Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 230324
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
924 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...REMNANTS OF CIRCULATION MOVING THROUGH WYOMING LINGER
THIS EVENING OVER EAST IDAHO. WEAK CONVECTION STILL OCCURRING
ALONG WYOMING BORDER AND OVER CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THOUGH
REFLECTIVITIES SHOWING A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND ALREADY. MUCH
STRONGER CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER EASTERN OREGON IN RESPONSE TO
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH STATE. NAM AND HRRR SHIFT LINE
OF CONVECTION NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN IDAHO...MISSING EAST IDAHO
FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY. GFS AND RAP HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION
CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z. CURRENT GRID
DEPICTION STILL MAINTAINS ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS 03Z-12Z. BELIEVE CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO
UPDATES ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING. DMH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 155 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LOW
POSITIONED OVER WRN WYOMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT NE TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND PATCHY VALLEY FOG
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING THEN RAPIDLY
DECREASE PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
A CORRESPONDING RIDGE BUILDING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ROCKIES WHICH
WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY MID-WEEK.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WITHIN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
INTO THE 80S WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY FALLING SHORT OF RECORDS. HUSTON

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INLAND FRIDAY...CONTINUING ITS EWRD TREK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE OPERATIONAL GFS REMAINS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE MODEL WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE LAGGARD. THE CURRENT
FORECAST GENERALLY FAVORS A SOLUTION SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE GEM
(CANADIAN MODEL...WHICH WAS FALLING BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN
TIMING) AND THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...ALL OF WHICH WOULD HAVE THE
ONSET FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS SE IDAHO STARTING SOMETIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND THEN
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME SUNDAY. WITH THAT SCENARIO
IN MIND...WE HAVE BOOSTED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THAT TREND AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEAR. HUSTON

AVIATION...HAVE VICINITY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL SITES
EARLY THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST.  MOST
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN EAST OF TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOULD
REMAIN VFR.  ALTHOUGH NOT IN TAFS POSSIBILITY OF FOG MAINLY IN IDA
TUESDAY MORNING.  OTHER THAN POSSIBLE MORNING FOG VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. GK

FIRE WEATHER...WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING MAINLY IN ZONES 476...410 AND 411.  EXPECT DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.   THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WET AND COOLER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND. GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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