Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
FXUS64 KSJT 281808
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
108 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014
Currently an outflow boundary was moving south towards the
Colorado River. Visible Satellite and radar data show isolated
showers developing near the boundary. Various model data continues
to show isolated convection developing across much of the area.
We`ve extended the slight chance of precipitation south to the
Interstate 10 corridor to account for these trends.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 101 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/
VFR conditions and light winds will dominate the weather at all
terminals through the next 24 hours. At 17z, an outflow boundary
was located between KABI and KSJT. This boundary is expected to
stall just south of KSJT later this afternoon. Winds will shift
to the northwest to northeast following it`s passage, with a few
showers developing near the boundary. VCSH was inserted at KABI.
Farther south confidence remains low, thus, will leave out of the
TAFs for now.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. As a cold front moves through the northern area today, an
isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible along the front.
However, convective activity will not be included in the KABI TAF
due to the isolated nature of storm coverage. The remaining
terminals will remain south of any thunderstorm activity.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
(Today and Tonight)
Early this morning, a cold front is located from the northwestern
Panhandle to midway between Amarillo and Lubbock and then east
across southern Oklahoma. Convective activity is occurring along the
frontal boundary in the northwestern Panhandle area and along the
frontal boundary in southern Oklahoma. An outflow boundary is noted
moving into the northern Big Country. The cold front is expected to
sag south through the Big Country and into the northern Heartland
today before becoming stationary tonight. Will continue the slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms along and north of the cold
front with the best chance of precipitation in the northern Big
Country. Highs today will be similar to yesterday with upper 90s to
around the 100 degree mark south of interstate 20. Mid 90s are
expected over the Big Country due to increased cloud cover and some
cool air advection behind the frontal boundary. Morning lows
tomorrow will generally be in the lower 70s.
(Tuesday through Sunday)
The long-term portion of the forecast remains essentially
unchanged, with slight chance to chance PoPs through next weekend
across much of West Central Texas. Models continue a stalled cold
front over West Central Texas through mid week. Then, models
indicate another weak cold front will push into West Central Texas
on Thursday. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement
with this potential scenario. With a persistent upper ridge
continuing to the west, this solution at least looks possible. So,
continuing PoPs unchanged from the previous package looks
reasonable for the long-term periods. In addition, cooler
temperatures at 850 mb later this week points to potential
afternoon highs a category or two below seasonal normals,
especially for Friday and next weekend.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 92 72 93 72 97 / 20 30 30 20 10
San Angelo 93 73 96 72 100 / 20 20 10 20 10
Junction 90 73 96 71 100 / 10 10 10 5 5