Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 092150
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
250 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. NON SNOW
COVERED AREAS OF THE PLAINS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60F SO
FAR TODAY...WHILE MOUNTAINS AND SNOW COVERED REGIONS HAVE REMAINED
IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

TONIGHT...RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD WITH GRADUALLY
DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH ON THE PLAINS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH W/NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO KEEP LEE SLOPES FAIRLY MILD WITH MINS IN THE
30S...WHILE VALLEYS AND UNMIXED LOCATIONS FALL TO SEASONABLY COLD
READINGS BY EARLY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD COLORADO WITH
RATHER DIFFUSE LEE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. SHOULD BE A VERY
WARM DAY ALL AREAS AS 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 2C-6C RANGE UNDER
MODEST WLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 70F OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. GIVEN AMOUNT OF SNOW LEFT TO MELT OVER EL
PASO/CROWLEY/WRN KIOWA COUNTIES...CUT MAXES BACK SEVERAL DEGF FROM
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE THESE AREAS...AS READINGS ABOVE 60F MAY BE TOUGH
TO REACH UNTIL SNOW COVER FINALLY MELTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW ENSEMBLE SPREADS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN
COLORADO.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. THIS WILL SET UP PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
ONLY DISTURBANCE NOTED ON MODEL GUIDANCE...IS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE MAIN WAVE
WILL PASS TO THE EAST...WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOPING
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO
TRANSITION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WEST MOVING INTO COLORADO.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH 50S AND
60S FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHT INCREASE
IN W/NW FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AS LEE
SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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