Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMRX 250647
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
247 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
Another quiet night across the region with the showers in
Western/Middle Tennessee quickly fading as they move east. Likely
they will not make it to our neck of the woods, but will help bring
an increase in mid level clouds. Despite the increased cloud
coverage we will still see very warm temperatures today. These warm
temperatures combined with some moisture in the atmosphere will
lead to a slight chance for precipitation later. Chances look very
slim, but will have a few locations with slight chance PoPs for
later today.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
Upper-level ridge of high pressure will be the dominant weather
feature across the Tennessee Valley...through the end of the work
week. Abundant moisture underneath this ridge will allow for some
isolated to widely scattered diurnal convection each afternoon...
with the Plateau and Smoky Mountains being favored. This ridge will
gradually shift northeast over the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday...which
will open the door for a weak tropical disturbance to possibly
drift toward the region this Holiday weekend.

There is some model disagreement on the track and intensity of this
feature...but the early run of the NAM...as well as the GFS indicate
it may move ashore into SC/NC...and generate cloud cover and much
better chances for showers and storms for Sunday and Monday. The
ECMWF is much less excited about this...and shows this feature
remaining off shore. Will continue to monitor this potential in the
coming days...as this will have a large impact on PoP...sky...and
temperature forecasts for Sunday and especially for Memorial
Day...and those with outdoor plans. For now...have better coverage
for scattered convection each day through the end of the weekend.
High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s Thursday and
Friday...with readings a touch cooler for during the long weekend.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             89  65  88  66 /  10  10  20  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  86  63  86  66 /  10  10  20  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       85  63  87  65 /  10  20  20  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              81  60  85  62 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

ABM/AMP



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.