Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 302130
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
230 PM MST Sun Apr 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure aloft will bring mostly clear skies, dry
conditions and a warming trend through the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Clear skies continue this afternoon for much of Arizona
as a rather large and mature low pressure system is spinning its way
across the Central Plains, bringing severe weather to parts of the
southeast. We`ll generally remain under northwest flow aloft into
Wednesday as strong ridging gradually builds in from the west. The
result will be mostly clear skies with a few passing cirrus, a
warming trend and a much-needed break in the winds. By late week,
the ridge axis passes overhead with heights and thicknesses
supporting the potential first 100 degree day of 2017 at KTUS on
Friday. Next weekend, we`ll watch as a deep trough tries to dive
southward along the coastline and cutoff to our west under the
synoptic ridge. This would signal with another round of gusty winds
along with a few showers depending on the track. With such low
confidence at this time, have kept PoPs fairly low with just slight
chance values across the eastern/northeastern mountains next
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 02/00Z.
SKC conditions or a FEW clouds AOA 20k ft AGL through the period.
SFC wind WLY/NWLY 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts and stronger
speeds possible near KSAD. SFC wind diminishing to less than 10 kts
this evening into Monday morning. Northwest winds at 8-12 kts resume
Monday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...No big fire weather concerns this week. Dry
conditions will prevail through Friday. Expect markedly less wind as
well through Wednesday, although afternoon gusts will occur due to
daytime heating. A somewhat tight surface pressure gradient Thursday
may produce elevated east to southeast winds. Daytime minimum
relative humidity will be in the single digits at lower elevations
and the teens in the mountains.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

&&

$$

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