Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 231230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Aug 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2671 (N10W37, Fsi/beta-gamma)
produced numerous B-class flares and three C1 flares. The other numbered
region on the disk, Region 2672 (N08E41, Dao/beta), was stable and
produced a couple of B-class flares. There were no Earth-directed CMEs
observed in available coronagraph imagery during the reporting period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance of
M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate radio blackouts), for the next
three days (23-25 Aug).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 4,760 pfu observed at 22/1625 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected remain at high levels
the next three days (23-25 Aug), while the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were enhanced throughout the period. Total field
was between 3 and 8 nT. The Bz component was mostly negative and
multiple sustained southward deviations were observed. Solar wind
speeds showed a decreasing trend from early values near 600 km/s to end
of period speeds near 490 km/s. The phi angle was mostly negative, with
periods of a neutral orientation.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced into day one
(23 Aug). Day two (24 Aug) is likely to see periodic enhancements in
solar wind parameters before settling to near background levels by day
three (25 Aug).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to periods of
sustained southward Bz.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on
day one (23 Aug). Day two (24 Aug) is expected to be at mostly quiet to
unsettled levels as the solar wind environment transitions back to quiet
levels by day three (25 Aug).



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