Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 241751
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1050 AM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

Aviation Section Updated

.UPDATE...

Overall the forecast remains on track. Areas of morning fog should
begin to diminish...and end by noon. Meanwhile...a few scattered
light snow showers are occurring across central and southern
portions. The snow in the central may linger into the
afternoon...but cause little impacts. The snow in the south will be
possible through the day...and possibly tonight into Saturday.
Some light to moderate accumulations are possible...with perhaps a
few impacts to area roads. Confidence still remains only moderate
widespread impacts will be seen. For now will keep with no
advisories and issue SPS for any problem areas that arise. Anglin

&&


.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.

Light snow showers are expected to redevelop once again this
afternoon and into the evening hours across most of the terminal
forecast area, with the exception of North Central Montana were
mainly dry conditions are anticipated. The redevelopment of these
snow showers are reflected well in the mid-morning runs of the
higher resolution models, however, coverage is expected to be
generally spotty in nature. MVFR/VFR conditions are expected to
accompany the aforementioned snow showers for the afternoon and
evening hours. Lowering ceilings and/or visibility`s approaching IFR
conditions will once again be possible along and north of the Hi-
Line after the midnight hour tonight. - Moldan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 AM MST Fri Feb 24 2017/

Today through Sunday...In short, temperatures remain a few degrees
below average through the weekend, while scattered snow showers will
develop at times across North-central and Southwest MT. At large
scales, a broad and nearly stationary longwave trough persists
across the western U.S.. A weak anticyclonic flow aloft over eastern
Montana splits the trough and inhibits the movement of a remnant low
stuck in this pattern. Cloud cover will persist over the area today
with scattered light snow flurries continuing at times over
southwest Montana associated with low level convergence in a surface
trough over southeast ID. This activity has been dissipating
overnight, but another round of snow shower activity is expected to
perk up this afternoon over southwest MT. Snow accumulations should
remain rather light, but will continue to monitor for possible
travel hazards through the day. The split flow aloft finally
collapses later tonight into Saturday as the next upstream shortwave
pushes across the state. Surface winds turn westerly and downslope
on Saturday night with pressure falls over southern Alberta. A new
round of moderate snowfall spreads into the Northern Rockies from
Canada on Sunday, possibly producing light snow across N-central MT
by late Sunday. PN

Sunday night through Friday...Medium range models are in fair
agreement on the overall large scale pattern this period, beginning
with an upper level trough over the western US early next week,
followed by a fast progression of shortwaves ejecting out of digging
trough in the Gulf of AK and moving swiftly east along the
US/Canadian border during the middle to latter parts of next week.
Temperatures remain below seasonal averages to start next week then
moderate back to seasonal averages later next week. Series of fast
moving shortwaves will send several clipper type lows along the US
Canadian border mid to late next week, with models still having some
difficulty with timing and strength of these features at this time
range. Potential for strong winds with the passage of these
features, particularly on Wed and Thurs of next week. Temperatures
could also fluctuate significantly across northern zones as warming
occurs under periods of strong winds with cold air briefly being
dragged south from ALberta behind the passage of these clipper
systems. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  14  29  18 /  20  10  10  10 CTB  24   9  26  15 /  10  10
10  10 HLN  29  11  27  14 /  20  20  10  10 BZN  25  12  26  10 /
60  30  30  10 WEY  20   4  17   0 /  60  40  50  30 DLN  23  10  23
  9 /  50  40  20  10 HVR  30  16  28  17 /  20  20  20  10 LWT  28
14  27  15 /  30  40  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls



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