Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 201923
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
323 PM AST WED AUG 20 2014

SYNOPSIS...
TUTT LOW NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN SLOPES TODAY. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS HAD FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL
RAIN...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN JAYUYA AND MAYAGUEZ. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE DISSIPATING.

.DISCUSSION...
TUTT LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE RETROGRADING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL MOVE IN AS A WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...THEN REACHING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
LATE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA.

THE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE ON THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. GFS MODEL HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES STARTING LATE THURSDAY...BUT INCREASING
EVEN MORE TO OVER 2.5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ABOUT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR TSRAS VCNTY JBQ/JMZ THRU 21/00Z...OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. ERLY SFC/LOW
LEVEL WINDS 10-20 KTS THRU 21/00Z...BCMG 5-10KTS AFT 21/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND BREEZE THROUGH THU MORNING. WINDS
FRESHENING THU AFTERNOON AS A WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE PUSHES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. WINDS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE AND SEAS
6-8 FT DURING THIS PERIOD THU THRU SAT AS THE WAVE PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  77  86 /  40  60  60  90
STT  79  90  79  89 /  40  50  60  90

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

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