Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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193
FNUS22 KWNS 211906
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

The ongoing forecast is on track with no changes needed.  Elevated
to locally critical fire weather conditions remain likely across
portions of Oklahoma, the Texas Panhandle, and into western north
Texas.  The greatest likelihood of critical thresholds being briefly
exceeded will occur across the eastern Texas Panhandle and vicinity
where RH values will fall to near 15% and surface winds will
approach 20 mph at times.

See the previous discussion below for more details.

..Cook.. 01/21/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018/

...Synopsis...
...Portions of the Southern Plains...

The strong upper low and attendant trough centered over the Plains
Monday morning will quickly eject northeast toward the Great Lakes
by the end of the period. Strong deep-layer west/northwesterly flow
on the back side of this system will persist over the central and
southern Plains in conjunction with a still-tight surface pressure
gradient. While the surface pressure gradient will weaken through
the day, breezy winds are still expected given strength of
deep-layer flow and deep boundary-layer mixing. Temperatures will be
cooler, with highs generally in the 50s, but regional forecast
soundings show mixing to around 4 kft. With PW values near 0.15 in,
RH values will once again fall into the 12-20 percent range.
West/northwest winds around 15-20 mph with higher gusts are
anticipated, and some spotty critical conditions are possible. Winds
will decrease during the evening and overnight hours as the surface
pressure gradient relaxes and the upper-level system shifts well
northeast. RH values also will rebound into the 40-60 percent range.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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