Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 300855
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
455 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW
ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID LVL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING A BATCH OF RADAR
RETURNS ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO ERN PA THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. 00Z KOKX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH
ONLY 0.12 PW. LLVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO ERN LI AND CT WHERE FLOW
OFF THE OCEAN HAS PROVIDED SOME MOISTENING. ELSEWHERE...TD/S WERE
STILL IN THE TEENS. AS A RESULT...PCPN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
SCT AND LGT. THE COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE 00Z
MODELS TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN THRU
12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS
BOTH THE BL AND MID LVLS WARM. PCPN CHCS MAINLY TIL 16Z...THEN
THEY DROP QUICKLY.

THE CDFNT OVER OH AT 7Z REACHES ORANGE COUNTY PER THE 12Z NAM
RIGHT ABOUT 18Z. IT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CLEARS THE AREA
BY 00Z. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW HRS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE DARK. MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE DATA
SUGGESTS WIND WILL KEEPS THINGS SLIGHTLY STIRRED UP...THEREBY
KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT...LOWS CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WERE USED WITH MINS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. IF WINDS
DECOUPLE...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WILL NEED TO BE CHOPPED OFF THE FCST
ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE
AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z
WED. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SPEED...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE EXACT N-S TRACK. THE
ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST S...WITH THE NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED CLOSELY
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS CNTRL NJ. THE SREF MEAN WAS SLIGHLY
FURTHER N. POPS FOR INCREASED TO JUST BLW LIKELY BY LATE AFTN.
THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT
A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW. WITH THE
BL INITIALLY WARM...LGT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS
STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. SRN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM WRN
NJ ZONES THRU THE CITY AND ONTO LI...TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM FOR A
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN...OR IT MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW
END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING STRAIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...17Z TO 22Z.

VFR...EXCEPT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW WITH LOCAL
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...11Z TO 18Z...WEST TO EAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL AND WILL NOT LAST MOST OF THE
TIME IN THE TEMPO GROUP.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST...280 TO 300 TRUE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
MORE FREQUENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHEST GUSTS 20
TO 25 KT...MOST GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS END THIS EVENING...00Z TO
03Z.

          NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION...LIKELY WILL
BE ALL RAIN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND
18Z. WIND 250 TO 270 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION...MAY BE ALL
RAIN...OR BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX. NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 250 TO 270 TRUE WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW...AND MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...5SM...2500
FT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
25 KT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW...AND MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...5SM...2500
FT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WIND. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
22 KT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE ALL LIGHT SNOW AND MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR...4SM...2000 FT.
LITTLE ACCUMULATION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT....AROUND 18Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND
22 KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING...AND MAY BE ALL RAIN. OCCASIONAL AND MINIMAL GUSTS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...TO AROUND 19 KT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF GUSTS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT....AROUND 20Z. WIND 270 TO 290 TRUE WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING -RA/SN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -SN.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS.
.FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WIND INCREASE TODAY TO SCA LVLS...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVE...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABV SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ON ALL WATERS TUE AS LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY INTO
THE REGION. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRACE AMTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE
NGT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC



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