Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 181724
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1224 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas terminals
through Saturday. A few showers or storms remain possible, but
given the low chances involved, will not mention in the aviation
forecast at this point. Winds will remain light, mainly out of the
south and southeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas terminals
through Friday. A few showers or storms remain possible, but
given the low chances involved, will not mention in the aviation
forecast at this point. Winds will remain light, mainly out of the
south and southeast.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

After fairly widespread convection across much of the Concho Valley
and Edwards Plateau on Thursday, high pressure aloft will build
across the area this afternoon and rain chances will decrease. TTU
WRF shows a few showers and storms across the Big Country today, but
given the abundant left over boundaries and low level moisture, can
not rule out a stray shower or storms farther south as well. Will
add a mention of storms to areas north and west of an Ozona to San
Angelo to Brownwood line. Otherwise, high temperatures should climb
a few degrees this afternoon with a little less cloud cover in
place, reaching the mid and upper 90s for most locations. clearing
skies tonight with overnight lows dropping into the low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

Generally hot and dry conditions are expected this weekend into
the first part of next week, as upper level ridging dominates. An
isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible across the Big Country
on Saturday, most most locations are forecast to remain dry Highs
will generally be in the mid to upper 90s, with overnight lows in
the low to mid 70s.

On Tuesday, an upper level low will move into South Texas with
upper level ridging beginning to shift west toward the Southwest
United States. In the meantime, an upper level trough will swing
across the northern Plains, sending a cold front south into the
Southern Plains. The ECMWF is farther south with the front than
the GFS, bringing it into West Central Texas Wednesday into
Thursday. This solution would result in increased rain chances for
much of the area. For now, PoPs were kept in the 20-30 percent
range, given the uncertainty this far out. Slightly cooler
temperatures are expected for the middle to latter part of the
work week, with highs in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  73  97  74 /  20  10  10   5
San Angelo  97  72  97  73 /  20  10   5   5
Junction  98  71  98  72 /   5   5   5   5
Brownwood  97  72  97  73 /  20  10  10   5
Sweetwater  96  73  95  73 /  20  10  10   5
Ozona       95  71  95  72 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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