Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 222159
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
259 PM MST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM MST Mon Jan 22 2018

...Central Mountain Snow Showers Otherwise Dry with Seasonal Temps...

High pressure has built in over Colorado and will generally control
the weather over the area for the next 24 hours.  The one exception
to this is over the central mountains where a weak disturbance will
bring a few snow showers overnight into Tuesday morning, primarily to
elevations above 9000 feet, north of Cottonwood Pass.  Local
accumulations around an inch will be possible up that way.

Elsewhere, just dry northwest flow over the next 24 hours with
temperatures fairly close to seasonal averages.  The winds that are
blowing out there right now will drop off after sunset and then
remain relatively light through Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM MST Mon Jan 22 2018

Models continue to be in good agreement with low ensemble spreads.
There are minor differences between the operational solutions, but
the overall pattern evolution looks good. This leads to higher
forecast confidence through the extended period.

Tuesday night through Thursday...high pressure will transit across
Southern Colorado during this period. Expect dry conditions to
prevail along with mild temperatures. Afternoon highs will warm
into the 50s on Tuesday reaching into the 60s by Thursday for the
lower elevations. Increasing southwesterly flow across the region
on Thursday will lead to breezy conditions during the afternoon
along with reduced humidity values. Elevated fire danger will
exist across the area and this will need to be monitored.

Thursday night through Friday...a broad upper level storm system
will generally pass north of Colorado. The GFS continues to trend
northward with the storm track, while the ECMWF is a bit more
amplified. Both bring periods of light snowfall to the Continental
Divide Thursday night through Friday, with the ECMWF having more
widespread snowfall further south into the San Juans. Snow
accumulations do not look overly impressive at this time, and if
the GFS northern track trend continues, most of our Continental
Divide mountains may miss out. Across the Plains, a cold front
will drop south by Friday morning with temperatures dropping into
the 40s for highs. No precipitation is forecast across the Plains.

Saturday through Monday...high pressure over the west will slowly
move east over Colorado over the weekend into early next week.
This will bring dry conditions to the area along with warming
temperatures.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 247 PM MST Mon Jan 22 2018

High pressure will result in mainly VFR across the flight area next
24 hours.  However, a weak upper disturbance will move through the
central and northern Colorado mountains overnight into Tuesday
morning, bringing local MVFR to LIFR conditions in scattered snow
showers. Gusty northwest winds that are occurring across the plains
this afternoon will drop off after sunset, not expected to return
through Tuesday.

The KCOS, KPUB and KALS terminals are all expected to remain VFR
next 24 hours.  However, the KCOS and KPUB terminals will have to
deal with the gusty wind through the remainder of the afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...LW



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