Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 291910
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...BASED ON LATEST RADAR/VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY DID DECIDE TO ADD IN SLIGHT CHANCE POP THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY...MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY THOUGH.

UNSETTLED SHORT TERM AHEAD. WEAK UPPER LOW STILL CENTERED ACROSS
GULF COAST STATES. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND ALSO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AS THIS LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH AND MERGES WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS MERGER BETWEEN FEATURES SHOULD
PROVIDE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
TODAY THUS FAR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SUNDAY NIGHT WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
RIPPLE OF ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH MOISTURE PUMPED
IN FROM THE SOUTH. AS THE TROUGH KEEPS MOVING OUT WE GET RIDGING
BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. AS OF THIS WRITING, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ERIKA HAS DISSIPATED INTO JUST A TROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER THE MODELS
HAVE NOT CAUGHT ON TO THIS FACT JUST YET, SOME OF THEM STILL HAVE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. WILL GENERALLY GO BELOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THAT MODELS SPIT OUT, AS SOME OF THE MOISTURE WITH
FORECASTED PRECIPITATION IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE IN WITH ERIKA. GFS IS
VERY WET NEXT WEEK WITH REMNANT MOISTURE HANDING AROUND THE AREA,
WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER AS IT KEEPS WETTEST AIR SOUTH AND
EAST OF US, WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF. BUT CONFIDENCE
IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW IN THE LONG TERM SINCE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK. SO AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT
WEEK HIGHS START TO REACH BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80`S WHICH IS
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  81  66  86 /  30  50  30  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  82  64  84 /  20  40  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  82  65  85 /  20  40  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  81  61  84 /  10  40  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR/ABM


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