Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 251927
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VALID 271200Z - 021200Z

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL EMERGE ACROSS THE U.S. DURING THE
DAY 3-8 PERIOD WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST.
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BENEATH THE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS...WHILE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BENEATH THE RIDGE. THE MAIN
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AS MODEST MIDLEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD BENEATH THE
RIDGE. ISOLATED COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL ORE INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AS A WEAK IMPULSE TRACKS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
BUILDING RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC TROUGH/THERMAL RIDGE ON
SUNDAY/DAY 3. THE DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY INCREASE INTO MID/LATE
NEXT WEEK ACROSS PARTS OF THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND PARTS
OF THE GREAT BASIN AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE MIGRATES THROUGH THE CREST OF THE RIDGE.
HOWEVER...TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE AND LACK
OF ANY STRONGER FORCING MECHANISMS LEAD TO LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME WHERE A MORE FOCUSED THREAT COULD DEVELOP. AS
SUCH...PROBABILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME BUT
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..LEITMAN.. 07/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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