Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 061117
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
317 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
COMBINATION WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SAT-TUE)
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA RAIN
FREE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THE BIG TOPICS (RATHER OUT OF PLACE IN FEBRUARY WITH A STRONG EL
NINO IN PLACE) FOR THE FORECAST IS THE WINDS AND THE TEMPS.

NAM IS (AS IT ALMOST DOES) IS OVER ESTIMATING THE KDAG GRADIENT
BY ABOUT 2 MB. STILL LOOKING AT THE TRENDS IT LOOKS AS IF
YESTERDAYS...TODAYS AND SUNDAYS MORNING`S GRADIENTS WILL BE
SIMILAR (PERHAPS A TOUCH MORE NORTH PUSH ON SUNDAY) MONDAY IS THE
DAY ALL EYES ARE ON AS THE GRADS INCREASE BY 3 MB. ONSHORE TRENDS
WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AS THE GREAT BASIN SFC HIGH PUSHES A LITTLE
MORE TO THE EAST. THE UPPER SUPPORT TODAY IS A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN IT WAS YDY BUT IT WILL BE WEAKER ON SUNDAY. THERE IS AN
APPRECIABLE BUMP UP IN UPPER SUPPORT ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY THE
UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS DRAMATICALLY.

TODAYS LOW END ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD ESP ACROSS THE WINDIEST
RIDGETOPS. IT LOOKS LIKE TOMORROWS WINDS WILL WEAKEN JUST ENOUGH
TO BE UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. STRONG ADVISORY OR EVEN LOW END
WARNING WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE EARLIER THAN NORMAL ONSET OF WINDS WILL BE
GENERATEDBY THE BURST OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

ALL OF THIS WIND STUFF SAID...ALWAYS HAVE TO KEEP IT IN THE BACKS
OF ONES HEAD THAT THE NAM HAS A TENDENCY TO OVERPLAY WIND EVENTS.
BUT GFS AND EC ALSO INDICATE THAT THIS EVENT IS GOING TO HAPPEN SO
FEEL THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING.

ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD PEAKING ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW 80
DEGREE READINGS TODAY BUT MANY MORE SUN-TUE. A NUMBER OF RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY EACH DAY SUN-TUE. MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS
AND VLYS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MAX TEMPS WILL RISE EACH DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR ESP SUN. BUT THEN
THE COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE INTERIOR WILL REALLY SLOW
THE WARMING TREND. THE INTERIOR WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR HIGHEST
READINGS FOR THE WEEK ON WEDNESDAY.

THE VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IN
THE WIND SHELTERED AREAS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE VERY LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN MIN TEMPS ACROSS SHORT DISTANCES DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE WINDS ARE BLOWING AND WHERE THEY ARE CALM. LOWERED MIN TEMPS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT EVEN WITH THAT THERE IS A CHC THAT THEY
WILL COME IN A FEW MORE DEGREES COOLER THAN FCST.

.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)
THE RIDGE AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY WED AND THU. IT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY IN THE MORNING BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS BUT
MORE THAN LIKELY THE WINDS WILL NOT EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX
TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE CSTS AND VLYS AS OFFSHORE FLOW SUBSIDES
BUT THE INTERIOR WILL WARM AS THE COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL END.

PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE IS FINALLY NUDGED
TO THE EAST BY A TROF. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SWITCH FROM OFFSHORE TO
NEUTRAL. MAX TEMPS WILL REALLY PLUMMET BUT WILL STILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SORT OF TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THERE
IS A NON ZERO CHC OF RAIN (MAINLY THE MTNS) BUT STILL TOO SLIM A
CHC TO INCLUDE THE R WORD IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. OTHERWISE
THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AND MORE COOLING.


&&

.AVIATION...

06/1030Z

AT 1000Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP MOST SITES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE KPRB WHERE MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE 13Z-17Z. AS FOR
WINDS...WILL EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS (KOXR...KVNY...KPMD...KWJF). THERE IS A CHANCE OF
LLWS/TURBULENCE BETWEEN 12Z AND 22Z ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES
SITES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
AIRFIELD VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOT BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
AIRFIELD VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF
LLWS/TURBULENCE 12Z-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...

06/200 AM

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. ON MONDAY...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF
ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS PZZ676. ELSEWHERE...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TODAY FROM VENTURA HARBOR
SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA...WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
ELSEWHERE. FOR SUNDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ON MONDAY...STRONGER NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING...AND EVEN A CHANCE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS
BETWEEN VENTURA HARBOR AND SANTA MONICA.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST EARLY THIS
      MORNING FOR ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
      ZONES 40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...THOMPSON
MARINE...THOMPSON
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES


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