


Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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657 FXUS64 KLUB 151014 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 514 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 515 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 - Dry today with seasonably hot temperatures. - Storm chances return Wednesday through Thursday with the best chances Thursday evening across the Caprock. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 At the beginning of the period a subtle upper-level shortwave trough will shift eastward leaving behind weak 250mb northwest flow resulting in a mid-level ridge over the region. Continual southerly low-level flow will usher in another sub-tropical airmass into the region. Due to the departure of the upper-level trough, warmer temperatures aloft will keep the atmosphere mostly capped as compared to Monday, and as such, lower POPs are expected across the region Tuesday. Otherwise, seasonable temperatures are expected across the region. KL/GF && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 In the mid/upp0er-levels, the subtropical ridge will continue to flatten, as a potent shortwave trough ejects into the northern Great Plains. The center of the 500 mb ridge will be centered over the Four Corners region, with a barotropic (cut-off) low still rotating offshore Baja California. Mid-level flow will remain significantly dampened, with basal 250 mb troughing persisting over the southern Great Plains. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front should be located across western KS and into the Raton Mesa, and is forecast to continue moving southward, with its movement aided by convective reinforcement. Winds will remain breezy, as lee cyclogenesis continues in the western High Plains from the intensifying component to the cross-barrier flow accompanying the base of the shortwave trough, but the isallobaric response will remain weak. Seasonably hot temperatures are expected Wednesday, with highs peaking in the middle 90s area-wide, as geopotential height tendencies remain nearly neutral. The low-level jet will intensify Wednesday night beneath a belt of northwesterly 250 mb flow, with the potential for WAA-induced showers and storms forecast late Wednesday night into Thursday morning across portions of the CWA. The barotropic low offshore Baja California will open up Thursday, with a 250 mb jet streak forecast to intensify on its eastern flank which will impart some baroclinity into the region as it translates northeastward. The northern-stream jet streak will continue to amplify over the northern U.S. as well, and the net result will be a modest increase in high-level difluence while the CWA remains close to the right-entrance region to the northern-stream jet streak. PoPs remain highest Thursday night across portions of the Caprock, as the slow-moving cold front, which will be convectively-reinforced, sags southward. Mesoscale details remain unclear, but the best potential for strong to perhaps low-end, severe-caliber wind gusts. NAEFS/ENS guidance continues to indicate less than impressive PWAT anomalies, with values <2 standard deviations above seasonal norms, so the risk for widespread, excessive rainfall is low. Flash flooding potential will, therefore, remain localized, especially as the MCS begins to decay as it moves into portions of the Caprock after sunset. Storm chances are then forecast to dwindle heading into the weekend, but remain confined to the western zones as the monsoon returns to the Desert Southwest and into the southern Rocky Mountains. Sincavage && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 VFR with light S winds picking up to 10-15 knots this afternoon. Cluster of SHRA and some TS near SNK moving north this hour are not expected to pose any threat to the terminals. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...93