nevada. If it were warmer at the surface, there would be a
strong chance for thunderstorms. With surface temps below
freezing, LI`s still drop to near zero during Monday
morning/midday but CAPEs are well below 100 for the most part. The
nature of the snow could change to showers OR northeast Nevada and
eastern Nevada might see periods of enhanced snow (bordering on
moderate at times). Hesitate to include even a slight
chance/isolated thunder for Monday at this time but will need to
watch this for tomorrow`s and Sunday`s model runs and real-time

Highs in the 20s, lows in the singles/teens with a bit of a warm
up Sunday night but only because of clouds, not warm advection.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through next Friday. The long term
period starts out unsettled as a low pressure trough envelopes
much of the CONUS. However, the models are showing the trough to
be progressive enough that dry conditions could win out for most
of next week.

Monday night through Tuesday evening. A broad trough of low
pressure will be enveloping the western CONUS as it expands east.
There is still some energy associated with the system and several
inches of snow could result from the left-over moisture in a cold
northerly flow aloft. Weather may end abruptly after 00z Wednesday
if the ECMWF model is correct, advertising a slightly speedier
trough exit. High temperatures will range from the mid 20s to the
mid 30s. Low temperatures will range from the single digits to the

Midnight Tuesday through Friday. For most areas, this could turn
out to be an extended dry period. However the caveat is that there
will be very weak post-frontal ridging, attenuating toward a
zonal flow aloft. So, probably at least the OR/ID border areas
will eventually succumb to a dirty flow and pick up some moisture.
High temperatures will generally be in the 30s. Low temperatures
will range from the single digits to the teens.


.AVIATION...New system approaching from the west. Patchy middle
level ceilings will begin to form over mainly KWMC/KEKO/KELY and
continue to drop into Saturday becoming MVFR at the three sites.
Should remain VFR at KTPH but drop close to ridge top level. Light
snow will fall periodically at KWMC/KEKO/KELY with VCSH at KTPH.
Winds generally less than 10 knots. Temperatures remain below
freezing so all precip snow. Expect mountain obscurations at all
sites and en route. Note...some areas still flooded, especially
around KWMC.


.HYDROLOGY...The lower Humboldt River reach continues to flood.
The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain is just below Moderate Flood
Stage and appears to be in decline. The Humboldt River at Comus is
above Moderate Flood Stage but is subsiding. The morning report
from Winnemucca is that the water is still rising per the staff
gauge reading along the Melarkey Street Bridge...18 feet, 11
inches. Thus, minor to moderate flooding can be expected all
along the reach from Battle Mountain to the Humboldt/Pershing
County line for another couple days at least. As far as other
sites along the Humboldt River, Carlin and Palisade are both
showing a weak diurnal fluctuation and are just below flood stage,
which indicates downstream conditions at Battle Mountain, Comus
and Winnemucca may extend into next week. No other issues are
noted at this time.




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