Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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000
FXZS60 NSTU 280115
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
215 PM SST MON FEB 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY EASTERLIES COMBINED WITH
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
USHER FRESH BREEZE UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. IN COMPARISON OF
COMPUTER MODELS...WRF MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE DONE A GREAT JOB
IDENTIFYING WIND SPEEDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT. EVENTUALLY...LOCAL
WIND SPEEDS WILL DECLINE TO NEAR 10 TO 15 KT BEFORE TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
TAKING ANOTHER DIP TO NEAR 5 TO 10 KT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
.THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS MATERIALIZES AN ELONGATED
SURFACE TROUGH ABOUT A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE FCST ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL MONITOR THIS SITUATION BEFORE
MAKING NEW UPDATES. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...AS LOCAL WINDS PEAK TONIGHT TO NEAR 25 KT...SEA HEIGHTS
WILL ALSO RISE TO NEAR 7 TO 9 FT TONIGHT. EVENTUALLY...SEA HEIGHTS
WILL DROP TO ABOUT 1 TO 2 FT TUESDAY MORNING THUS CORRESPONDING
TO THE STRENGTH OF LOCAL WIND SPEEDS. MODERATE SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT
WILL PERSIST AFTER TUESDAY.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

.A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

$$

CB






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