Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 241146

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
646 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

VFR with dry northwest flow aloft. Patch of mid and upper level
moisture and clouds should gradually dwindle as an upper level
speed max steers east into the lower Mississippi Valley later this
morning. Mixing into the stronger flow will bring on breezy
conditions affecting mainly KCDS by mid morning; chose to back
off a bit on wind forecasts for both KLBB and KPVW based on short
range model trends the past several hours. Clear and cool with
mostly drainage flow expected tonight. RMcQueen


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017/

Mostly dry weather conditions will continue for the rest of the week
with varying temperatures.

We will still be under the influence of a strong height gradient
aloft today especially over the Rolling Plains. Strong winds at
850mb will quickly mix to the surface later this morning. This
height gradient will begin to relax this afternoon and evening. The
surface ridge moving overhead this evening will slide to the
southeast on Wednesday. Surface pressure troughing will develop in
response to height falls upstream on Wednesday. This will lead to a
healthy warmup on Wednesday afternoon and a large diurnal range.

A cold front is still on track to move through the area on Thursday
during the daytime but the stronger push of colder air will not
occur until the evening. This may allow temperatures to warm up more
during the day on Thursday with Friday being the coolest day. A
surface ridge on the order of 1026mb will be centered over the area
on Saturday morning likely leading to a widespread freeze for both
the South Plains and Rolling Plains. Temperatures will moderate by
early next week as northerly flow aloft backs to zonal flow.

Very light precipitation is possible on Friday morning but any
amounts will be very light if any at all. Frontogenetical forcing
aloft behind the cold front on Thursday may interact with a shallow
layer of moisture spreading in from the west. Surface conditions
will be fairly dry as well actively preventing precipitation from
reaching the ground. Within this time frame Friday morning,
temperatures would be cold enough for snow in the southwestern Texas




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