Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS22 KWNS 010842
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY TOWARD THE ROCKIES WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.  AT THE
SURFACE...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...ALTHOUGH SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION IN THE ABSENCE
OF STRONG LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
THE GREATEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.

...PORTIONS OF NERN CA...NWRN NV...SERN ORE...CNTRL ID...SWRN MT...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA /PER WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/ IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE INLAND AND MERGE
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WITH A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED MIDLEVEL
IMPULSE ON SUNDAY.  EVEN THOUGH MODELS /INCLUDING
CONVECTION-ALLOWING HIRESW RUNS/ ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE.  LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE THAT ARE ABLE TO
RECEIVE FULL INSOLATION ON SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS.  THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION WILL
HAVE DEEP/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION
AND ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.  HIGHER COVERAGE OF DRY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME PORTION OF THIS
REGION...HOWEVER...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO
HIGHLIGHT A SCATTERED AREA.

..JIRAK.. 08/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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