Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 191828
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
128 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure strengthens over the western Atlantic today as a
warm front slowly approaches from the south. The front is
expected to lift into the region late tonight, possibly lifting
through the Tri State area on Tuesday. A cold front approaches
Wednesday and moves south of the area Wednesday night into
Thursday. High pressure builds across New England on Friday.
Unsettled conditions follow for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Leading edge of some light rain ahead of an approaching warm
front working into far western portions of Orange County in the
Lower Hudson Valley. Expect widespread light rain across the
area working in from west to east this afternoon into early this
evening. Clouds have overspread all but the twin forks of
eastern Long Island and SE CT, but will do in the next hour.

Temps are expected to be 5-10 degrees above normal today ranging
from the lower 40s well NW to lower 50s in the NYC metro. There
been some slight adjustments.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Strong SE ridging continues through Tue with a Bermuda high
parked over the western Atlantic. Challenging forecast for Tue
wrt warm fropa. Rain continues into the evening as the shortwave
tracks through New England and isentropic lift becomes more
widespread. The organized rain is expected to exit around
midnight or so, although light rain or drizzle is then expected
overnight with saturated low levels and mid level drying.
Additionally, areas of fog are expected to develop and it could
become dense in coastal locations tonight.

All available guidance is indicating the front pushes through
late tonight or Tue morning, however pattern recognition
suggests it may only partially move through at the sfc. The low
associated with the front will be well west of the Appalachians
and typically warm fronts have a very hard time completely
moving through the local area in this type of scenario due to
the colder coastal waters. There is a 25-35kt LLJ between
1000-975mb late tonight/Tue morning which may be enough to push
it through at the sfc. Have higher confidence that the front
lifts through western portions of the Tri-State area, but lower
confidence that it lifts through CT. Thus, there is high bust
potential on high temps Tue.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Anomalously strong ridge across the southeast US/western Atlantic
will be in place on Wednesday. The ridge will largely stay in place
through the end of the week, but the core gets suppressed a bit with
a more westerly flow aloft over the northeast. Several pieces of
energy/shortwaves are progged to flow out of the western US trough
and around the periphery of the ridge late this week and into the
upcoming weekend. The timing of these waves in the flow is difficult
to resolve at present time, but there will likely be periods of
unsettled conditions late this week into the upcoming weekend.

Tuesday night into Wednesday...Moist and unseasonably warm air mass
will likely lead to the develop of stratus and fog Tuesday night. It
is a big early to determine if the fog will be dense, but enough
confidence based on BUFKIT profiles and the anomalous nature of this
environment to include of areas of fog. The fog should mix out
Wednesday morning except for coastal areas such as Long Island and
southeast CT. This is due to the cooler water temperatures and a
stronger inversion above the surface. Surface temperatures will be
held down a bit here due to the ocean influence and potential for
fog/stratus to linger. Highs range from the middle 50s to near 60s
degrees. Elsewhere, the warmest day of 2018 is likely for Wednesday
as temperatures warm into the upper 60s inland and near 70 or even
lower 70s for NYC metro and NE NJ. See climate section below for
record highs.

Wednesday night into Thursday night...There is overall excellent
agreement among the 00z models and the last few runs of the
deterministic and ensemble guidance for a cold front to sink south
of the area Wednesday night into Thursday. The ridge breaks down
just enough to allow the front to move through the area. The models
do differ on the amount of shower activity with the front and then
again with any overrunning on Thursday as high pressure builds
across New England. Will continue with chance PoPs until Thursday
night when there is enough surface ridging to suppress the front and
moisture well to our south. Temperatures on Thursday will be about
10-15 degrees cooler than Wednesday, but still well above normal for
this time of year.

Friday into the upcoming weekend...Active and unsettled weather
pattern will continue as several shortwaves move around the
periphery of the southeast ridge. The best chance of rain based on a
blend of the latest guidance appears to be Friday into Friday night
and then again on Sunday. However, there are significant differences
among the GFS/GEFS/ECMWF/EPS which indicate potential for rain on
Saturday as well. Temperatures will continue unseasonably mild
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure continues to slide east as a warm front
approaches the area later this evening and tonight.

VFR conditions with southerly winds 5 to 10 kt. Stratus has
overspread much of the region and rain will move in from the
west late. MVFR ceilings are possible by mid to late afternoon,
after 20-22Z. S winds around 10 kt are forecast, and these
winds lighten by evening.

MVFR to IFR conditions are likely tonight as ceilings lower and
fog develops. Cannot rule out LIFR ceilings and visibilities at
times as the night progresses. LLWS in the forecast most
terminals for SW winds around 2 kft at 35-40 kt.

Low conditions continue Tuesday morning, however some
improvement is expected by mid to late morning. Uncertain to if
we actually reach VFR before 18Z.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments are possible this afternoon and
evening for stratus/MVFR ceilings. Timing remains uncertain.

KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments are possible this afternoon and
evening for stratus/MVFR ceilings. Timing remains uncertain.

KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments are possible this afternoon and
evening for stratus/MVFR ceilings. Timing remains uncertain.

KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments are possible this afternoon and
evening for stratus/MVFR ceilings. Timing remains uncertain.

KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments are possible this afternoon and
evening for stratus/MVFR ceilings. Timing remains uncertain.

KISP TAF Comments: Amendments are possible this afternoon and
evening for stratus/MVFR ceilings. Timing remains uncertain.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.Tue...MVFR or IFR possible at night, otherwise VFR with SW
wind G15-20KT possible.
.Wed...Mostly VFR, patchy fog possible. Chance of showers with MVFR
late in the day. SW wind G15-20KT possible. Winds shift to the N at
night.
.Thu...MVFR in rain. NE wind G15 KT possible.
.Fri...CHC MVFR in rain.
.Sat...CHC MVFR in rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Tranquil conditions will prevail across the waters into this
evening as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic. An
increasing SW flow will develop tonight and continue on Tue as
the offshore high strengthens and low pressure moves through the
Midwest and into the Great Lakes region. A strong inversion will
develop over the waters due to a WAA pattern keeping winds below
SCA levels, although seas on the ocean east of Fire Island
Inlet are expected to build to marginal levels tonight and Tue.
Have issued an SCA for ANZ353 & 350 starting at midnight tonight
and continuing through the day Tue.

A moderate SW flow on the ocean waters may continue seas above
5 ft Tuesday night into Wednesday. There may also be marginal
SCA gusts on the ocean. A cold front moves across the waters
Wednesday night with winds and seas subsiding. Sub-SCA
conditions are then expected through the end of the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Less than 1/4 inch of rainfall is expected from this afternoon
through tonight. Several rounds of rain are possible late this
week into the upcoming weekend, but no significant hydrologic
impacts are anticipated at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Temperatures may approach or break record highs in a few spots
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Record Highs for Tuesday February 20, 2018

Location........Record/Year
Newark..............70/1939
Bridgeport..........54/1991
Central Park........69/1939
LaGuardia...........63/1943
JFK.................61/1949
Islip...............62/2016

Record Highs for Wednesday February 21, 2018

Location........Record/Year
Newark..............69/1953
Bridgeport..........59/2002
Central Park........68/1930
LaGuardia...........68/1953
JFK.................63/2002
Islip...............63/2002

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Tuesday
     for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...24
NEAR TERM...24/DW
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DS
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...



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