Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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844
FNUS28 KWNS 021941
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

VALID 041200Z - 101200Z

A SLOW-MOVING...MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL ADVANCE EWD/ENEWD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WRN CONUS LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PERIPHERAL ZONES OF ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERLIE AN
ANTECEDENT DRY BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SWRN QUARTER OF
THE CONUS TO ENHANCE THE FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL. CONSENSUS AMONGST
MEDIUM-RANGE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUFFICIENT FOR
DAILY PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS FROM D3/WED THROUGH D8/MON.
CRITICAL AREAS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL/SERN AZ
ON D4/THU...ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SWRN/S-CNTRL NM AND FAR SERN AZ ON
D5/FRI...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SERN NM ON D6/SAT AND D7/SUN. THESE
CRITICAL AREAS INDICATE THE DAYS AND LOCATIONS FOR WHICH MODEL
GUIDANCE OFFERS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS OCCURRING AMIDST DRY FUELS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE AREAS
MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS AS ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE BECOMES
AVAILABLE. RELATIVELY LESS-FAVORABLE FUELS FOR FIRE SPREAD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF W TX AND NRN AZ/NM PRECLUDE HIGHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES
IN THESE AREAS...DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS TO OCCUR.

..COHEN.. 05/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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