Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 190032
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2018 Jan 19 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low.  Region 2696 (S12W15, Bxo/beta) continued
to decay over the period, but managed to produce a few B-class flares.
The largest was a B9/Sf at 18/0735 UTC.  No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available satellite imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels throughout the
forecast period (19-21 Jan).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on day one (19 Jan), and normal levels on days two and
three (20-21 Jan) due to CH HSS influences.  The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the
forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels today.  Solar wind speed
averaged near 325 km/s.  Total field ranged from 1-5 nT while the Bz
component was between +4/-2 nT.  Phi angle was oriented in a positive
solar sector until 18/1700 UTC when it rotated into a negative
orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be near nominal levels for day one
(19 Jan). An enhancement from the onset of a CIR and subsequent CH HSS
is expected on day two (20 Jan) and persist through day three (21 Jan).
Solar wind speeds are expected to be near 550-575 km/s, as observed in
STEREO A PLASTIC data.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one
(19 Jan). Day two (20 Jan) is expected to see mostly quiet to unsettled
conditions with isolated periods of active levels due to the onset of a
CIR ahead of a CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to
dominate on day three (21 Jan) with a chance for isolated active levels
due to persisting CH HSS influences.


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