Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 061447
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
847 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO POP/QPF THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS WITH BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION WORKING
NORTH INTO REGION FROM UTAH. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING MARGINAL SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL. INCREASING
PRECIPITABLE WATER INTO THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. REPEATED STORMS OVER AN
AREA STILL WARRANT AN EYE TOWARD FLASH FLOODING. DMH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS
EXPECTED WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA. OVERNIGHT...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND
PROGRESSING NORTHWARDS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO EXIT OUR AREA INTO
MONTANA BY LATER THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPING ACTIVITY
IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE AND ALONG THE BORDER WITH
UTAH THIS MORNING. INTENSIFYING ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BEAR LAKE...SODA SPRINGS...AND
ALONG THE UTAH BORDER...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS TO THE
NORTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT POCATELLO AND
IDAHO FALLS THIS AFTERNOON.

PARAMETERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF INDIVIDUAL CELL DOWNBURSTS WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...FROM POCATELLO TO THE UTAH BORDER STARTING
FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY DIMINISHING AFTER 6 P.M.
MDT. ADDITIONALLY...HAIL WILL BE SUPPORTED IN AS WELL. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING IS YET ANOTHER CONCERN TODAY...AND AGAIN TOMORROW
WHEN COMBINING TODAYS RAINFALL WITH TOMORROWS EXPECTED EVENT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES TODAY ACROSS THE
BEAR LAKE REGION AND THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. FOR THE
REST OF US TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 0.25 INCH BUT WE CANNOT
RULE OUT INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING MORE THAN THAT IN OTHER
AREAS. ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT IDAHO AFFECTING MUCH OF THE SAME LOCATIONS
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TODAY. THEREFORE...RAIN TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1 INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF IDAHO BY SATURDAY EVENING.

WHILE ALL THIS IS GOING ON...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BE INCREASING UP TO 20 TO 25MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE
SNAKE PLAIN AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE THESE WINDS
RETURN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...IN THE SAME AREA...WITH SPEEDS UP TO
20MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING. NP/HUSTON

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTS NE INTO SRN WYOMING BY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE A NRN
STREAM TROUGH DIGS SE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. AS THE NRN BRANCH
TROUGH DIGS FURTHER SE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE LOW LINGERS
OVER ERN WYOMING...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANOTHER HEALTHY ROUND OF CONVECTION THROUGHOUT
SE IDAHO SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE GENERALLY FAVORING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE NRN BRANCH TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SE THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS WITHIN
THE ERN MAGIC VALLEY/SNAKE PLAIN AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE CNTRL
AND ERN MOUNTAINS. SECONDARY ENERGY TRAILS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
HELPING TO SUSTAIN ONGOING DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE CNTRL AND
ERN MOUNTAINS WITH GRADUALLY DRIER CONDITIONS FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY
AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST. THE EXITING NRN BRANCH
TROUGH SPINS UP A FAIRLY BROAD LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST BY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH UPSTREAM PAC ENERGY
CYCLING INTO THE WRN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH AND DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES SUPPORTING MORE DIURNALLY FAVORED
CONVECTION. TEMPS COOL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEHIND THE NRN BRANCH
TROUGH. HAVE NOT VARIED TOO MUCH FROM STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. HUSTON

AVIATION...CENTER OF UPPER LOW ROTATING INTO THE SOUTH-CNTRL
CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS LIFTING
INTO SE IDAHO IN THE INCREASING DEEPER/WETTER SOUTHERLY FLOW.
NUMERICAL MODELS BLANKET THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...TAPERING OFF LATE TONIGHT. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS GENERALLY SUPPORT VFR CIGS TODAY...WITH PERHAPS MVFR
CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HUSTON

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ021.

&&

$$


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