Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 251850
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC A CUT-OFF LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TOMORROW
MEANDERING AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY...AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LOW. AS PATTERN EVOLVES...WINDS WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY PULLING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED DURING MUCH
OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS OBSERVED EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET. URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHEASTERLY...PASSING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR WITH STREAMERS FORMING OFF THE
ISLANDS AND BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS DURING
THE NIGHTTIME. AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES DUE TO THE
CUT-OFF LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH...A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
DURING THE END OF WEEK...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ABOVE THAN
NORMAL PWAT VALUES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THRU NEXT
MONDAY. IN GENERAL...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND OVER THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND FROM SW
PR TO WITHIN 15 MILES OF TJSJ WITH MTN TOPS OBSCD FROM 25/17Z
THROUGH 25/22Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS FROM THE E-NE AT 10 TO 15
KT...GUSTING UP 24KT TIL 25/23Z. LAND BREEZES DEVELOPING AFT
26/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...NEARSHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET AND
EAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BELOW 5
FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  87  78  88 /  50  50  20  20
STT  77  88  77  88 /  50  50  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/13



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