Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 171000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
200 AM PST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Patchy fog across northern NV this morning, with warm
and dry conditions this afternoon across the region. Warmer on
Thursday with increasing winds. Late Thursday afternoon and
evening valley rains move in from the west, with snow levels
lowering to valley floors Thursday night into Friday. Cooler with
periods of unsettled weather Saturday on into next week.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday. Patchy fog across northern NV
this morning, generally in areas that had a little rain on
Tuesday. Warm and dry today as high pressure builds in across the
region. Warmer still on Thursday with increasing winds ahead of an
approaching frontal system.

Precipitation is expected to move into western Humboldt County by
Thursday afternoon, and gradually spread east-southeast across
northern and central NV into Friday. Some variations in model
guidance today verses yesterday. First off, the upcoming storm is
looking a little wetter with roughly a quarter to a half inch of
QPF for most locations. Secondly, the trough is digging slightly
with recent model runs, resulting in a slight slowing to the
timing of the associated frontal passage. And lastly, the amount
of QPF that falls as rain just ahead of and along the frontal
boundary verses the amount of QPF that will fall as snow post-
frontal is still uncertain, and as always dependent on elevation.
As such, timing of rain changing to snow as well as storm total
snow amounts at any given location continues to be uncertain. For
now, continue to ballpark snow amounts below 5000 foot elevations
to generally a trace up to 2 inches, with 2-6 inches of snow for
the 5-7K foot ranges, and 6-12 inches above 7000 feet.

.LONG TERM...Friday night through next Wednesday.

Long term models remain in fairly decent agreement with the
evolution of long term features. The overall pattern evolution
remain active through the weekend and through next week. The
models diverge the most late next week in respect to the strength
and orientation of features.

The extended begins with an exiting cold front and widespread
snowfall across Nevada. Snow may persist into Saturday morning
across NE NV and into the afternoon for east-central NV.
Additional accumulations across the north will be around 1" with
2-4" additional in White Pine County valleys. The mountains in
East Central Nevada may see far high accumulations during this
period of over a foot of snow.

Cool NW flow will be in place Saturday, which will turn westerly
as the next system approaches on Sunday. This system bears
watching as moist and anomalous flow will spread across northern
NV. Due to the trajectory of flow, limited downsloping would occur
over the Cascade/Sierra ranges and moisture would pour into the
Great Basin. At this time, the thermo profile indicates all snow
for most northern NV valleys through the duration of the event. A
word of caution, slight model differences remain, but most models
indicate this lasting through Monday night and agree with the
overall pattern. The big difference between the EURO/GFS is the
jet structure across northern NV which in returns changes the
axis/timing of the heaviest precip. With that being said,
substantial snow accumulations would be possible and impacts
would be likely. More details will be given as model agreement

The active weather pattern should continue through mid next week
with another system possibly entering the region Wednesday. This
system doesn`t look to be as potent as the last system but it
could bring further snow across the northern half of Nevada. The
track for this system is still uncertain and as such the amount of
moisture that will arrive into Nevada is hard to foresee.


.AVIATION...VFR expected through next 24hrs. The exception to this
is the chance for fog this morning at KWMC and KEKO. Any fog the
that forms should dissipate fairly rapidly with sunrise. For
planning purposes, a large storm system will move through the area
late Thursday evening into Saturday morning. Snow will be possible
at all TAF sites except TPH, where only light snow showers are
forecast. KEKO/KELY will see the most snow with runway
accumulations likely. More details are in the forecast discussion





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