Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 202213

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
313 PM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Friday will be predominantly storm-free across
Nevada, but monsoon moisture will increase across the region over
the weekend through early next week. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will become more numerous by Sunday afternoon into
Tuesday while temperatures remain seasonably warm.


.SHORT TERM...This evening through Saturday.
A few isolated, mainly wet storms will be confined to White Pine
County late this afternoon/evening where surface dew points have
risen to around 50 at ELY and in the vicinity of Great Basin NP.
Otherwise, Friday is shaping up to be mainly storm- free across
the CWA except for a very slight chance of an isolated storm
popping up over far southeast Elko and far eastern White Pine
counties. Attention then turns to the influx of monsoonal moisture
being drawn northward into Nevada over the weekend and early next
week ahead of California coastal low/ trough that lies between
highs centered over the Southwest U.S. and Pacific Ocean. Initial
push of moisture on Saturday could trigger a few isolated, mainly
dry storms across east central Nevada in southern Lander/Eureka,
White Pine and northern Nye counties before spreading farther
north into northern Eureka and Elko counties on Sunday. Seasonably
warm temperatures will continue Friday and Saturday with highs
mainly in the 90s, and lows in the 50s to around 60.

The combination of a low pressure trough along the California
coast and the Four Corners high enhances monsoonal surge into
Nevada. The surge is spread over 3 days with mid level moisture
arriving initially. Storms on Sunday will be relatively high based
with most cells being dry or with limited rainfall. Monday will
be transitioning to an increased coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. Tuesday appears to be wettest and coolest day as
teh California short wave moves inland and draws northward the
deeper monsoonal moisture. Precipitable water approaches 1.25
inches, and another indicator is that specific humidity at 700 mb
surpasses 8 g/kg and brings the potential for flash flooding.

Short wave shears northeast with drier air following behind it.
The deeper monsoonal plume gets pushed east, but moisture
continues to circulate around the subtropical high core into
Nevada. The air mass remains moist and conditionally unstable
Wednesday and Thursday, although drier air will have advected
into northwest Nevada.


.AVIATION...Widespread hazy skies from California and Nevada fires
could limit slant visibility. Most surface observations show 10SM
across northern/central Nevada, although some of this smoke may
settle into the valleys at night to lower visibility to 5SM. Will
forecast persistence with P6SM at all TAF sites.

For tonight, -TSRA will be in the vicinity of KELY through 04Z
this evening. Gusty winds to 30-40kts could accompany any passing
thunderstorms. For Friday, thunderstorms will stay east of KELY
through the afternoon hours.


.FIRE WEATHER...Do not anticipate any significant fire weather
concerns in the short term, though afternoon minimum RH on Friday
and Saturday will remain critically low, down around 10 percent
in FWZ 467, and low to middle teens elsewhere. Friday should be a
dry and mainly storm-free day except for a slight chance of an
isolated storm developing over far southeast Elko and eastern
White Pine counties. Initially, another push of monsoon moisture
could trigger a few, isolated dry storms on Saturday
afternoon/evening across 457, 455, and the southern part of 454,
but area coverage is not deemed significant enough to warrant a
Fire Weather Watch at this time. Winds will continue to be
relatively light the next couple of days with only a few areas
experiencing gusts around or a little above 20 mph during the
peak of afternoon heating.

Sunday through Tuesday. Monsoonal moisture is forecast to expand
northward on Sunday to include the northern portion of 454, and
much of 469 and 470. A Fire Weather Watch may need to be issued on
Friday for the likelihood of greater isolated to scattered dry
storm coverage on Sunday afternoon/evening in central and eastern
Nevada. Forecast models continue to trend toward a surge of deeper
monsoonal moisture that would allow for wetter storms and higher
RH Monday into Tuesday. PW values climb to around 1.00 inch with
locally higher pockets of moisture that would support an isolated
heavy rainfall/flash flood threat that could impact wildfire burn
scars with runoff/debris flow concerns especially on Tuesday.




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