Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 011641
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
DRY VFR WITH UPPER RIDGE AND A WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH NEAR THE NEW MEXICO-WEST TEXAS BORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MINOR SURFACE WIND DIRECTION FLUCTUATIONS BUT LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
DOMINATE. A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NEARLY
THE SAME LOCATION TOMORROW EARLY MORNING AS THIS MORNING...ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE. SURFACE WINDS COULD
BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 13-15 KNOTS TOMORROW MORNING WITH A FEW GUSTS
FAVORING KPVW BUT WILL NOT INDICATE FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IN STORE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVERHEAD. ISOLATED CONVECTION ON THE LEE
TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST AND NW OF THE FCST AREA. PROGGED
THICKNESS VALUES NEAR OR JUST A TOUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY COMBINED
WITH A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST MERIT IN THE
MOS TREND OF A VERY SLIGHT DIP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND A MILD
OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...
A RELATIVELY STAGNATE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ON TAP FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH UA RIDGING DOMINATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
LONG TERM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UA RIDGE TRANSLATING EAST
OF THE REGION JUST A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK COURTESY OF A
NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE TOWARDS THE HIGH
PLAINS...THUS MAKING IT POSSIBLE FOR A BIT OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE/STORMS TO NUDGE IN ACROSS THE FAR WRN AND NWRN ZONES FRI-
EARLY WEEKEND. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E IN THE ERN PACIFIC
IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT NE TOWARDS THE BAJA OF CALI THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND MOISTURE FROM IT COULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE OVERALL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THEREAFTER...THE UA RIDGE IS PROGGED TO RETURN
PRACTICALLY OVERHEAD BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK HENCE LIKELY
SHUTTING DOWN STORM CHANCES. THAT IS TO SAY...UNLESS A COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP MOVES ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AS HINTED AT
BY THE GFS...WHICH COULD NEAR THE NRN ZONES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEARBY SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL AID IN SLIGHTLY BREEZY SFC SRLY FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND PERHAPS VARIABLE
AT TIMES...THANKS TO THE UA RIDGE AND ITS SFC COUNTER-PART MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
SUPER-BLENDED SOLUTION STILL INSISTS ON SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT
LOWS...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT IS STRUGGLING WITH SOILS
NOT BEING AS MOIST AS WHAT IT THINKS IT SHOULD BE. WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY LOWER MINS AS A RESULT /LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SW
TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR
ROLLING PLAINS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        90  63  91  62 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         91  64  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     91  65  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     90  63  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       92  67  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   89  64  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    90  64  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     97  69  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          95  67  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     98  69  95  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05


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