Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 240912
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
212 AM PDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...General Overview...Mostly
clear skies and dry conditions in the short term.  Some cumulus
buildups will be possible along the Blues and Wallowa Mountains
today, but do not anticipate any precipitation in the short term.
Skies will start to become a bit more cloudy across Washington as we
head into Saturday. Prior to Saturday expect temperatures to be on
an increase, with mid to upper 80s as the highs today across the
lower elevations, and lower 70s to lower 80s for the mountains. Each
day the high temperature will increase by a degree or two until
Saturday, when highs should peak in the lower to mid 90s, with 80s
mountains. Winds will pick up out of the west Saturday afternoon and
evening.  Right now wind look to be 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30
mph. This is mainly across the lower elevations, but breezy wind
will be expected in the central Oregon area as well.

Technical Synopsis...High pressure set up over the Gulf of Alaska
will continue to provide dry northwest flow to the forecast area.
500mb heights will slowly increase over the coming days, allowing
for the warmer temperatures to come, but the ridge itself will still
remain offshore.  The remnants of a weak disturbance will clip the
eastern portion of the CWA today, allowing for the cumulus buildups
mentioned in the overview.  Moisture will continue to overrun the
ridge and be forced east of the area in the coming days, with maybe
some occasional mid and high clouds across the WA Cascades and
northeast OR.  As we move into Saturday a weather system to the
north will suppress the ridge to the west and transition the area
into a westerly flow.  But this will be met with increased winds as
a 30-50kt 700mb jet and a 30kts 850mb jet will align east of the
Cascades over the lower elevations.  These stronger winds will
coincide with peak heating to allow for the winds to mix down to the
surface.  Weber

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Wednesday...Dry weather pattern
continues with west to southwest flow aloft.  EC/GFS diverge by late
Monday with EC bringing an upper level trof across the area, while
GFS maintains the westerly flow and delays trof passage until after
Wednesday.  Ensemble models also show quite a bit of variation by
Tuesday as well.  None of the models have much in the way of
moisture, so the only basic difference will be temperature patterns
and wind. For now a blend between the models seems in order.


&&

.AVIATION...12z TAFS...VFR conditions to prevail with SKC and
normal diurnal wind patterns.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  84  52  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  85  58  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  88  57  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  89  56  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  87  54  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  86  55  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  83  44  84  44 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  80  47  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  80  47  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  91  59  92  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

89/79/79



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