Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 260518
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1118 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Southwest to west winds of 5 to 12 KTS will prevail through the
next 24 hours. VFR with a dry atmosphere in place.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

North winds will become light as winds decouple through 2Z.
Winds will become west mid/late Monday morning as weak surface high
pressure moves east and a lee trough develops. VFR next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

A weak cold front moved across West Central TX this morning,
resulting in gusty north winds and an influx of slightly drier air.
Temperatures have warmed into the 60s areawide with high clouds
thinning throughout the day. Winds are forecast to diminish rapidly
around sunset, backing to the west during the evening and overnight
hours. The surface anticyclone will shift southeast across the
southern portion of the CWA overnight. This will yield light winds
south of the Colorado River, where temperatures are forecast to fall
into the low/mid 30s by sunrise. Farther north, winds will stay up
in the 5-10 mph range. This will keep overnight temperature in the
mid 30s to near 40 degrees.

Winds will maintain a generally westerly component throughout the
day tomorrow, increasing to 8-12 mph during the afternoon hours.
Temperatures at 850 mb are progged to warm approximately 6C (to
around 13C). With full insolation and adequate mixing, most of West
Central TX should realize max temperatures in the lower 70s. As Yoda
would say, "A fantastic day, will it be." PoPs will remain nil
through the short-term.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

Above normal temperatures are the main story for the first half of
the week. Upper level ridging on Tuesday will allow afternoon
temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 70s across most of
West Central Texas. Much of the same is forecast on Wednesday,
although compressional heating ahead of a cold front may result in
slightly warmer temperatures. Most locations will top out in the
mid to upper 70s, although a few locations may break the 80 degree
mark.

An upper level trough will swing across the Northern Plains late
Wednesday, sending a cold front through West Central Texas Thursday
morning. Cooler temperatures are forecast Thursday, with highs in
the lower to mid 60s, and overnight lows in the upper 30s to near
40. On Friday, an upper level low will develop across southern
California, then slowly meander south toward Baja California through
the weekend. The ECMWF has come into better agreement with the GFS
in sending intermittent disturbances in the southwest flow aloft
across West Central Texas, resulting in light to moderate rain. Rain
chances will increase from west to east Friday into the weekend,
with PoPs in the high end chance to likely category. Plenty of
uncertainty remains, but preliminary QPF totals look to be in the
one half to one inch range for much of the area.

In addition to the precipitation chances late this week, cooler
temperatures are forecast. The increased clouds/precipitation will
keep highs on Friday in the upper 40s to lower 50s, and highs on
Saturday in the 40s for most locations. A reinforcing shot of colder
air is forecast to move through the area Saturday night.
Temperatures Sunday morning may be supportive of snow across at
least the northern and western counties, but differences remain in
the extent of the cold airmass that will move into the region. For
now, a rain/snow mix was introduced, generally north and west of a
Mertzon to Haskell line.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  39  72  43  74  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  33  74  38  78  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Junction  31  74  37  77  42 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/04





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