Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
FXUS64 KSJT 121739 AAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1138 AM CST THU DC 12 2013
VFR conditions will prevail across West Central Texas terminals
through Friday morning. Veil of mid and high clouds will spread
across the area, but ceilings will at or above 5k feet. As the
clouds lower, a few showers will develop. Any rainfall will be
light, and any drops in visibility and ceilings will be limited.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST THU DEC 12 2013/
VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. We will see mid
and upper level clouds through the next 24 hours, and CIGS should
fall to less than 10 thousand feet tonight, but remain VFR. A few
light showers are possible tonight, mainly after midnight, but
confidence is not high in this activity, so will only introduce
VCSH at this time. Light and variable winds will turn to south at
around 10 knots by 00Z at most locations. 20
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST THU DEC 12 2013/
(Today and Tonight)
Upper level low continues to churn off the southern California coast
early this morning. We continue to see copious amounts of mid and
upper level moisture across our area as Pacific moisture is drawn
eastward ahead of this low. We can expect to see these mid and upper
level clouds continue today and tonight. This will limit heating
today, so have kept the cooler than normal highs going for today
with lower 40s north of Interstate 20 to near 50 along and south of
Interstate 10. South to southeast winds at the surface will help
return limited moisture to the area as well.
Tonight, have kept slight chance PoPs in the forecast. Models
continue to show light amounts of rainfall across the area. The
upper level low is expected to move into southern California by
this afternoon, then continue eastward into Arizona during the
overnight hours while opening up into an open wave. The nose of a
250mb jet streak of 120+ knots will move toward the area during
the overnight hours, helping to provide synoptic lift across the
area and result in a chance for showers across west Texas.
However, precipitation that develops will have some difficulty
making it through a dry layer between 600mb and 900mb, and for
that reason we kept PoPs in the slight chance category.
(Friday until Wednesday)
Chance of showers will end on Friday with dry weather through
mid-week and temperatures warming to a few degrees above normal.
An upper short-wave trough over the Desert Southwest Friday morning
will move east over the Texas Panhandle Friday afternoon, pushing a
cold front through the Panhandle Friday evening. Ongoing showers
associated with upper disturbances in the southwest flow aloft ahead
of this system will continue over the forecast area Friday morning
and end from west to east through the afternoon hours. The cold
front will move south through the area overnight Friday. Prefrontal
warming ahead of the cold front will result in afternoon highs on
Friday warming into the upper 50s and lower 60s over the area. The
cold front will be completely through the area by Saturday morning
with postfrontal highs on Saturday ranging from the mid 40s north to
the lower 50s south.
Dry conditions will continue through mid-week with afternoon highs
warming into the 60s area-wide by Monday and into Tuesday. A dry
weak cold front will move through the area Tuesday night lowering
afternoon highs on Wednesday into the mid 50s. Post-frontal morning
lows Sunday morning will be in the mid to upper 20s with morning
lows in the lower to mid 30s Monday through mid-week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 41 36 59 33 45 / 0 20 20 5 10
San Angelo 47 36 63 35 49 / 0 20 20 5 10
Junction 51 38 60 36 52 / 0 20 20 5 10