Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 222235
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
635 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 635 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Have a clear boundary over central Indiana that now is starting to
fire off with cells north of Madison, IN. Expect further development
upstream along this boundary and eventually pushing its way into our
southern Indiana counties and then again crossing the river a little
after Midnight. There will be plenty of elevated instability for
continued southward development towards daybreak Sunday. Ongoing
forecast had this pretty well handled, so no need for a zone update.
Still will need to watch for flash flood potential with training of
cells, but most of these regions have had a long dry spell, and
flash flood guidance is pretty high.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Surface analysis reveals a subtle outflow boundary across portions
of northern Kentucky and southern Indiana. Satellite picks up this
boundary quite well as towering cumulus and a few mature
cumulonimbus can be observed along it. This boundary will
progressively slide southward as the day wears on, but should fizzle
out by late afternoon allowing a brief break from any isolated
showers or storms.

For late this evening through tonight, high-res model guidance
develop showers and storms in central Indiana and have them moving
quickly to the south and impacting southern Indiana and north-
central Kentucky. Deep layer shear and MUCAPE would support some
strong to marginally severe storms this evening into the overnight
hours, with the main threat being gusty winds. Some small hail is
certainly possible in the stronger storms, but warm temperatures
aloft will be the limiting factor for severe hail. Depending on how
surface boundaries and outflow are oriented, may have to keep an eye
on flash flooding potential as some high-res models show training
storms moving over the same locations for several hours. Showers and
storms should begin tapering down by Sunrise Sunday.

Temperatures will be a little cooler tomorrow afternoon compared to
today as a weak "cold" front moves in during the day, but dewpoints
will still remain high and keep heat indexes in the 100 to 105 range
for areas mainly along and west of I-65. Because of this, will
extend the heat advisory into tomorrow evening for parts of the
region. Similar to today, instability/shear tomorrow morning and
afternoon will also support the risk of gusty winds and small hail
in stronger thunderstorms.

.Long Term...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

High pressure over the Great Lakes will keep the weather over the
region relatively "cool" through the first part of the work week.
Daytime highs/lows will be near climatological normals, and
showers/storms will be diurnally driven though limited in coverage
as forcing/lift remains weak.

Great Lakes surface high will drift east of New England by midweek,
and general flow across the region will take on a southerly/westerly
component as weak upper level ridging builds in. This will result in
slightly increased temperatures and humidity.

Shortwave trough and associated surface cold front will move through
the region late Thursday into Friday. This might be the best shot of
rain we see for the long term as several models develop widespread
showers and storms ahead of the cold front. Cooler and potentially
drier air will be in store behind the front as high pressure settles
in from the north into next weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 105 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Hot and hazy conditions will continue today under upper level
ridging. A few showers and storms may develop along a leftover
outflow boundary across north central KY this afternoon. However,
chances are low on any storm affecting one of the TAF sites, so will
not mention this in the forecast at this time. Winds will be out of
the southwest this afternoon and gusty at times.

A weakening cold front will sink south into the region early Sunday
morning. Showers and storms look to be ongoing along this boundary
as it moves in, though they should be weakening. To account for
this, a PROB30 thunderstorm group will be carried for SDF and LEX
early tomorrow morning. Winds will shift to more westerly behind the
front by mid day tomorrow.


&&

.Climate...
Issued at 445 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

While no record highs are in jeopardy, we may end up setting one or
two record warm low temperatures. On Friday, Bowling Green tied the
record warm low of 76 degrees from 2008. Below are the record warm
low temperatures for July 22-23.

Record Warm Lows   Louisville   Lexington  Bowling Green  Frankfort
July 22nd           81 (1934)   79 (1983)    77 (1983)    79 (1901)
July 23rd           81 (2011    75 (2011)    77 (1983)    79 (1901)

Based on the most recent observations, Louisville and Bowling Green
have a shot to break the record warm minimum temp for July 22nd.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ076>079-092.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Sunday for INZ083-084-
     089>091.

KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KYZ031>037-039>041-046>048-054-055-064-065-075>077-081.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Sunday for KYZ023>030-
     038-045-053-061>063-070>074.

&&

$$

Update...RJS
Short Term...DM
Long Term...DM
Aviation...EER
Climate...EBW


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