Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 101108
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
410 AM PDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW DECREASING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
SINCE MONDAY...BUT HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING IN THE LOWER DESERT
AREAS AND ADJACENT MOUNTAIN SLOPES. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT UPPER
DESERT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WILL RETURN...POSSIBLY SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MORE LIKELY FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH CHANCES
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
WARMING FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT COOLING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES. THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS COOLER WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG BECOMING PATCHIER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING
ORANGE...SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WHILE MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE SHOWN A DECREASING TREND
SINCE MONDAY...THAT IS NOT EXACTLY WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING. WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS...GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS HAVING BEEN SHOWING
SLOWLY DECREASING VALUES SINCE MONDAY...CONSISTENT WITH THE NKX
SOUNDING AND MODELS FORECASTS. HOWEVER...IN THE LOWER DESERTS...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHED A MIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING SINCE THEN...BACK TO ABOUT THE LEVELS OF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WAS SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST MOUNTAIN SLOPES EXTENDING INTO ADJACENT
UPPER DESERT AREAS. WHILE SLOW DRYING IS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY...IT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT THERE MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN
PLACE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SIMILAR AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE INTO
FRIDAY AND BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

FOR COASTAL AREAS...A MARINE LAYER DEEP ENOUGH FOR NIGHT AND MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO EXTEND INLAND INTO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND
VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...THEN THE MARINE LAYER WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE IN DEPTH AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING INLAND WARMING FOR SUNDAY WITH
AN INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE LIKELY FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH
FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT. IF IT MATERIALIZES...THAT
COULD SUPPORT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION SPREADING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER
PEAKING SUNDAY...INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD COME DOWN SOME FOR
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES.
DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF THE MOISTURE INFLUX AND THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER...AT LEAST ONE OF THOSE DAYS COULD HAVE COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE DGEX...
WHICH IS SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER PATTERN TO THE GFS AND ECMWF...TRIES
TO MAINTAIN THE MARINE INFLUENCE NEAR THE COAST. THIS WOULD CONTINUE
TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST COOLER. HOWEVER...WITH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS NOW IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S...LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED...POSSIBLY REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S SOME NIGHTS...
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
100900Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-OVC015-020 SPREADING 25-30 MI THROUGH
15Z. KONT COULD GET A BRIEF CIG BTWN 12Z-15Z. VIS WILL BE BELOW 2 MI
08Z-15Z IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS...MAINLY VCNTY KRNM AND KF70. SKIES
CLEARING BACK TO THE COAST THROUGH 17Z.

TONIGHT...BKN-OVC015-020 SPREADING BACK INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL
AIRPORTS BTWN 02-05Z FRIDAY.

MTNS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VIS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
300 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM








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