Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 311957
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
257 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
SURGE OF COLDER AIR IS ALREADY COMING IN TO ARKANSAS...WITH
TEMPERATURES LEVELING OFF IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING IN. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX...WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING.

THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN
MUCH OF THE STATE. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE PORTIONS OF EASTERN/
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...WHERE THE WIND MAY STAY UP A LITTLE BIT...AND
TEMPERATURES MAY OVER A BIT ABOVE FREEZING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50S IN MUCH OF THE STATE...
WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AGAIN.

BY SUNDAY...THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO DEPART...WITH WINDS COMING BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. IN TURN...TEMPERATURES WILL
START WARMING.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY...OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...
WHICH WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE
LONG TERM PERIODS.

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS. WENT WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION...AS THE SITUATION IS A BIT MORE MARGINAL THERE.

HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
AS MANY AREAS WHO MAY NOT HAVE FALLEN TO FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING
MAY FALL TO FREEZING ON SUNDAY.

FOR THOSE INTERESTED...THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE EARLIEST FREEZE FOR
SEVERAL LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH IN SEVERAL YEARS. IF
A FREEZE DOES OCCUR AT LITTLE ROCK OR NORTH LITTLE ROCK...IT WILL
BE THE EARLIEST FREEZE AT EITHER LOCATION SINCE 1993.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
PERIOD BEFORE DIVERGING SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARDS THE END. WITH SUCH
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...FEEL THE BEST WAY TO
GO AT THIS POINT IS TO BLEND MODEL SOLUTIONS AND TAKE A WAIT AND SEE
APPROACH. REGARDLESS...VERY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE STATE.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
AND A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. IN BETWEEN WILL BE
A RATHER ROBUST COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
ANCHORED TO LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH IN CENTRAL CANADA.

FRONT WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AS IT RUNS INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHEAST HIGH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING
DURING THE DAY WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
BY WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE FRONT LIMPS EAST WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS PWATS SURGE TO IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AND A HALF.

PATTERN GETS A BIT MUDDLED BEYOND WEDNESDAY AS MODELS ARE SHOWING A
A CLOSED UPPER LOW SEPARATING FROM THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW SOMEWHERE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW ENDS UP GOING
BECOMES THE QUESTION MARK WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING ANOTHER WAVE OF
MOISTURE IN WHILE THE GFS CLEARS IT OUT. DID TWEAK POPS A BIT LATE
IN THE PERIOD BUT WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...WILL SEE WHAT FUTURE
RUNS BRING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     29  51  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         31  56  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       25  54  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    32  54  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  32  54  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     33  55  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      25  55  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  26  53  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        32  51  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     33  54  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   26  53  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         29  52  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      33  53  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-
NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-
SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR ARKANSAS-DESHA-DREW-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...56




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