Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 040422
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1122 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Stratus return remains likely for our southern terminals. Models
this cycle haven`t changed regarding stratus return later tonight.
The San Angelo terminal stills looks marginal. Thus, continuing
VFR there and at Abilene looks reasonable this cycle.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for MVFR ceilings to return to much of West Central Texas
tonight. Models indicate stratus will return to our southern three
terminals later tonight. For now, VFR at the San Angelo and
Abilene terminals looks best. Expect VFR conditions by 18Z
tomorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

An upper high continues to dominate the southwestern states this
afternoon with the forecast area remaining on its eastern periphery
under a northwest flow aloft. Will  continue with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms this evening over the northeast Big
Country. The center of the upper high is forecast to move to the
southeast through tomorrow with its center over West Texas by late
tomorrow. The forecast area will come under a more northerly flow
aloft as the northwest flow aloft shifts a little more to our east
concomitant with the movement of the upper low. Consequently, a dry
forecast is on tap for the area tomorrow.

Overnight lows will be similar to this morning with lower 70s in
most locations. Expect highs tomorrow ranging from the lower 90s
over the southern CWA to the mid 90s over the northern CWA.

15

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

Near seasonal temperatures are forecast on Sunday, with highs
generally in the low to mid 90s, and breezy south winds of 10 to 20
mph. A surface trough will develop across West Texas, which may  be
the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms. At this time,
the majority of convection is expected to remain west of West
Central Texas, although an isolated shower or thunderstorms cannot
be ruled out across mainly western Crockett County.

A more active weather pattern is forecast across West Central Texas
for late Monday through Wednesday. A shear axis will develop across
West Central Texas Monday, as the upper level ridge weakens and
shifts west. This will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms
across West Texas which may approach our western counties by late in
the day Monday or Monday night, with slight chance PoPs across this
area. These rain chances will increase late Monday night into
Tuesday as a cold front approaches our northern counties. Only minor
changes were made to PoPs during this time frame, with the highest
PoPs across our northern/western counties. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible, as precipitable water values increase to 1.5 to 2
inches. Rain chances may linger into Wednesday, across mainly the
northern counties, before the upper level ridge strengthens and
builds back across West Central Texas Thursday through the end of
the week. Drier and seasonably hot conditions can be expected
through the rest of the week.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  93  74  93  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
San Angelo  71  93  72  93  74 /  10  10   5  10  10
Junction  72  90  73  91  73 /  10   5   5  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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