Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
000
FXXX12 KWNP 220032
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 May 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. A C1/Sf flare occurred at 21/0706
UTC from Region 2349 (S21W10, Bxo/beta). The remaining spotted regions
were stable or decayed further. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) were detected on NASA SOHO LASCO coronagraph imagery during the
period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
activity over the next three days (22-24 May).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at ambient background
levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
levels for day one (22 May). Days two and three (23-24 May) are expected
to see a return to high levels in delayed response to the recent waning
coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS). The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to remain below S1 (Minor) threshold for the
forecast period (22-24 May).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at the ACE satellite suggested the continued
waning of a positive polarity (CH HSS). Bt remained steady between 6-7
nT. Bz fluctuated between positive and negative over the period, with
maximum deflections to -4 nT. Solar wind velocity displayed a steady
average decrease from near 440 km/s to 380 km/s. Phi remained positive.


.Forecast...
Solar wind velocity is expected to be at nominal background conditions
for days one through three (22-24 May) as the CH HSS rotates completely
away from the near Earth environment.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reflect continued quiet conditions
through the forecast period (22-24 May) as CH HSS effects have
dissipated and the return of a quiet ambient state of the space weather
environment.


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.