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000
FXUS64 KLUB 181109
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
609 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.AVIATION...
Ongoing convection early this morning across Texas panhandle will
remain north of all TAF locations. Isolated to scattered TSRA may
develop after 21Z today favoring KCDS, but this is a low
confidence scenario and will be left out of 12Z TAF cycle. VFR. JW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
T-storm activity continues across the Texas Panhandle this morning
as a short-wave trough crosses the central plains. The southern
extent of this activity could brush our northern or northeast counties
of the far southern Texas Panhandle later this morning, but should
not amount to more than a few showers and/or weak t-storm cells.

For the rest of today, heights will begin to build from the west
as that shortwave moves away from the region, but there still
will be sufficient moisture and instability for a chance of
afternoon and evening t-storms, primarily across the northern half
of the forecast area. Temperatures should not change much from
yesterday, with highs mainly in the low to mid 90s on the Caprock
and mid to upper 90s off.

Saturday into Sunday, an upper ridge develops across central and
east Texas as fairly deep upper trough takes shape over the west
coast. This will result in southwesterly flow aloft over West
Texas. Sub-tropical moisture, which has been shunted into
northwest Mexico, will begin to return north across eastern AZ and
much of NM. The eastern extent of the moisture plume should nudge
into our northwest counties late Saturday and bring a chance of
t-storms to that area - with much the same situation on Sunday.
The remainder of the forecast area should remain dry with high
temperatures not budging much, mainly in the upper 80s northwest
to upper 90s southeast.

By Monday, a weakening shortwave ejecting from the southwest
trough will brush West Texas as it moves northeast into the
southern plains. This will drag the moisture plume farther
northeast with it and expand the chance of t-storms farther into
roughly the western half of the area Monday afternoon and evening.
It may also bring considerable high clouds which could hinder the
viewing of the eclipse, but it is still too early be very
confident on the extent of the cloud cover.

By Tuesday, the ECMWF drives a front into the area as a sharp
shortwave dives out of central Canada into the midwest. However,
the GFS holds the front up to our north. Precip chances Tuesday
into Wednesday will hinge on the front`s progress because
otherwise upper ridging will likely keep precip chances pretty
low. Another feature to watch will be TUTT low moving into Texas
from the northern Gulf of Mexico. At this point the low is
expected to remain too far to our south to have much impact on our
weather, but could eventually help in breaking down ridging over
West Texas.

Temperatures throughout next week should be very close to seasonal
norms, and slightly below around midweek if the front makes it
here.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

33/33/13