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000
FXUS65 KVEF 131748
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
948 AM PST FRI DEC 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM BRUSHING THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS TO THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS
TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM TO NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND...AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDINESS TO MAINLY THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING BY EARLY EVENING. NORTH
WINDS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY.
OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND DO NOT PLAN ANY
UPDATES THIS MORNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
230 AM PST FRI DEC 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS
STARTING TO WORK INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF A FEW CLOUDS THE MAIN IMPACTS
WILL BE SOME INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER ANY WINDS TODAY AND OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN BY SATURDAY AND MOVE
INTO NORTHERN NEVADA WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE SURFACE GRADIENTS TO
AREAS SUCH AS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. ITS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE
AREA RIDGING WILL START TO TAKE PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WILL TICK
UPWARD EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ON MONDAY MODELS AGREE THAT
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER OUR CWA...BUT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP NORTH WINDS GOING
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FOR ONE MORE DAY. THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST TUESDAY AND A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS
TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY
AS A DEEPER STORM STARTS TO DIG OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ON THURSDAY THIS STORM CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING SOME
SPREAD IN THE LOCATION AND DEPTH. THE DEEPER ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...WHILE THE SHALLOWER
GFS WOULD SUGGEST MOISTURE REMAINING MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA. LOOKING BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE BIGGER IMPACT WITH
THIS STORM COULD BE WIND. A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT LOOKS LIKELY IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...WITH THE GFS LOOKING
STRONGER ON THIS RUN. TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST...AND WHEN THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING...WILL NEED TO MAKE TEMPS DROP MORE SHARPLY WITH TIME AS THE
FRONT PASSES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TERMINAL
THIS MORNING ALONG WITH WINDS REMAINING UNDER 8 KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 14K FEET ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
AROUND 20Z...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET LEAVING CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 12-14K FEET DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTIES. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL BRING SOME NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE OWENS VALLEY TODAY
WITH SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL THEN AFFECT
MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20 KTS AT TIMES.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JENSEN
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM.............MORGAN

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