Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 201555 RRA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
855 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SOME PASSING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND.  A FEW PATCHES OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF COCHISE AND
GRAHAM COUNTY.  FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DUE TO A PASSING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THIS MORNING UNDER DRY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. 12Z KTWC
SOUNDING DEPICTS A RELATIVELY STEEP INVERSION WHICH WILL MIX OUT AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES TO ABOUT 850MB. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 60S IN THE
TUCSON AREA.

AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME MAINLY
THIN CIRROFORM CLOUDINESS MOVING THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME ON THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

TROUGHINESS WILL DEEPEN MAINLY ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT. CAN`T RULE OUT JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO SQUEEZE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT
BUT WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BACK JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES MAINLY FOR GRAHAM/GREENLEE/COCHISE
TUESDAY WITH LITTLE NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM TUCSON WESTWARD OTHER
THAN THE WIND SHIFT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN US BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. LATEST TRENDS FAVOR A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE TO THE
NORTH OF OUR AREA AND SOME GUSTY WINDS DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST OF TUCSON AND
REEVALUATE WITH THE 12Z MODEL SUITE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/18Z.
SCT TO LCLY BKN MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS THRU THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND
LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL OCCUR
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING
SAFFORD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW
CONCERNING THE TIMING AND IMPACTS OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
MAKER WHICH MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN WINDS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
TUCSON TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS WELL AS THE BORDER WITH
NEW MEXICO.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

GL





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