Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 180920 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
220 AM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...WHICH IS NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO
BY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE IS
NOW SHIFTING WELL OFF TO THE EAST...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING
MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL THEN GRADUALLY RETURN BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IT HAS TURNED OUT TO BE A VERY QUIET NIGHT SO FAR ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY KEEPING PRETTY MUCH
ALL THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF ODILE...WHICH IS IS
JUST NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NOGALES AREA...WELL OFF TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN FACT...MOST OF OUR CWA IS NOW SEEING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...AS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PUSHES SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN CA APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE EURO IS THE
CURRENT MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING...IT BEING THE ONLY ONE THAT IS
KEEPING ALL PRECIP OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA AT THIS TIME.

EVEN THOUGH THINGS APPEAR TO BE DONE WITH ODILE OVER OUR CWA...THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN (PWATS IN THE
1.50-1.75 INCH RANGE) AND ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH
DAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...MAINLY FROM PHOENIX
NORTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHEN WE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST AVAILABLE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF PASSES OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...AND TO NEAR 100 ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SE CA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BRINGING MORE DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX EACH DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SHOULD BE A PRETTY TYPICAL MONSOON DAY TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FORMING MAINLY TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. GIVEN
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT SCATTERED
-SHRA ACROSS THE METRO AND I WILL RETAIN THE MENTION OF VCSH THROUGH
APPROX 01Z IN ALL PHOENIX TAFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL
WINDS WITH SPEEDS 10-15KTS OR LESS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. COULD
SEE SOME ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS OUT OF THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THESE WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD DIE OFF BEFORE
SUNSET.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE DESERTS WILL SEE A DRYING TREND. DESERT HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED. THE DRY AIR WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. NO MAJOR
WIND EVENTS EXPECTED AT ANY TIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS






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