Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
000
FXUS65 KLKN 171022
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
322 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY NICE DAY IS ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE
GREAT BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. RATHER MILD THIS MORNING
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY STILL IN THE
40S. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS ON IR IMAGERY DEFINES THE CREST OF THE H5
RIDGE NICELY NEARING THE CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA BORDER.

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN AMPLITUDE TODAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY TRAVERSES THE CWFA. 570DM HEIGHTS WILL REACH
TO NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER AS THE CREST MOVES EAST. COULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY THUS FAR IN THE CALENDAR YEAR...70S WIDESPREAD WITH
POSSIBLY 80 DEGREES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN CENTRAL NEVADA AS PRE-
FRONTAL SOUTHWEST WINDS KICK UP A NOTCH...BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A SHALLOW LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO NORTHWEST HUMBOLDT COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DEEPENING
AND PRODUCING AT LEAST ONE COLD FRONT...ON FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS BECOMING UNSTABLE AS THE COOLER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.
HOWEVER AM NOT CONFIDENT OF THE SPECIFICS SINCE THE MODELS SEEM
TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH WHAT COULD BE DECODED AS MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THINK THIS IS
OCCURRING DUE TO THE DOMINANT NEAR-ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEVADA
AS THE PROPOSED CENTER OF THE LOW WITHIN THE TROUGH PASSES OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA THEN ARIZONA. WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY
OVER CENTRAL NEVADA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. FLAT RIDGE OVER
THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. FLOW ALOFT
BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...THOUGH MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION. MODELS AGREE WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ONCE AGAIN SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST. TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER NEVADA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AS TO MUCH INCREASED
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER TOWARD VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA. AT THIS
TIME MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH QPF THAN THEY ARE SNOW
LEVELS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW LEANING FORECAST TOWARD
THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF MODEL WHICH SUGGESTS AT LEAST MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE MAJORITY OF VALLEY AREAS...AND LIKELY CHANGING OVER
TO ALL SNOW. FOR NOW QPF AMOUNTS NOT IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR SNOW
ADVISORIES HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY. GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
APPROACHING KWMC THIS EVENING...KEKO NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND TO KELY AND KTPH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/96/96




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.