Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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763
FXUS66 KSGX 242018
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
118 PM PDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Slightly cooler weather is on tap through Monday as a pair of weak,
low pressure troughs move over the State. Onshore flow will
increase, along with the marine layer and associated clouds, and
there may even be a few light showers along and west of the
mountains on Saturday. Strong northwest winds are likley over the
coastal waters on Monday. Dry and warmer again into the middle of
next week as onshore flow subsides. Another storm system is possible
for Southern California late next week, with the potential for
strong winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

&&

Skies were clear over the forecast area early this afternoon. At 1
PM PDT, surface pressure gradients were running 2-4 MBS onshore KSAN
to the deserts, resulting in light wind reports, even near wind-
prone areas.

A pair of low pressure troughs will move over the State through
Monday. They may produce a few light showers along and west of the
mts on Saturday and again Monday. Most of the precip with these
systems will remain to the north of the forecast area, but both will
bring increasing onshore flow, with some strong wind gusts possible
in the mts/deserts, and hazardous small craft conditions in the
coastal waters.

Weak high pressure moves over the area on Sunday, and becomes a bit
stronger and more persistent by the middle of next week. This should
result in daytime temperatures climbing back above average Tue
through Thu.

The picture is muddied a bit more late next week as the various
models and model runs have been advertising a digging trough over
the West. Model solutions have been unstable with the track and
strength of this incipient storm system, so confidence is low at
this point for the weather late next week. The latest 12Z solutions
are favoring dry weather, but the winds could still be rather strong.

&&

.AVIATION...
242000Z...Through 25/0600 UTC, primarily P6SM vis and FEW-SCT clouds
AOA 20000 ft msl. 25/0600-1500 UTC, BKN-OVC clouds gradually forming
in the coast and valleys and then eventually reaching the coastal
slopes by 25/1500 UTC. Expect bases/tops to start out around 1000 ft
msl/2000 ft msl and then increase to 2000 ft msl/3000 ft msl by
25/1200 UTC and then up to 2000-2500 ft msl/4500 ft msl by 25/1500
UTC. Isolated showers possible over and west of the mountains by
25/1200 UTC producing local vis 5 sm. Expect mountain obscuration of
coastal slopes by 25/1500 UTC. Elsewhere, P6SM vis and SCT-BKN
clouds AOA 15000 ft msl.

&&

.MARINE...
A trough moving through the region on Saturday will bring northwest
winds gusting to near 20 kt, choppy sea conditions, and possibly
some light showers. Although winds weaken early Sunday, northwest
winds are likely to strengthen again Sunday night through Monday,
with wind gusts likely reaching 25-30 kt on Monday for the inner and
outer waters. This, in addition to steep seas near 10 feet, will
result in hazardous conditions for small craft on Monday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Elevated swells from the west-northwest direction (around 285-290
degrees) will likely create above normal surf of 3-6 feet starting
Sunday and continuing through most of next week. An increased risk
of strong rip currents is likely as well.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation will not be needed through Saturday.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...Harrison



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