Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 151640
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1039 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2017

                 VALID JANUARY 15 THROUGH JANUARY 20

...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS WGRFC AREA, POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The WGRFC continues to experience the effects of a very active
weather pattern with noticeable impacts into early next week.

Over the past 24 hours, the heaviest precipitation was reported in
the higher elevations of Colorado, New Mexico and in the Amarillo,
TX area. The focus of the precipitation, oriented north to south,
will shift eastward as the upper low slowly moves across Texas today
and tomorrow, as it lifts northeastward. The system is expected to
produce bands of heavy precipitation as it becomes more organized
later this afternoon and overnight into tomorrow.

The heaviest precipitation is forecast for central and northeastern
Texas today into tomorrow as the upper level low produces the
dynamics to increase the chances for rain with embedded
thunderstorms.

The rain does not completely exit the WGRFC area until mid-week.
Some minor river flooding is probable while localized small river
and stream flooding remains possible as a result of localized
heavy downpours.

There is only a short break before rain chances increase again for
southeast Texas towards the end of the workweek.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 2.00 inches are forecast New Mexico and most
of Texas excluding far east and southeast.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.00
inch are forecast across central and northeast Texas with the
heaviest along the ARK-TEX border.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of up to 0.25
of an inch are forecast across central and eastern Texas along
the LA border.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.50
inches are forecast across far southeast Texas, with the heaviest
along the TX-LA border.

There was a slight increase in the abnormally dry category in the
drought conditions noted in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for
Texas through January 10, 2017. While there was little change for
New Mexico. In Texas, the area considered to be abnormally dry is
now at 25%. Also, 6% of Texas is experiencing moderate drought
conditions and less than 1% remains in severe drought, particularly
over northeast Texas near the Red River. In New Mexico the drought
monitor shows around 34% of the state experiencing abnormally dry
conditions, with 4% remaining in moderate drought.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Rivers across the WGRFC area are generally at seasonal low flows.
The only exception is the Rio Grande River around (1) Presidio and
(2) between Lake Amistad and  Laredo, Texas.  For the Presidio
region, higher than normal flows are occurring due to rainfall.  For
the river reach between Lake Amistad and Laredo, minor flooding is
occurring because of releases from Lake Amistad.  Significant
rainfall is forecast to occur across parts of Texas over the next
few days.  WGRFC will  continue to monitor this event for potential
flooding.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

AUSTIN-SMITH


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