Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 040403
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1103 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Stratus is expected to develop at KJCT and KSOA around 12z,
resulting in MVFR ceilings. The stratus may approach KSJT and
KBBD, but confidence remains low, so VFR ceilings were continued
at this time. VFR conditions will return to all sites by late
morning. Light winds overnight will become southeast at 5 to 10
knots Friday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KJCT and KSOA around 12z, then
slowly spread north. Confidence remains low that it will reach
KSJT and KBBD, so for now these terminals were kept VFR. VFR
conditions will return to all sites by late morning Friday. Light
winds overnight will become southeast at 5 to 10 knots Friday
afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Still quiet in the short term, with high pressure aloft in control.
Despite a decent cumulus field this afternoon, temperatures have
climbed into the low to mid 90s areawide. There has been a little
vertical development in the Cu on satellite across the southern
sections, but nothing noted on radar and nothing really expected
this afternoon either. TTU WRF suggests a little more development on
Friday afternoon, with perhaps a very isolated shower or
thunderstorm developing. Given the coverage it notes, going to keep
the 10 PoPs in the forecast but not mention anything in the forecast
for now. Will monitor and see if it shows any better coverage.
Otherwise, more of the same for temperatures with little change in
air mass for now.

07

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Labor Day)

The long term forecast, through Labor Day, remains dry, with
afternoon highs still well above seasonal normals. Models
continue to develop an upper trough over the Pacific northwest.
By Labor Day, this trough will dominate the Central and Northern
Rockies. However, models continue to indicate the upper ridge,
which has been so persistent over Texas, won`t relinquish its
position; it actually will broaden toward the west. The thermal
ridge at 850mb will continue to expand into West Central Texas,
from the west, each afternoon. Thus, afternoon highs mainly in the
mid 90s to around 100 look likely, especially for Sunday afternoon
and Monday afternoon.

(Monday night through Thursday)

The upper pattern continues to evolve mid to late next week, as
the ridge aloft shifts to the west. Models continue in fairly good
agreement, with northwest flow aloft developing over West Central
Texas by mid week. With the potential for minor disturbances in
the northwest flow aloft, rain chance improve for the Tuesday
through Thursday periods. The only caveat is the GFS is not as
aggressive with QPF development as the ECMWF. The ECMWF actually
brings a surface trough, or weak back-door cold front, to a
location near the Red River by late weak. So, the best rain
chances for Thursday reflect this ECMWF solution. Afternoon highs
will also decrease to numbers closer to seasonal normals by
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  73  94  74 /   0   5   5   5
San Angelo  97  72  94  74 /   5   5  10   5
Junction  94  72  93  72 /   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Daniels



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