Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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606
FXUS61 KOKX 221753
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
153 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
CLOUDS INCREASE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF
A DIGGING TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH A GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH COLD
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY MORE MILD AIRMASS WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE JET STREAM WILL BE PUSHING NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AND
REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. AT
THE SURFACE...A PARENT LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AND INTO ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY AND MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PARENT LOW PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
LOCAL REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE ABOUT 8 TO 10
DEGREES C BY NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY COMPARED TO
FORECAST VALUES ON SUNDAY. LIKEWISE...1000 TO 850 MB MIXING RATIOS
INCREASE THROUGH THE COURSE OF LONG TERM...WITH FORECAST VALUES OF
10 TO 13 G/KG TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

THESE PARAMETERS POINT TO A TRANSITION TO AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS DURING THE LONG TERM. THESE WILL FEED INSTABILITY
DURING THE DAY THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT DUE TO THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR THAT WILL WORK THEIR
WAY SOUTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. IN
ADDITION...BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...IT WILL BE THE
THIRD NIGHT OF ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP. THIS WILL CYCLE WILL LIKELY REPEAT THE FOLLOWING FEW
NIGHTS THEREAFTER INTO DAYBREAK OF THE FOLLOWING MORNING.

OVERALL...WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NYC WITH UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TO THE
EAST ESPECIALLY ALONG IMMEDIATE SHORELINES WITH ONSHORE FLOW. NIGHT
TIME LOWS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND THE FOLLOWING
NIGHTS THEREAFTER WITH VALUES MOSTLY IN THE 60S AS A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPSTATE NY WILL TRACK THRU THE AREA THIS AFTN.
HI PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W ON SAT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PROB OF AN ISOLD SHRA THRU 21Z.

WNW FLOW BECOMES NW AFT THE FROPA IN THE 20-23Z TIME PERIOD.
SPEEDS AND GUST FREQUENCY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN BACK TO
THE W AROUND 10KT ON SAT. STRONGER SW FLOW KJFK DUE TO SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE FRONT AND RESULTANT WIND SHIFT
MAY BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AS THE FEATURE APPROACHES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE FRONT AND RESULTANT WIND SHIFT
MAY BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AS THE FEATURE APPROACHES.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE FRONT AND RESULTANT WIND SHIFT
MAY BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AS THE FEATURE APPROACHES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE FRONT AND RESULTANT WIND SHIFT
MAY BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AS THE FEATURE APPROACHES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE FRONT AND RESULTANT WIND SHIFT
MAY BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AS THE FEATURE APPROACHES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE FRONT AND RESULTANT WIND SHIFT
MAY BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AS THE FEATURE APPROACHES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT...VFR. SW WINDS 10-15KT.
.SUN...VFR. SW WINDS 10-20KT.
.MON...VFR. SW WINDS 10-20KT.
.TUE...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN FOG/STRATUS. SW WINDS.
.WED...POCKETS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN FOG/STRATUS. SW
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS 25
TO 30 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH STRONGEST WIND EXPECTED NEAR
THE SHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WIND IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY...WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE WATERS WITH OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. WINDS AND
SEAS INCREASE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN PARENT LOW DEEPENING IN
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE. SCA IN THIS TIME
PERIODS BECOMES MORE PROBABLE AS WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 25 KT ACROSS OCEAN WATERS AND OCEAN SEAS INCREASE TO
5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO GROWTH/SPREAD OF ANY
FIRES THAT DEVELOP. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY
TO NEAR 30 PERCENT...AND W-NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-30 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WITH MARGINAL RH VALUES AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME
RAIN SHOWERS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY RED FLAG HEADLINES.

SATURDAY COULD ALSO BE A DAY OF CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR NYC
METRO...SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...WITH MIN RH AGAIN IN THE 20S
AND NW-W WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/JM
NEAR TERM...BC/FIG
SHORT TERM...FIG
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...FIG/JM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...FIG/JM



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