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FNUS28 KWNS 172138

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Valid 191200Z - 251200Z

Latest ensemble guidance is beginning to come into better agreement
with regard to the evolution of mid/upper-level features this
weekend into next week.

Over the weekend, flow remains largely zonal across the northwest
CONUS, with subtle impulses and associated fronts passing through in
westerly flow. Once such impulse will impact portions of eastern MT
into the western Dakotas on Day 3/Saturday. While return flow is
anticipated early Saturday in the wake of frontal passage on Day
2/Friday, limited temporal extent of southeasterly flow will hinder
RH recovery prior to the frontal passage later Saturday.
Probabilities have been introduced on Day 3/Saturday across eastern
MT and the western Dakotas to account for gusty westerly
post-frontal winds and low RH values in conjunction with dry fuels.
While some dry thunder potential may develop across portions of the
Great Basin (mainly NV), weak steering flow coupled with marginally
receptive fuels precludes the introduction of 10% dry thunder
probabilities at this time.

Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to build across much of the
Intermountain West early next week as a closed cyclone continues to
modestly deepen near southern CA. This will allow periodic moisture
surges to be advected northward and overlap with dry fuels from the
Great Basin to the Canadian border. While the potential for dry
thunder is expected to increase next week, low predictability of the
spatiotemporal extent of the threat on any given day precludes the
introduction of probabilities at this time.

..Elliott/Jirak.. 08/17/2017

...Please see for graphic product...

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