Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 280543
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1043 PM PDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather will return on Tuesday along with a
warming trend through Wednesday. Next storm system will bring rain
showers and possibly a thunderstorm on Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...Winds have dropped below advisory criteria, therefore the wind
advisory will be allowed to expire at 11 PM PDT. Gusty winds of
20-30 mph will continue to subside through the night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 228 PM /

SYNOPSIS...Dry weather will return on Tuesday along with a
warming trend through Wednesday. Next storm system will bring rain
showers and possibly a thunderstorm on Thursday.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday. Storm exiting the area
this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered rain and snow
showers will end later this evening. Winds still gusting to around
45 mph across parts of northern Nye county so will continue Wind
Advisory through this evening. Have cancelled Winter Weather
Advisory for northern Elko county and the Ruby Mountains early as
little or no additional snowfall accumulation is expected. High
pressure ridge will build into the region Tuesday bringing dry
weather through Wednesday along with a warming trend. highs
Tuesday in the upper 40s and 50s and in the 50s to the lower 60s
Wednesday. Next storm will begin to spread rain showers into
northwest Nevada Wednesday night spreading into all of northern
and central Nevada on Thursday. Some instability on Thursday for
the possibility of isolated thunderstorms. Snow levels falling to
valley floors over northwest Humboldt county by late Thursday
afternoon.

LONG TERM...Thursday night through next Monday. High confidence
with models in good agreement on tight upper trough/closed low
Thursday night centered over central Nevada - western
Idaho...moving to Four Corners by Friday afternoon with northerly
flow over most of the Great Basin. Large ridge moves into the
Basin Saturday with drying/warming, but then flattens as another
system approaches from offshore.

However...confidence on the timing/position/strength/orientation
of this next system is low. by Sunday afternoon...the GFS has a
closed low over northern California and the EC has a flat ridge
over central Cali-eastern Oregon and it only gets worse through
MOnday. So model disagreements make a reasonable forecast in the
middle to long range....pointless is a strong word...extremely
difficult.

For Thursday night into Friday, significant snows may fall on the
mountains, especially from around Jarbidge south to northeast Nye
County and eastward. biggest amounts may be from Great Basin NP
north to Spruce Range and then Pequops. Travel may be an issue and
advisories may be warranted for snow and blowing snow.

AVIATION...Generally VFR through the period but with mountain
obscurations over higher ridge at sites and en route, through mid
day Tuesday. Decreasing clouds and rising ceilings through Tuesday
afternoon. Winds decrease overnight. Snow showers or rain/snow
combined through Monday evening then diminishing. Cigs/visibility may
drop to MVFR at times through Monday evening. KELY AMD NOT SKED
ufn due to missing visibility.

HYDROLOGY...Rivers are still up in parts of central Nevada and
most of northern Nevada. Any rain just melts snow pack, and snow
adds to the pack. Expecting rains/snows this week over most of the
region, through about Thursday night, then a break into next
weekend. However, snow amounts could easily total a foot on many
ranges and even a few inches on valley floors. Should be a wet,
moisture packed spring-like snow, as well.

Expecting flood warnings and advisories to continue for next
several day, and for the Humboldt River, weeks, possibly longer
for the lower Humboldt River.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Northeastern Nye
County-Northwestern Nye County.

&&

$$

94/99



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