Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 012324
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
524 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 147 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

Rain event will wind down this afternoon, leaving 3/4-1" across
much of the area, maybe up 1-1.5 inches in the HOP area. Tonight
we`ll see the colder air slamming in (strong winds turn
northwesterly and gust thru the 20s) as the bulk moisture
departs, but the wrap around may wrap some light snow/flurries
across the area, particularly the north/east, so we`ll carry that
slgt chance pop mention, as inherited, thru the overnight
hours/early tmrw am.

After that, the system departs, drier air works in, and it`s much
colder still tmrw-tmrw nite. Temps will then start to moderate as
we move into/toward the mid week, back closer to seasonal norms.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 309 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

The med range models have shown better consistency with the overall
mid/upper flow pattern of late, and showed only slight timing
differences between sfc features, therefore forecast confidence has
increased.

Split flow will continue early in the extended period, with a storm
system moving along the Gulf coast and FL, and increasingly cyclonic
flow aloft over most of the ern half of the CONUS. Driven by this,
an arctic frontal boundary is due to move through the PAH forecast
area Wed afternoon. Atmospheric profiles appear to be warm enough
for rain only, if it happens at all with the fropa.

Wed night, shrtwv energy embedded in the longwave pattern will begin
to sweep esewd from the nrn Plains into the Midwest, which should
provide adequate lift for the available moisture aloft to generate a
mostly snowfall event across the area. Some pcpn will probably start
out as rain across southernmost parts of sern MO/wrn KY, then go all
snow after midnight. Some measurable snow may linger past sunrise
Thu in the srn half of the region. At this time, it appears up to an
inch of snow is possible, mainly over the higher elevations of the
MO Ozarks.

After a frigid Thu/Thu night, a warming trend should commence under
a sfc ridge of high pressure, and slightly anticyclonic nwrly flow
aloft late in the week.

The med range deterministic models show very good agreement with
their depiction of a fairly vigorous mid level shrtwv trof and
developing sfc low pressure system moving into the region on Sun.
Atmospheric profiles and sfc temps suggest all rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 525 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

KEVV and KOWB will remain IFR transitioning to mvfr prior to 12z
Monday...then finally vfr by late aftn. Otherwise strong gusty
west winds will shift to the northwest as we progress through the
TAF. KPAH and KCGI will have similar winds but mainly mvfr until
late afternoon when vfr should return as well.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...KH





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