Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 261541
1041 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

                    VALID JULY 26 THROUGH JULY 31


                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The ridge that had been keeping Texas hot and dry over the past few
weeks has drifted westward and weakened, allowing some low level
Gulf moisture to stream into the state.  The flow is happening high
enough into the atmosphere to allow shower and thunderstorm
development to occur, beginning along the coast and pushing farther
inland during the day. The ridge has been keeping a "cap" on the
atmosphere with a layer of warmer not allowing air to rise, but the
mid level Gulf flow is allowing this cap to break and storms to
develop.  This scenario is expected to continue through Thursday.

By Thursday the ridge of high pressure to our west will begin to
strengthen once again over Utah.  This will put Texas in more of
a northwesterly upper air flow inhibiting the Gulf flow that is
generating these daily thunderstorms.  So expect a return to the hot
and dry weather this weekend that has dominated much of the weather

Monsoonal activity over New Mexico and Southern Colorado is expected
to continue through the entire period with up to 0.25 inches of
isolated rainfall possible each day.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches for the Gulf Coast region as well as
the monsoonal regions on New Mexico.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches over
more Central and Eastern Texas.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches
for far Northeastern Texas.

For Friday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Soils continue to dry out across Texas due to the warm temperatures
and a lack of significant rainfall.  The U.S. Drought Monitor has
categorized Texas as 13% abnormally dry, with almost 2% in moderate
or greater drought. Over New Mexico, 77% of the state is abnormally
dry, and 16% remains in the moderate drought category. Some rainfall
is forecast over the next five days primarily over east and southeast
Texas and western Louisiana.  This will keep drought conditions from
developing in this region, but only minor runoff is anticipated.  The
lack of heavy rainfall elsewhere will lead to continued drying
through this forecast period and no significant runoff is expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Lake Lewisville is decreasing their releases this morning.  As a
result, the Elm Fork of the Trinity River near Carrollton (CART2) is
expected to fall below criteria levels later today.  Further release
reductions are anticipated later this week at both Lewisville and
Grapevine Reservoirs.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Minor rises are occurring this morning on the lower Brazos River due
to locally heavy rain.  River levels are expected to crest later
today and begin falling.  Above normal flows will continue along the
lower Brazos River at Richmond (RMOT2) for the next several days.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Higher than normal seasonal flows are occurring in the eastern half
of Texas. Some rain is expected across parts of the region over the
next 5 days, but no significant river responses are expected over
this time frame.  Daily convective activity can cause minor rises
anywhere in the forecast area, but most areas will not see
significant convective activity this week.

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:



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