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000
FXUS65 KVEF 240346 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
845 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...GUSTY
WINDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
&&

.UPDATE...EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A BLANKET OF THIN HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH THICKER MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. DID MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO THE CLOUD
GRIDS TO LOWER COVERAGE DUE TO THE FACT THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY THIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE MODELS SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH REGARDS TO THIS FRIDAYS SYSTEM.
WINDY...SHOWERY...AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 8 KTS STILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH 05Z BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST AROUND 7 KTS
OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 8-10 KTS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 20Z THURSDAYS. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET THROUGH
THURSDAY. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH LOWERING CLOUDS AND A RISK OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
BEATTY CORRIDOR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS IN THE MORNING AND
THE AROUND 10-15 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO AREAS
WEST AND NORTH OF LAS VEGAS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
325 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MAIN STORM IS STILL ON TRACK
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CONCERNS INCLUDE WINDS...RAIN AND
UNSEASONABLY LOW ELEVATION SNOW...AND TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL
REVERSE FROM NORTHERLY TODAY TO PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTERLY ON
THURSDAY...THEN INCREASE QUITE A BIT ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS
NEARS THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE OVER THE DESERTS...WITH THE STORM TRACK AND PRECIPITATION
DRAG BOTH WORKING AGAINST A SEVERE DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT IN THE
SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT COULD NOT JUSTIFY A HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS
TIME DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET IN ANY
SPECIFIC PLACE. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST ZONES FRIDAY
EVENING AND TREK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...SWITCHING THE
WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY AND MOST LIKELY ENDING THE HIGH WIND THREAT.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN THE SIERRA AND NEARBY MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN MOJAVE DESERT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN END
FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK MORE ROBUST THAN
WITH THE LAST STORM ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH IS SOMEWHAT DEEPER.
SNOW LEVELS WILL START TO FALL ON FRIDAY AND BOTTOM OUT FRIDAY NIGHT
AROUND 5000 FEET. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HARD TO
COME BY DUE TO THE WARMING GROUND TEMPERATURES...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BEING THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SEVERAL DEGREES
TOMORROW FROM THE UNSEASONABLY COOL READINGS OF TODAY...COME BACK
DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY...THEN BOTTOM OUT SATURDAY SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
HAVE MOVED EAST TO THE ROCKIES...WITH FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE OVER OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM DEPARTED TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND A RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF OF
CALIFORNIA, THE AREA WILL BE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW ENOUGH 700-500 MB LAYER MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY IN THE NORTHERN CWFA THEN. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
CLOSER TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, DRIER AIR WILL WORK ON IN
AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BECOME MORE DOMINANT. BY WEDNESDAY THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD CLOSER TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER TO BUILD IN THE RIDGE COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL
GFS OR GEM.

FOR TEMPS, EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY...WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON
MONDAY AND THEN AT LEAST 4-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY. GIVEN
THE DIFFERENCE IN THE RIDGE CENTER BY THEN AND ON WEDNESDAY, I WENT
WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND WARMER GFS FOR FORECAST
HIGHS. LOW TEMPS WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES ALL DAYS.

THE MAIN IMPACT DURING THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DROPPING DOWN TO OUR EAST. THIS
SHOULD INCREASE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH WINDS EASILY
APPROACHING LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE
LAUGHLIN-BULLHEAD CITY AREA PER THE LATEST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

GORELOW/MORGAN/STACHELSKI

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