Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 272312
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
612 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Shortwave trof that brought rain across the area into early this
morning has moved east of the area, and continues to wrap low clouds
back southwestward into the forecast area. Starting to see some
breaks with the afternoon sunshine, but think this may be short
lived.  Lingering cloud cover should hold overnight lows in the 40s,
with highs on Tuesday rising toward 60 most areas.  High pressure
moving in from the north keeps northerly winds early, becoming east
southeast into Tuesday afternoon.  Was hoping for some breaks in the
clouds, but as winds veer around from the east this would aid in
keeping low clouds lingering across the east. Western counties
should see an increase in mid/high clouds by late afternoon, with an
outside chance for rain far west in the late afternoon, but think
better chances are later in the evening and overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The weather pattern in the long term looks and cool and wet. The
models are in good agreement in the mass fields with two more
significant upper lows moving through the southern plains this
forecast period.

The first should emerge into the southern plains on Tuesday and
then slowly move ENE with the 500 mph low reaching SW Missouri by
18Z Thursday per the 12z ECMWF which is expected to be vertically
stacked with the surface low in the same location. The 12z GFS is
in the same general area with the upper low, but it is northwest
over eastern kansas. With respect to the sensible weather in
northeast Kansas, all the 12z synoptic models are reasonably close
with a prolonged period of cool rain. There is enough elevated
instability to justify thunder in the forecast. QPF should be high
and there might be local flooding issues if the rain can focus
over a given area long enough.

The second upper low approaches the southern plains by this
weekend. We can expect 36 to maybe 48 hours of dry and cool
weather late this week into the weekend before the precipitation
associated with the next upper low moves in. There is certainly
more model differences with the next system, but there is enough
confidence to forecast more rain.

Overall, we can expect below normal temperatures through the
period in the pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The RAP and NAM have tended to keep MVFR CIGS over the terminals
as 925MB winds back to the northeast and east. With satellite
showing an expansive cloud shift to the northeast, this makes some
since. There could be some tempo VFR CIGS this evening, but think
MVFR clouds should be predominate most of the forecast period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Wolters



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