Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 231231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Oct 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2685 (S09E49, Hax/alpha)
and newly numbered Region 2686 (N12E72, Hax/alpha) produced no notable
activity during the reporting period. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for
C-class flares over the next three days (23-25 Oct).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate moderate levels and
the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
remain at background levels for the next three days (23-25 Oct).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested
mostly nominal conditions. Total magnetic field strength varied between
2-7 nT. No significant periods of sustained southward Bz were observed.
Solar wind speeds were between 370-440 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly
oriented in the negative sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels on day
one (23 Oct) through midday on day two (24 Oct). From midday on 24 Oct
through day three (25 Oct), enhancements from the onset of a recurrent,
positive polarity CH HSS are expected.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet levels are expected through midday on day two (23-24 Oct).
Mid to late on day two, a SSBC to the negative sector followed by a CIR
in advance of a CH HSS will likely increase the geomagnetic active to G1
(Minor) storm levels. A further increase to G2 (Moderate) levels is
likely on day three (25 Oct) as elevated wind speeds combine with
periods of sustained southward Bz.



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