Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 310217
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
717 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...A FEW CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED TODAY OVER THE CWA ARE
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING. THERE ARE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN MFR`S CWA
OTHERWISE THERE ARE SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS SOUTH OF THE CWA IN MFR`S
AND BOI`S FORECAST AREAS. EXPECT A CLEAR NIGHT WITH MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. TODAY`S HIGHS REACHED AT LEAST 100 IN MOST AREAS WITH
90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT A REPEAT OF TODAY ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER SOME MONSOON MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL REMAIN HOT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH NOT AS HOT ON SUNDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN...THE NORTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS...THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THERE ARE ALSO SOME FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES/RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT. PLEASE READ THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. 88

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE
CONDITIONS HOT AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MIN RH`S WILL LIKELY BE
BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS ALL FIRE WEATHER ZONES...WITH SEVERAL LOWER
ELEVATIONS FALLING BELOW 10 PERCENT.  WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON ARE
FORECAST TO BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS OR/WA639 TO CREATE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

IN ADDITION THE HAINES THREAT WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MODELS CURRENTLY SUPPORT A HIGH HAINES INDEX THROUGH
SATURDAY OVER OR640 AND OR642. DUE TO THE WEST FORK FIRE MOP UP THAT
CONTINUES HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FROM TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THESE ZONES.

MODELS ALSO HINT AT A HIGH HAINES FOR THE WA 640 AND 643 ZONE OVER
THE BLUE CREEK FIRE AS WELL FOR TOMORROW AND SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR THESE AREAS...SO WILL STICK WITH A WATCH.

LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE WILL BE AT THERE BEST
FROM SUNDAY ON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY SATURDAY OVER CENTRAL OREGON...BUT THE STORMS SHOULD BE
ISOLATED.  WEBER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST AFTN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 100 TO 105 DEGREES MAINLY OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN
AND THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN OF BOTH OREGON AND WASHINGTON...THE NORTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON...THE EASTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE AND THE YAKIMA VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

SOME MOISTURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
CASCADES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND AN ISOLD TSRA IS POSSIBLE. THIS
AREA OF ISOLD TSRA IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND EAST INTO THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS AND ALSO INTO THE BLUE/WALLOWAS SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  THE WEATHER WILL BECOME
MORE ACTIVE OVER THE OREGON PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON POSITION OF THE TROUGH AND THE
SMALLER SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT IT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OREGON
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EACH DAY.   THE HIGHEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON TUESDAY FROM
THE OCHOCO MOUNTAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BLUE AND WALLOWA
MOUNTAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND
THEN COOL TO MORE SEASONAL READING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  61 101  62 100 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  66 102  69 101 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  57 103  60 104 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  55 101  62  98 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  57 103  64 102 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  56 101  60 102 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  50  99  54 100 /   0  10  10  10
LGD  49  96  51  99 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  52 101  55 101 /   0  10  10  10
DLS  62 103  63 103 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ041-044-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ640-642.

WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR WAZ639.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ024-027>029.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WAZ641-643.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/93/88


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