Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 282058
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
158 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS SHOWING LAST NIGHTS STORM SHEARING RAPIDLY EAST INTO
NEBRASKA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE ERN HIGHLANDS AND
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING FROM SUN VALLEY EAST TO THE WYOMING
BORDER. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN OVER THE SNAKE RIVER
BASIN TONIGHT...BUT THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW THICK WILL THE FOG GET.
ANTICIPATING AREAS OF DENSE FOG FROM POCATELLO TO IDAHO FALLS
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY STARTING AT 8 PM
MDT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE ONLY BUGABOO HERE
IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY INHIBIT THE
FORMATION OF DENSE FOG. A SECOND STORM LIFTING NE TOWARD SRN
CALIFORNIA WAS ALSO VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES INTO SRN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND THEN DRIFTS SSE INTO BAJA/GULF
OF CALIFORNIA SATURDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
FEW CLOUDS LIFTING INTO THE SRN BORDER REGIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. AND
FINALLY...A THIRD SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WEST COAST
RIDGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND DIG SE THROUGH MONTANA SATURDAY APPEARS
TO REMAIN NE OF THE REGION WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SUGGESTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
IT MAY PROVE A BIT TRICKIER FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE THE
INVERSION ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH
A BREAKDOWN/WEAKENING OF A WESTERN U.S. RIDGE HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE MODELS ARE STILL WAVERING ON HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL
OCCUR...WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION AND HOW FAR
SOUTH INTO EASTERN IDAHO WE WILL SEE IT. THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
AREN`T OFFERING TOO MUCH HELP WHEN IT COMES TO FINDING A POSSIBLE
TREND TO LATCH ON TO. AT TIMES THEY LEAN TOWARD MORE RIDGING AND AT
OTHER TIMES DURING THE PERIOD...LESS RIDGING WHEN COMPARED TO THE
NORMAL FORECAST INFORMATION WE LOOK AT AND USE. BECAUSE OF THIS...WE
ARE NOT MAKING ANY SWEEPING CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WE ARE LOOKING
AT THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW COMING IN LATER SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING ALMOST NON-STOP INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK. WE ARE ALSO
KEEPING WITH THE THEME OF MUCH HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH A VERY LOW TO NO CHANCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS OVERALL. KEYES
&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN
IDAHO TODAY AFTER THE RAIN AND SNOW THAT`S FALLEN DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. THAT SAID...WE HAVE SEEN SOME CLEAR SPOTS ACROSS THE AREA. IN
TERMS OF AIRPORTS AFFECTED...WEST WINDS HAVE PUSHED THE DRY AIR INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MAGIC VALLEY ESPECIALLY AROUND KBYI. WHAT CLEARING
AND RETURN TO VFR WE`VE SEEN SHOULD GO AWAY TONIGHT AS WINDS
DECREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOG/STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR WEATHER TO RETURN
TO THE AIRPORT STARTING AROUND 2-3Z AND ESPECIALLY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THE FOG HAS ROLLED INTO KSUN THIS AFTERNOON ALREADY. THE AIRPORT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW MINIMUMS UNTIL WE SEE A NORTHWEST WIND
LATER THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SMALLER CHANCE THOUGH THAT WE COULD
SEE THE FOG MOVE AND OUT AT TIMES UNTIL WE SEE THE OVERALL SWITCH TO
THAT WIND DIRECTION...BUT WE ARE THINKING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
FORECAST WILL PAN OUT. KPIH AND KIDA REMAIN SOCKED IN. IT IS LIKELY
THAT BOTH WILL NOT SEE ANY REAL IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR/LIFR WEATHER
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. KPIH WILL BE CLOSE TO THE CLEARING LINE
BUT WILL LIKELY END UP ON THE CLOUDY/FOGGY SIDE OF IT. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT KBYI AND KPIH AS
SOME WIND KICKS UP AND WOULD ELIMINATE THE FOG AND BREAK UP SOME OF
THE STRATUS. HOWEVER...THINGS LOOK LESS OPTIMISTIC AT KIDA. WE
SHOULD SEE FOG DISSIPATE BUT LOW CEILINGS REMAIN...HOWEVER WE ARE
NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THAT. KSUN WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE ANY
FOG/STRATUS REMAINS TO THE WOOD RIVER VALLEY...WHICH WOULD BE DRAWN
INTO THE AREA WITH THE DAYTIME WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH. KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR IDZ019-020-021 FROM 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
THROUGH 11 AM MST THURSDAY.
&&

$$









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