Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 200010 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
510 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

...UPDATE FOR NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL FORM ON SUNDAY BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COASTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIALLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME WARMING TO FOLLOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH COOL AND WINDY
CONDITIONS AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...KEEPING THE WARMING TREND THAT COMMENCED TODAY GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE UP AROUND 5 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY...WITH VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
NEARER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BUT WILL
BE MOSTLY DEPENDENT ON THE ALWAYS TEMPERAMENTAL MARINE LAYER.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS SUNDAY. BELOW
ADVISORY BUT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN SRN SBA COUNTY
TONIGHT...AND OVER GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER INLAND SECTION ON
MONDAY.

THE STRATUS HAS CLEARED COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR AREA TODAY...BUT WITH
THE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER SBA TONIGHT FUELING A HEALTHY COASTAL EDDY
OVER LA COUNTY ON SUNDAY MORNING...HAVE TO EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS
FORMING. HOW FAR TO THE NORTH THEY GO IF THEY DO FORM IS A TOUGH
CALL. THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THAT THE
FORECAST IS BANKING ON KEEPING MOST OF THE STRATUS AWAY ON SUNDAY.
WITH LESS OF THAT ON MONDAY...AND NO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
SBA...EXPECTING A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER BUT A LITTLE MORE STRATUS
COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
A TROUGH IS STILL ON TRACK TO FORM OFF THE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY
JUST WEST OF THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SWING
THROUGH CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY...WITH A RAPIDLY DRYING FRONT ZIPPING
DOWN THE WEST COAST. MORE LIKELY THAN NOT...THIS FRONT WILL NOT
PRODUCE ANY PRECIP IN OUR AREA...BUT THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO BRING A SHOWER TO WESTERN
SLO COUNTY ON TUESDAY. MORE IMPORTANTLY A 110 KT WESTERLY JET WILL
FUEL STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING THE NEED FOR MANY WIND
ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR SRN SBA
COUNTY...THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET WITH THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTER TUESDAY MORNING AS THE WINDS AND
COLD AIR TRUMP THE MARINE LAYER.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL FORM OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL COAST. THIS SHOULD BRING
PLENTY OF WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. EXTENDED MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY TROUGH PASSING THROUGH OVER
NEXT WEEKEND. AS IT IS TRACKING NOW...IT LOOKS MORE LIKE ANOTHER
WIND PRODUCER THAN A RAIN MAKER.

&&

.AVIATION...20/0005Z...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z
TAFS...ALTHO MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT A FEW COASTAL AIRFIELDS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE AIRFIELDS THRU SUN. FOR
KSMX..THERE IS A 60-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING ABOUT 06Z AND LINGERING TIL ABOUT 12Z AS OFFSHORE FLOW
SHOULD DISSIPATE THE LOW CLOUDS BEFORE SUNRISE. FOR KOXR...THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
LINGER INTO SUN MORNING...WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NO LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PERIOD. AT KLAX AND KLGB...ALTHO THERE IS
GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO SUN MORNING...THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO...AND THE LOW CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT AT
TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COASTAL
AIRFIELDS THRU SUN. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSBA
ABOUT 02Z-10Z DUE TO GUSTY N CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. GUSTY W
TO SW WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASE AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. ALTHO THERE IS
GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO SUN MORNING...THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO...AND THE LOW CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT AT
TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE AIRFIELD
THRU SUN EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SETO

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