Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231405
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
905 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF
A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WK SHRTWV ACRS NW PA WL CONT SHWR CHCS THRU THE MRNG. OTRW EXP
MAINLY DRY WEA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH MAINLY CLDY CONDS WL
CONT. THE NXT SHRTWV IN SW FLOW WL ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS
RGN LT TDA INTO TNGT. WITH AMPLE DEEP MSTR...UPR SPPRT...AND LLVL
JET EXP WIDESPREAD RAIN. MRNG RAOBS SPPRT HIGHS IN THE 50S...TO
LWR 60S TWD MGW. LTL TEMP DCR IS EXPD TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON
AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH
FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. GUSTS ARND 40 MPH ARE
LIKELY...AND A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE PSBL IF DEEP MXG OCCURS.

COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT
LKS AND UPR MIDWEST. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR CHCS WL BE
MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK CONNECTIONS OR
SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR
TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG
SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MATURE QUICKLY AND MOVE NORTH
OR NORTHEAST ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE STRONGLY IN THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MAJOR STORM
INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER...WITH AN
OPEN WAVE GOING OUT TO SEA AND FAILING TO LATCH ONTO THE STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRAVEL TO AND
FROM THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR AIRPORTS AND HIGHWAYS
WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF STRONGER MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE LOCAL CWA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POTENTIAL STORM...FOLKS TRAVELING TO
OR FROM THE EAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS.

OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK...INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. PRESENTLY DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A PROGRESSIVE
CLIPPER-LIKE WAVE COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF SNOW TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT SRLY SFC WINDS. AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH INCREASING SERLY FLOW. EXPECTING MVFR RESTRICTIONS
LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM FRONT RAIN...SOME DROPS TO
IFR ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR THE NRN TERMINALS. GUSTY SRLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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