Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 301814
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
114 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...30/18Z TAF CYCLE

BACK EDGE OF MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WL CONT TO SHIFT EWD OUT OF
CNTRL AND ERN AR EARLY THIS AFTN. WL CONT TO SEE SCT-BKN CU FIELD
DVLP THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE CDFNT THAT LOCATED JUST W OF AR ATTM.
HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO INDC THAT SCT SHRA/TSRA WL FORM LATER
THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE FNT OVR WRN AR...THEN TRANSLATE SLOLY EWD
THRU THIS EVENING. CONTD WITH VCTS AT MOST FCST SITES FOR NOW AS
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT TEMPO GROUPS ATTM. CDFNT
WL SLOLY WORK THRU MOST OF THE FA LATE TNGT AND SUN...WITH SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND PTCHY BR FORMING LATE. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

STILL HAVE ONGOING MODERATE TO...AT TIMES...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS STEADILY MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...LYING GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM HARRISON THROUGH
RUSSELLVILLE AND DOWN TO ALMOST MT IDA AS OF 4AM. EXPECT THIS TO
PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY ROUGHLY 10AM OR SO. BEHIND THIS
PRECIP SHIELD...THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH
THE STATE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND FAIRLY WELL...WITH
HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE RECOVERY OF
TEMPS COUPLED WITH THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF SOME
MORE SHOWERS...HOWEVER I EXPECT THESE TO BE FAIRLY SCATTERED
ABOUT THE AREA. HAVE SOME 30-40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE QUITE A BIT WHEN
ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...LEADING
DO A VERY NICE DAY COME SUNDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH DRIER AIR
AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 70 IN THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND
80 IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH ARKANSAS FROM THE WEST
MONDAY...BUT THERE IS STILL NOTABLE DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW MUCH
RAIN THIS WILL PRODUCE IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND JUST HOW FAR NORTH
IT WILL MAKE IT. AS SUCH...ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. ZONAL UPPER FLOW LATE
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY WILL THEN AMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY BY MIDWEEK
AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL
FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD...BUT THE MOST NOTABLE ASPECT OF THE LONG
TERM WILL BE THE COOLDOWN EXPECTED LATE WEEK. MOS GUIDANCE IS
YIELDING TEMPERATURES 5-7 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS IMPRESSIVE AT ANY TIME OF YEAR
MUCH LESS EARLY MAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



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