Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
000
FXPQ60 PGUM 300624
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
424 PM CHST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF TYPHOON MAYSAK...
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS EAST WINDS
OF 14 TO 42 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 8 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF TYPHOON MAYSAK ARE GRADUALLY
SPREADING NORTHWARD...HOWEVER NOT MANY OF THEM WILL GET NORTH OF
GUAM. THEREFORE SPLIT THE ZONES BETWEEN GUAM AND THE CNMI. THE
TYPHOON WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF GUAM WATERS TONIGHT. AFTER IT
PASSES...WE WILL HAVE TRADE WINDS FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS. THERE
IS A NEW AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE MARSHALL ISLANDS WHICH
WILL BEAR WATCHING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. JUST DELAYED SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR GUAM UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
AND RADAR AS WELL AS THE USUAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SWELL FROM MAYSAK OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM EAST
TO SOUTH THEN LATER TO WEST. SWELL HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE BY THE
TIME THEY ARE COMING FROM THE WEST. SO...SURF ADVISORY IS FOR
SOUTH AND EAST FACING REEFS. WINDS AND SEAS BOTH EXCEED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
AT 4 PM...TYPHOON MAYSAK IS CENTERED ABOUT 85 MILES EAST-
NORTHEAST OF FARAULEP AND 325 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. IT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH AND SHOULD PASS CLOSE TO FARAULEP
IN ABOUT 6 HOURS...AROUND 12Z. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 100
MILES PER HOUR. MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER.
RESIDENTS OF FARAULEP...FAIS... ULITHI AND YAP NEED TO PAY CAREFUL
ATTENTION TO THE PROGRESS OF TYPHOON MAYSAK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS PATCHY AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
MICRONESIA WITH HEAVIER CONVECTION ALONG THE EQUATOR SOUTH OF KOSRAE
AND POHNPEI. ASCAT WIND ANALYSIS INDICATES A PATTERN OF TRADE-WIND
CONVERGENCE IS HELPING TO TRIGGER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE TO VARYING DEGREES THE DISTURBED WEATHER
ACROSS THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND A WEAK CIRCULATION
COULD FORM NEAR KOSRAE LATE TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE PATTERN OF LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL CAUSE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS
EASTERN MICRONESIA...MAINLY ALONG ABOUT 5N FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND LARGE WAVES WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS
SURF AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR KOSRAE AND MAJURO DURING
THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK...AN BAND OF CONVECTION EAST OF TYPHOON MAYSAK PERSISTS ACROSS
CHUUK STATE. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT AND THE THREAT OF
MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE. WEATHER WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MID-
WEEK...BUT A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA COULD
MOVE TOWARD THE CHUUK AREA BY FRIDAY AND FORECASTS FOR LATER THIS
WEEK WILL BE SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

YAP AND KOROR...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
YAP ISLAND...AND TYPHOON MAYSAK IS MOVING WEST INTO YAP STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES IT WILL TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
YAP ISLAND ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT
YAP WHILE MAINLY HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR PALAU.
THE EXACT WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR YAP AND KOROR WILL DEPEND ON THE
PRECISE TRACK OF MAYSAK...BUT DESTRUCTIVE WINDS ARE LIKELY FOR YAP
WITHIN THE TIME FRAME OF TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEATHER SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND SEAS SETTLE DOWN BY FRIDAY ACROSS WESTERN
MICRONESIA.

TYPHOON MAYSAK WILL CAUSE SEA CONDITIONS TO BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR
KOROR ON TUESDAY. A SURF ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY AS
MAYSAK STARTS MOVING ACROSS THE YAP STATE AREA. THE CURRENT TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR YAP SUPERSEDES ANY SURF ADVISORY FOR YAP.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST WEDNESDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST WEDNESDAY
                  FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

STANKO/WILLIAMS/SIMPSON



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.