Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 311828
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
128 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

A weak disturbance moving into the lower MS river valley is/will
result in smallish overrunning Pops for mainly srn ptns SEMO and
far swky thru this evening. Meanwhile, a 2ndary trof axis will
evolve upon approach Friday, making passage this weekend. That too
will result in smallish Pops for the area, ending in the east by
12Z Sunday as the primary trof clears. Until then, temps
moderating to the mid-upr 80s for highs, and mid-upr 60s for lows,
with corresponding dew points in the 60s, will warrant a
continuing slgt-small chance Pop in the short term portion of the
forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday Night)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

The beginning of the extended forecast period places the WFO PAH
forecast area under increasing influence of the Central/Southern
Plains ridge axis, effectively stopping sufficient lift for
convective activity.

The passage of the middle/upper level trough through the area does
leave a closed circulation over the Southeast U.S., but its
influence is too far displaced to impact the local area, with the
exception of some potential cloudiness over Kentucky.

The medium range models, in various degrees, flatten the upper ridge
early next week, placing the WFO PAH near the base of the westerlies
and the ridge.  A series of minor impulses work toward the area, but
remain sufficiently out of phase to provide focused lift. By next
Wednesday evening, a progressive shortwave moves toward the WFO PAH
forecast are in broad southerly flow.. Could see an adjustment in
the PoPs for next Thursday and Friday time period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 122 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

A disturbance moving south of the flight terminals will result in
overrunning low vfr cigs for kcgi/kpah, and perhaps tempo or
conditional clouding into the mvfr range briefly late this pm or
evening. Also, late night-early tmrw morning mvfr fog is possible,
at all terminals.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




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