Hydrometeorological Discussion
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AGUS74 KFWR 241727
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1126 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

                 VALID JANUARY 24 THROUGH JANUARY 29

...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WGRFC AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
The low pressure system that moved across Texas the past 24 hours is
located well east of the WGRFC area this morning.  Widespread
precipitation occurred with this storm, resulting in minor flooding on
some of the rivers over roughly the southeast third of Texas.
Residual light precipitation fell the past 24 hours across central and
east Texas into Louisiana. The heaviest rain the past 24 hours was
near Austin where amounts of around 0.50 inch were noted.  By last
evening the precipitation exited Texas to the east as the upper level
low accelerated into Louisiana.

A strong northerly flow of air has brought dry conditions into the
WGRFC area. Mild and dry weather should continue as this flow
persists through the weekend.  An upper air disturbance will be
passing to the northeast of our region Sunday morning, but no
precipitation will occur.

A ridge of high pressure will build over the intermountain region
later Sunday into Monday.  This ridge will move eastward and will be
over Texas by Tuesday morning.  As a result a dry northerly air flow
will continue and Texas will be free of precipitation.

During the day Tuesday a low pressure system will move northward into
the western states. Thereafter, this low will weaken and move
eastward across the central Rockies and the central plains.  This may
bring some precipitation to parts of far west Texas and New Mexico as
early as Monday night, then over northern New Mexico and Colorado
Tuesday into Wednesday morning.  Otherwise dry weather will continue.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch
are forecast over the southwest half of New Mexico into far west
Texas.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch
are forecast over southern Colorado and northern New Mexico, as well
as over parts of northeast Texas.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, almost half the state is experiencing
moderate or worse drought (41%), and 11% has extreme to exceptional
drought conditions. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (65%), and 4% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. Outside of east and southeast Texas,
soils are generally dry. The current precipitation forecast the
next five days will not be heavy enough to produce new or additional
runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Some runoff is still being experienced over the middle and lower
sections  of the Trinity River basin.  Bedias Creek near Madisonville
(MDST2)  has crested slightly above minor flood criteria. No other
locations are expected to reach criteria levels.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding is occurring on the  Neches River near Dibol (DIBT2).
The Angelina River near Lufkin (LUFT2) is also expected to remain
in minor criteria for a few days.  Attoyac Bayou near Chireno
(ATBT2) has risen to minor flood levels and predicted to rise over
the next few days to near 17 feet and crest.   Ayish Bayou near San
Augustine (AYIT2) has crested near 13 feet and is slowly falling.
Pine Island near Sour Lake (SOLT2) has risen  slightly above action
stage and is expected to continue its rise  slightly above minor
flood criteria over the next few days.

...Brazos Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Moderate rainfall over the lower portions of the Brazos has
produced enough runoff to cause several points to rise above
bankfull levels. The Brazos River near Bryan (BBZT2) is cresting
slightly above 24 feet and is expected to remain above criteria for
several days.  The Middle Yegua Creek near Dime Box (DMYT2) has
crested slightly below minor flood criteria and is currently
receding.  The East Yegua Creek near Dime Box (DEYT2) has risen
above bankfull and should begin receding quickly at the beginning
of the week. Davidson Creek near Lyons (LYNT2) has crested and is
slowly receding. These rains have also helped Lake Limestone rise
about a foot over the past couple of days.  It should reach its
conservation pool level in a couple of days. The Navasota River at
Old Spanish Rd. near Normangee (NGET2) is above action stage
criteria and still on the rise. It should crest in the next couple
of days slightly below 14 feet then recede.  The Brazos River near
Hempstead (HPDT2) is still rising from upstream runoff.  This
location should crest below 34 feet early next week.  The Brazos
River downstream at Richmond (RMOT2) is starting to rise and is
expected to rise above action stage Sunday afternoon.  The crest is
forecast to be near 30 feet by Monday afternoon.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Sabine  River at Deweyville (DWYT2) remains steady above minor
criteria at this time based on reservoir releases upstream.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Guadalupe River at Gonzales (GNLT2) has crested slightly above
action stage overnight and is currently falling.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other forecast locations are at or near seasonal flows with no
additional flooding expected over the next 5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$




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