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000
FXUS65 KVEF 071059
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
258 AM PST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY BUT
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DOWN THE RIVER. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH SATURDAY THEN RISE TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING SHORTWAVE WERE STILL INDICATED BY RADAR
ACROSS NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS MAY STICK AROUND UNTIL
A LITTLE AFTER 12Z BUT OTHERWISE A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES 5 OR SO DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPED BEHIND A COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE WARMING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH. LIGHTER
WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME NORTHERLY
BREEZES WILL LINGER DOWN THE RIVER FROM LAUGHLIN-BULLHEAD CITY TO
NEEDLES. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE RIDGE AXIS TILTS ALLOWING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTHER/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION WITH SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. AN ACTIVE JET STREAM TO OUR NORTH WILL
DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE
DESERT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BEST MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS STAY WELL TO THE NORTH...LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
JUST THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA AS WELL AS NYE/LINCOLN AND
ESMERALDA COUNTIES. BIGGER IMPACTS WILL BE RELATED TO WIND WHICH MAY
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA AND SPRING
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED BUT STILL NEAR MID-MARCH NORMALS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND
TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH BY TUESDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY ENHANCED ALONG
THE COLORADO RIVER. MIDWEEK AND BEYOND MODELS AGREE ON RETAINING
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS WITH RIDGING
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST...SANDWICHING OUR FORECAST AREA
UNDER A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
REBOUND BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MINIMAL SKY COVER THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTH
WINDS 12-16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS MAY TRY TO
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KTS BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z THEN
NORTH/NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAINLY NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS
SATURDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS VERY EARLY THIS MORNING NORTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTY...OTHERWISE MINIMAL SKY COVER THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY 10-15 KTS BUT LOCALLY
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NORTH WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER BY LATE THIS MORNING
WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THE RIVER ZONES WAS UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE LIGHTER SATURDAY OVERALL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH
WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY THE LAUGHLIN-BULLHEAD CITY AREA.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR NVZ466.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR NVZ021.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR AZZ101.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR AZZ002-036.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ229.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ527.
&&

$$

HARRISON/OUTLER

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