Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 291856
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
256 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Tuesday)...low level NE flow will
continue through tonight, keeping drier air in place overhead.
Despite clear skies, the drier air will limit fog formation early
tomorrow. Locations that see rain this afternoon/evening will have
a better chance of some reduced visibilities tomorrow morning.
Tomorrow will be another warm day with highs pressure overhead and
temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Clouds will
increase over the eastern tier of the forecast area late Tuesday,
and a few scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during
the evening hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)...High pressure will
slowly weaken and move southwest...with an upper level trough and
associated low pressure moving east through the Ohio Valley.
Wednesday...there is enough instability for a few scattered showers
and thunderstorms to develop...though expect the highest area of
coverage to be in NE TN and along the higher elevations in east TN.
Enough dry air is available Wednesday afternoon to keep any
thunderstorms below severe criteria.

Thursday...a frontal boundary will swing through the area. Models
fairly consistent with bringing the boundary through late afternoon
and early evening. Models disagree...however...on how much moisture
and lift will be present with this front. Have gone with chance
scattered showers and thunderstorms through early evening. Winds are
20 kts or less throughout the low and mid levels...with PW values
around 1.5 through the afternoon. Could expect locally heavy rain
and maybe some gusty downburst winds. Otherwise...not expecting
anything too severe with Thursday`s storms.

Friday through Monday...temperatures will drop in to the 80`s across
most of the area as NW flow sets up behind the front. An upper level
ridge settles over the region with high pressure...mostly clear
skies...and dry weather expected. Temperatures are expected to
remain in the 80`s to lower 90`s until the beginning of the next
work week as low level flow brings warm Gulf air back in to the
area.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             70  93  71  92 /   0  10  10  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  68  92  69  89 /   0  10  10  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       69  92  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              64  90  66  87 /  10  30  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

EMH/JW



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