Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 220858
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
458 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT RECENTLY PASSED
THROUGH THE AREA WILL RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE WARMER
LAKES MAINTAINS A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK AROUND 4KFT.
ANY LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MORE SHALLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS AND INITIATE A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
AT LEAST TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG INCLUDED ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. BASED ON A BLEND OF LATEST
GUIDANCE...DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH
TO TO WHERE FROST WOULD NOT BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER...THIS BEARS
WATCHING ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE DEWPOINTS TREND LOWER.



&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS ABOUT AS QUIET AS CAN BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION. A SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST...BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REIGN SUPREME
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WARM LAKE ERIE HAS ALLOWED MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SOME IFR
CIGS AT FKL/DUJ...BUT DO NOT THINK THESE LOWER CIGS WILL MAKE IT
INTO OTHER TERMINALS. MAY BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH
VCSH AT FKL/DUJ...BUT CURRENTLY HAVE THIS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. AS WINDS START TO BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER
SUNRISE...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE
ALONG WITH RISE IN HEIGHT. ONCE WINDS GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVNG IN FROM THE WEST AROUND SUNSET...CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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