Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 031732
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT WED JUN 03 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

....SOUTHWEST...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM NRN AZ SEWD INTO SE/S-CNTRL
NM. FARTHER E /ACROSS ERN NM AND THE NW TX AND OK PANHANDLES/...SWLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH IN RESPONSE TO
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO
AROUND OR JUST BELOW 15 PERCENT. WHILE THESE METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT...OVERALL FIRE THREAT WILL BE TEMPERED BY LARGELY UNRECEPTIVE
FUELS RESULTING FROM WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST
30 DAYS.

..MOSIER.. 06/03/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0258 AM CDT WED JUN 03 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL FORM OVER THE CA COAST AND DRIFT S/SE.
FARTHER EAST...RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS
STATES...WHILE A SERN U.S. LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER EWD AND SLOWLY
OPENS. THE RESULTANT SFC RESPONSE WILL FEATURE RIDGING OVER THE NRN
PLAINS/MIDWEST...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND A
WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NE. FARTHER WEST...LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE CO VALLEY AND VICINITY.

...PORTIONS OF THE SWRN STATES...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW DROPS S/SE AND THE LARGER-SCALE
TROUGH FURTHER AMPLIFIES...A BELT OF ENHANCED S/SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE SWRN CONUS. WHILE A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...SWLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT PAC MOISTURE OVER AZ THROUGH
THE DAY. AS SUCH...RH VALUES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW AS PREVIOUS
DAYS ACROSS THE APPROXIMATE SRN HALF OF AZ. HOWEVER...NRN AZ AND
POINTS S/E SHOULD STILL REALIZE MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH
THE ONSET OF DIURNAL MIXING. WHILE INSOLATION/VERTICAL MOMENTUM
TRANSFER MAY BE TEMPERED SOME BY MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER...WINDS
SHOULD STILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15-25 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
WITH FUELS REMAINING RELATIVELY RECEPTIVE AS WELL...AN ELEVATED
FIRE-WX THREAT IS LIKELY TO EXIST ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
AZ...EXTENDING SEWD INTO NM...AND A DELINEATION IS INTRODUCED WITH
THIS FORECAST.

WHILE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG WINDS/LOW RH VALUES FARTHER NE
ACROSS THE ERN NM PLAINS AND FAR NWRN TX/WRN OK
PANHANDLES...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING FUELS AND
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS. AT PRESENT...ERC VALUES SUGGEST
WIDESPREAD FUELS REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST BUT ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
DRYING. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD IN TERMS OF
THE ORIENTATION OF FLOW ALOFT AND RESULTANT STRENGTH OF LEE
CYCLOGENESIS/ENHANCED WINDS/LOWER RH VALUES. THE UNCERTAINTY IS
SUMMARIZED WELL BY THE RELATIVELY LOWER MEAN FOSBERG VALUES DEPICTED
BY THE SREF OVER THIS AREA. WITH SEVERAL AMBIGUITIES REGARDING THE
FORECAST FIRE-WX THREAT...THE ELEVATED DELINEATION IS NOT EXPANDED
FARTHER NE. HOWEVER...IF UPDATED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND DRY FUELS...THE ELEVATED AREA MAY
BE EXPANDED NEWD.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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