Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 220927
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
225 AM MST FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER TODAY
WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A COUPLE OF COOLER THAN NORMAL
DAYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS TRACK THIS LOW NORTHEAST WITH IT EXITING THE STATE BY
THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WAS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AND PWATER
SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LOW. MODELS WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SPREADING THIS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY
AND MORE SO OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED. MODELS DO SHOW SOME DEEPER MOISTURE HANGING IN ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
MONDAY. THAT SAID...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON. OTHERWISE...
MEDIUM RANGES MODELS SHOWED THE STEERING FLOW BECOMING MORE EASTERLY
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL LIKELY HELP BRING SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA...
AND SUBSEQUENTLY RESULT IN AN UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY
NEXT THURSDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
DRIER AIR SPREADS IN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/12Z.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A KOLS TO KSAD
LINE THRU 22/16Z...ALONG WITH ISOLD -SHRA. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AOA 12K FT AGL. AFT 22/16Z...SCT CLOUDS AT 7-11K FT AGL AND
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 12K FT AGL. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST/SOUTH OF KTUS. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KTS WITH THE STRONGER TSRA.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS...SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS EAST OF A NOGALES TO SAFFORD LINE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
TUCSON METRO AREA. THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG...
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. OUTSIDE OF THESE THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS...
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY/TERRAIN DRIVEN AND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 MPH.

&&

$$

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