Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 242205
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
305 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

...Quick burst of snow possible along the I-25 corridor
this evening...

Broad upper trough over the Rockies today, with numerous spokes of
energy rotating eastward across the area. At the surface, cold front
has pushed south through the plains, with shallow upslope flow
developing along and east of the mountains. Combination of upslope
and upper level energy will continue to generate areas of showers
this evening, with most models producing accumulating snow
(generally 1-3 inches) over the eastern mountain slopes and the I-25
corridor from the Palmer Divide south to Raton Pass through
midnight. Have increased pops and snow amounts along/east of the
mountains to account for this scenario, and wouldn`t be too
surprised to see a quick burst of heavier snow (3+ inches) over
terrain favored areas s/sw of Pueblo down toward La Veta Pass and
Walsenburg this evening. Snowfall should end quickly from north to
south after midnight, leaving mainly flurries along the NM border by
12z. Farther west, will keep winter highlights in place until 5 pm,
as web cams and radar continue to show a few intense -shsn and areas
of blowing snow over most higher passes. After sunset, forcing for
precip gradually diminishes, and expect precip to taper off to
flurries and snow showers from the sangres westward, along with a
general decrease in wind speeds as well. Over the plains, expect sct
rain/snow showers this evening, ending by midnight, with only minor
snow accums.

On Wednesday, best forcing for precip will shift east of the region,
though with secondary upper trough overhead and rather steep lapse
rates, suspect most mountains will regenerate some flurries and snow
showers by afternoon, though any accums will be spotty and light.
Max temps will remain on the cold side most locations, with 20s/30s
valleys/plains, teens/20s mountains. Still some lingering upper
energy across the area again on Thu, with again some light mountain
snow showers and flurries persisting, along with another day of
rather cold max temps.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

Thursday night-Saturday...Cool northerly flow aloft is progged
across the region Thursday night as one last embedded short wave digs
across the Great Basin and Rockies. Pattern keeps chances of snow
across the higher terrain, mainly the central mountains, through the
day Friday before drier air moves into the region. Any snow
accumulations will generally be light and confined to the higher
peaks Thursday night. Cool and dry northerly flow continues across
the region Friday with models differing on location of yet another
embedded wave translating through the flow on Saturday. The GFS
is the furthest west with said wave and produces some light snow
across the higher terrain Saturday afternoon, where as the ECMWF
is further east and keeps the area dry on Saturday. At any rate,
have kept some silent pops across the higher terrain for the
Saturday timeframe. Cool northerly flow aloft will keep temperatures
below seasonal levels through at least Friday, with highs only in the
mid 20s to mid  30s across the lower elevations and single digits and
teens at the peaks. Lows look to be mainly in the single digits
and teens across the lower elevations and in the single digits above
and below zero across the higher terrain and high mountain valleys.
Slight warming to near seasonal levels looks in the offing for
Saturday.

Sunday-Tuesday...Northerly flow aloft moderates across the region
Sunday and becomes more west to northwest into early next week, as a
large upper level ridge building across the West Coast and into the
Great Basin this weekend, flattens across the Rockies into early next
week. This pattern suggests generally warm and dry conditions across
the region into early next week, with temperatures warming back
to above seasonal levels Sunday and Monday, before a weak and dry
cold front brings cooler temperatures across the southeast Plains
on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 305 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

At KALS...brief IFR conditions in -shsn possible until around 00z,
then mainly VFR overnight and through the day Wed as threat of snow
diminishes. Some threat of patchy dense fog near the terminal as
skies clear/wind diminish late, though won`t include in the taf yet.

At KCOS...period of MVFR to brief IFR conditions 23z-05z this
evening as -shsn develop, then gradually clearing with snow ending
after 05z. VFR for the rest of the night and through the day Wed,
with a few -shsn over the mts west of terminal Wed afternoon.

At KPUB...period of MVFR to brief IFR conditions 23z-05z this
evening as -shsn develop, then gradually clearing with snow
ending 05-06z. VFR after 06z and through the day Wed.

Over the mountains, most higher terrain will remain occasionally
obscured by -shsn overnight, with some clearing 12z-18z Wed.
Showers will redevelop Wed afternoon, with most higher peaks
obscured from 18z onward.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ059-
061-067-073-075.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ058-
060-066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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