Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 060030
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Jul 06 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels.  Only B-class flares were observed
this period but the X-ray flux background briefly increased into the
C-level late in the period.  Regions 2379 (S15E21, Dro/beta) and 2381
(N15E44, Dao/beta) exhibited increased penumbral growth and areal
extent, but remained largely unproductive.  Region 2377 (S10W79,
Axx/alpha) produced a B9 flare at 05/1320 UTC which resulted in a
coronal mass ejection (CME).  The CME was first observed in SOHO/LASCO
C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 05/1400 UTC but was not
Earth-directed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity over the next three days (06-08
Jul).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the
period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on day one (06 Jul) and at moderate to high levels on
days two and three (07-08 Jul).  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period
(06-08 Jul).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of weakening coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS) effects.  Solar wind velocity increased slightly
from initial values near 450 km/s to end-of-period values near 500 km/s.
IMF total field values slowly decreased from 15 nT to 5 nT throughout
the period and Bz reached a maximum southward component of -14 nT early
in the period.  The phi angle was steady in a negative (toward the Sun)
solar sector orientation but became variable after 05/1900 UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to begin a return to background
levels on day one (06 Jul) as CH HSS influence continues to subside.  A
return to an ambient solar wind environment is expected for days two and
three (07-08 Jul).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels
between 05/0000-0300 UTC and G1 (Minor) storm levels between
05/0300-0600 UTC due to continued CH HSS effects.  CH HSS influence
weakened slightly after 05/0600 UTC and geomagnetic field activity
decreased to quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of the period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active levels early on day
one (06 Jul) followed by quiet to unsettled levels for the rest of the
day as CH HSS effects weaken.  Quiet geomagnetic field activity is
expected on days two and three (07-08 Jul) as CH HSS influence subsides.


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