Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 301555
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HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1027 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

                    VALID JUNE 30 THROUGH JULY 5

...A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN IS RETURNING TO THE WGRFC AREA THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WITH NO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is currently weakening
over portions of north central Texas. Rainfall amounts have
decreased to around 0.25 inch per hour. Another area of showers
and thunderstorms developed early this morning over portions of
West Texas. This activity is currently moving into an area from
Candelaria to Presidio. Rainfall amounts associated with these
storms are also in the process of decreasing...mainly averaging
0.50 inch per hour.

Over the next several days, any rains that fall across the
WGRFC area are not expected to be widespread or significant.
This is due to a ridge of high pressure currently dominating
most of the region. By tomorrow into Thursday...the ridge to
our west will broaden out and dominate much of Texas, thus most
of the region will have dry weather.  However, scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected to continue along and near the
Gulf coast due to land and sea interactions tomorrow through
Friday. Elsewhere, diurnal thunderstorms should persist each
afternoon over parts of New Mexico and Colorado Wednesday
through Friday.

While only light rain is forecast for the middle and latter parts
of the week, significant river flooding is expected to continue
for many more days on some of the Texas rivers due to past rainfall
events.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of Deep
South Texas.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50
inch are forecast for portions of Deep South Texas, southern
Colorado and northern New Mexico.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are
forecast for portions of Deep South Texas and northern New Mexico.

Many lakes, especially over the northeastern half of Texas, are full
and are releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules.
Soil moisture remains high across much of Texas from rainfall over
the past two months.  Rainfall over the next five days in primarily
southeastern Texas may be enough to cause some runoff locally, but
significant, widespread runoff is not expected. Rainfall intensities
and potential runoff will be monitored.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Widespread flooding continues along the Trinity River mainstem.
Flood stages will continue for some time as travel time from
Dallas to Lake Livingston averages about 2 weeks. Lake Livingston
has been able to reduce their releases a little over the last few
days as the lake returns to its normal elevation. Therefore stages
are falling downstream, including within moderate flood at Liberty
(LBYT2). Another wave of moderate flooding is working its way down
the middle Trinity River. Trinidad (TDDT2) has crested but will
remain within moderate flood for a few days. Long Lake (LOLT2) will
rise above moderate flood stage overnight and crest mid week.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Significant flooding has ended in the Guadalupe River basin.
Releases out of Canyon Lake were decreased last week, but
remain higher than normal. Minor flooding continues on the
Guadalupe River near Bloomington (DUPT2).

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Higher than normal flows continue throughout the Neches River
basin, but minor flooding continues only on the Angelina River
near Lufkin (LUFT2) and on the Neches River near Town Bluff
(TBFT2). There is still significant flood water in Sam Rayburn
Reservoir which is above the flood pool; therefore releases will
continue for several weeks and will keep Town Bluff within minor
flood.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues at Mineola (MLAT2) and  Deweyville
(DWYT2). Toledo Bend will be transitioning from 24 hour power
generation to 12 hour power generation overnight. 12 hours of power
generation are expected to occur each day. This will create
fluctuations in stage downstream at Burkeville and Bon Wier this
week, and falling stages at Deweyville by the weekend.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
All locations along the river are now below minor flood
levels. Flows along the river system will remain well above
normal because of the releases from the upstream lakes

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soils remain wetter than  normal over much of the WGRFC area.
Higher than normal flows should be the norm throughout the area.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS


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