Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 290535
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1135 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE TAF PERIOD WITH
WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BE BRIEFLY GUSTY AS
THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL.
THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH LEVEL BUT SOME LOWER
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WHERE LOWER CLOUDS PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT...WITH A WIND
SHIFT WITH FROPA. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED LOW STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT DID ADD MVFR CIGS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SITES AS CLOUDS WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM MISSOURI. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE STATE...AND MAY
HAVE TO ADD CIGS TO SOUTHERN SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED TO THE E OF AR THIS AFTN...WITH A DVLPG SFC
LOW OVR THE NRN PLAINS. THIS RESULTED IN A BREEZY S/SELY WIND FLOW
OVR THE NATURAL STATE. MID AFTN TEMPS WERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS TIME ON TUE...WITH READINGS RANGING FM THE 50S OVR ERN AR TO
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW TO THE N OF THE REGION WL CONT TO TRACK
EWD TNGT AND THU. MEANWHILE...A CDFNT TRAILING SWD FM THE LOW WL
SWEEP THRU AR LATE TNGT AND ON THU. WINDS WL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND
THE FROPA. MOISTURE LVLS RMN LIMITED WITH THIS SYS...SO NO RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED. COOLER AIR WL GRADUALLY FILTER SWD ON THU...WITH MILD
TEMPS STILL ANTICIPATED OVR CNTRL AND SRN AR.

THE COOLER AIRMASS WL BE MORE NOTICEABLE ACRS THE FA ON FRI...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. CLOUDS
WL BE ON THE INCRS FM THE W BY FRI NGT AS A NEW SRN STREAM STORM SYS
ORGANIZES OVR THE SWRN PART OF THE NATION.

RAIN CHCS WL RETURN TO THE FCST FOR SAT AND SAT NGT AS A SERIES OF
WEAK UPR IMPULSES EJECT OUT OF THE SWRN U.S. STORM SYS AND MOVE THRU
THE MID SOUTH. FCST TEMP PROFILES CONT TO INDC MAINLY A COLD RAIN
FOR THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BOUT OF WINTRY PRECIP
OVR PARTS OF NRN AR EARLY SAT MRNG AND AGAIN LATE SAT NGT.

RAIN WL BCM MORE WIDESPREAD SAT NGT...AND WL CONT INTO THE START OF
THE LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LEFT HIGH END POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING ON THE FROPA ENTERING THE REGION. THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCY AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WHERE THE ECMWF WANTS
TO HOLD ONTO MOISTURE LONG AFTER THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...MEANWHILE
THE GFS HAS MOST OF THE MOISTURE PUSHED SOUTH. WENT WITH A MODEL
BLEND FOR NOW WITH MENTION OF A BRIEF TRANSITION PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAYS HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITH LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM.

MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK UP TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S/50S.

IN THE MEANTIME THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE BREWING
IN THE GULF...PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS STORM SYSTEM JUST TO OUR SOUTH
WHILE THE GFS HAS A TRACK FURTHER NORTH. WENT WITH ANOTHER MODEL
BLEND APPROACH CONSIDERING HOW FAR OUT THIS IS...AND THE FLIP
FLOPPING THAT WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE BEFORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     45  57  29  46 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         49  69  35  53 /   0  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       43  51  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    48  63  32  51 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  47  63  32  49 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     49  68  35  51 /   0  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      49  61  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  43  52  27  47 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        45  57  29  45 /  10  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     48  65  34  48 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   43  60  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         43  59  29  46 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      46  62  32  47 /  10  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

56
AVIATION...99





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