Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 101716

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1216 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2016

High pressure over the area has brought clear skies and calm winds
to much of central Kentucky early this morning. However, the
persistent clouds remain across portions of southern IN and north
central Kentucky. With the cold airmass in place and good
radiational cooling, most locations have dropped into the teens this
morning, with some Kentucky mesonet sites as low as 12. The high
pressure will drift across the Lower Ohio Valley today and move east
of the region tonight. Skies will be partly cloudy to clear this
morning, but clouds will move back in this afternoon into the
evening ahead of the next system. Highs today will be a bit warmer
than yesterday, up into the lower to mid 30s.

As the high pressure shifts eastward tonight, return southerly flow
will begin to set up. For Sunday, a low pressure system will begin
to move from the Plains into the upper Midwest. The models continue
to trend slower with the precipitation from this system moving into
the forecast area. Sunday morning should be dry across the region,
so have removed pops from the 12-18Z time frame. Given this slower
trend, there will be enough time for temperatures to warm into the
lower to mid 40s before the precipitation begins. Thus, will take
out any mention of snow or freezing precipitation on Sunday. Highs
will top out in the 40s for the day.

.Long Term (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 316 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016

Rain chances will continue to increase Sunday evening into the
overnight hours as the low pressure system moves into the Great
Lakes region. The cold front associated with this system will swing
through Monday morning. Though temperatures could cool a bit
initially after sunset Sunday evening, strong warm air advection
will likely warm them again later in the night as the cold front
approaches. Thus, precip type overnight and until the end of the
event on Monday looks to remain rain. Sunday night could be a bit
gusty as a strong low level jet develops aloft. Rainfall amounts
from this system look to be from half to three quarters of an inch.

Confidence still remains a bit lower for mid week regarding
precipitation chances. The models have trended drier for Tuesday and
Tuesday night, so have actually removed precipitation chances during
this time frame. Another system diving through the upper trough
could bring some light wintry precipitation Wednesday, though for
now will keep only low chances in the forecast. Another stronger
system could move in on Friday. However, that far out confidence
drops even more.

The better consensus is that colder air will build in from mid week
on. Highs on Tuesday look to generally be in the 40s. By Thursday,
however, they look to top out only in the 20s with lows in the


.Aviation (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1215 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016

Plan on VFR conditions through the period while high pressure moves
east this afternoon and mid clouds pass overhead. A developing low
pressure system will track across the Midwest and lower Great Lakes
Sunday, bringing in a tighter pressure gradient locally. Expect
winds to become southeasterly then southerly by Sunday morning,
increasing to 10-14 kts with some gusts near 20 kts by the end of
the period. Rain showers along with lower ceilings are now expected
to hold off until after 18z at all TAF sites.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........EER
Long Term.........EER
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