Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 181601
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1101 AM CDT FRI AUG 18 2017

                  VALID AUGUST 18 THROUGH AUGUST 23

...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL THE NEXT FIVE DAYS IS FORECAST
TO BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A high pressure ridge has developed across the southern U.S.,
including southeast Texas. This high will bring a drying trend to
especially central and south Texas after today that will last into
next week, while precipitation is forecast to persist around the
periphery of this ridge. Showers and thunderstorms have developed
over northern Texas already. The best chances for rainfall will be
over northern and northeastern Texas today, with a another area
of showers and thunderstorms possible along the Rio Grande.

The region will not see much change in this weather pattern into
next week, except that rain will become more widespread Saturday in
southern New Mexico, far western Texas, and northern Mexico. Over the
weekend, showers and thunderstorms will spread northward into
northern New Mexico and Colorado. Some thunderstorms may occur each
day as well over the Texas Gulf coast into east Texas and Louisiana
due to the sea breeze.

By the middle of next week, rainfall chances will be on the increase
in northern Texas due to an approaching cold front.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of up to 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of southwestern
Texas into northern Mexico. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast for central, northern, and eastern Texas and the for
the Texas panhandle.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inch are
forecast for portions of southern New Mexico, far western Texas near
El Paso, and into northern Mexico. MAP amounts of up to 0.5 inch are
forecast for a larger portion of southern and central New Mexico and
far western Texas. MAP amounts of up to 0.25 inch are forecast for
eastern and northern Texas.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are
forecast for most of New Mexico and for portions of southwestern and
south central Colorado and far western Texas into northern Mexico.
MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for eastern and
northern Texas.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of up to 0.25 inch
are forecast for most of New Mexico and Colorado and for
northwestern, eastern, and northern Texas.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 10%, and only 1% of Texas is
experiencing moderate drought conditions.  In New Mexico, only 1% of
the state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions, and that is in
the southwest portion. The rainfall forecast the next five days may
be heavy enough to produce runoff through tonight over north Texas.
Otherwise, no significant runoff is expected over the WGRFC area.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The headwaters of the Sabine are still experiencing minor flood
levels after continuing recent heavy rainfall. Lake Fork is now over
its conservation stage and releasing enough water to cause minor
flooding downstream.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Luis Leon reservoir in Mexico is releasing water which will keep the
Rio Grande higher than normal through the Presidio and Big Bend
regions.  Thunderstorms over the next few days may cause additional
brief rises above action or even flood stage since the river is so high
already.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other mainstem sites and tributaries are at seasonal flow levels
with no additional flooding expected for the next few days.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

PHILPOTT


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