Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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204
FXUS63 KLMK 090141
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
841 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 839 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2016

Mainly light snow continues this evening, though there are some
embedded areas of more moderate snow. The heaviest area of snow at
this time is moving into Logan county. This should move through
south central KY fairly quickly, but some light accumulations will
accompany it. Therefore, increased the snow amounts to up to about
half an inch for southwest central KY through 06Z. Models continue
to suggest a band of heavier snow will set up across the northern
Bluegrass over the next couple of hours and continue overnight.
However, as of now the heaviest snow has stayed to the north of the
forecast area. Kept the general idea of the heaviest snows overnight
in that area, but lowered snowfall totals just a bit. With
temperatures below 30 across the region and road temperatures
falling, snow will likely begin to stick on untreated surfaces.

Updated at 555 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2016

The majority of the more convective snow showers have moved off to
the east of the region at this time. However, light snow with
pockets of embedded moderate snow continues. Made some small changes
to the forecast for this evening to increase pops across south
central KY over the next couple of hours and to tweak the
temperatures. Most locations west of the I-75 corridor are now at or
below freezing. Have not seen any reports of issues with snow
covered roadways yet, but as temps continue to cool this could
become a problem. Will keep the SPS for now across the western
portion of the forecast area, but we are watching an area of more
moderate snow moving into southern IN. Models continue to suggest
snow will diminish over the next couple of hours, but should it
persist and begin to accumulate, will reevaluate the the need for
expansion of the Winter Weather Advisory.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2016

...Winter Weather Advisory Late This Afternoon - Tuesday Evening...

Have a healthy slug of snow moving into our northwest forecast area
this hour. Upstream reports have been of ligth to moderate snow, but
no significant accumulations.  After further coordination with
surrounding offices, will continue the current advisory in our
eastern half but a SPS for point west, as the snow falls during the
evening rush. Did extend a few counties west on our southern end to
match up better with OHX for their advisory tonight.

Chances for snow showers will continue overnight and into Tuesday.
Road temperatures should fall overnight, thus any showers that do
fall should accumulate on untreated roadways. Temperatures should
stay in the 20s Tuesday and bottom out in the teens Tuesday night.
Still have accumulations through 00Z Wednesday at 2-3 inches over
the Bluegrass and around an inch in the western part of the current
advisory area.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2016

Cold airmass remains in place Wednesday, with snow showers tapering
off from west to east through the day. Thursday, the GFS has come on
board with the 00Z Euro cancelling the Thursday clipper system
affecting our area. However, now the NAM and Canadian are showing it
that early. The 09Z SREF has a weak signal for it as well, but in
general it leans more toward the GFS/Euro solution. With some signal
for it in a few models, will keep pops just under slight chance, in
line with previous forecast.

For Friday, the Euro and GEM continue with their wetter solution
over our northern forecast area, whereas the GFS has now gone dry.
Will go with the blended model solution here, keeping in some lower-
end chances for precip for now. Continuing this thinking, our
weekend should be well below normal for temperatures until high
pressure can get off to our east to start the next work week. Model
divergence here means a continued call for a model blend, as the GFS
comes in with another front and a large moisture field Monday,
whereas the 00Z Euro does not have as much moisture.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 607 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2016

Rounds of snow showers continue to rotate through the region ahead
of several upper disturbances. Overall, intensity with most of the
showers has diminished, however some of the showers will still be
able to force brief IFR visibilities. Expecting ceilings to mostly
prevail in the MVFR and low MVFR range, however periods of IFR will
be possible along with a few patches of VFR.

Overall, expect coverage of snow showers to taper around the
Midnight hour, however will keep VCSH mentioned with steady West
winds. Expect MVFR ceilings to persist through Tuesday, with another
round of snow showers during the middle of the afternoon.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ Tuesday for
     KYZ029>043-045>049-054>057-064>067-075>078-081-082.

IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for INZ078-079-
     091-092.

&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......BJS



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