Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 152346 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
646 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SITES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS
EVENING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...HELPING KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS FAR AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE IS CONCERNED WITH THE USUAL SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES
HAVING TO BE DEALT WITH. WITH THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BEING WHAT THEY
ARE WITH THE SUBTLE FEATURES...FEEL THE BEST APPROACH IS TO BLEND
THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS THE
SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT GFS.

WEAK UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH AN
OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND TO THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT BEEN FALLING
OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. ATTENTION WILL NOW TURN
TO AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND REACH THE LOUISIANA BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

MEANWHILE...UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AS STRONG UPPER
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH SUBSEQUENT
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IN
TURN WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN A PREDOMINATE NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEVERAL WEAK UPPER WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT DURING THIS TIME.

BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY END UP BEING THURSDAY AS MOISTURE FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE SPREADS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.
WHILE DEEPEST MOISTURE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA FOR NOW...WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH. RAIN
CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS.

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RUN WARM AND WILL UNDERCUT THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND SPOTTY PRECIP...CANT SEE TEMPERATURES GETTING TO ABOVE NORMAL AS
CURRENTLY INDICATED BY THE MAV/MEX.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AS THE REMNANT
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

LATE ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE STATE FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE FROM LONG RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DUE TO POSITIONING/SPEED OF THE PARENT TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS. GIVEN THIS...RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT BEGIN
UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND COULD LINGER THROUGH
PART OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR WILL BE SEEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP FOR A FEW DAYS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58



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