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000
FXUS64 KLUB 021801
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1201 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
A DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE PARTICULARS. WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLBB AND KPVW DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND
FREEZING FOG. THIS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT
WE MAY NOT BREAK OUT COMPLETELY OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. KCDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE CUSP OF MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEN FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE
THAT KCDS WILL SEE LOW CEILINGS. THERE IS MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
THICK FOG AT KPVW AND KLBB CENTERED AROUND 9-12 UTC. ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORY REDUCTIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER 14 UTC. SURFACE
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE W-SW TUESDAY MORNING AND BECOME
BREEZY BY MIDDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE APPEAR
TO BE FORCED IN PART BY A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH A
VEERING LOW-LVL PROFILE...AND IS ABLE TO OVERCOME A VERY DRY LAYER
AROUND 800-700MB. THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE ON A DIMINISHING
TREND...AND ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12
NOON WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS MAINTAINING
WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...AND WE HAVE RECEIVED
REPORTS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG...INCLUDING AT THE LUBBOCK AIRPORT.
THE FOG WILL SLOWLY THIN OUT THROUGH NOON...BUT LIGHT FOG IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS SOME AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUR CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S MAY
PROVE JUST A BIT OPTIMISTIC...BUT WE STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY
CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD MENTION OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS
MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED SHOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ARE MOVING
NORTHEAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS THAT HAVE BEEN PRESENT FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AT PVW AND
LBB WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO IFR BY 15Z AND MVFR BY 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 23Z LATER THIS EVENING. VIS AT
BOTH TERMINALS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/2-2 MILES THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
THROUGH 15Z. DESPITE IMPROVING CIGS LATER TODAY A LAYER OF STRATUS
WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
BETTER AT CDS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE CIGS RISE TO VFR.
A STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED AT CDS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IS HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE ON AVERAGE 0-1 DEGREES F. THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE FOGGY
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS LOW CEILINGS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS ARE FAIRLY MOIST AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 4-5 DEGREES F ARE
OBSERVED. THIS IS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FA DUE TO THIS MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
MORNING. VIS AROUND MORNING COMMUTE TIME CAN BE ANYWHERE FROM
1/2-2 MILES WITH LOWER VIS OCCURRING IN MORE RURAL AREAS AND WHERE
THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A
LEE TROF DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND AT LEAST GET US ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
DAY. THOUGH WARMER...1000-500MB/MSLP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WAA AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE WEAK AND SLOW TO OCCUR. WEAK WAA IN ADDITION TO
THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHER ISSUE AT HAND FOR TODAY IS
PRECIP CHANCES. THOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY IT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO CREATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ENERGY FROM AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS ENERGY IS HARD TO PICKUP ON WV IMAGERY TO
DETERMINE ITS VALIDITY...HOWEVER INCREASED LIFT IS NOTED ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WHICH MAY COINCIDE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. THIS GIVES ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARMER SIDE...ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS
DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS. MODELS FOR THE
LAST 4 DAYS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH WIND SPEEDS BUT SEEM TO BE COMING
CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS OF 10-15 MPH AS OPPOSED TO THE 25-35 MPH THE
GFS WAS PREDICTING. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
HOWEVER AS RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING TAKES PLACE WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE.

UNFORTUNATELY THE WARM UP WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING THE
FASTEST...THEN THE ECMWF...AND THEN THE NAM AS THE SLOWEST. AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE WEST COAST CLOSED LOW WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A STRONG TROUGH AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE DRIED
OUT ON TUESDAY...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN AND START
TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE
A WHILE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN SO THE BEST LIFT MAY BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME THE COLUMN CAN
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. NEXT ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO START OFF AS ALL LIQUID THEN TRANSITION
TO FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET AS A DEEP WARM LAYER
CENTERED AROUND 800 HPA IS STILL FORECASTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT
FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE THE BEST MID LEVEL
LIFT WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND STRONGEST
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. BEST SNOW TOTALS WILL PROBABLY
AMOUNT TO AROUND 1 INCH BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN
THAT...AND FOR THOSE THAT RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD SEE MAINLY
A THIN GLAZE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REIGNS SUPREME AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THAN IT IS.

TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF BAJA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SWING THIS
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. GFS HAS A MUCH
WEAKER POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE
CLOSED LOW SOLUTIONS ARE SPITTING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS DRY. ONE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE GFS WARMS
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF
HINTS AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE FRONT IN
THE ECMWF IS RATHER WEAK AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING TOO FAST. FOR ONCE WE WILL HAVE TO SAY THAT WE PREFER THE
GFS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS
WHICH IS A SPREAD FROM LOWS IN THE 30S TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  33  60  24 /  20   0  10  10
TULIA         39  34  60  23 /  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     38  35  61  24 /  30  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     37  35  63  30 /  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       39  36  64  26 /  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   39  35  65  36 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    36  34  64  34 /  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     40  34  66  26 /  20  10  10  30
SPUR          39  34  67  26 /  10  10  10  30
ASPERMONT     39  34  69  26 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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