Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 261644 AAA
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
944 AM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Updated aviation discussion

.UPDATE...Satellite imagery continues to show a closed low over
northern California that is sending moisture and several weak
disturbances into Central Oregon and the eastern Oregon mountains
this morning. Radar shows a band of showers in an arc from
Granite to Long Creek to Mitchell to Prineville and Bend. Several
stations have reported rain with amounts up to a tenth of an inch.
Models continue to show ample moisture and instability in those
areas this afternoon and tonight so have kept isolated to
scattered thunderstorms in Central Oregon and the eastern Oregon
mountains through this evening and a slight chance of showers in
Central Oregon and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in
the eastern mountains overnight. Storms should have some rain
with them but amounts will be generally under a tenth of an inch.
Temperatures will continue to be hot and generally a degree or
two warmer than yesterday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s
in the Columbia Basin with mid 80s to lower 90s elsewhere. Winds
will mostly be under 10 mph, but the Columbia Gorge and Kittitas
valley will reach 10 to 20 mph this afternoon. Perry

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFs...VFR conditions can be expected for the next
24 hours. Mid/High level clouds will stream over the area
today and tonight as a system in northern California moves
eastward. BDN/RDM may see a thunderstorm before the evening is
done. However, thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain scattered
so will use VCTS for now. Winds will be less than 10 kts with some
higher gusts during the afternoon, except KDLS where winds will be
10 to 15 kts with a few gusts to 25 kts.  Winds are expected to
decrease overnight.  Earle

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 AM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017/

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...Water vapor satellite
imagery loop shows mid level wrap around moisture streaming across
central Oregon, which is on the northern flank of a mid/upper level
low over northern California. Elevated instability associated with
this moisture will combine with daytime surface heat to trigger
scattered showers and thunderstorms in Deschutes, Crook, Grant and
Wallowa Counties with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in
the northern Blue Mountains. All models show the mid/upper level low
transitioning to an open trough tonight and moving northeast across
southeast and east central Oregon through tonight and Thursday. As
such dynamic lift associated with the trough will give a slight
chance of thunderstorms in the northern Blue Mountains overnight
into Thursday morning. The trough then exits the region Thursday
afternoon for isolated showers and thunderstorms ending in Wallowa
County by sundown. A SW flow aloft kicks in Thursday night
through Friday night for dry conditions. Polan

LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...The operational GFS
continues to be somewhat of an outlier, keeping the ridge further
south with southwest flow across the region. Thus, the GFS continues
to advertise daily afternoon/evening convection across the higher
elevations. The ECMWF/Canadian depict the ridge further west and
north keeping dry conditions area wide. The 00Z GFS ensemble shows
more members similar to the Canadian/ECMWF. Thus, will retain a dry
forecast for the long term, with some cumulus buildups possible
each afternoon/early evening in marginal mid layer moisture field.
Hot conditions can be expected, with highs in the mid/upper 90s for
the lowest elevations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  95  65  95  61 /   0  10  10   0
ALW  98  69  97  66 /  10  10  10   0
PSC  99  65  98  61 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  99  66  96  62 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  99  66  97  63 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  96  63  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  92  55  91  53 /  20  30   0   0
LGD  92  58  93  55 /  20  20  10  10
GCD  94  61  94  59 /  30  20  10  10
DLS  95  66  90  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Thursday
     for ORZ642-644-645.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
     evening for ORZ611-640.

WA...None.
&&

$$

83/80/80



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