Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 082156

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
256 PM MST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 243 PM MST Thu Dec 8 2016

Persistent SE upslope flow has kept an area of stratus in place
across Pueblo/El Paso/Ern Fremont counties today, with occasional
flurries and light snow under the cloud deck from the north side of
Pueblo northward along I-25 into Colorado Springs. Some stratus also
hanging on over the far sern corner of the state, with thickening
mid and high level cloudiness streaming toward the Continental
Divide as next fast moving wave approaches. For tonight, snow will
develop along the Continental Divide this evening and continue
through Fri morning, with greatest accumulations occuring from
Monarch Pass northward. General amounts in the 2 to 4 inch range
expected over the central mountains by early Fri, with perhaps 4 to
6 inches across the higher peaks and west facing slopes. Stratus and
a few flurries will linger across Pueblo/El Paso counties into the
evening, with lower clouds gradually eroding overnight as weak
downslope gradient develops. Min temps rather tricky tonight with
cold air and relatively clear skies many locations early, then
increasing clouds and downslope winds late as lee surface trough
deepens and cold air retreats. In general, expect min temps to occur
many areas before midnight, with steady or slowing rising readings
by morning.

On Thursday...steady snowfall over the central mountains in the
morning tapers off to flurries/snow showers by afternoon as upper
jet lifts north and dynamic lift decreases. Overall, temps will warm
substantially (15-25f) most locations as warmer pacific air pushes
eastward across the state, and a few 50f readings may reappear in
the lee of the southern sangres around Trinidad. Exception to the
quick warm-up may be portions of the lower Arkansas Valley from
Pueblo eastward, as surface pressure falls south of La Junta keep a
weak easterly gradient through the valley into the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM MST Thu Dec 8 2016

Models are in good agreement through the extended period and
ensemble spreads are low. The main forecast differences between
solutions will deal with timing and tracks of individual waves
that move across Colorado.

Friday night through Saturday...board westerly flow will remain in
place across Colorado. Weak energy in the flow and favorable
orographics will lead to persistent light snowfall over the
Central Mountains. A few model solutions have light snow as far
south as the La Garita range. Increased mixing on Saturday will
allow temperatures to warm across the region with 50s for highs.

Sunday...models in good agreement with an upper disturbance
dropping out of the Northern Rockies, east into the Central
Plains. This will drop a cold front across the area by Sunday
afternoon. Expect snow to increase along the Continental Divide by
Sunday morning with periods of moderate to heavy snow through the
day. Early guidance is indicating 8 to 12 inches of snow may be
possible, especially over the Central Mountains. Light snow may be
possible over the northern Sangre de Cristo range. As the
disturbance moves east of the area, models indicate light snow may
be possible over Teller County, east into the Palmer Divide region
Sunday evening. Accumulations, if any, will be minor over this

Over the plains, strong winds are expected on Sunday. Model
guidance suggests 30 to 40 mph winds are likely in wind prone
areas. Temperatures will be slightly cooler with upper 40s to
lower 50s for highs.

Monday through Thursday...expect snow to dissipate over the region
Sunday night with broad northwesterly flow Monday through
Thursday. Another embedded disturbance is expected to move across
northern Colorado on Tuesday. This would lead to another round of
moderate to heavy mountain snow. Over the plains, a cold front is
forecast by Tuesday afternoon, with low level easterly upslope
flow developing into the evening. The GFS is most aggressive with
snow development over the plains, while the ECMWF keeps snow to
the north. Tuesday will likely be the best chance for the Plains
to see precipitation.

High pressure will then build across the west Wednesday into
Thursday with drier conditions across Colorado. Any snow will
remain confined to the Central Mountains and be light.
Temperatures in the 40s and 50s are expected over the Plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 243 PM MST Thu Dec 8 2016

KALS...VFR tonight and Friday.

KCOS...Weak SE flow will persist into the evening, keeping stratus
and low clouds in place with periods of light snow as well. Expect
IFR to brief LIFR through at least 03z, with only very slow
improvement 03z-06z. After 06z, winds will gradually take on a more
N to NW component, which should allow conditions to improve to VFR
07z-09z. On Fri, expect VFR conditions through the day.

KPUB...MVFR cigs will persist into the evening, with occasional
breaks developing by 03z. Clouds should the dissipate toward 06z as
weak W-NW gradient develops, with VFR conditions for the remainder
of the night and into the day Fri.

Over the mountains, snow will increase along the Continental Divide
late this afternoon and continue into the overnight. Expect IFR to
LIFR conditions from KMYP northward beginning around 00z and
persisting through midday Fri, with gradual improvement Fri




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