Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 230031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Jul 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 2567 (N06W66, Dko/beta) was
responsible for multiple C-class flares over the period.  The largest
was a C6/Sf at 22/0651 UTC.  Slight decay was observed in the northern
area of the leader spots for both Regions 2565 (N04W75, Hkx/alpha) and
2567.

A CME from the W limb was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery, first seen
at 22/0248 UTC.  Analysis indicated the event source was probably at or
just beyond the W limb.  WSA-Enlil modelling of the event showed a clear
miss to the west of the Sun-Earth line.

An approximately 20 degree long filament centered near N22E58
disappeared from the disk between 22/0748-0944 UTC.  A faint, narrow CME
was observed off the NE limb likely associated with this event beginning
at 22/1136 UTC in C2 imagery.  This event is not expected to be
geoeffective.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a chance for M-class
flares on days one and two (23-24 Jul).  M-class probabilities decrease
to a slight chance on day three (25 Jul) as Regions 2565 and 2567 rotate
around the west limb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at
background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the next three days (23-25 Jul).  There is a slight
chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm for the next three days due
to potential flare activity from Region 2567.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced through the period with
solar wind speeds ranging from 362 km/s to near 511 km/s.  Total field
ranged from 3 nT to 9 nT while the Bz component was mostly southward
between +7 nT and -8 nT.  Phi angle switched from a mostly negative
(towards) sector to a positive (away) one around 22/1500 UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly enhanced on days one
and two (23-24 Jul) and returning to nominal conditions by day three (25
Jul).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet with isolated
unsettled periods possible for the next three days (23-25 Jul).



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