Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 160426
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
925 PM MST MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INITIAL OUTER BAND OF TROPICAL STORM
ODILE. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL OCCURRING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS CWA WIDE ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS THE
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM NOW TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS SETTLING
IN. WV IMAGERY IS SHOWING A DECENT BATCH OF MID-LVL MOISTURE WORKING
ITS WAY INTO SRN AZ AT THIS HOUR. THIS IS MOISTURE IS BEING
TRANSLATED DOWN TO THE SFC WHERE DEWPOINTS AS OF 04Z ARE WORKING
THEIR WAY INTO THE LOW 60S...4-10 DEGS HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. SFC
TEMPS THIS EVENING WERE HOLDING STEADY IN THE 70S AND 80S AREA WIDE
WITH LIGHT GENERALLY SELY WINDS. DO BELIEVE THAT THIS IS THE
BEGINNING OF THINGS TO COME...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LIKELY INCREASING
TOMORROW MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH
FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST
HAS THE CENTER OF ODILES REMNANTS LOCATED IN CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY
THURSDAY EVENING. FORECAST FOR TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR
NOW...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. PLEASE SEE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE FORECAST PAST
TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/06Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  SCT CUMULUS AROUND 8K FT AGL WITH BKN-OVC LAYERS
ABOVE 12K FT.  AFTER 16/06Z AREAS OF CIGS NEAR 5K FT AGL DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE LAYERS ABOVE AND
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE VICINITY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
CERNIGLIA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TROPICAL MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
AND WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HURRICANE ODILE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.  WITH THAT COMES INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ONWARD.  THE STORMS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER OR SLOWER MOVING
STORMS...DAY OR NIGHT.  THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE REMAINS OF ODILE WITH
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THAT PERIOD OF
TIME...HOWEVER EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY ONWARD...BUT WITH NO
PRONOUNCED DRYING...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CERNIGLIA

.PREV DISCUSSION...LATEST NHC FORECAST HAD ODILE ON A LITTLE FATHER
EAST TRACK COMPARED TO PROJECTED TRACKS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS NEW
TRACK HAD RESULTED IN A BETTER CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS INITIAL PERIOD OF RAIN
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
THEREAFTER...THE TIMING OF THE PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE LESS CERTAIN
UNTIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL CAN BE
ANTICIPATED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL TOTAL 3 TO 5 INCHES
BY LATE THURSDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PRODUCTS
FOR MORE DETAILS. MOISTURE WILL LINGER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON FOR AZZ501-505-506-509-510.

  FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
  AZZ507-508-512-513.

  FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON FOR AZZ502>504-511-514-515.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREV DISCUSSION...DAVIS
AVIATION/FIRE WX...CERNIGLIA





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