Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 291658

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
958 AM PDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Breezy conditions will continue along the Colorado
River Valley today. Otherwise pleasant weather is expected. A
vigorous wind storm is expected to impact the region Thursday,
lingering into Friday for many areas. Widespread gusts of 45 to 65
MPH can be expected with this system along with isolated
shower/thunderstorm activity to the north and east of Las Vegas.
Another storm may move across the region late Sunday into Monday.

.UPDATE...The latest model solutions support the going forecast for
a significant wind event Thursday into Thursday evening with no need
for immediate changes. The highest winds will likely accompany the
fast moving cold front which is forecast to sweep across the Las
Vegas Valley sometime between 4 PM and 7 PM Thursday. Details will
be fine tuned a little by early afternoon, but the forecast is on
track. -Adair

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday.

Wind is the main concern through the short term period.
Confidence has increased further in a significant wind event for
the region Thursday, with some areas seeing strong winds last
through Friday.

For today, the northerly winds down the Colorado River Valley will
persist into the afternoon before decreasing as shortwave ridging
traverses the region. A quiet night is expected tonight, and will
be the proverbial `calm before the storm`.

On Thursday, a vigorous low pressure system is expected to dig
southeast along the eastern Sierra front resulting in an intense
tightening of the pressure (and thermal) gradient. This is
expected to bring strong west to southwest winds across the Mojave
Desert ahead of the associated cold front and even stronger
north to northwest winds (and a few showers/thunderstorms) with
and behind the front as it pushes south across the region. The
latest guidance continues to indicate maximum wind gusts between
45 and 65 MPH across much of the region. As a result I`ve upgraded
the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning (expanding it to
include most of Mohave County). The only areas not covered are the
Colorado River Valley from Needles south where a Wind Advisory
has been issued. Significant blowing dust will be possible with
this system, blowing off dry lake beds across central Nevada and
southeast California. Winds will decrease across the southern half
of the forecast area Thursday night. To the north, gusts of 40 to
55 MPH will remain possible through Friday, with isolated
portions of Esmeralda and Nye counties potentially seeing gusts to
60 MPH. In these areas, wind products continue through Friday.

As the low pressure system slows and wraps up along the UT-AZ
border Friday, moisture and shower activity will remain possible
over eastern Lincoln and northern Mohave counties.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday.

The aforementioned strong upper low that moved through the area will
be centered over New Mexico Saturday, however we will continue to
feel it`s effects with gusty north winds over most locations. Most
areas will see gusts around 25 mph, but there could be some isolated
gusts approaching 30-35 mph down the Colorado River, especially
early in the day. As the upper low moves east Saturday afternoon
winds are expected to begin diminishing across the region. The area
will be briefly under high pressure Sunday ahead of another system
that will impact the area late Sunday night and Monday. The current
extended models are in fairly good agreement and show this low
moving across northern Nevada into Utah. With the more north track,
precipitation will mainly be limited to the far northern zones
Monday and have increased pops across those area. Winds are also
expected to increase Sunday night out of the southwest ahead of a
cold front that is forecast to move through the area early Monday
morning. At this time, winds do not look to be very strong ahead of
the front, but will become quite gusty post frontal. Areas such as
Esmeralda, central Nye, Lincoln, and northern Inyo Counties will see
northwest winds potentially over 40 mph, so wind advisories may be
necessary. Dry Northwest flow sets up Tuesday as the low tracks east.
Temperatures look to warm to above normal readings Saturday and
Sunday ahead of that next system, but cool significantly Monday and
Tuesday in the northwest flow.

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light and variable to light northwest
winds will continue through mid-morning before turning to the
northeast and decreasing in speed further. Light winds are
expected into Thursday morning before a powerful storm system
impacts the region mid-day Thursday into Friday. Gusty southwest
winds early Thursday afternoon will turn to the northwest with a
strong cold front on Thursday afternoon. Northwest gusts of 40-50
KTS will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Isolated north winds gusting 20-30 kts will linger
into this afternoon down the Colorado River Valley. Elsewhere
lighter winds favoring a north direction will decrease further
today. A powerful storm system is expected Thursday into Friday.
Gusty west to southwest winds along and south of the I-15 corridor
will develop by mid-day Thursday followed by a strong cold front
that will push south across the region mid-day Thursday into
Thursday evening. North to northwest gusts of 40-50 KTS will be
possible with this cold front. North winds will linger Friday into

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating


Short Term/Aviation...Wolcott
Long Term.............Gorelow

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