Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 021608
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1108 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

                     VALID JUNE 2 THROUGH JUNE 7

...DRIER WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE WGRFC FORECAST AREA
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently moving over
the Texas Panhandle and northwest Texas. This activity is
dissipating and therefore should not be an issue over any of the
area river systems.

An upper level ridge is now developing over the desert southwest
and will influence the weather over the WGRFC forecast area for
many days. Another closed low is expected to form off the west
coast however, the upper level ridge over our region
will impact the movement of this system and probably push it to
the north of the WGRFC forecast area. The long range models
indicate that a ridge of high pressure will remain over the WGRFC
are for the remainder of the week, therefore no significant
precipitation is expected the next 5 days.

Even though significant rainfall is not forecast for several days,
moderate and major flooding will continue to be in the news for
the next couple of weeks. See the hydrologic discussion section
of this discussion for more details on each basin affected.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts
are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of southern Colorado and northern New
Mexico.

Drought conditions have rapidly improved across all regions of the
WGRFC area. Recent precipitation events since Memorial Day have
brought drought relief throughout the region.  In Texas, only about
3% of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought
conditions, and extreme to exceptional drought conditions are no
longer being observed. In New Mexico, a little over a third of the
state (western New Mexico) is experiencing moderate or worse
drought conditions (36%), and they also are free from extreme or
exceptional drought conditions. Many of the lakes in Texas have
risen rapidly over the past few weeks due to recent heavy rainfall.
Many lakes, especially in the eastern half of Texas, are full and
are releasing water according to regulation rules. Any rainfall
that may fall over the next five days over Texas and New Mexico
will not likely be heavy enough to produce significant runoff.
Conditions will be monitored closely.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Nueces Basin...
...Major Flooding...
The Nueces River at Tilden (TILT2) has crested from routed water,
but will remain above major flood stage for five days. Three
Rivers (THET2) will continue to rise within moderate flood
over the next couple of days. Inflows will be on the increase
into Lake Corpus Christi. Current releases around 8000 cfs
will result in major flooding at Bluntzer (CBVT2) and moderate
flooding at Calallen (CAAT2) and Mathis (MTBT2).
On the Frio River, all forecast points are now below flood stage.
Choke Canyon Reservoir remains well below the conservation pool
and continues to rise only slowly.

...Trinity Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Even though the rain has ended, major flooding will continue
for the next week on the Trinity River. Non-flood control
reservoirs are still passing inflows downstream to maintain their
lakes at safe levels. All of the flood control lakes are into their
flood pools and several have reached the top of their flood pools
and have started required releases or spills.  Along the Elm Fork
and mainstem, major flooding continues from Carrolton (CART2)
through Dallas (DALT2) and all the way to Oakmont/Long Lake (LOLT2).
But Dallas and Carrolton should finally drop below major flood level
in a day or two.

The East Fork of the Trinity River at Crandall (CNLT2) continues
to recover from their major flood event. Lake Ray Hubbard (FRHT2)
has been able to reduce their releases again this morning. Several
reports of levee overtopping in the region between Crandall and
Rosser (RSRT2) have been confirmed by the USCOE.  Lake Livingston
continues high releases which will keep the downstream points in
flood with Liberty (LBYT2) still in major flood level; however, the
lake was able to reduce their releases slightly on Monday. A slight
increase is possible next week depending on the arrival time of the
major flood in Rosser.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
At Victoria (VICT2) and Bloomington (DUPT2), falling stages
are expected but moderate flooding is expected to continue for
at least a few days.

...Neches Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The Neches River system remains in elevated flow levels with
several locations currently in minor flood levels.The only
location in Moderate flood levels is the Neches River at Weiss
Bluff. Most of the forecast locations have crested and are
beginning to fall. Sam Rayburn Reservoir plans to begin power
generation later today. B.A. Steinhagen Lake is passing inflow.

...Brazos Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Flood waters continue to recede in the Brazos River Basin.
Higher than normal levels are still occurring across much of the
basin with some moderate flooding occurring in the lower basin.

...San Bernard Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Boling (BOLT2) will continue to fluctuate between minor
and moderate flood levels as runoff continues to affect
the area but should recover within a few days.  East
Bernard (EBBT2) and Sweeney (SWYT2) will also fluctuate
around minor flood levels but no dramatic changes are
anticipated.

...San Jacinto Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
All points have crested and in recession currently. Cypress
Creek at Katy-Hockley Road (KHOT2) crested and is still above
minor flood levels. The West Fork San Jacinto near Humble is
still above action stage.  Both locations are in recession.

...Sabine Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Many areas within the Sabine Basin are in minor flood level and
should stay that way for several weeks.  The only point still over
moderate flood is Gladewater (GDWT2).  Points from Gladewater
(GDWT2) and downstream are still showing slow rises.  Below Toledo
Bend Reservoir, Bon Weir (BWRT2) and Deweyville (DWYT2) continue
to trend downward with the reduction of releases from Toledo Bend.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Releases out of Marte Gomez Reservoir in Mexico are driving a
rise on the Rio Grande near San Benito and Ramirez (SBNT2).
This rise will continue downstream to Brownsville and Matamoros.
The flood control system in the area is diverting extra flows.

...San Antonio Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher than normal flows continue downstream of San Antonio on
Cibolo Creek and the San Antonio River. No flooding is expected.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Currently, most rivers are having ongoing flooding conditions
and remain very sensitive to further rainfall. Soil conditions
remain very saturated but with rainfall chances diminished over
the next few days, the water will have a chance to move downstream.
Soil conditions will remain very wet through the week.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS


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