Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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571
FXUS63 KTOP 280805
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
305 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Surface high pressure centered near the Great Lakes region will nose
into eastern Kansas through the day and overnight hours keeping
conditions relatively benign.  Winds from the northeast will
gradually shift from the east by early evening as this high pressure
shifts eastward.  This will aid in some cool air advection into
northeast Kansas keeping temperatures today similar to those seen
yesterday.  Highs will be in the mid 80s.  Dissimilar to yesterday,
drier dewpoints are finally seen this afternoon, around mid-60s,
leading to less humid conditions for the day.  Weak waves in the
upper level northwest flow allow showers and storms to form in
western NE late night, but any precipitation is expected to diminish
before reaching northeast Kansas.  With skies mostly clear
overnight, diurnal cooling will drop low temperatures into the low
to mid-60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Saturday night through Sunday, A weak upper level trough will round
the upper level ridge across the southern high plains. The ECMWF and
GFS show this upper level trough digging southeast across western KS
into northern OK and keeps any showers and thunderstorms west and
south of the CWA. The NAM model is a bit farther north and does
not build the surface ridge of high pressure to the southwest as
quick as the GFS and ECMWF. Therefore, if the 00Z NAM model
solution turns out to be more accurate, then there may be a chance
for thunderstorms saturday morning across the western half of the
CWA, then at least a slight chance for thunderstorms south of
I-70 Sunday afternoon. At this time I placed chance POPs across
the western counties Sunday morning and slight chance POPs south
of I-70 across the eastern half of the CWA.

Sunday night through Friday, it looks mainly dry as the upper level
ridge retrogrades and amplifies across the western US. The main
upper jet will be across the northern plains and Great Lakes States.
Eastern KS will be under weak northerly mid and upper level flow
with a nearly stationary surface ridge of high pressure across the
eastern Plains. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms that develop on
the high plains should drift south-southeastward and remain well
west of the CWA. I cannot rule out some minor shorter wave-length
mid level troughs rounding the upper ridge that may move southward
across KS and provide slight chances for showers and thunderstorms
later next week.

Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s Saturday through Tuesday with
mid to upper 80s Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

VFR prevails through period. Sct low clouds are developing near
terminals at the current hour. Short term forecast soundings are
consistent with the low level moisture around 4 kft, preventing
ground fog from forming around sunrise. Diurnal cumulus near 4 kft
develops aft 17Z with light northeast winds during the period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Prieto



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