Area Forecast Discussion
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286
FXUS64 KLUB 011150
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
650 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO MENTION SHOWERS OR TSTORMS IN VICINITY OF ALL THREE
TERMINAL THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT CEILINGS COULD DROP INTO MVFR IF SHOWERS OR TSTORMS WERE
TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM...
DESPITE DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS LEFT BEHIND FROM THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ADVANCING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTH
PLAINS...LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG TX/NM BORDER
SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA WILL
BE LIMITED WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO OUR WEST AND WARMER
TEMPS AND DEEPER SURFACE MOISTURE TO OUR EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
AS A RESULT WE WILL SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND COOL HIGH TEMPS THAT MAY
APPROACH RECORD LEVELS...CURRENT FORECASTED HIGH IN LUBBOCK FOR
SUNDAY IS 56...RECORD LOW HIGH TEMP FOR MAY 1ST IS 54 SET IN 1990.
COOLER AIR IS REINFORCED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER
LOW MEANDERS ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
LOOKING VERY LIKELY THAT CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM FROM LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER RIDGING AS WELL AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTING SOUTH
TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY WILL BE ENOUGH TO SEVERELY LIMIT PRECIP
ENOUGH CHANCES EARLY MONDAY...ENOUGH SO TO REMOVE PRECIP MENTION
FROM THE FCST THAT DAY. WILL STILL BE A BIT OF REINFORCING COOL
AIR INTO THE FCST AREA THAT DAY...BUT EVEN THAT LOOKS TO BE OFFSET
BY MORE INSOLATION THAT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WILL NUDGE HIGH TEMPS
UP A BIT IN LINE WITH MODEL BLEND AND JUST BELOW MOS CONSENSUS.

MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE TO
THE SSE DOWN THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. WRF-NAM AND ECWMF
HAVE A STRONGER SIGNAL WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS...AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED
SHOWERS MOVE INTO NWRN ZONES AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
TIMING NOW FAVORS TUESDAY AFTN RATHER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT.

FINALLY...ANOTHER UPPER WILL FORM OVER THE WRN CONUS LATE WEEK.
SLOWER PROGRESSION EWD OF THIS LOW SUGGESTS SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE WRN ZONES FRIDAY EVENING NOW EVEN MORE SLIGHT. STILL
APPEARS THAT DRYLINE MAY BECOME ACTIVE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
EDGES EWD TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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