Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 241634

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Valid 241700Z - 251200Z


Small expansions have been made to the critical area across eastern
AZ and northern NM, where consensus of short-term model guidance
suggests sustained winds of 20-30 mph will combine with RH values
below 15% and dry fuels. The eastern extent of the critical area
across the southern High Plains is constrained by less receptive
fuels into the TX/OK Panhandles and west TX, although an elevated
fire weather delineation continues across these areas. The elevated
area has also been extended northward into south-central and
southeastern CO, where sustained winds of 15-25 mph will combine
with RH values of generally 14-20% and dry fine fuels. Locally
critical conditions may occur in the San Luis Valley of CO. For
additional details, see the previous discussion below.

An elevated area has been introduced across parts of the northern MS
Valley and Upper Midwest. A strengthening surface pressure gradient
and strong low-level jet across this region will support sustained
southerly winds of 15-30 mph through this evening, with higher gusts
possible. 12Z soundings and recent surface observations shows a dry
low-level airmass remains over this region from a prior frontal
passage. Even with high cloudiness limiting surface heating
somewhat, RH values will likely fall into the 20-30% range this
afternoon with diurnal mixing of the boundary layer. Although fuel
moisture is generally marginal to support large fire starts across
this region, the expected combination of strong winds with lowered
RH values supports an elevated designation.

..Gleason.. 04/24/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017/

As an upper trough amplifies across the Four Corners region into the
southern Rockies, strong low/midlevel flow will spread from AZ
eastward into portions of NM and the southern High Plains in
conjunction with deepening low pressure in the lee of the Rockies. A
critical fire weather threat will result across portions of AZ, NM,
and west TX.

...Portions of AZ/NM and the adjacent Four Corners Region into West
Very warm and dry conditions are expected across AZ/NM, the adjacent
Four Corners region, and west TX this afternoon, with max
temperatures in the 70s-80s F expected at higher elevations and 90+
F expected at lower elevations. Minimum RH values of 5-15% in
conjunction with sustained westerly winds of 20-30 MPH will result
in critical fire weather conditions across eastern AZ, much of NM
and far west TX. Elevated conditions will extend into the Four
Corners region and also into a larger portion of the OK/TX
panhandles and west TX.

...Portions of the Upper Midwest/Upper Mississippi Valley...
A strong low-level jet is expected to support strong and gusty
surface winds across portions of the Upper Midwest and Mississippi
Valley regions. High cloudiness may limit the amount of heating that
occurs in this area, but with a very dry residual airmass in place,
a modest amount of warming will result in elevated fire weather
conditions where dry fuels are available. An elevated delineation
may be required in the Day 1 update depending on short-term
observational trends.

...Please see for graphic product...

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