Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 290555
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
355 PM CHST SAT NOV 29 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
SHEAR LINE TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM HAS SAGGED EVEN FARTHER
SOUTH...ALLOWING MUCH DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
ANOTHER SHEAR LINE PASSES THRU THE NORTHERN CNMI NEAR SARIGAN.
HOWEVER...THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM IS A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CENTERED SOUTH OF POHNPEI NEAR 2N160E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERED SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT THERE
WAS JUST ENOUGH UPSTREAM REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR AND CLOUDINESS IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY TO ARGUE FOR KEEPING ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS40 ARE TRENDING LATER
WITH REGARD TO THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
POHNPEI DISTURBANCE...SO HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR LATER NEXT WEEK FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME UNTIL MODEL
SOLUTIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS ON THE POHNPEI SYSTEM COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST ALTIMETRY AND BUOY READINGS SHOW COMBINED SEAS SUBSIDING
TO BETWEEN 7 AND 8 FEET. LATEST METARS AND ASCAT IMAGERY SHOW
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE MARINE ZONES HAVE SUBSIDED TO BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS. HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ACCORDINGLY. FRESH TRADE-WINDS AND COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE PLOT THICKENS.
FORECAST FOR WINDS AND SEAS FROM MID WEEK ON BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAIN...AS SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON THE FUTURE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED SOUTH OF POHNPEI
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE. HAVE KEPT A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO THE
FORECAST FOR WINDS AND SEAS UNTIL MORE IS KNOWN.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE SENT LATER.


&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE SENT LATER.


&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/DEVITA





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