Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 211630
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1230 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH THEN
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TO CLOSE THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHRA HAVE FLARED BACK UP OVER SE CT ALONG AN OLD BOUNDARY. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PA IS DISSIPATING AS IT HEADS EAST. BASED
ON THIS...TRENDED FORECAST TO DRY WEST WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

CIRRUS SHIELD HAS BLOWN OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE THERE WAS SOME
CLEARING EARLIER...AND HOLES IN CLOUD COVER TO THE EAST HAVE
FILLED. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS DO NOT SUPPORT IDEA OF MUCH...IF
ANY...IN THE WAY OF CLEARING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON OR SO. AS A
RESULT...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO AT MOST UPPER 70S DUE TO THE IMPACT
OF CLOUD COVER.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND
AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING
THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO
START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL PASS TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING...AND PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

IFR CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST ARE SHOWING
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT...AND MOST SHOULD GO MVFR BY 16Z. KHPN STILL
LIFR AS OF 15Z AND WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO IMPROVE.
TERMINALS TO THE EAST HAVE BKN MVFR CIGS AS OF 15Z.

THIS AFTERNOON...BKN MVFR CIGS MAY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST 18Z TO LIFT
TO VFR...AND EVEN THEN CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT MVFR CIGS HOLDING
ON LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON THAN FCST. ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THAT COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KISP/KGON.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT WESTERN
TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS WITH
COLD FROPA. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KISP/KBDR
THIS EVENING...AND LIKELY MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT KGON...UNTIL
COLD FROPA BETWEEN 04Z-08Z FROM WEST TO EAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MON NIGHT.
.TUE-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAS BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 FT ON ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...AND FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT SE SWELLS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
THERE. ELSEWHERE WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SOME GUSTS DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH
20-25 KT AT TIMES...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE
AN SCA AT THIS TIME.

WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SWELLS COULD KEEP SEAS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AT SCA LEVELS. AFTER THAT...A RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF -SHRA THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...GOODMAN/NV
MARINE...MALOIT/BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/BC






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