Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 230845
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
145 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...CLEAR NIGHTS...AND NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS ARIZONA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS SEEN IN THE PLOT AND SOUNDING DATA. IR IMAGERY AT 1 AM
SHOWED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SERN CA AND ARIZONA...WITH JUST A
BIT OF MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUD SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES JUST OFF THE WEST COAST TODAY...A
SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND
PASS THRU THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...AND IN RESPONSE LOW/MID LEVEL
GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN. THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND EXCEED 30 MPH AT
TIMES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART WINDS WILL
REMAIN A BIT BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF WINDS PEAKING BETWEEN 35-40 MPH. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS
TODAY WILL HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...BUT WILL FALL OF ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ MONDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE DESERTS
BEHIND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. EXPECT HIGHS FALLING INTO THE 60S
MONDAY OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS...WITH A HIGH OF 67 FORECAST FOR
PHOENIX UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

FOR MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PERSIST EACH DAY AS THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
AND SHIFT EASTWARD. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INLAND OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH H5 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TO
AROUND 585DM OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS. AS SUCH...EXPECT A WARMING
TREND THRU MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS RISING MAINLY INTO THE MID 70S OVER
THE LOWER DESERTS WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO FLATTEN
A BIT THURSDAY...WARM AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE
AND BEST PERFORMING GRIDDED GUIDANCE CALLS FOR HIGHS TO RISE SEVERAL
MORE DEGREES...AND INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE HIGH AT PHOENIX WILL
CLIMB TO 81...MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL VALUE OF 70
DEGREES. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU THE FLOW
EACH DAY BUT OVERALL EXPECT SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND GENERALLY
CLEAR NIGHTS.

TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THE RIDGE TO
CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AS THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND
PROGRESSIVE. DESPITE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BECOMING VERY MESSY WITH
TIME...OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF RUNS AGREE THAT FAR SERN AZ AND SRN
AZ WILL STAY UNDER A RATHER DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THRU SATURDAY
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU THE FLOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL
START TO FALL OFF BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH ONLY THIN
CIRRUS OVER TERMINALS. VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...AND IN MANY
INSTANCE CALM OR VARIABLE...SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN SPEED.
HOWEVER...PEAK SPEEDS OR GUSTS AOA 12KT WOULD BE BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS...PARTICULARLY AT KBLH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNRISE...WITH MIXING BY MID MORNING BRINGING
STRONG GUSTS TO THE SFC. WHILE KIPL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO
20KT...KBLH WILL SEE FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 25KT...AND POSSIBLY REACH
CLOSE TO 35KT FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 18Z. GUSTS SHOULD START TO
ABATE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOCALIZED NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BRUSH PASS
THROUGH THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING
MODESTLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE AREA...WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVE LATE NOVEMBER
READINGS. SOME OF THE WARMER LOWER DESERT LOCALES COULD SEE 80F
READINGS OR WARMER BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/AJ








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