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FXUS64 KLUB 060905
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
405 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WX CHANGES ARE COMING AS WE MOVE OUT OF A BENIGN WX PATTERN TO
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAINFALL DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...COURTESY OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST.

UA RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...THOUGH IT HAS FLATTENED QUITE A BIT THANKS TO AN UA
DISTURBANCE THAT HAS MOVED ESE FROM CANADA TO ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
AND NEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. IT IS THIS
DISTURBANCE THAT IS DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT MORE ON THAT IN A MOMENT. LOOKING CLOSER TO
HOME...SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SE SFC WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WERE
NOTED ACROSS THE CWA PER 08Z METARS. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE FA TO TRANSLATE NWRD AOA
DAYBREAK THUS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS. PER 08Z METARS...THE STRATUS DECK WAS LOCATED AT AND SOUTH
OF MENARD TX WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE N-NW. IF THIS TRAJECTORY
PERSISTS AND THE CLOUD DECK HOLDS TOGETHER...IT MAY INDEED AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND SERN ZONES LATER THIS MORNING.

LATER TODAY...ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE PROSPECTS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ENDURING S-SE SFC WINDS WILL AID TO
INCREASE MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO TONIGHT...WHICH IS
INDICATIVE BY PROGGED PWATS INCREASING TO 1.50-2.15 INCHES BY THIS
EVENING /DEWPOINTS NEARING THE 70S ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK/.
CONCURRENTLY...AN UA SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WRN AZ WILL PROGRESS
ENE TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THIS EVENING LEADING TO
INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THE ONLY THING MISSING IS A MESOSCALE
FEATURE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE MOISTURE AND UL SUPPORT. THIS IS
WHERE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT COMES IN. THE FRONT WILL
IMPINGE ON THE AREA TODAY...BUT THE TIMING/SPEED OF THE FRONT IS IN
QUESTION. THE NAM...ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS HAS THE FRONT AFFECTING
THE NWRN ZONES BY AOA 07/00Z /AND PUSHING SEWRD WITH TIME/...WITH
SIGNS OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NRN...WRN...AND NWRN ZONES. ON THE OTHER-HAND...HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS
SUCH AS THE HRRR AND TTU WRF HAS THE FRONT IMPINGING ON THE NWRN
ZONES BY AOA 06/18Z /WHICH IS A 6 HR DIFFERENCE FROM THE NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF/ BUT IS ALSO EXHIBITING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION AFFECTING
THE SAME PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
QUITE IMPORTANT AS IT WILL DICTATE THE ONSET OF STORM DEVELOPMENT.
WILL ELECT TO HOLD ON TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES
FROM 06/15-18Z...AND MAINTAIN THE EXPANSION OF POPS EWRD DURING THE
06/18-00Z TIME PERIOD. AFTN SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATING STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES AND SFC-BASED CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 2.0 KJ/KG ACROSS THE
NRN AND NWRN ZONES DURING THE AFTN...DOES RAISE CONCERNS FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A FEW OF THOSE STORMS TO APPROACH STRONG LEVELS
/GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS/...ESPECIALLY IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS AS QUICK AS WHAT
THE HRRR AND TTU WRF ARE SHOWING...AS IT COULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A
BIT DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER RATHER WEAK SHEAR COULD
MITIGATE THIS POSSIBILITY.

AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING THRU TONIGHT...THE FOCUS WILL SWITCH
FROM GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL TO MORE OF A LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT...AS THE UA DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA WHILST
THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS QUITE A BIT /PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 1.50-
2.00 INCH RANGE/. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...AND A RATHER WEAK MEAN-FLOW /COUPLED WITH
HIGH MOISTURE/ IS WHY THERE ARE HIGH CONCERNS FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THIS POTENTIAL IS EVEN HIGHER IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
IS SLOWER SUCH AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM
SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD MEAN UL DYNAMICS AND MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL
ALL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING-NIGHT HOURS. CAN NOT THEREFORE ARGUE
WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS DURING THE 07/00-12Z TIME-FRAME.
FURTHERMORE...THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A RAINFALL AMOUNT
RANGING FROM 0.50 INCH ACROSS THE SWRN ZONES TO MORE THAN 2.00
INCHES ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS VALID FOR 12Z TODAY THRU 12Z
TUESDAY. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ANALYZE THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL HELP TO DECIDE IF/WHEN THE DISSEMINATION OF A
FLOOD WATCH SHOULD OCCUR. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING
PLAINS. /29

.LONG TERM...
AN UNUSUALLY STRONG AND DEEP SUMMER COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EDGING SOUTHWARD EARLY TUESDAY...LIFTING VERY WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES SHIFTING MORE INTO EAST OR
SOUTHEAST ZONES EARLY IN THE DAY. FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COOL SURFACE RIDGE ALONG WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY WITH BRISK NORTH
TO NORTHEAST BREEZES. WE ARE NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT IN THE WRF/NAM
DEPICTION DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH BUT
WE HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER NONE THE LESS. PRECIPITATION ACROSS
OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST TUESDAY WILL REMAIN HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND
VERY INTENSE WITH THIS FRONT...THOUGH BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED
SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION THIS MAY SOMEWHAT LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL
AMOUNTS. WE REMAIN CAUTIOUS THAT A LARGE MCS COULD TAKE FIRMER
CONTROL OF INGEST OF THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS AND PERHAPS
SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER PRECIPITATION FOCUS...BUT BETTER INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THIS WILL BE MORE INTO EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA BY LATE TUESDAY. WE WILL RETAIN MENTION OF FLOODING
POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OBVIOUSLY WILL
REMAINED TUNED TO ADDITIONAL FORECAST TRENDS.

UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS A BREAK IN
BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BUT A WEAKER TRAILING IMPULSE
RIPPLING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY
LOOKS CAPABLE OF DRAGGING DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
THE AREA AT LEAST BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUS
CHANCES FOR THUNDER.

BEYOND THAT...UPPER HEIGHTS APPEAR POISED TO CLIMB FROM FRIDAY
INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH RIDGE CENTER BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY BEFORE NUDGING FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
SUNDAY. MONSOONAL FETCH LINGERING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES LATE
IN THE WEEK WILL THIN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT. UNCERTAIN IF WE WILL SEE
ENOUGH NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW TO STEER MOISTURE AND THUNDER ACTIVITY
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OUR WAY. SO FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DRY
AND WARMER. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        88  63  75  59 /  60  80  30  30
TULIA         89  64  72  59 /  50  80  50  30
PLAINVIEW     90  65  72  60 /  40  80  50  40
LEVELLAND     91  66  75  62 /  40  80  50  40
LUBBOCK       92  67  74  62 /  30  80  60  50
DENVER CITY   91  67  77  63 /  40  70  40  40
BROWNFIELD    91  68  76  62 /  30  70  50  40
CHILDRESS     95  70  76  64 /  30  80  80  50
SPUR          92  71  76  63 /  20  60  80  60
ASPERMONT     94  74  81  66 /  10  50  80  70

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05



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