Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 231118 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
518 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017


Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...



VFR conditions will continue through the period. Winds will be
light and variable...slowly transitioning to the SW...remaining
less than 10 kts. Only high level clouds are expected.


.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 248 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

Quiet conditions ongoing across the CWA early this Thanksgiving
morning as SFC high pressure has settled across portions of the
state. The light winds have allow temps to cool off into the 20s to
low 30s...with some high level clouds keeping temps from dropping
off too rapidly. The SFC high will slowly drop south through this
afternoon...with similar conditions expected compared to Wed.
However...some light SRLY flow will allow temps to warm a few deg
into the 50s and 60s for highs this afternoon.

The SFC highs will shift further south of the state for Fri...with a
new front and weak SFC low moving SE towards the state by Fri
afternoon. This will allow for slightly increased winds for Fri
afternoon...with some 8 to 14 mph SRLY winds expected. There may be
some gusts approaching 20 mph. These SRLY winds will also allow
temps to warm even further...with highs in the 60s to low 70s. The
dry pattern will continue into Fri night.

The lack of significant rainfall and with continued dry air
remaining in place will keep the wild fire threat at least elevated
to high across the state. Light winds for today will help limit some
of this wild fire danger...but min RH values will drop below 40
percent for most areas...with some areas dropping below 30 percent.
Some burn bans have returned...and with the lack of any rainfall and
a dry air mass remaining across the area...the number of burn bans
may increase in the coming days.

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday

The extended forecast will start with a frontal boundary moving
through the region, but due to a lack of moisture, no rain is
forecast and some clouds will be seen. Surface high pressure will
then build in over AR on Sunday and Monday, with dry and cooler
weather. The surface high pressure gradually will move east, and a
south wind flow will return to AR as moisture levels gradually
increase. Tuesday to Wednesday, the next cold front is expected to
move through the region, and a chance of light convection is
forecast. At this time mainly showers with isolated thunder
potential is forecast, with much of the rain pushing east of AR
Wednesday night. GFS and Euro do have differences in timing of the
system, with the GFS faster than the Euro as well as the Euro
developing a wave and hence a surface low pressure over the region
on Wednesday. At this time have mostly used a GFS solution until
additional Euro runs clarify solutions. Overall rain amounts with
this system at this time will remain low and be below a quarter to
half an inch.

Temperatures will start a bit below or around normal values on
Saturday, then gradually warm above normal values ahead of the cold
front on Tuesday to Wednesday.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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