Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 031957
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
257 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO TALK ABOUT HERE THAT COULD CHANGE
OUR PLEASANT AFTERNOON WEATHER INTO SOMETHING MORE EXCITING THIS
EVENING. FIRST...WE HAVE AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. SECOND...A WEAK BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM BROWNFIELD TO LUBBOCK TO PADUCAH.
THIRD...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING IN FROM NEW MEXICO.
FINALLY...OTHER WEAK HIDDEN BOUNARIES LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT MUST NOT BE FORGOTTEN. THESE ARE THE PLAYERS...HOW WILL
THEY MIX?

AS OF 1930Z THE SHORT WAVE IS SHOWING ITS HAND FIRST BY FIRING OFF
STORMS IN BAILEY COUNTY. IT IS EXPECTED THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE MOISTURE RICH AIR AND CREATE A MUCH LARGER AREA OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS THESE STORMS MOVE CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY...A BRIEF ENHANCEMENT OF THESE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP...CAUSING A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG AT TIMES. THE SPC
HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA...AND WITH INVERTED
V SOUNDINGS...STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST RISK
WITH THESE STORMS. ALSO...NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUEANCE OF FLOOD PRODUCTS ATTM.
ANY HIDDEN BOUNDARIES WILL AID IN POP-UP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
BY TOMORROW MORNING STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING TO THE EASTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
FOLLOWING BEHIND. THEREFORE...EXPECT RAPID CLEARING ONCE RAIN CLEARS
AREA AND TEMPS TO RECOVER SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS FOUR CORNERS REGION GRADUALLY
AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AN
ACTIVE POLAR JET WILL DISTRIBUTE A NUMBER OF IMPULSES ALONG
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST BUT HIGH
PRESSURE DOME SPREAD ACROSS WEST TEXAS APPEARS TOO STOUT FOR THAT
ENERGY TO INFLUENCE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY.

WITH DRIER PATTERN ESTABLISHING ITSELF...BEST TO FOUCUS ON
TEMPERATURES...SPECIFICALLY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
LIKELY TO SEE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...PEAKING NEAR 100 FOR MOST OF US ON THE CAPROCK THURSDAY
DUE TO RISING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE SEASONABLY HOT DAYTIME
HIGHS AND MILD OVERNIGHTS. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS BUT THEN BEGINS TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD
EVEN STRONGER AS DEEP LOW APPROACHES PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  93  66  96 /  40  10   0   0
TULIA         66  94  69  96 /  50  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     68  94  69  97 /  50  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     67  96  70  98 /  40  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  96  73  99 /  50  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   67  97  70  99 /  40  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    68  96  71  99 /  40  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     72  98  74 102 /  50  20   0   0
SPUR          69  97  73 101 /  50  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 100  76 103 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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