Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 251651

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Valid 251700Z - 261200Z


No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.

Morning observations and numerical guidance continues to support
elevated-to-critical fire-weather conditions across much of the
Southwest through the evening. Elsewhere, gusty low-level winds will
develop across the northern Plains in response to a deepening low
across Canada. These gusty winds may briefly overlap pockets of
relative humidity in the 25-35% range, yielding elevated
fire-weather conditions. However, the brief, isolated nature of the
threat will preclude categorical delineation.

..Marsh.. 05/25/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017/

Upper trough currently moving across the eastern CONUS will become
negatively-titled as a shortwave trough moves through its base and
off the mid-Atlantic coast. Overall maturing of this upper cyclone
will result in a vertically stacked low centered over New England by
12Z Friday. Farther west, upper ridging will move from the Plains
into the MS Valley and an upper low will move eastward across the
Canadian Prairie provinces. Surface low associated with the upper
low will take a similar path with an attendant cold front moving
across the northern and central Plains. Westerly flow aloft from the
Great Basin into the southern High Plains will foster a deepening
lee trough across the central and southern High Plains, with
cyclogenesis expected across eastern CO this afternoon.

Tightened surface pressure gradient coupled with enhanced flow aloft
and deep boundary-layer mixing is expected to support sustained
westerly winds from 25 to 35 mph across much of the Southwest this
afternoon. Gusts over 45 mph are possible. Antecedent dry airmass is
also in place across the region. Aforementioned deep boundary-layer
mixing (up to 500 mb in some locations) amidst this dry airmass will
result in afternoon RH values in the single-digits across the
majority of the region (despite near-average high temperatures). The
warmest conditions are expected across portions of the Permian Basin
and TX South Plains where highs over 100 are likely. These windy and
dry conditions are supportive of a critical fire weather threat in
areas where fuels are dry.

...Please see for graphic product...

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