Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 180119
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
219 PM SST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEVELOPING MONSOONAL TROUGH WILL
USHER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WELL SOUTHEAST OF SAMOA WILL INTENSIFY THUS ALLOWING THE TRADE-WINDS
TO RETURN TONIGHT. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE MODERATE BREEZE TO PICK
UP A NOTCH TO NEAR 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
.SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREV FCST EXCEPT
TO UPDATE THE WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. COMPUTER MODEL RESOLUTION HINTS AT BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR SAVAII AND UPOLU DURING 20/1800 UTC TO 22/0300 UTC. A
MONSOONAL TROUGH OVER THE FCST ZONES WILL TRIGGER LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND TSTMS INTO THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL MONITOR
FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS OF THE MONSOONAL TROUGH AXIS. ANTICIPATE WET
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO HOVER OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE TRADE-WIND GENERATED SEAS AND SWELLS WILL BUILD TO
6 TO 8 FEET ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SEA HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOUNT
NEAR 8 TO 10 FEET DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN PEAKING TO NEAR 12
TO 13 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISSUANCE OF A SMALL
CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE MANDATORY TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTED
SITUATION...HENCE...THE ARRIVAL OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE-WINDS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL MEET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD.
THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS REQUIRED TO BECOME EFFECTIVE
TONIGHT.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NONE.

&&

$$

BAQUI






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