Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 042327
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
525 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPDATED AVIATION

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM AN UPPER TROF
ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE AN
AIRMASS WITH A CAPE OF 500+ J/KG AND SHEAR 0F 35 KTS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING AND THE FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END
ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL REMAIN WARM AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
BUT NORTH WINDS FRIDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NORTH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST THOUGH...POSSIBLY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. ON SUNDAY...THE EC/GFS START TO DIFFER A
BIT ON THE TIMING OF THE FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THUS
POPS ARE GENERALLY LOW FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EC ALSO
SEEMS TO BE STRONGER WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WHEN COMPARED
TO THE GFS. FOR NOW...KEPT THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION GENERALLY
LOW FROM SUNDAY THRU WED...WITH QPF EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO THE
GFS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION...THAT SNOW LEVELS COULD LOWER TO 5500 TO 6000 FEET BY
TUESDAY MORNING. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A WARMING TREND
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES COOL OFF BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
FOR MON THRU WED. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
INCLUDING KCTB OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY. AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE TREASURE STATE ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AT KCTB AND KHLN AFTER 2000UTC. SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KGTF AROUND 2200UTC
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON HOW FAR EAST THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD BY 00UTC FRIDAY. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KCTB OR KHLN IN OR NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  80  44  58 /   0  10  40  40
CTB  44  71  40  60 /  10  20  60  50
HLN  47  82  47  61 /   0  20  40  30
BZN  43  82  45  63 /   0  10  30  40
WEY  40  68  42  56 /   0  20  20  40
DLN  45  79  46  63 /  10  20  40  50
HVR  48  82  48  68 /   0   0  60  40
LWT  48  82  46  60 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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