Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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331
FXUS66 KPDT 151734
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1034 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.UPDATED AVIATION.

.AVIATION...18Z TAFs...VFR conditions prevail for all sites. Winds
will pick up at DLS/PDT/BDN/RDM/ALW around 20-21Z at 20-25 knots.
Winds will be lighter heading into the early evening hours down to
5-10 knots. Haze roams around the RDM/BDN area due to the Cram
fire, but don`t have high confidence that it will go over the
sites at this time. No precip or ceiling issues anticipated.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 108 PM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025/

SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...Hot temperatures will
give way to more seasonable temperatures by tomorrow as an upper-
level wave clips the forecast area to the northeast. Winds will
ramp up as the axis of this system treks through this evening,
before a cooler air mass settles in for tomorrow. Winds will shift
more north and east as a result of this system`s passage, before
temperatures gradually trend upward for the rest of the work week.

As far as active headlines are concerned, the ongoing Heat Advisory
will end tonight, and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect as hot
temperatures and dry conditions coincide with gusty winds as a
result of this oncoming system. Looking at obs this afternoon,
confidence is not great that we will ultimately meet criteria, as
RHs are a bit more elevated today with the slightly cooler
temperatures, but with winds expected to be as gusty as they are,
feel like the RFW is appropriate to at the very least highlight
elevated conditions. Evans/74

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...Ensembles are gradually
coming into better agreement on the synoptic pattern through next
weekend after a long period of uncertainty. Overall trend appears to
be that of a short warming pattern followed by a series of
shortwaves, arriving Thursday and then Saturday, that could
potentially spawn critical fire weather conditions across the
forecast area. These systems are generally northwesterly in origin,
which would typically signal a dampened thunderstorm threat, however
the dry air mass coming in from the NW will work to crater RHs and
up winds to potentially create conditions ripe for Red Flag
Warnings.

Confidence on the issuance of future RFWs based on ensemble synoptic
patterns alone is low (30-40%), as details on exact RH and wind
readings will need some assistance from higher res guidance, but
should point out that the NBM is already suggesting RHs in the low
20s and teens both Thursday and Saturday, with wind gusts in the 20-
25 mph range (likely to increase the closer we get to each day). By
the tail end of the period, ensemble clusters generally suggest a
continued troughing pattern, which will invite cooler temps into the
forecast area, helping to partially negate conditions prone to
wildfire spread, should such solutions verify. Evans/74

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  87  57  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  86  61  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  89  57  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  89  61  93  63 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  90  57  94  62 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  88  57  94  62 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  86  47  92  53 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  81  55  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  85  51  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  93  64  97  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...95