Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 170303
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
800 PM MST WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
THEN BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. THEN THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS WILL PUSH EAST
ALLOWING FOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A
PACIFIC LOW EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ALL IN ALL CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
JUST A FEW TO SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS SE AZ. SURFACE
WIND WILL BE GENERALLY WLY AT 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS EAST
OF TUCSON EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS
THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 9 PM MST
THIS EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152...OR SPECIFICALLY EASTERN
COCHISE...SOUTHEAST GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTIES. THIS AREA
IS ESSENTIALLY EAST OF A SAFFORD TO DOUGLAS LINE. THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH LESS WIND WILL PREVAIL
THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE REGIME...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR...EXCEPT BREEZY TO PERHAPS WINDY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION/ISSUED AT 250 PM MST/...A SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA WAS PRODUCING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WIND BEING REPORTED IN COCHISE COUNTY.
THIS GUSTINESS IN COMBINATION WITH DRY CONDITIONS HAD RESULTED IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PART OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION IN THIS PRODUCT OF
MORE DETAILS.

MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING A SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND MOVING IT ACROSS ARIZONA
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
FOR FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES ELSEWHERE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH A DROP IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR MORE DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ENTERS THE WESTERN STATES. RIGHT NOW...JUST LOOKS LIKE MORE
WIND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    RED FLAG WARNING TIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ152.

&&

$$

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