Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 260449
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1050 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Aviation Section Updated

.UPDATE...

With a high pressure ridge and fair weather prevailing this
evening into Monday morning, decreased Monday morning lows for
most places per latest consensus of MOS guidance. Rest of
tonight`s forecast remains valid.
Jaszka

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Upper level high pressure ridging over the region will bring hot
and dry conditions to the region Monday. A surface cold front
sweeps across the state Monday night for showers and thunderstorms
and cooler temperatures Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 0450Z.
VFR conditions will continue to prevail over the region
tonight...with just some passing clouds along the front range of the
Rockies. Surface winds will increase around mid day over North
Central MT...with scattered thunderstorms developing towards 00z Tue
along the front range of the Rockies. Expect the storms to move off
the mountains Monday evening. Some storms could be strong. Brusda

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning has been issue as confidence increases that there
will be critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon into
evening in our far northeastern areas, primarily Blaine County.
Gusty southeast winds ahead of a surface low pressure system will
combine with minimum RH values in the teens and increasingly dry
fuels in eastern portions of Fire Weather Zone 113. Latest Day 2
Fire Weather Outlook from SPC indicates an "elevated" risk and
communications with the SPC fire weather desk suggests that a
"critical" risk could be issued by Monday morning. CC/MPJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017/

Tonight through Monday night...Expect a tranquil night tonight
with few clouds as the upper ridge axis approaches the region.
Axis of the thermal ridge will move across Montana on Monday for
hot temperatures with breezy to windy conditions developing ahead
of a surface low pressure system. This system moves through
central Montana Monday evening and is expected to bring showers
and thunderstorms through the overnight Monday night as a surface
cold front sweeps across the state.
CC/MPJ

Tuesday through Saturday...Unsettled weather continues into
Tuesday with afternoon high temperatures dropping back toward
seasonal averages once again. A closed upper level low is then
forecast to drift slowly south-southeast across AB/SK through the
mid-week period. This places our region in a weak northwest flow
aloft, resulting in near-average temperatures and chances for
scattered light showers. Isolated afternoon thundershowers will be
possible both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. This upper level
low moves away Thursday night, replaced by fair weather on Friday
under a progressive ridge. The next shortwave trough arrives on
Saturday, possibly creating an environment capable of supporting
stronger thunderstorms. The current cycle presents reasonably good
agreement among models through this period, but prior solutions
have been rather inconsistent from one run to the next. Therefore,
overall confidence in the forecast remains moderate through
Thursday, then is low for the end of the period.
PN/CC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  92  60  79 /   0  10  60  50
CTB  50  90  58  77 /   0  10  50  30
HLN  53  93  59  80 /   0  40  60  50
BZN  47  91  54  77 /   0  20  30  50
WEY  39  79  43  69 /   0   0  30  60
DLN  51  89  55  75 /   0  20  50  50
HVR  52  94  62  83 /   0   0  30  40
LWT  49  85  58  76 /   0   0  30  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday Hill and Blaine
Counties.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls


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