Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 311929
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
229 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE ANY CHANCES OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEN A GRADUAL WARM UP INTO NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER NW FLOW SETS UP FOR PART OF THE REGION...AND SOME
POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY COULD MOVE CLOSE TO AR...AND DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION AS TEMPS WARM LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK.

TODAY A DRIER AND MILDER AIRMASS HAS FILTER INTO AR WITH A NE TO
E SURFACE FLOW. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN FAR
WEST AR BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS...ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY
ONLY WEAK CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER EASTERN OK. SOME UPPER SHORT
WAVE ENERGY...ALBEIT WEAK...IS SEEN IN THE UPPER NW FLOW.
LOCALIZED INSTABILITY REMAINS WHERE THURSDAY CONVECTION SET UP
OVER WESTERN AR. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WERE A BIT COOLER TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EVENING FOR FAR WESTERN
AR...OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE DOES MOVE A BIT MORE
WEST...BUT STILL HAS INFLUENCE OVER AR WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE. ALOFT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
AND MUCH OF ANY SHORT WAVE ENERGY DOES STAY NORTH OF AR IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE SEEN. CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME WOULD BE LOW AND ISOLATED AND WILL NOT INCLUDE TO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM OVER THE SHORT TERM AND BE A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD HOLD BELOW 100 DEGREES. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SLOWLY RETURN INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
HEAT ADVISORIES UNTIL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE NERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE EXTENDED TERM...WITH A PREDOMINANT NWLY
FLOW. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE TERM. TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...AND FOR
THE MOMENT I WILL TEND TO DEFER MORE TOWARD A FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME...WHICH WOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TO THE STATE. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE FRONT...LIKE THE LAST ONE THAT
PASSED THROUGH...WOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  93  69  94 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         68  96  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       65  91  67  92 /   0   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    68  96  69  97 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  95  71  97 /   0   0  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     69  94  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      66  95  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  92  67  92 /   0   0  10  10
NEWPORT AR        66  92  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     68  94  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  95  68  96 /   0   0  10  10
SEARCY AR         67  94  69  95 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      69  93  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...53



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