Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
000
FXUS66 KSTO 061000
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
200 AM PST Fri Mar 6 2015

.Synopsis...
Warm daytime temperatures will continue into early next week
under ridge of high pressure over the western U.S. Daytime highs
over the weekend will be around 10 to 15 degrees above normal with
nighttime low temperatures around normal. High temperatures
returning to closer to normal by the middle of next week with
possible return of precipitation starting Wednesday.

&&

.Discussion...
Fair skies over the CWA this morning as the high pressure portion
of an upper level Rex block pattern centers over the west coast.
Nothing in the way of valley fog this morning with airmass
remaining too dry and this is likely to be the case for the next
few days. Upper ridge axis slips inland slightly today and this
will bring a warming of the airmass as subsidence increases. The
overall airmass warms around 5 degrees today so could see several
degrees of warming many locations. Pressure gradients remain
mainly light under the ridge so light north to east winds will
continue. High pressure aloft remains the dominant feature over
the west coast through the weekend with daytime highs warming just
a bit more. High temperatures in the northern Sacramento valley
will be pushing up to near 80 degrees Saturday and Sunday. Daytime
highs elsewhere will be running from 10 to 15 degrees above
normal. Little change in overall pattern expected on Monday with
upper ridge remaining firmly in place one last day before
transition in weather pattern expected later in the week.
&&


.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Ridge begins to flatten and shift eastward by Tuesday as low
pressure system spinning offshore between 140 and 150 W slowly
moves closer to the the West Coast. Large spread in model
solutions continues and lends to low confidence in mid to late
week forecast. GFS continues to paint a faster, weaker solution
with a quick shot of precip, mainly across Oregon and far northern
CA late Tuesday into Wednesday, leaving the rest of the area high
and dry. Latest ECMWF coming more in line with GFS but still
depicts slower, wetter solution with precip over the area late
Wednesday into Thursday. This solution also features colder air
with lowering snow levels (but still fairly high around 6000-7000
ft). GEM a compromise between the two. Have continued with middle
of the road approach until clearer solutions appears which leads
to slight-low chc of precip across the area for Wednesday -
Thursday timeframe. Best chances across northern portions of the
area and mountains. Temperatures will be cooler than this coming
weekend, but still near or slightly above normal for this time of
year. Regardless of what happens mid- week, it looks like ridging
may return for Friday into the weekend with dry weather. CEO

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions thru the forecast period with calm to light winds
and clear skies. CEO

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.