Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 222230
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH TUESDAY RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND.
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN CHRISTMAS DAY
WITH COOLING AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST MOUNTAIN AND DESERT WINDS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED BACK TO ONE THAT IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PATTERN THAT WAS OVER THE AREA BEFORE THE HEAVY RAINS ARRIVED IN
EARLY DECEMBER. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONSIST OF A PARADE OF
TROUGHS AND RIDGES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. FOR STARTERS...HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
ALONG AND NEAR THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE LOCAL WRF IS COMING IN RATHER STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.
THE LOCAL WRF HAS SURFACE WINDS IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS
PEAKING AT AROUND 40 TO 50 KNOTS. THIS SHOULD HELP SUPPORT WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GUSTS ABOVE 70 MPH IN THE
VERY WINDIEST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD AT WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW. BUFKIT
SHOWS WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AS WELL. SOME
MARINE LAYER SEEN ON THE BUFKIT SOUNDING...WHICH MATCHES THE PATCH
OF FOG OUT OVER THE WATER TODAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
OFFSHORE FLOW SO THAT ANY MEANDERING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG SHOULD BE
PUSHED SEAWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GIVING WAY TO BLUE SKIES
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY...THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (CHRISTMAS THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BRING COOLING...ALONG WITH NEAR AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS THE TROUGH
MOVING IN AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS
OF GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE VERY LONG TERM SHOWS A BAGGY TROUGH OVER THE REGION. WITH MUCH
VARIATION IN THE ENSEMBLE MODELS AFTER NEXT WEEKEND...SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
222100Z...LOCAL SFC NE TO E WIND GUSTS 35-55 KT...AREAS OF
LLWS...AND MOD-STG UDDFS POSSIBLE OVER AND SW/W OF THE MOUNTAINS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...INCLUDING VCNTY OF KONT AND
KSNA...WITH LIGHTER WINDS REACHING KCRQ. OTHERWISE SKC AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...A DECREASING W-NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED SURF
TODAY...WITH SETS TO 6 FT MAINLY IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. A
REINFORCING LONG-PERIOD W-NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUE/EARLY
WED...LIKELY CONTINUING ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS INTO
THURSDAY. MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FT COULD CONTRIBUTE TO MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUE. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE MOST WIND PRONE LOCATIONS. MIN RH WILL DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE RH RECOVERIES TUESDAY NIGHT. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS...HIGHER RH
VALUES...AND LOWER TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS DAY. INCREASED FUEL
MOISTURE FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL LOW. WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...
     SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SMALL
FIRE WEATHER...JT
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT





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