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FXXX12 KWNP 290035

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Jul 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2390 (S15W26,
Dai/beta-gamma) changed little and retained magnetic mixing within the
leader spots. Despite the slightly more magnetic complexity, the region
was mostly inactive as it produced only a weak, B-class flare early in
the period. Region 2389 (S12E09, Bxo/beta) dissipated further and was
inactive. Region 2391 (N07E56, Hsx/alpha) remained stable.

A 5 degree long, linear filament centered at approximately S39E22
disappeared from the Sun as observed in SDO/AIA and GONG/H-alpha
imagery. Analysis indicated the filament had a strong southward vector.
No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed in
available coronagraph imagery during the period.

Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a chance for C-class
activity for the next three days (29-31 Jul) primarily due to the flare
potential of Region 2390.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
with a peak flux of 424 pfu observed at 28/1705 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (29-31 Jul)
while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at
background levels (below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...

Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters were
somewhat disturbed in the first half of the period, but became more
settled later. Solar wind velocity increased from approximately 425 km/s
to a peak of about 480-520 km/s between 28/0400-0800 UTC and decreased
gradually afterwards, ending the period near speeds of 400-420 km/s. IMF
total field strength ranged from 3-6 nT and the Bz component deflected
mostly southward for an extended period between 28/0550-1155 UTC. The
phi angle was predominantly positive (away), but showed some
oscillations between sectors during the first half of the period.

Solar wind is expected to remain slightly enhanced early on day one (29
Jul) due to continuing effects from a positive polarity coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS). A decreased solar wind velocity is expected
for days two and three (30-31 Jul) as the CH HSS effects wane.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, mainly due to
elevated solar wind velocities and the extended period of southward
Bz possibly associated with the positive polarity CH HSS.

Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for most of day one
(29 Jul), although a brief period of active conditions is possible early
in the day due to lingering effects from the positive polarity CH HSS.
Days two and three (30-31 Jul) are expected to see quiet to unsettled
conditions due to waning effects from the CH HSS and the slightly
disturbed IMF environment as Earth transitions out of the CH HSS. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.