Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 270948 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED
BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN INTO THE
TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGHS NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FRESH TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK...
BECOMING STRONG LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OBSERVED ACROSS
THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO. EASTERLY WINDS WERE LIGHT
WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL TODAY UNDER BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT. A WETTER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS REMNANTS OF
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA...WITH BEST MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED AS SOON AS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN USVI AND THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO
RICO...SPREADING ACROSS ST CROIX...THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO
RICO AS WELL AS OVER THE CORDILLERA SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK... THEREFORE
THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IS
ANTICIPATED.

A SHARP DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH
VALUES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES CANT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY. BY FRIDAY...
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH TIGHTENS THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THRU
LATE TONIGHT. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE FLYING AREA FM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SHRA ACTIVITY WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CIGS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE THE ATLC
COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND PEAK LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BASED ON LATEST BUOYS OBSERVATIONS...
STILL EXPECT BREAKING WAVES BETWEEN 14 AND 16 FEET. THEREFORE
COASTAL FLOOD CRITERIA STILL MARGINAL. HOWEVER...HIGH SURF AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  83  74  82  72 /  10  70  70  50
STT  85  74  85  74 /  10  70  70  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM AST MONDAY
     FOR CULEBRA-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND
     VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM AST MONDAY
    FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

27/23




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