Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 170022
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
522 PM PDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Night through morning low clouds and fog will continue through the
period. There is a chance of local drizzle this morning. A
gradual warming trend and weaker onshore breezes are expected
through Saturday, even though temperatures will remain a bit below
normal in most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SAT)

Much better clearing today (except SBA area) and warmer temps as
a result. Onshore flow will be weaker the next couple days and the
marine lyr will be shrinking as well as heights rise behind
yesterday`s trough passage so the warming trend will continue
through the end of the week with a pretty good jump tomorrow
across inland areas. Still a pretty deep marine lyr tonight so
clouds should push well into the valleys but full clearing
expected tomorrow except for some beaches. Saturday should be very
similar to Friday.

.LONG TERM...(SUN-WED)

Another weak trough with a semi-closed upper low off the Central
Coast will develop Sun/Mon which will deepen the marine lyr and
cool temps a few degrees, especially inland. Guidance still seems
a bit warm for Monday and Tuesday given the upper pattern and what
should be a healthy marine lyr but held fairly close to MOS
guidance for now. Perhaps a little warming around mid week as the
trough lifts out but probably not enough to even notice.

&&

.AVIATION...17/0015Z.

At 2330Z, the marine layer depth was around 1900 ft deep at KLAX.
The top of the marine inversion was around 3600 ft with a
temperature near 19 degrees Celsius.

Moderate confidence with 00z Tafs in respect to CIG categories and timing
of return of marine layer this evening...with lower confidence
for areas S of Point Conception. The marine layer should shrink at
least up to 1000 ft by Thu morning. Expect MVFR cigs. 50% chance
for IFR cigs for KBUR, KVNY initially but should move up to MVFR
conds after 14z. Expect low clouds to scour out an hour to two
hours sooner compared to this morning. For areas N of Point
Conception fairly good confidence for IFR cigs initially then
becoming MVFR by 14-16z Thu morning. 30% chance will stay IFR
until cigs scour out.

KLAX...Moderate confidence with 00z TAF. Expect VFR conds through
04z then MVFR conds are expected to return between 04-06z
tonight. 40% chance that cigs could develop after 08z. Cigs should
scour out an hour earlier than the last two days.

KBUR...Moderte confidence with 00z TAF. Expect VFR conds through
08-10z. Moderate confidence for IFR cigs to develop initially then
becming MVFR after 14z. Stratus should scour out +/- 1 hour from
00z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...16/330 PM.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Winds not
expected to reach SCA levels across the coastal waters this
afternoon and evening. However there is a 40% chance The the southern
portion of the outer waters from Point Conception to San Nicolas
Island including the western portion of the Santa Cruz Islands
could experience local gusts to 25 kt late afternoon. This will
also be true for the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel
from Refugio to areas west late this afternoon and evening.
Otherwise winds should remain below SCA levels over the next few
days.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(SAT-WED)
No significant hazards expected.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Kaplan
MARINE...Kaplan
SYNOPSIS...Sweet

weather.gov/losangeles



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