Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 252202

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
302 PM PDT THU AUG 25 2016

Dry air will remain across the region with seasonable and stable
conditions this afternoon. There is a low chance for thunderstorms
Friday afternoon across the Sierra in Mono County. Breezy
conditions return to the northern Sierra and northwestern Nevada
by Sunday afternoon as the next weather system over the Pacific
approaches the west coast.


Friday, the NAM continues to hint at late afternoon/early evening
cumulus buildups over southern Mono County where a light surface
to 700 mb convergence/thermal boundary sets up. The GFS had been
resistant to this in its simulations and was producing shallower
convection. However, in the most recent run (18Z) the GFS has a
bit deeper RH response. With the NAM and most recent GFS in mind,
have opted to leave a slight chance of afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms in the forecast for southern Mono and Mineral
Counties Friday.

For the weekend, high pressure strengthens over California and
Nevada with clear skies expected outside of a few measly afternoon
cumulus over Mono and Mineral Counties. With thermal gradients
building between the Sierra and Great Basin, afternoon and evening
zephyr winds are expected with gusts reaching 20-30 mph for
northeast California and out into far western Nevada. -Snyder

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...
For early next week, afternoon and evening breezes will increase
as a broad trough moves into the Pacific Northwest and increases
thermal gradients across northern CA and NV. This will increase
the fire concern at least somewhat as the flow aloft remains dry
and stable from the southwest.

Next Wednesday and Thursday, the trough is expected to move close
enough to bring a cool down with highs in the 70s and 80s for
Sierra and lower elevation valleys, respectively. -Snyder


VFR conditions with generally light winds through Friday. The
only exception may be an isolated thunderstorm possible near KMMH
Friday afternoon. Afternoon winds from the SW return for the
weekend, but peak gusts only look to be around 20 to locally 25
kts at this time, mainly north of highway 50. Wallmann


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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