771
FXUS64 KLZK 061147
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
647 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were diminishing in
coverage across Ern AR early this morning. In the wake of this
precipitation, skies were clearing out, leading to the formation
of fog and areas of dense fog. A Dense Fog Advisory is now in
place through 9AM for a large portion of the CWA except for far
E/NE/SE counties. Visibilities were reduced the greatest amount
over much of Wrn AR into Cntrl AR. Remember to allow extra time to
reach your destination if you must travel in these locations.

Today, fog will dissipate during the mid morning hours (thinking 9-
10am) giving way to partly to mostly cloudy skies during the
afternoon. A few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms could
develop over mainly Wrn AR during the peak heating hours of the
afternoon, otherwise today will serve as a short reprieve from
widespread precipitation. Highs this afternoon should range from
the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Tonight, a weak upper level disturbance, located just to the N and W
of AR, will pass through synoptic SWrly flow. This should trigger a
squall line of thunderstorms to the W of AR, then this complex
will move across portions of Nrn AR. Rain chances will linger into
Tuesday morning until the shortwave energy moves off the N and E.
The main thunderstorm hazard with the line of thunderstorms
locally would be isolated instances of damaging winds and
marginally severe hail. This line of thunderstorms is expected to
be decreasing in intensity as it moves across Nrn AR. Highs on
Tuesday should climb into the mid and upper 80s. An unsettled
weather pattern will continue into late Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

The extended period will start off with a large storm system
wobbling from the northern Plains into the upper Midwest on
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Surface low pressure will form in the
southern Plains and track toward the mid-Mississippi Valley. The
system will drag a cold front into Arkansas.

Ahead of the front, well above normal temperatures are in the
forecast. Afternoon CAPE values from 3000 to 4000+ J/kg seem
reasonable. There will be moderate values of shear, although wind
energy will be more appreciable across the mid-Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys. Given the setup, explosive storm development is expected
during the afternoon/evening hours. Storms that become severe will
be capable of producing very large hail, damaging wind, and there
could be isolated tornadoes as well. Precipitable water between 1.5
and 2.0 inches will yield heavy downpours, and the potential of at
least localized flash flooding.

The front will be in central/southern Arkansas on Thursday, so
hit/miss showers and rumbles of thunder will linger in areas from
Little Rock southward. As the big system to the north wobbles to the
east, the flow aloft will become northwest, and this will drive the
front toward the Gulf Coast. Cooler/drier and more seasonal air will
follow the front, and this will be realized Friday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

LIFR conds were prevailing this morning thanks to widespread dense
fog. Conds should begin to improve between 14z and 15z. VFR conds
should return by early afternoon with widely scattered SHRA/TSRA
possible but did not include at any terminals this afternoon due
to low confidence. A line of SHRA/TSRA may approach Nrn sites late
in the TAF cycle thus mentioned in PROB30 group for now. Wind
gusts today should be in the 10-20 kt range out of the S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     81  69  86  67 /  20  50  20  10
Camden AR         84  68  86  68 /  30  30   0  10
Harrison AR       79  64  83  61 /  20  70  10  10
Hot Springs AR    83  67  86  66 /  30  30  10  10
Little Rock   AR  84  71  87  69 /  20  40  10  10
Monticello AR     85  71  87  70 /  20  10  10  10
Mount Ida AR      83  66  86  66 /  30  40  10  10
Mountain Home AR  80  66  84  61 /  20  60  10  10
Newport AR        82  70  85  69 /  20  40  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     84  70  86  70 /  20  30  10  10
Russellville AR   82  67  87  66 /  30  50  10  10
Searcy AR         82  68  85  66 /  20  40  10  10
Stuttgart AR      83  71  85  71 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ004>006-
014-015-024-031>033-039-042>045-052>055-062-066-103-112-113-
121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-
241-313-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...70