Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 190425

925 PM PDT Thu Sep 18 2014

Dry and warmer weather through the weekend except a slight chance of
afternoon thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada. Cooling next week
with some precipitation possible around midweek.


Clearing skies this evening as offshore closed upper low is drifting
southward and modeled to be off the SoCal coast by Friday afternoon.
Upstream ridging will build over the West Coast through the weekend
bringing warmer temperatures. Highs expected to range from near to
upwards of 10 degrees above normal with upper 80s to upper 90s in
the Central Valley. Relatively weak delta breeze, currently, is
expected to gradually trend upwards through the weekend. Models
showing some moisture and instability over the Sierra Nevada to
support a slight chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Surface
high pressure builds through the PacNW into the Great Basin as
thermal troughing deepens along the coast. This will increase
offshore flow late Friday into Saturday and bring increased
potential for smoke from the King fire to spread westward into the
Central Valley.


.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Dry weather continues Monday into Tuesday as high pressure remains
over the Western US. This will bring a few days of above normal

The pattern changes again during the middle of next week as
another upper trough approaches again. Current progs suggest that
next week`s system may be a bit deeper and could tap into a decent
moisture plume. Feeling confident about the pattern change, but
less so with possible showery coverage and precipitation amounts.
With this forecast package, we`ve bumped up precipitation wording,
keeping the best chances generally north of Interstate 80. At the
very least, this pattern change will bring about some considerable
cooling for the middle of next week.



Ofshr upr low movs off SoCal cst Fri as upr rdg blds ovr NorCal. VFR
conds nxt 24 hrs exc lcl MVFR/IFR conds in FU vcnty of King fire.


.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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