Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 121136
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
736 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...

A RELATIVELY DRY/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL NC...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST CHANCE ASSOC/W
THE SEABREEZE (SOUTHEAST) AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE MOUNTAINS
(WEST). EXPECT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AROUND 90F.
LOWS ALSO NEAR NORMAL...AROUND 70F. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND EASTWARD INTO
THE CAROLINAS ON SUN/SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC SUN/SUN NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE INTO THE N/NW
PIEDMONT IN ASSOC/W SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...AND WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS N/NW
OF THE TRIANGLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY
ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS SUN
NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 157 AM SATURDAY...

AN ANOMALOUS MID/UPPER TROUGH FOR THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS SLATED BY THE MODELS TO APPROACH THE
MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
ALSO FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
PIEDMONT. WE WILL HAVE TO RAISE POP FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE FEATURES. IN ADDITION... A SQUALL LINE
POTENTIALLY MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY EVENING OR
NIGHT FROM THE NW.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION
TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST POP MAY END UP BEING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
FOR THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE A BIT QUICKER WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR OUR REGION IN THE LATEST RUNS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT MUCH
OF THE AREA MAY BE MUCH COOLER AND DRIER BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...
THE FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE COASTAL PLAIN OR COASTAL AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... KEEPING POP UP IN THAT REGION.

OTHERWISE... MUCH MORE STABLE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE
REGION WED-THU. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK. LOWS IN THE 60-65 RANGE... WITH HIGHS
80-85 W-F.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY...

ASIDE FROM MVFR-VLIFR FOG THAT WILL RAPIDLY LIFT BETWEEN 12-13Z THIS
MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A DRY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POTENTIAL FOR FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
SUN/MON (FAY/RWI TERMINALS) AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS SUNDAY AFT/EVE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...VINCENT


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