Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 250930
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
330 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER WASHINGTON TODAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MAINLY INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS.  WITH
AMPLE RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA
BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. WEDNESDAY LOOK FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS THE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STAYS OVER OUR
AREA. THURSDAY EXPECT ISOLATED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS
THE LOW MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA. EXPECT AN OVERALL DRY WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MONDAY MODELS ARE
SHOWING MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL LOW. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...NO FOG AS OF 2AM THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE NOT QUITE AT
SATURATION YET DESPITE SOME CLEARING ALOFT. SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING THOUGH STILL CANT
RULE OUT POCKETS OF IFR FOG/STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE. WEAK TRANSITORY
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE
STILL IN PLACE ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. CONVECTION LOOKS TO FIRE
BY NOON OVER HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...WHICH COULD SPREAD INTO THE
SNAKE PLAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR WITHIN
PRECIP AREAS AND IFR IN CORES OF STRONGEST STORMS. WILL MAINTAIN
TRENDS IN CURRENT TERMINALS WITH VCTS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
PREDOMINANT SHRA WITH VCTS AT KSUN. AS WITH PREVIOUS DAYS MOST OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET BUT CANT RULE OUT
ISOLATED SHRA AFTER 06Z. DMH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE EAST IDAHO FIRE DISTRICT WILL REMAIN MOIST AND
UNSETTLED THIS WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST MOST DAYS. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS
TIME...DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON THE HORIZON FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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