Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 030031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Dec 03 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low and only background flare activity was
observed.  Regions 2612 (N09W49, Dao/beta) and 2615 (S07E08, Dao/beta)
were stable throughout the period while the remaining regions were in
decay.  No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a chance
for C-class flare activity and a slight chance for M-class flare
activity, over the next three days (03-05 Dec).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period
with a peak flux of 9,970 pfu observed at 02/1515 UTC.  The greater than
10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the
period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to persist at high
levels over the next three days (03-05 Dec) and the greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the
forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speeds were slightly enhanced early this period due to the
passage of a transient structure of unknown origin late yesterday.
Total field strength values slowly decreased from initial values around
6 nT to 3 nT throughout the period and the Bz component was only
slightly southward.  Solar wind speeds decreased from near 410 km/s
early in the period to end-of-period values around 320 km/s and the phi
angle was steady in a positive solar sector orientation.  Solar wind
speed in excess of 500 km/s that was observed early in the period
appears to be bad data points as compared with ACE/Mag & SWEPAM data as
well as SOHO/CELIAS solar wind data.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at background levels on
day one (03 Dec) with a minor solar wind enhancement expected on days
two and three (04-05 Dec) due to the anticipated onset of a positive
polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet this period under a nominal solar wind
regime.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (03 Dec) and
quiet to unsettled on days two and three (04-05 Dec) due to the weak
influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.


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