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000
FXUS64 KLUB 271116
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
616 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.AVIATION...
A little complex of thunderstorms across western Oklahoma should
stay east of KCDS. Meanwhile, the window for fog/low cloud
development is narrowing. Still some indications we could see a
few pockets in the vicinity of KLBB and KPVW but the duration
should be brief if it happens. Confidence is low and will keep
mention out of the TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Model consensus is strong for the next trough currently entering
the Pacific Northwest to gradually break down the ridge that will
begin our return to more seasonable heat beginning this
afternoon. We`ll go from low 90s today, mid 90s Wednesday and
triple digit heat on Thursday as the upper level flow becomes more
zonal through midweek. Best energy associated with the Pacific
trough will remain well to our north leaving our area in meager
flow aloft with little instability to tap into what should be
decent Gulf moisture return through Thursday out ahead of a cold
front scheduled to push through the Texas Panhandle late Thursday
into early Friday.

One exception is potential for convection Wednesday afternoon as a
dryline develops in proximity of the TX/NM state line. ECMWF
indicates a sharper moisture gradient timed with an upper level
shortwave and steeper height falls in the late afternoon, while
the GFS picks up on this feature somewhat, it is currently backing
off of initiation. Sharp differences on potential for precip on
Friday exists as well, with the ECMWF hinting at more common
scenario of convection moving off the higher terrain of easter New
Mexico into the South Plains, while the GFS has convection mostly
across Oklahoma associated with the larger synoptic trough axis
well to the east, despite both timing the Pacific front pushing
south through the Texas Panhandle and into the South Plains at
almost the exact same time, late Thursday night into early Friday
morning. The ECMWF holds dewpts steadily in the 60s ahead of the
advancing cold front late Thursday while the GFS pushes the
dryline well east of our area. The location of the highest surface
moisture will dictate our rain chances. Precip chances extend into
Saturday as the front stalls and weak northwest flow reestablishes
itself in the wake of the exiting trough.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

55/07