Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 241230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Oct 24 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels this period.  Region 2192
(S12W14, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an impulsive M4-flare at 24/0748
UTC as well as multiple mid-level C-class flares throughout the period.
Region 2192 persists as the largest and most productive region on the
visible disk although a minor decay trend was observed as separation
between the leader and follower spot areas increased slightly this
period.  New Regions 2196 (S04E72, Axx/alpha) and 2197 (S12E69,
Axx/alpha) were numbered this period but were otherwise unremarkable.
The other regions on the visible disk were either stable or in decay.

.Forecast...
M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) flare activity is expected with a
chance for X-class (R3 or greater) over the next three days (24-26 Oct)
with Region 2192 being the likely source or further activity.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels,
reaching a peak value of 6,900 pfu at 23/1340 UTC.  The greater than 10
MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels for the next three days (24-26 Oct).  There is a chance for
a greater than 10 MeV proton event at or above the S1 (Minor) solar
radiation storm level over the next three days (24-26 Oct) as Region
2192 rotates into an increasingly threatening position on the solar
disk.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a nominal solar wind regime.
Solar wind speeds were relatively steady between 400-500 km/s.  IMF
total field values ranged between 2-7 nT and Bz was predominately
southward throughout the period, reaching a maximum southward component
of -5 nT mid-period.  The phi angle was stable in a positive (away)
sector throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to become slightly enhanced (450-550
km/s) on day one (24 Oct) due to the onset of a positive polarity
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).  CH HSS influence is expected
to weaken by day two (25 Oct) and mostly subside by day three (26 Oct).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to extended
periods of southward Bz.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day
one (24 Oct) due to the onset of a CH HSS.  Quiet to unsettled levels
are expected on days two and three (25-26 Oct) as CH HSS influence
wanes.



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