Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 130431
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1131 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR WITH A DRY AIRMASS BENEATH DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE NORTH OF TAF SITES BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

AVIATION...
MODEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
REPEAT OF THE LOW CLOUD DECKS EXPERIENCED EARLY SATURDAY AT KLBB IS
NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WAS CAUGHT UP BENEATH THE UPPER LOW OVER
MEXICO CONTINUES TO HANG ON ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS SHOW DRIER AIR QUICKLY ADVECTING WEST
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AIDED BY DEEPER MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. IMPACTS TONIGHT SHOULD BE VERY MINIMAL AS
SFC-H8 FLOW EVENTUALLY VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED FROM SOUTHERN KS INTO THE OZARKS WILL
SUCCESSFULLY BUILD SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUN BEFORE AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER CANADA BEGINS DIGGING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CONUS. SHORT RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON AN INITIAL WEAK
BOUNDARY MAKING PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...WHICH MAY BE
AIDED BY OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION FORMING LATER THIS EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUN SHOW A WEAK TO UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH A
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FORMING BELOW H5
AND VERY WEAK NE FLOW ALOFT. NONE OF THESE SUGGEST POSITIVE REASONS
TO BUY INTO THE NAM DEPICTION OF PRECIP ALONG THE LEAD BOUNDARY
DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY WITH VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND INSOLATION SHOULD HELP TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE
90S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOCATIONS NEARING THE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS SUN AFTN. LOW CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN OVERNIGHT
WITH SE FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE TRANS-PECOS BUT THESE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SOUTH PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE
BEGINNING EARLY THIS NEXT WEEK AS CANADIAN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD
FROM ONTARIO LATE SUNDAY AND THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LAKES INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A SERIES OF FRONTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES...WITH THE FIRST FRONT/OUTFLOW MOVING INTO
THE PANHANDLE ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS. SECOND SURGE WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS
VORT MAX ROTATES SOUTHWARD AROUND THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
NOT MUCH SUPPORT THIS FAR SOUTH FOR CONVECTION MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO WITH SOME POCKETS
OF INSTABILITY ALONG BOUNDARY. MORE SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC AND FRONTAL
FORCING WILL EXIST WITH SECOND PRIMARY FRONT WHICH WILL SURGE SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY BE THE
BEGINNING ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THIS INITIAL WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...COULD SEE A LULL
IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COOLER AIR AND ENERGY MOVES SOUTH WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IDEA IS FURTHER
REINFORCED BY 12Z ECMWF RUN...WHICH ONCE AGAIN CONFIRMS GFS TIMING
OF WAVE AND QPF SIGNAL. BY THIS TIME 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL HAVE FALLEN
TO AROUND 585 DM WITH SIGNIFICANT JET ENERGY...COLD AIR ALOFT...AND
UPSLOPE FLOW TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE POSITIVE INGREDIENTS FOR
CONVECTION AND PERHAPS A MORE BROAD MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION. HAVE KEPT POPS IN HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND EVEN UPPED TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...BLENDING WITH OUN.

GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO TAKE UPPER TROF AXIS EAST OF THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THUS DRIER WEATHER SEEMS LIKELY...ALTHOUGH
WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING AND UPPER RIDGE NOT READY TO BUILD IN TOO
QUICKLY...RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD ON BUT DECREASE INTO THE WEEKEND.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MID WEEK...WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOL UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS WED AND THUR
MAY HOLD IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA WITH LOWER
80S LIKELY ELSEWHERE. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  89  65  89  64 /   0  10  20  30  40
TULIA         66  92  66  91  65 /   0  10  20  30  40
PLAINVIEW     66  92  66  90  66 /   0   0  20  30  40
LEVELLAND     66  93  67  91  67 /   0   0  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       68  93  70  94  69 /   0   0  10  20  30
DENVER CITY   65  92  66  91  67 /   0   0  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    66  93  66  91  68 /   0   0  10  20  30
CHILDRESS     71  99  73  96  70 /   0   0  20  30  40
SPUR          68  96  70  95  69 /   0   0  10  20  30
ASPERMONT     71  99  73  99  73 /   0   0  10  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05




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