Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS22 KWNS 232002
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...

...Southern California...
The Elevated area was expanded a bit farther northeast to include
portions of the Kern County mountains. Otherwise, the forecast of
Elevated/Critical fire weather conditions persisting into Day
3/Wednesday remains on track, with no other changes needed. See
previous discussion below for more information.

...Lower Colorado River Valley...
A Critical area has been introduced across northern portions of the
inherited Day 2/Tuesday Elevated area, as confidence has increased
in sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph occurring in conjunction
with RH values less than 10%. Otherwise, only minor changes were
made to the inherited Elevated area. See previous discussion below
for more information.

...Central Great Plains and vicinity...
No changes have been made to the Elevated fire weather area. While
some expansion and/or refinements may become necessary in future
updates, uncertainty regarding warming/drying of low-level air mass
and receptiveness of fuels precludes any changes at this time. See
previous discussion below for more information.

...Portions of southeast Texas and southern Louisiana...
Heating of a dry low-level air mass will allow for minimum RH values
of around 25-30% to briefly overlap with sustained surface winds of
around 10-20 mph during the afternoon. However, very marginal fuel
receptiveness to large fire spread -- owing to widespread rainfall
in recent days -- should temper any fire weather threat.

..Elliott.. 10/23/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/

...Synopsis...
The overall surface synoptic pattern will change relatively little
from D1/Monday, with expansive high pressure remaining anchored
across much of the West, a slow-moving and deeply occluded low over
the Great Lakes, and a weak surface trough along the California
coast.  Fire weather concerns will remain high across portions of
southern California, the Lower Colorado River Valley, and central
Plains.

...Coastal Ranges of southern California...
Northeasterly surface flow will continue to remain strong across the
region, ranging from 15-25 mph along with higher gusts in
terrain-favored areas.  Overnight recovery will remain poor, and
latest model guidance suggests that near-critical (i.e., 15%) RH
values will exist in the morning before falling into the single
digits in several areas during peak-heating hours.  The combination
of very warm afternoon temperatures, gusty winds, low RH, and dry
fuels all support elevated to critical fire weather areal
delineations as the risk of rapid fire spread will remain high.

...Lower Colorado River Valley...
Strong high pressure across the Great Basin will continue to favor
gusty northerly flow across the region, with areas of 15-25 mph flow
especially in the elevated fire weather delineation.  RH values will
also remain low (7-12%) as temperatures rise in 80s and low 90s.
Where fuels are dry, elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions will exist during the afternoon and evening hours.

...Central Great Plains and vicinity...
A strong surface pressure gradient across the region will favor
development of 20-25 mph surface flow (with a few higher gusts)
through the early evening in a broad area of the central Plains.
Insolation/surface heating will result in temperatures rising into
the 50s to near 60 F.  RH values will remain mostly above critical
thresholds (20-25%) during peak heating hours.  Although elevated
atmospheric fire weather conditions will exist in many areas of the
Plains, the elevated delineation was confined to areas of western
Nebraska, western Kansas, and eastern Colorado where fuels were
driest and could support fire growth/spread.  Farther south into
western Oklahoma and western Texas, locally elevated fire weather
conditions will exist where fuels are dry.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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