Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 290916
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
216 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY, MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN FAR WESTERN NEVADA. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING FIRE STARTS ARE MAIN CONCERNS FOR
FRIDAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US AND GREAT BASIN
TODAY, BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS JUMP INTO THE MID 90S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME VALLEYS IN WEST CENTRAL NV
LIKELY REACHING 100 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ALONG WITH THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES WILL COME MORE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON CUMULUS, MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA TODAY AND THURSDAY. MID
LEVEL CAP SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION TODAY, THEN A COUPLE OF HIGH BASED LATE DAY STORMS MAY
POP UP THURSDAY IN SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY.

BY FRIDAY, MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE WITH DEEPER
SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING. IN ADDITION, A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM A LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROJECTED TO SWING
NORTHWARD ACROSS CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE ELEMENTS WILL LEAD TO A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SIERRA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
FAR WESTERN NV INCLUDING THE RENO-CARSON VICINITY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AT A SLOWER RATE, SO THE CELLS ARE LIKELY
TO HAVE HIGH CLOUD BASES WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH, WHILE PRODUCING LIMITED AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.
LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO RECENT
DRYING OF VEGETATION.

SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MAINLY IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THESE CELLS ARE LIKELY TO BE MOVING
RELATIVELY QUICKLY WITH SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS, SO LIGHTNING
STRIKES COULD AGAIN INDUCE NEW FIRE STARTS IN AREAS WHERE THE
FUELS HAVE DRIED SUFFICIENTLY. MJD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS AROUND 0.75 INCH OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR SATURDAY WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON CLOUD
COVER AS SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH IT. IN ADDITION, THE ECMWF IS PROJECTING A
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR
SUNDAY, MODELS PROJECT LESS MID-HI CLOUDS WHICH WOULD PROMOTE
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS. WHILE PWATS ARE HIGH, STORM
MOTIONS BOTH SAT-SUN WILL BE MODERATE AND THERE COULD BE A MIX OF
WET AND DRY STORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO DRY THINGS OUT AS
THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST. WE HAVE REDUCED POPS A BIT AND REMOVED ALL
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY AUGUST WITH 80S AND 90S. AFTER LIGHT WINDS THIS WEEKEND, A
MORE TYPICAL LATE DAY ZEPHYR WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. CUMULUS BUILDUPS BEGIN TO WORK
NORTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA CREST MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE ON
THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM NEAR MAMMOTH LAKES
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. HOHMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)


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