589
FXUS65 KVEF 150549
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1049 PM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Temperatures will begin to lower to around normal by mid-week.

* Gusty southwest winds will lead to areas of critical fire weather
  concerns Tuesday afternoon across portions of central Nevada.

* Monsoonal moisture will return to the region during the second
  half of the week, bringing increased chances for afternoon showers
  and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday.

Temperatures will peak across the region today with afternoon highs
averaging 5 to 8 degrees above normal. Widespread Moderate (Level 2
of 4) to Major (Level 3 of 4) HeatRisk will be seen across the
southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert this afternoon. The Extreme
Heat Warning remains in effect for Death Valley National Park, Clark
County, and the Lake Mead National Recreation Area through this
evening, along with the Heat Advisory for the southern Great Basin.
A weak area of low pressure will drop into the Pacific Northwest
tonight and Tuesday which will help to suppress the high and begin
the trend of cooler temperatures across the region. Tuesday`s high
temperatures will trend downward 2-3 degrees, but then drop another
4-6 degrees on Wednesday, putting the entire forecast area into the
Minor to Moderate HeatRisk levels. Much of the region will continue
to experience hazy skies as smoke from area wildfires remains
trapped under the ridge of high pressure responsible for the heat.

By mid to late week a weak cut-off area of low pressure will develop
off Baja California, which will help to transport increased moisture
into the region by the second half of the week. There is still quite
a bit of uncertainty about how much moisture will make it into the
area. Still, isolated thunderstorms will be possible starting on
Wednesday across Mohave County, and then possibly moving into the
Las Vegas area Thursday and Friday. This increased moisture, along
with lower 500mb heights, will also allow temperatures to fall to
near or even slightly below normal levels by the weekend.
&&


.FIRE WEATHER...A short wave moving through the Great Basin will
bring gusty southwest winds to portions of the southern Great Basin
on Tuesday. This, along with afternoon relative humidity values of 7
to 14 percent, will result in critical fire weather conditions
across Nevada Fire Weather Zone 461 and 462. The Fire Weather Watch
has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for Zone 461 and Zone 462
has also been added to the warning. Gusty south winds are also
expected along the lower Colorado River Valley Tuesday afternoon
leading to some enhanced fire weather concerns, but at time winds
are expected to remain below Red Flag Criteria.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...South-
southwest winds will remain elevated overnight, with speeds between
7 and 9 kts. Southerly gusts between 20 and 25 kts will pick up late
this morning, veering southwesterly through the afternoon with gust
speeds peaking between 25 and 30 kts. Gusts will decrease in speed
and frequency after sunset, with sustained southwesterly winds
remaining elevated around 8 kts overnight. Afternoon smoke aloft
expected, with reduced slantwise visibility to the east in the Peach
Springs corridor. Temperatures will increase above 100 degrees
between 17Z and 06Z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 06z Forecast Package...Southerly
wind gusts will pick up at Las Vegas Valley, Colorado River Valley,
and Owens Valley TAF sites late this morning, with gust speeds
between 20 and 25 kts. Winds will veer south-southwesterly through
the afternoon, with gust speeds peaking between 25 and 30 kts. KDAG
will gust from the west early this afternoon through the evening,
with gusts eventually falling off between 05 and 06Z. Expect
continuous smoke aloft in Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley
TAF sites, with reduced slantwise visibility to the east in the
Peach Springs corridor.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...Gorelow/Planz
AVIATION...Soulat
FIRE WEATHER...Gorelow

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