Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 260748 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
550 PM CHST FRI DEC 26 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST OF THE MARIANAS
WATERS GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN
UPSTREAM. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS EAST WINDS OF 12 TO 22
KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 8 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED SOME AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH BY SATURDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE TO THE EAST OF THE MARIANAS FILTERS IN.
INHERITED PACKAGE HANDLED ALL THIS WELL SO OTHER THAN REFRESHING
THE WINDS AND THE DEWPOINTS...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ARE REMAINING STUBBORNLY HIGH ON BOTH THE IPAN AND RITIDIAN
BUOYS. NOT A BIG SURPRISE GIVEN HOW LONG THIS TRADE-WIND SURGE
LASTED AND ITS RATHER LARGE AREAL EXTENT. SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SO IT CAN PROBABLY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
THE MORNING PACKAGE TIME.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
FORECAST REASONING CLOSELY FOLLOWS PREVIOUS FORECASTS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND STREAM LINE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW NORTHEAST
TRADE-WIND FLOW DEEPLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS TO THE WEST OF
BUTARITARI AND TARAWA ATOLLS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DISPLAYING A DRY SEASON PATTERN ACROSS ALL FORECAST LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION MAY NUDGE CLOSE TO
KOSRAE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF KOSRAE.

TRADE-WIND SWELL AND WIND WAVES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS
THE REGION. WAVE WATCH AND ALTIMETRY CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FALLING
TREND IN SEAS AND SWELL. SURF FELL BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS ON POHNPEI
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE KOSRAE WILL EXPERIENCE PROLONGED HIGH SURF AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF LOWER SURF ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS ON EAST FACING SHORES.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A CLEARING TREND CONTINUES OVER CHUUK STATE AS A DRY SEASON PATTERN
TAKES HOLD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER MAKERS
EXPECTED. THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR KOROR WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO YAP AND KOROR THROUGH TONIGHT.
QUIETER WEATHER IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
DISTURBANCE EXITS PALAU TO THE NORTHWEST.

COMBINED SEAS HAVE PEAKED ACROSS PALAU AND YAP STATE...BUT SATELLITE
ALTIMETRY INDICATES HIGHER SEAS THAN EXPECTED AT THIS POINT...
PROLONGING SURF ADVISORIES AND SEA CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT. SURF CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DECLINE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST SATURDAY
                  FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

STANKO/DEVITA








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