Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 230208 AAD
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1008 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
10PM UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TO STUBBORNLY
DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. THE OVERALL TREND HAS
BEEN A WEAKENING IN INTENSITY...BUT WITH SURFACE TDS IN THE LOWER
70S...RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE. LATEST HIRES DATA IS
SHOWING A DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS
EVERYTHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. TEMPS UPDATED TO LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT CAPE
VALUES RATHER LOW TODAY...EVEN WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR
30 KTS. WITH THIS IN MIND...OPTED TO KEEP ONLY CHANCE THUNDER
WORDING...AND THINK THAT FOR THE MOST PART STORMS WILL REMAIN
UNDER SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

WHILE PWATS IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WILL STILL BE IN THE 2 INCH
RANGE...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THESE VALUES IS EXPECTED. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION FOR ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE HWO SINCE ANY
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS COULD
CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT OVERALL THINK THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL
VERSUS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE TOMORROW. WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE
CARRIED. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH KEEPS US CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EXITING SHRTWV WL CONT LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS INTO SAT NGT...THEN
STG RIDGING WL BLD IN ACRS THE GT LKS/OH VLY RGN THRU MON WITH DRY
WEA EXPD. TEMPS WL AVG A FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING WL PERSIST INTO MID WK WITH DRY AND WRM WEA. A CROSSING
SHRTWV AND CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A THU PASSAGE WITH CHC POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS...FOLLOWED BY BLDG HIGH PRES TO FINISH THE WK. ABV AVG
TEMPS WL RTN TO NR OR BLO AVG LVLS AFT THE LT WK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINTAINED A VCSH MENTION WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KMGW AND KDUJ
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. AFTER DIURNAL SHWRS SUBSIDE...WITH LLVL
MOISTURE POOLING...EXPG IFR FOG TO DVLP OVRNGT INTO ERLY SAT AS
WELL. A PD OF MVFR DIURNAL CU CIGS ARE EXPD SAT MRNG BEFORE VFR
RTNS BY AFTN. A SHWR IS PSBL SAT BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A
TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ERLY SUN MRNG FOG RSTRNS ARE PSBL.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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