Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-062015-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
202 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

...NEAR NORMAL SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...

HISTORICALLY...THE RIVER FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN EARLY TO MID
JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOOD EVENTS INCREASING THROUGH
LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN EARLY TO MID MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL.

RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS HAS GENERALLY BEEN BELOW
NORMAL. STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE
PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WETTER THAN NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MARCH. THEREFORE...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE NUMBER OF RIVER
FLOODS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THOSE RIVER FLOODS TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
THROUGH APRIL. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LONG TERM ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW
FORECASTS. THESE ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
WATER.WEATHER.GOV WEB SITE UNDER THE EXPERIMENTAL LONG RANGE RIVER
FLOOD RISK TAB.

PAST PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...HAS
GENERALLY BEEN BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE
USGS ARE RUNNING BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...THE LATEST 8 TO 14 DAY AND ONE MONTH OUTLOOKS
ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION THROUGH MARCH. SEE THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER WEB SITE FOR MORE DETAILS:

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

YOU CAN ALSO FIND ADDITIONAL AND CURRENT WEATHER INFORMATION AND
FORECASTS ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL WEB PAGE AT:

 WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MOB(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOR DETAILED WEB INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS...GO
TO:

 HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=MOB (ALL LOWERCASE)

 FOR PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS...GO TO:

         WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC/QPFVSMAP.SHTML
                   (ALL LOWERCASE)

$$



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