Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 241913
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
313 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight and Sunday/...
Hot weather on-going this afternoon with an upper-ridge directly
overhead across the region. 100 days of 90+ degree days at
Chattanooga was established today...along with 75 at Knoxville
(McGee-Tyson). A downslope wind off the mountains may help us
tie/break the record at both sites (94 and 93 respectfully) before
sundown. A clear and mild night is expected overnight which will
then give way to another hot day tomorrow. A very weak shortwave
will approach and perhaps drop into the region during the
afternoon. This may shift winds slight to the NW...but should not
impact temperatures much given the abundant sunshine and very dry
soils. With a weaker cap and this boundary...did add some 20-30
PoPs along the high terrain of the East Tennessee Mountains for the
late afternoon.

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Saturday/...
We will have a weather pattern change early in the extended as a
cold front approaches the region. May see a few
showers/thunderstorms linger over the area Sunday evening as Sunday
diurnal convection comes to an end. Then... models continue to
struggle with timing of the cold front...but also continues to
trend a bit faster with each model run. Based on this
trend...should see convection develop on Monday with the main band
moving in late Monday into Monday night. Scattered convection
should linger into early Tuesday with precip ending and clearing
conditions expected by late in the day. Behind the front...
dry...cooler high pressure should build in...and the rest of the
extended should experience temperatures much closer to seasonal
norms. However...there are differences in models around the
Thursday/Friday time frame. The ECMWF drops an upper low into the
area which rotates in scattered showers across far northern areas
during this time frame. The GFS keep the upper low far enough to
our north that it will have little effect on area weather. For
now...will go with the GFS and persistence...and keep the area dry
through the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             69  94  69  88 /   0  10  10  40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  66  92  66  84 /   0  10  10  40
Oak Ridge, TN                       67  92  66  84 /   0  10  10  40
Tri Cities Airport, TN              61  87  63  82 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

AMP


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