Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 221152 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
550 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.AVIATION...
Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions will be noted through tonight with
areas of low clouds expected. There will be patchy drizzle/freezing
drizzle this morning, with showers/isolated thunderstorms increasing
from the south and southwest this afternoon and tonight. Winds will
be east/northeast at 5 to 10 mph today, and light and variable
tonight. Low level wind shear is expected tonight. At 2000 feet,
winds will be southwest at 35 to 45 mph. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
While there is a lull this morning, more rain is in the
forecast, and it could become excessive.

A front along the Gulf Coast will lift to the north into
Arkansas during the near term. A new storm system will
also approach from the southern Plains, and will interact
with the front. This will result in an extended period
of showers/scattered thunderstorms from later this afternoon
through Friday/Friday night.

Before the fireworks get started, there be low clouds
and patchy drizzle this morning. Toward the Missouri
border, temperatures are at/a little below freezing, so
patchy freezing drizzle could occur.

Rain will build over the region from the south/west this
afternoon and tonight. Precipitation will be heavy at times, and
will tend to focus along aforementioned front from southwest
through central and northeast sections.

Heading into Friday/Friday night, the heaviest rain will shift
into the northern counties with the front.

Through the period, one to more than three inches of liquid is
in the forecast, and this does not include the round of
thunderstorms coming on Saturday with the aforementioned storm
system. Because the ground is now saturated in most areas, and
there are ongoing high water problems, opted to issue a Flood
Watch for the entire county warning area through Saturday evening.

There is a lot of concern about dangerous flooding in the
southeast half of the state after widespread three to more
than five inch rainfall totals the last couple of days. Some
spots got over eight inches. If expected amounts materialize,
the situation will go from water over roads to water into
homes and businesses.
&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Active weather will persist across the forecast area to start the
long term portion of the forecast. Some changes will take place with
the pattern aloft as a series of deeper troughs make their way east
from the western CONUS and begin to take a bite out of the ridge
that has been holding strong off the southeast Atlantic coast.

One intense shortwave will lift out of the four corners area and
track northeastward across the Southern Plains and just north of the
state. Surface temperatures on Saturday will be in the 60s and 70s
across the area with fairly widespread 60F dewpoints. A surface low
will develop well west of the state and track northeast across
Oklahoma and eventually into Missouri, dragging a cold front
along the way.

Widespread cloud cover should be in place which will help keep
instability values from climbing to dangerous levels. However, given
the strength of the nearby shortwave, veering wind profile, 50-60kts
of shear, strengthening LLJ and approaching cold front...several
boxes are checked in terms of severe weather potential. Damaging
winds and tornadoes would be the primary threats attm...stay tuned.
Heavy rainfall will continue to be a concern on Saturday as a line
of storms may be possible and the ground will be more than saturated
in many areas.

Cooler (near normal) temperatures are expected in the wake of the
front and through the remainder of the long term. Dry conditions
observed Sunday and Monday look to be short lived as rain chances
return by mid week.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     52  49  59  55 /  30  90  70  80
Camden AR         58  56  68  61 /  50  70  80  50
Harrison AR       50  45  57  52 /  50  80  60  90
Hot Springs AR    53  51  60  57 /  60  90  80  70
Little Rock   AR  53  52  61  58 /  50  90  80  70
Monticello AR     63  59  72  63 /  50  40  60  50
Mount Ida AR      54  50  59  56 /  70  80  80  70
Mountain Home AR  50  47  59  52 /  40  90  60  90
Newport AR        52  50  58  56 /  30  80  80  70
Pine Bluff AR     55  54  65  60 /  50  70  70  60
Russellville AR   52  49  59  55 /  60  90  80  80
Searcy AR         53  51  60  56 /  40  90  80  70
Stuttgart AR      53  52  62  60 /  40  70  80  60
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch through Saturday evening FOR Arkansas-Bradley-
Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-
Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Jackson-Jefferson-Lincoln-
Lonoke-Monroe-Montgomery-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-White-Woodruff.


Flood Watch through Saturday evening FOR Baxter-Boone-Conway-
Fulton-Izard-Johnson-Logan-Marion-Newton-Pope-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-
Stone-Van Buren-Yell.


Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR
Baxter-Boone-Fulton-Izard-Marion-Newton-Searcy-Stone.

&&

$$

Short Term...46 / Long Term...67


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