Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 182012
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
312 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWS SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THIS SHOULD
EXIT BY 00Z AND WILL CARRY NO POPS AFTER THAT TIME. THE QUESTION
OVERNIGHT WILL BE WHETHER CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO ERODE AS MUCH AS THE
GFS SAYS THEY WILL...OR IF THEY WILL HANG IN THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT AS SHOWN BY THE NAM. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM AS UPSTREAM
SATELLITE DOES NOT LOOK PROMISING FOR CLEARING ANY TIME SOON...AND
THE RAP LOOKS CLOSER TO THE NAM. WILL ALSO LEAN TEMPS ON THE WARM
SIDE OF MOS TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUN ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA BY MORNING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SW
AHEAD OF SOUTHERN STREAM VORT MAX AND JET STREAK. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
REACH A CATEGORY OR TWO HIGHER THAN TODAY. ANY PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...A FAST MOVING SYSTEM
THAT IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY WILL MOVE FROM
THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE
SOUTH OF TN AND AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S FRIDAY EVENING AND AREAS TO THE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD
SEE SOME SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. LOWS WILL ONLY
DROP TO NEAR FREEZING SO AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...LESS
THAN ONE INCH. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING TO
THE 40S TO NEAR 50. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED.
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL HELP ANOTHER SYSTEM
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A NEW SYSTEM ALSO DEVELOPS
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA FIRST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM PULLS OUT AND THEN THE STRONGER SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO FORM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY TUESDAY AND
THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKE STATES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN MORE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             33  49  37  50 /   0  10  70  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  29  47  34  46 /  10   0  50  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  47  34  46 /   0   0  50  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              28  46  30  43 /  10   0  30  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/TD



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