Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 252011

311 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2015

...Light wintry precipitation could cause slick spots overnight into
Monday morning...

The surface low associated with a strong PV anomaly is now working
across southern Illinois, and will continue to slide ESE across our
area this evening. Light to occasionally moderate rainfall will
continue late this afternoon and evening ahead of this feature. Most
spots should see around a quarter of an inch of rainfall, with
locaized spots up to a half an inch.

As the system departs to our east tonight, a sharp cold front will
slide NW to SE across our area with rapidly dropping temperatures
into the mid 20s. Enough low level moisture looks to linger during
this time to support a change over to light snow. Can`t rule out
some freezing drizzle as well as saturation only goes up to around
-7 or -8 C, bringing the availability of ice crystals into question.
Either way, the combination of wet roads (from recent heavier
rainfall), and potential for a light snow dusting, or a very thin
glaze of ice could lead to some travel problems ahead of and into
the morning commute. Confidence isn`t overly high in widespread
travel problems, but enough that special mention should be given.
Issued a Special Weather Statement to highlight concerns. If
confidence does become higher, then can`t rule out an upgraded
product with future updates. Overall, kept light snow as the
predominant p-type as we head toward dawn, with generally a half an
inch or less of snow accumulation. Most likely area to see more
problems with slick roads should be east of I-65 and along and north
of I-64.

Expect lingering light snow/flurries/or freezing drizzle along and
east of I-75 through the first part of Monday. Temperatures will
struggle for much of the day under steady cold advection and only
expect highs in the low and mid 30s. Skies should stay mostly cloudy
to cloudy under lingering low clouds.

As we move into Monday evening/Monday night, we`ll watch as the left
exit region of an upper jet dives sharply south southeastward
overnight. As it does so, 1000-700 mb moisture will pool underneath
and should result in some light precipitation across the area,
mostly in the form of light snow. Best location for this looks to be
along and west of I-65 Monday evening, moving to along and east of
I-65 late Monday night.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2015

Several light precipitation chances still remain the long term
period as we remain in an unsettled weather pattern.

Tues small vort waves on the back side of a broad upper trough will
create snow shower chances during the morning hours and then
possibly changing over to a rain/snow mix west of I-65/remaining
snow east of I-65 during the afternoon hours.  A light snow
accumulation may result from this snow shower activity on Tuesday.
Flurries will likely last into the evening hours.

The next precip chances will come Wed night into Thurs as a clipper
system moves east across the upper Midwest.  At this time, the low
associated with this clipper looks to pass to our north and actually
pull up a decent amount of warm air on Wed night.  Precip may start
as a brief wintry mix Wed night and then transition to plain rain as
upper 30s and lower 40s temps get pulled into our area.  Southerly
winds and a noticeably warmer airmass will result in rain on Thurs
with high temps reaching the upper 40s to around 50.  Precipitation
will likely end Thurs night as light snow or a rain/snow mix.

Temps will run slightly below normal Tues/Wed, then a warm day
expected for Thurs, and back to slightly below normal for the end of
the week.

The weekend forecast is much less certain with models backing off of
any major weather systems to bring us notable precip.  Have
scaled back POPs to 20% for Sat night/Sun night with snow or
rain/snow being the p-type.


.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1200 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2015

Conditions will deteriorate through the TAF period as a clipper
system dives southeast into the Ohio Valley by this evening. Rain
and associated lower cigs/vsbys will move into SDF/BWG shortly after
the forecast goes valid, holding off at LEX until early evening.
Still expecting IFR conditions as the surface low settles over the
sites which should occur by early evening and last until FROPA
occurs after Midnight. Highest confidence in IFR is at KSDF and
KLEX, with lower confidence at KBWG. A strong cold front will sweep
through all sites, bringing gusty northwesterly winds (gusts in
excess of 20 knots) along with a brief changeover to some light snow
early Monday morning. Likely won`t see any accumulations from this
snow, but can`t completely rule out a quick tenth of an inch or so.
It should be noted that if moisture isn`t deep enough, precipitation
type could end as some freezing drizzle as surface temperatures
quickly crash.




Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........AMS
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