Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 171109
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
309 AM PST Sun Dec 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Average temperatures today with warming and moderate overnight
temperature inversions through Tuesday. Another storm will likely
produce strong winds Wednesday, very cold temperatures for late
week, and has the potential to bring a couple inches of
accumulating snow to all elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Northeast winds along the Sierra crest gusted to over 100 mph
overnight as cold air settled into the Great Basin creating a very
strong temperature gradient along the Sierra. Winds on Lake Tahoe
continue to gust around 30 mph this morning with a Lake Wind
Advisory in effect until 10 AM. The strong gradient will dissipate
with winds slowly backing off along the ridges through the day
today with generally light winds elsewhere.

Temperatures today will be right around average for this time of
year with mostly clear skies. Daytime high temperatures will
increase to around 10 degrees above average by Tuesday as ridging
builds back over the region. Moderate low level temperature
inversions are expected for the beginning of the week before the
next system moves in Wednesday. -Zach

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night and beyond...

Models remain persistent with dropping upper low into the Great
Basin for Wednesday with both the GFS/ECMWF showing similar
timing differences to their previous runs. The ECMWF is about 6
hours faster. The overall character of the storm has not changed
with winds increasing Tuesday night ahead of a strong cold front
that will drop into northeast CA/northwest NV late Tuesday night,
and then progress fairly quickly southeast during the day
Wednesday. Frontogenetical forcing/instability remain impressive
along the front with model QPF showing anywhere from 0.20-0.40".
This is a colder storm and snow levels are expected to be at
valley floors. So accumulating snow is possible at all elevations
with current projections of 1-4" which will mostly fall during a
short 1-2 hour window along the front. Impacts will be greater if
the faster ECMWF verifies in bringing this band of snow through
the area earlier in the day Wednesday. However, the intensity of
the snow band may still be sufficient to accumulate snow for area
roadways/airports even during the day. Anyone with travel or
outdoor interest late Tuesday night into Wednesday should check
weather forecast updates and be prepared for adverse travel
conditions.

As this system departs, we will develop another period of gusty
northeast winds across the ridges Wednesday night and Thursday.
These winds may persist into next weekend as upper level ridge
builds across the west coast. The large scale pattern favors a
blocking pattern that will keep big Pacific storms away from our
area with perhaps a chance for another cold slider-like system for
the end of the month. Hohmann

&&

.AVIATION...

Gusty northeast ridge winds to continue this morning with gusts
to 70-75 kts and mtn wave turbulence likely near the Sierra
Crest. Winds then begin to diminish with peak gusts around 50 kts
after 18Z today. Light winds will then prevail through Tuesday
before the next system arrives Wednesday. This one looks stronger
than the last front with strong gusty winds, mtn wave turbulence,
LLWS and a period of MVFR/IFR conditions in SHSN for all
elevations. Hohmann

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Lake Tahoe
     in NVZ002.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Lake Tahoe
     in CAZ072.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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