Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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FXXX12 KWNP 250031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Oct 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low with no flares observed. Region 2603
(N13W37, Cro/beta) underwent some minor dissipation and re-growth
periods, but was little changed overall and the magnetic gradient
remained weak with minor shear near region center. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a slight
chance for C-class flares all three days (25-27 Oct).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels on days one and two (25-26 Oct) and increase to
moderate to high levels on day three (27 Oct) due to electron
redistribution associated with CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were disturbed and indicative of the waning
influences of a weak isolated positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed
decreased from near 450 km/s to speeds of 375-400 km/s. Total IMF
strength varied between 5 to 10 nT, and the Bz component was
predominantly southward. The phi angle was primarily positive (away from
the Sun).

The solar wind environment is expected to become disturbed and enhanced
on day one (25 Oct) due to influences of a CIR, followed by onset of a
recurrent, polar connected, positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds
are anticipated to increase and reach speeds of around 700 km/s as the
CH HSS becomes geoeffective. The solar wind regime is expected to remain
under the influence of this CH HSS all three days (25-27 Oct).


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active under the influence of the
disturbed solar wind environment.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be active, with isolated periods of
G1 (Minor) and G2 (Moderate) storming likely on days one and two (25-26
Oct) due to anticipated overall planetary response to the elevated solar
wind speeds and disturbed IMF. Overall geomagnetic response is expected
to decline to unsettled to active levels, with an isolated period of G1
storming likely on day three (27 Oct) under the continuing influence of
the CH HSS. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.