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000
FXUS64 KLUB 092028
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
228 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...
STUBBORN FREEZING FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FINALLY LIFTED LATE
THIS MORNING...LEAVING LOW A LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
THE FORECASTED LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS FAILED TO UPROOT
ITSELF FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO...AND GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR AND SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT SNOW
TOTALS WILL APPROACH ONE INCH.  THUS...OPTED TO REDUCE SNOW TOTALS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH...AS IT APPEARS THAT LIGHT FLURRIES TO PERHAPS A DUSTING OF
SNOW ARE ABOUT ALL THAT CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS LOW
TEMPERATURES.  AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EJECTS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND OUT OF WEST TEXAS...VERY DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
THE AREA AND ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST.  MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA BY MIDNIGHT... WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TO PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING.  MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG GIVEN LINGERING
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TEENS...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE REMAINING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE DIMINISHING OF
UPSLOPE WINDS...IT SEEMS THAT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE.  INSTEAD... A
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST.  THIS WILL
NEED MONITORING THIS EVENING IN THE EVENT THAT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
PROVES CORRECT.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLEARING OF CLOUD COVER AND
DRYING AIR COLUMN... LOWS ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL
LIKELY FALL BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES...AND WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO
REFLECT THIS.

LEE TROUGHING WITHIN A REGIME OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DRAW
SOUTHWEST WINDS BACK INTO THE AREA TOMORROW...RESULTING IN MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  ON THE ROLLING
PLAINS...LINGERING SNOW AND ICE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN 5-10 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW
FELL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FOLLOWING ZONAL FLOW ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK SWLY
AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW NOW OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA. THIS
WAVE WILL BE IN DECAY MODE AS IT CROSSES WEST TEXAS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...BUT DOES STAND TO BENEFIT FROM AN IMPROVING
AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THEREAFTER...THE PREVAILING UPPER
PATTERN FAVORS A DRY AND UNEVENTFUL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. NO
FURTHER INTRUSIONS OF ARCTIC AIR ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME AS
DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN CANADA TRENDS MUCH FLATTER.

ONLY CHANGE OF SIGNIFICANCE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE WILL BE OPENING UP AND WEAKENING AS IT
EXITS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY...THE CONCERN IS THAT A
SUFFICIENT FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE CARRIED ACROSS
WEST TEXAS AND RESULT IN A SLOW...BUT EVENTUAL TOP-DOWN MOISTENING
PROCESS. THE ECMWF IS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH ITS QPF COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS...BUT EVEN GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MOISTENING SUITABLE
FOR SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP. PRECIP PHASE AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO
FAVOR LIQUID MODES THANKS TO A BUILDING WARM NOSE ON BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT...BUT SURFACE TEMPS MAY COOL TO AOB FREEZING
VIA SOME WET BULBING PROCESSES...SO FREEZING RAIN COULD ENTER THE
PICTURE AT TIMES. THIS THREAT HOWEVER MAY BE NULLIFIED ALTOGETHER
IN LIGHT OF STEADY S-SW SURFACE WINDS AND MILD DAYTIME HIGHS.

FRIDAY LOOKS QUITE WARM AND BREEZY FOLLOWING THE SOUTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE BEFORE A DRY POLAR FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH FRI NIGHT. THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST DEVELOPED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FRI NIGHT
CROSSING THE REGION...BUT IN NWLY FLOW REGIMES THESE TROUGHS
TYPICALLY PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN UPSLOPE PRECIP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO...SO WE/LL DISCOUNT THE EC/S LIGHT QPF
PROGGED TO SNEAK INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ON
SATURDAY QUICKLY MODERATES AND TRENDS SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY BEFORE
YET ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT TAKES AIM MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        10  48  16  35  14 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         11  46  19  37  15 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     11  46  20  37  16 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     11  46  21  39  15 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       12  46  22  38  17 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   13  46  23  40  18 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    15  46  22  39  18 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     16  37  20  38  15 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          17  37  23  38  16 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     19  38  22  39  18 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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