Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 300757
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
257 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

Clouds were on the increase early Wednesday in response to an
active northwesterly upper pattern positioned over the region. A
minor shortwave will track through this flow from the central High
Plains into eastern Oklahoma by tonight while our area becomes
positioned within the entrance region of the upper jet. Meanwhile
the 850-700 MB front will be oriented from western Kansas to
western Arkansas while isentropic upglide develops on the 310K
theta surface as far north as far southwestern Missouri.

The result be in an increase in showers from southeastern Kansas
into southwestern Missouri today. There will be a rather sharp
gradient in rain chances with the best chance of showers generally
south of a line from Fort Scott Kansas to Springfield and West
Plains Missouri.

Instability will be limited at best. While a few rumbles of thunder
cannot be ruled out organized thunderstorms are not expected.

The showers will persist from extreme southeastern Kansas into far
southern Missouri tonight but taper off from the north.

The below normal temperatures will persist today with highs
remaining in the 70s across portions of southern Missouri and
extreme southeastern Kansas where clouds and showers will be more
prevalent.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the region from
late week into the this weekend between an upper level ridge over
the Rockies and an upper level trough located over the northeastern
U.S. The upper ridge will expand eastward late this weekend into
early next week allowing temperatures to rise to near normal
levels.

A shortwave trough and associated front are progged to drop
southward into the central U.S. during the middle and later part
of next week bringing a chance of needed rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

An upper level disturbance embedded within the northwest flow
aloft will track out of the Rockies and to our southwest bringing
quite a bit of rain to parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. Our area will
be on the northeastern section of the rain band, but our lower
levels will remain dry with surface high pressure in place. Mid
level cloudiness will increase over the next 24 hour period and
could see some light rain or sprinkles develop by morning. Our
best chance for anything will be at JLN which will be closer to
the heavier rain band to the southwest. Generally expecting VFR
conditions through the period, but may see some MVFR at JLN by
late Wednesday afternoon into the evening.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg





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