Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 011909
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...LAYER OF SAHARAN AIR BETWEEN 850 MB AND 550 MB HAD
MOVED OVER MACM BY 12Z THIS MORNING AND HELPED REDUCE OR END THE
SHOWERS TODAY SOONER THAN EXPECTED. HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN PR
ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO VERY LITTLE CONVECTION TO OCCUR THERE SO FAR.
THIS LAYER CONTINUES TO PROGRESS WESTWARD AND INCREASINGLY WILL
SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS THE REST OF TODAY.

REDUCED THE SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT TO NO MORE THAN ISOLATED
THOUGH THE 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WE WILL HAVE WILL BE
MAINLY CONCENTRATED BELOW 850 MB AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS FOR WINDWARD LOCATIONS.

NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES FRI/FRI NIGHT ACCORDING TO
GFS AS A WAVE BRUSHES PAST BUT A BETTER CHANCE NEXT TUE/WED AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ENVELOPE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH AROUND 2 INCHES
PRECIPITABLE WATER.

&&

.AVIATION...SAHARAN AIR WILL KEEP SHRA MINIMAL THRU THU...AND CAUSE
SOME FALSE CIGS AT TIST/TISX. VFR XCP PSBL MVFR IN SHRA AT TJMZ
THIS AFT AND THU AFT. WIND BLW FL180 E 15-25 KT STRENGTHENING
16-35 KT THU NITE/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED IN NEAR TERM BUT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE OFFSHORE IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE BUT
GREATER CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI. SMALL CRAFT FOR OFFSHORE CONTINUES
AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  89 /  10  10  10  40
STT  79  89  79  90 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

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