Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
FXUS65 KTWC 261512
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
811 AM MST Sun Mar 26 2017
.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry conditions with mild daytime temperatures
and some gusty afternoon winds through Monday. A low pressure system
will then bring cooler temperatures and a chance of showers late
Monday and Tuesday. Dry and warmer Thursday before the next system
provides another chance of showers and cooler temperatures Friday
into next Saturday.
.DISCUSSION...A very nice day is expected across southeast Arizona
today, with near normal temperatures and just some thin high cirrus
clouds. Current readings in the valley locations are in the 50s,
with highs topping out this afternoon in the mid to upper 70s at
most locations (near 80 across the far western deserts, from Sells
west to Ajo and Organ Pipe). Still a few breezes this afternoon, but
wind speeds will be down considerably from yesterday. Strongest
winds will be over portions of Cochise and Graham counties. Forecast
package on track. No updates this morning. Please refer to prev
discussion section below for more information on the latter periods
of the forecast.
AVIATION...Valid through 27/18Z.
SKC to FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL. SFC wind less than 12 kts thru
26/19Z. Aft 26/19Z, SFC wind WLY/NWLY at 8-16 kts, with the strongest
wind E/SE of KTUS. Wind diminishing to vrbl less than 12 kts aft
27/03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
.FIRE WEATHER...A series of weather systems will bring breezy to
conditions at times over the next 7 days. The strongest winds are
expected Monday and Tuesday afternoons and then on Friday. At this
time it looks like Friday afternoon will see the southern portions
of fire weather zones 151 and 152 near red flag conditions for a few
Otherwise, expect dry conditions through Monday night, followed by a
chance of showers mainly north and east of Tucson periodically from
Tuesday through next Saturday.
.PREV DISCUSSION...The area will be in between systems today before a
weather system enters the region late Monday into Tuesday. This
system will drop far enough south to bring some showers Monday night
through Tuesday , especially north and east of Tucson. Gusty winds
followed by cooler temperatures will also accompany this system.
Daytime temperatures will lower about 8 to 10 degrees on Tuesday
from those forecast for Monday. Thereafter, latest medium ranges
models showed a stronger low pressure system impacting the region
around Friday into next weekend with another shot of rain and cooler
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