Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 272332

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
732 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

An area of low pressure will move north of our area tonight,
before a second low develops near New York City, then lifts to the
northeast tonight into Friday. A warm front will lift partially
through the area tonight, before a cold front sweeps across the
area overnight. High pressure briefly affects the area Friday
night, then builds south of the area over the weekend. Another low
pressure system is forecast to slide well to our north Saturday
and combine with the old low pressure across the Canadian
maritimes, pulling a cold front across the area Saturday night
into Sunday. High pressure is then expected for Monday. A cold
front may affect the area around the middle of the week as an area
of low pressure moves into eastern Canada once again.


Low pressure over Lake Erie will continue to track to the north
and east tonight. A weak warm front will pass through the region
early this evening, followed by a cold front later tonight.

The warm front kind of snakes around the local CWA, and as a
result, there are N to NE winds across northern portions of the
CWA, with temps in the 30s and 40s. South of the warm front, there
are S to SE winds with temps in the 50s to near 60. The back edge
of the rainfall is pushing through SE PA and the Delmarva, and
rain will taper off through this evening.

Once the cold front pushes through the region by midnight, winds
shift to the W-NW at 10 MPH or less. Cooler air will filter into
the region, with lows tonight ranging from the upper 30s to mid
40s across northern zones, and the upper 40s to around 50 for
southern zones.


For Friday, mostly clear and sunny conditions are expected, but
with a gusty NW wind behind the departing low pres over New
England. The air mass behind the cold front is somewhat cooler but
sunshine will compensate some. There will be less of a north-south
temperature contrast with somewhat warmer afternoon max temps
north and slightly cooler south.


High pressure briefly affects the area Friday night, which should
keep dry weather in the forecast.

Saturday, the high pushes well to our south across the southeastern
states, while an area of low pressure passes well to our north
across the southern tier of Canada Saturday into Saturday night.
This low is forecast to combine with the old low pressure system
across the Canadian maritimes. Winds on Saturday could be gusty with
gusts reaching 20 to 25 mph at times.

A cold front is forecast to pass across the area late Saturday night
into Sunday. There will be a slight chance of showers during this
period as the front sweeps across the area, but most of the
precipitation may dry out as it approaches. Sunday night is expected
to be precipitation free as drier air moves in behind the front.
Winds on Sunday could continue to be gusty with gusts reaching 20
to 30 mph at times.

High pressure once again is expected to move into the area later on
Monday and Monday night, bringing dry weather to the area.

Another low pressure system is expected to move well north across
eastern Canada Tuesday into Wednesday, potentially bringing a cold
front across our area around the middle of the week. If the front
gets stretched out too much, and all the forcing passes well to our
north, our forecast could remain dry.


The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

MVFR to IFR conditions at the TAF sites into this evening in
-SHRA. Conditions improve to VFR after midnight tonight as cold
front pushes through the region.

Winds shift to the W-NW tonight at around 10 KT, and then W-NW
winds increase to 15-20 KT with 20-30 KT gusts late Friday


Friday night...Generally VFR.

Saturday...Generally VFR, some MVFR CIGS possible for northern
areas. Gusty northwest winds 20-25 knots.

Saturday night...Generally VFR.

Sunday...Generally VFR, some MVFR CIGS possible, especially for
northern areas. Gusty northwest winds 20-25 knots.

Sunday night-Monday night...Generally VFR.

Tuesday...Generally VFR, some MVFR CIGS possible, especially for
northern areas.


SCA is up for the waters, as wind gusts of 25-30 KT will develop
on all waters going through this evening. Cold front pushes across
the waters late tonight, and then W winds will average 15-20 KT
with 25-30 KT gusts. A few gusts to 35 KT possible on northern
ocean waters during the day Friday.

Friday will have fair weather but with gusty NW winds and seas 5
to 6 feet offshore in a short-period swell.


Friday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely to continue
into the evening Friday. Conditions should drop below Advisory
levels overnight.

Saturday-Saturday night...Winds and seas may approach Small Craft
Advisory levels during the day into the evening Saturday.

Sunday...Conditions return to below Small Craft Advisory levels.

Sunday night...Conditions may increase to Small Craft Advisory
levels behind a cold frontal passage

Monday-Tuesday...Conditions return to below Small Craft Advisory


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Friday night for
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ430-431.


Near Term...AMC/MPS
Short Term...AMC
Long Term...Robertson
Marine...AMC/Robertson/MPS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.