Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 180704
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
304 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control of the weather for much of the
rest of the week into the weekend. A dry frontal boundary may
move into the area Thursday into Friday. A couple of frontal
boundaries are forecast to affect the area early next week,
bringing a return of unsettled weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Frost Advisory remains in effect for the Pine Barrens through
this morning, and should burn off fairly quickly within a few
hours after sunrise.

High pressure continues to strengthen across the Mid-Atlantic
area. Return flow develops this afternoon, and this will usher a
milder airmass into the region. Highs today will be about 10
degrees warmer than Tuesday, topping off in the upper 60s to
around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
Clear tonight with diminishing winds. Dewpoints will slowly
begin to creep up with light S to SW flow. Patchy ground fog is
possible across the Delmarva, Pine Barrens of NJ, and parts of
northern NJ. Radiational cooling will allow for lows in the
upper 30s to around 40 in the Pine Barrens, and in the mid 40s
most elsewhere. The Philly metro area will drop into the low
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Quiet weather is expected for the remainder of this week into
the weekend. High pressure will be in control of the weather
through the end of the week before moving offshore Sunday. A
frontal boundary may move across the area on Thursday, although
it is expected to be dry and only have an effect on the wind
direction and may slightly increase winds.

Ridging aloft builds across the area late this week into the
weekend, which will help keep temperatures several degrees above
normal. As the surface high and ridge aloft moves offshore
Sunday, return flow and southwest flow aloft develops. This will
help increase clouds, but no precipitation is expected through
Sunday.

As we go into early next week, a couple of frontal boundaries
are forecast to move across the east coast. This is expected to
lead to an increase in rainfall activity Monday into Tuesday,
then usher in cooler weather behind the fronts.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR through Wednesday night. Light winds through daybreak, and
then SW winds increase to 5-7 KT this afternoon. Winds diminish
to 5 KT or less tonight.

Patchy ground fog is possible with brief sub-VFR VSBY at
KMIV/KACY late tonight through Thursday morning.

OUTLOOK...

Thursday-Sunday...VFR conditions expected. Winds may gust
around 15 knots out of the southwest Thursday and out of the
northwest Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure dominates area waters. SW winds increase to 10-15
KT this afternoon, then diminish to 5-10 KT tonight. Ocean seas
will be around 3 feet.

OUTLOOK...

Thursday-Sunday...Conditions expected to remain below Small
Craft Advisory levels through the period.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ020>022-027.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...MPS
Short Term...MPS
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Robertson/MPS
Marine...Robertson/MPS



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