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FXXX12 KWNP 301231

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Nov 30 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low.  The largest flare of the period was a
B8/1f at 30/0850 UTC from Region 2458 (N08W30, Cao/beta).  Slight growth
was observed in the intermediate and trailing spots of Region 2458.  The
rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay.

A large prominence eruption was observed on the SW limb beginning at
30/0155 UTC in SDO/AIA 304 imagery.  An associated coronal mass ejection
(CME) was observed off the SW limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 30/0324
UTC.  Given its location and trajectory, the CME is unlikely to have a
geoeffective component, however analysis is in progress to determine

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for
C-class flares over the next three days (30 Nov-02 Dec).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels while the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout
the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on day one (30 Nov) with moderate to high levels on days
two and three (01-02 Dec) due to coronal hole high speed stream activity
(CH HSS).  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at
background levels for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated an earlier than expected arrival of a
co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed by the onset of a CH HSS.
For the majority of the period total field strength was between 1 nT and
11 nT with the Bz component mostly negative near -5 nT after 29/1749
UTC.  By 30/0612 UTC, total field began to increase to a maximum of 15
nT with a maximum southward Bz component around -13 nT.  By the end of
the period, total field had decreased to around 8 nT.  Solar wind speeds
increased around 30/0810 UTC to near 520 km/s.  Phi angle was variable
throughout the period until 30/0630 UTC when it settled into a mostly
positive (away) sector.

Solar wind conditions are expected to continue to be elevated through
day two (01 Dec) as CH HSS conditions persist with solar wind speeds
likely in the 550-650 km/s range.  By day three (02 Dec), solar wind
conditions are expected to decrease towards background levels as CH HSS
effects diminish.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels over the
period due to the onset of CIR and subsequent CH HSS activity.  An
isolated G1 (minor) storm period was observed during the 30/0600-0900
UTC period as the CIR began influencing the geomagnetic field.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active periods
for the rest of day one (30 Nov) with unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming
on day two (01 Dec) due to continued CH HSS activity.  Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on day three (02 Dec) as coronal hole
influence subsides. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.