Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 250846
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
345 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

Drier and cooler airmass contd to advect into the region overnight
behind a departing upper lvl low that moving acrs the SERN states. A
weak area of sfc high pres was situated over AR, resulting in clear
skies and light winds. Patchy fog noted early this mrng, mainly in
the vcnty of some of the larger lakes. Conds wl improve by mid
morning in those areas.

Benign weather wl be noted ovr AR today as the aforementioned sfc
high shifts EWD, with south winds returning to most locations this
aftn. Highs today wl be much warmer than on Wed, with readings
topping out in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Moisture lvls wl on the increase tngt and Fri as a new storm system
organizes to the W. Small rain chances return to the fcst Fri/Fri
ngt as the low passes N of AR and an assocd fntl bndry apchs NW AR.
Confined POPS to mainly the N half of the FA where best support/lift
wl be noted. Unsettled conds wl cont heading into the holiday
weekend.
&&

.Long Term...Saturday Through Wednesday

Flow aloft will be nearly zonal at the start of the long term
period...with a cold front dropping south across the Plains towards
AR. Low level moisture levels will have increased significantly by
Sat...with dewpts increasing into the upper 60s to low 70s across
the state. Temps will also warm into the 70s and 80s for Sat
afternoon...with resulting forecast CAPE values potentially very
high of 4k+ J/kg. Strong mid-level lapse rates will be seen as a
result...though a very significant capping inversion will remain
during most of the daytime hrs on Sat...and potentially even
persisting into the early evening hrs.

Med range model guidance continues to suggest convective development
during the evening hrs Sat just north of AR in SW MO/SE KS along and
just ahead of the approaching cold front. This convection looks to
then develop into an organized cluster or complex and move SE into
NRN AR. The aforementioned capping inversion should limit convective
initiation earlier on Sat this far ahead of the primary forcing
mechanism...the approaching cold front.

If storms were to develop and become mature Sat afternoon and early
evening in the LZK CWA...severe thunderstorms will be seen...with
very large hail and damaging winds likely...due to the large CAPE
profiles in the hail growth zone and mid-level dry air. A tornado or
two may also be seen...but again the potential for seeing SVR storms
in the afternoon early hrs will be conditional on updrafts
overcoming the very impressive capping inversion.

As time goes on...what convection forms north/NW of the state will
drop south/SE into the state during the late evening into the
overnight hrs early Sun morning. Depending on what the resulting
convective evolution becomes...damaging winds will become the
primary threat if the convection develops into an organized
cluster/bowing...quasi-linear complex. Individual cells within this
potential complex will still be capable of large hail...along with
brief tornadoes also possible in any individual cells...or along the
leading edge of a linear complex.

Keep in mind that uncertainty in the SVR Wx threat remains for Sat
afternoon into Sun morning...and that changes in front location and
speed...and strength of capping inversion can effect when and what
SVR Wx is seen. Refer to the latest forecast updates over the next
couple days as these details/uncertainty become more clear.

As the cold front pushes further SE into AR on Sun morning...the
threat for SVR Wx will decrease and shift SE. Expect the cold front
to drop south of the state by Sun evening...with lingering POPs over
SRN sections of AR. There could still be a few strong to SVR storms
in this region of the state...but expect the precip chances to
decrease by Mon morning as drier...more stable air filters into the
state. Dry conditions will be seen into Tue...but moisture will
returning for Wed as an upper level shortwave trough approaches from
the NW. Will see slight to low end chance POPs return to end the
forecast.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...44 / Long Term...62


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