Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 271806
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
106 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY.
THE HIGH MOVES EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL NY STATE SE ACROSS EASTERN
PA AND CONTD MVG NE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS WAS ADVECTING
NE FROM THE NJ / NY BORDER SE ACROSS METRO NJ AS OF 1722Z. ALTHO THE
HIGHEST POPS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT EAST ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FURTHER WEST...WHICH
IS WHY POPS WERE LEFT IN THIS NEAR TERM UPDATE.

PRECIP TYPE WILL REMAIN MIXED UNTIL AROUND 19Z...WHEN RAIN IS
FAVORED ALONG THE COAST FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTN.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS AFTERNOON/S HIGH TEMPS OF 35-40 DEGS...AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...AN UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AN ADDITIONAL SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA AS TEMPS FALL TO ARND OR BELOW 32 DEGS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
ALTHO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST...CAN NOT RULE OUT A DUSTING.

FRIDAY...A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYS WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER LVL TROUGH BRINGING A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S TO START THE DAY BEFORE RISING INTO THE 30S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS ON TAP WITH TEMPS AVERAGING 10
DEGS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO PACIFIC NW TROUGH THAT
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES PASSING TO THE NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH THAT
MOVES OUT OF THE PAC NW...ALSO TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE PERIOD
MOVES EAST AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. A WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED...SUBTLE TIMING AND POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THIS
FORECAST AS THE FRONT SETTLES AND STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH.

TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM UP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN
TEMPS FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

MOSTLY MVFR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE AS VFR
COULD POTENTIALLY PREVAIL. SHOULD MVFR PREVAIL THIS
EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT TEMPORARY VFR CONDS DO NOT OCCUR
AS INDICATED IN FORECAST.

BACK EDGE OF PCPN IS JUST ABOUT OVER THE CITY AS OF 18Z...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE. EXPECTING PCPN TO BE COMING TO AN END FOR
MOST SPOTS BY SUNSET.

WINDS PRIMARILY BELOW 10 KT. DIRECTION SHOULD FAVOR NORTH OF 310
MAGNETIC. HOVER...AT KEWR...IT PROBABLY FAVORS SOUTH OF 310.

FOR FRIDAY...VFR AND NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRI THROUGH TUE...
.FRI-SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST WATERS. ALTHO WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE INTO THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
IS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.

ON FRIDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS THE HIGH BUILDS CLOSER
TO THE WATERS AND A FEW GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ONCE AGAIN.

OCEAN SEAS OUT EAST COULD AGAIN REACH MARGINAL SCA LEVELS SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT VIA A MODERATE SW FLOW. SCA LEVEL OCEAN
SEAS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MON AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GC/MET
HYDROLOGY...PW







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