Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 192056

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
256 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

West to northwest flow aloft will continue over the region through
the remainder of the weekend. Precipitation is not expected and
areas of smoke and haze from area wildfires will persist.
Temperatures will warm back above seasonal averages on Sunday. Dry
conditions and very warm to hot temperatures will continue to
affect the region through at least mid-week.



Tonight through Monday...Surface front brought higher humidity
and cooler temperatures to the northern half of the CWA today.
This feature is expected to continue moving southward this evening
with slightly cooler temperatures possible in Southwest Montana on
Sunday. However, models are in good agreement that temperatures
across North Central and Central Montana will rebound back toward
seasonal averages. Dry west to northwest flow aloft continues
across the region on Monday with temperatures remaining near or
above seasonal averages. Winds are expected to remain generally
light over the next few days so fire weather concerns are not
anticipated. mpj

Monday Night through Saturday...A high pressure ridge aloft will
traverse the CWA from west to east Monday night through
Wednesday, resulting in warmer temperatures and primarily dry
weather. Somewhat cooler temperatures, along with scattered
showers and thunderstorms, remain possible next week Thursday and
Friday due to an upper-level trough digging southward and
eastward from British Columbia. Drier conditions and slightly
warmer temperatures may return by Saturday of next weekend, as
another high pressure ridge aloft builds-in from the south and
west. Low and high temperatures are still expected to be near or
slightly above-normal during the period. The warmest readings
will likely occur Tuesday and Wednesday, when the first of the
two aforementioned high pressure ridges is overhead.


Updated 1745z.

Smoky and hazy conditions persist across parts of central and
southwestern Montana this morning. These conditions are due to a
westerly flow aloft blowing smoke from neighboring wildfires in
western Montana. Expect some impacts to visibility for BZN and EKS
through the afternoon and evening hours, with periods of MVFR
possible before clearing up by tonight. Otherwise, a cold front has
dropped south across central Montana this morning, causing a wind
shift from the north. This will help slightly with clearing out some
smoke, however a continued westerly flow aloft above this shallow
wind shift/surface front may keep light smoky conditions for GTF and
HLN terminals. Because of this, expected visibility will not be as
limited as yesterday. However, hazy conditions may lead to distant
mountain/ridgetop obscuration through the evening hours. Northern
Montana will reside in a post-frontal environment with winds
primarily out of the north. Only exception will be in CTB where wind
directions ranging 020-080 may cause upslope mid to low-level clouds
periodically through the afternoon. KLG



Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for portions of the forecast
area until 9 pm MDT this evening for low RH and gusty winds.
Additional fire weather highlights are not anticipated through
mid-week but still remain possible due to continued very warm, dry
and potentially breezy conditions. Next widespread fire weather
event is expected around Thursday as the upper ridge collapses and
a surface cold front spreads gusty winds and scattered dry
thunderstorms across western and central Montana. mpj


GTF  49  80  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  45  77  45  80 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  52  83  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  48  82  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  37  76  38  76 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  46  81  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  49  81  50  83 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  49  79  50  80 /  10   0   0  10


Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening Deerlodge/Western
Beaverhead National Forest...Eastern Beaverhead National
Forest...Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest.


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