Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KSJT 212304
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
504 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Light and variable
winds tonight will become west/southwest by tomorrow morning at
10 knots or less. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Dry and Continued Unseasonably Warm...

As upper ridging builds over the area from the southwest,
northwesterly flow aloft over the area will back to the west
tonight and will be out of the southwest by tomorrow. 850mb
temperatures will warm from around 14C this afternoon to 17C to
19C by tomorrow afternoon. Looking for sunny skies tomorrow with
afternoon highs around 20 to 25 degrees warmer than average, 85
degrees at Abilene (normal 62 degrees), and 89 degrees at San
Angelo (normal 65 degrees.) Morning lows tomorrow across the area
will also be warmer than average with lows mostly in the mid 40s
under clear skies (normals for the area are in the upper 30s.)

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

High Fire Danger Possible on Thursday...

Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue on Thursday as
southwest to westerly downslope flow continues, with a strong
thermal ridge in place across the area. Model 850 MB temperatures
between 20 and 22 DEG C will translate to afternoon highs again in
the upper 80s areawide, with a few lower 90s possible. It still
looks like San Angelo will break a record high on Thursday, with a
forecast high of 90 and the current record standing at 85
degrees. Abilene will be close and should either tie or come in
just under the current record of 85 degrees. Hot temperatures
combined with breezy southwest surface winds and low afternoon
relative humidities will also contribute to elevated and possibly
critical fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon. At this time,
it appears that the western Concho Valley and portions of the Big
Country stand the best chance to see possible Red Flag conditions
Thursday afternoon. No headlines were issued this forecast cycle
but will continue to monitor for critical fire weather conditions
on Thursday.

A cold front is still on track to move across the area late
Thursday night, bringing cooler temperatures to the area for
Friday and Saturday. Highs Friday will be in the in the upper 60s
and lower 70s, with highs on Saturday ranging from the upper 50s
north, to the upper 60s south. Temperatures Friday night are
expected to drop int the mid and upper 30s as radiational cooling
is maximized due to clear skies, a dry airmass and light winds.
Warmer weather is expected Sunday through Tuesday, with afternoon
highs back in the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  46  85  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  45  89  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  43  88  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  41  83  49  88 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  50  86  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       43  86  49  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.