Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 101124

National Weather Service Topeka KS
524 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Water vapor imagery shows a nearly zonal west to east flow across
Kansas this morning at 08Z. There is evidence in the imagery and
profilers of weak vorticity lobes moving into western Kansas and
southwest Nebraska. Warm advection in the 850-600mb layer has led to
the development of clouds across northwest Kansas into Nebraska this
morning. Stratus over eastern Kansas has been slowly moving eastward
while a few pockets of clearing have led to partly cloudy skies and
falling temperatures. Models show increasing warm advection today
across eastern Kansas which will send temperatures above the
freezing mark with highs from the mid 30s to near 40. Winds will
increase today as pressure gradient increases with the deepening of
a surface trough of low pressure over the Western High Plains

Forecast soundings along with relative humidity forecasts show
clouds over Oklahoma spreading northeast across the area today
keeping skies mostly cloudy. Tonight the lower boundary layer will
remain mixed through the night especially across northeast and east
central Kansas. This will lead to temperatures dropping off in the
evening then rising again later in the night. Expect initial cloud
deck to move out during the evening with clouds then redeveloping
from midnight through 12Z Sunday. Lows tonight will be in the 30s
with some upper 20s across north central Kansas as a cold front
approaches from the northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 328 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

By Sunday morning, a mid-level trough will be skimming eastward
across the Northern Plains with a surface cold front quickly
tracking eastward across the CWA.  Model soundings show shallow low-
level saturation across far east central Kansas with this frontal
passage Sunday morning, so have a mention of drizzle. With warm-air
advection expected overnight tonight into Sunday morning, expect
temperatures to be warm enough to keep this precipitation as drizzle
(rather than freezing drizzle).  Dry conditions are expected by the
afternoon as surface high pressure moves into the central U.S. and
quickly advances east of the area on Monday.  Increased temperatures
a couple of degrees across north central Kansas on Monday as winds
shift to the southwest.

Another cold front will quickly track across the CWA late Monday
afternoon through Monday night.  While no precipitation is expected
with this frontal passage, strong surface high pressure from the
north will surge into the central U.S., ushering much cooler air
into the region. Low temperatures early Tuesday morning will plunge
into the mid teens to low 20s with Tuesday high temperatures only
reaching into the mid 20s to low 30s.  There is the potential for
some scattered precipitation to develop near the Kansas/Nebraska
border late Tuesday night into Wednesday as weak embedded waves skim
near the area. However, models are trending toward having the better
moisture and lift focused further north across Nebraska. As a
result, trimmed PoPs out across the southern half of the CWA with
only slight chance PoPs across far northern Kansas.  Conditions will
be cold enough to keep any light precipitation in the form of snow.

These cooler than normal conditions will persist through the
remainder of the week with high temperatures steady in the 20s and
lows dropping into the teens. With these frigid conditions in place,
early morning wind chill values will be in the single digits.

Some scattered light snow will be possible across the northern half
of the CWA again on Thursday morning as another weak wave skims near
the area.  Precipitation chances increase by the end of the week as
models show a mid-level trough deepening across the western U.S.,
with increasing moisture and lift moving into the region.  If the
model solutions pan out, then this system may provide a more decent
chance for some light snow accumulations across much of the CWA.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 524 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

VFR conditions are expected for much of the period. Winds light
southeast will become south around 11 to 14 kts by 19Z with gusts
to 22 kts at MHK. MVFR cigs look to move into the terminals in the
08Z-11Z time period.




LONG TERM...Hennecke
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