Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 051611
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1111 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

               VALID SEPTEMBER 5 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 10

...COASTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG WITH MONSOONAL ACTIVITY OUT WEST...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The morning opens again with scattered showers along the
Texas Gulf coast.  Continued coastal seabreeze showers are forecast
for the rest of the day with local amounts once again as high as 2
inches. Basin averaged amounts will be less than 0.5 inch. A strong
upper level storm system is located over the Pacific Northwest. A
large ridge of high pressure is now centered over Texas.
Strong southwesterly flow aloft in between these systems continues
today, bringing upper level monsoon moisture to New Mexico and
Colorado. This will lead to another round of showers and
thunderstorms, particularly for the western half of these states.

Over the next couple of days, the trough will slowly advance
eastward while the high over Texas will shift slightly westward. The
flow over New Mexico and Colorado will shift such that shower
and thunderstorm coverage will decrease each day. Southeastern and
coastal Texas, though, should see sea breeze shower and thunderstorm
activity throughout this period, possibly increasing early in the
coming week due to a developing upper level low over the northern
Gulf of Mexico.

The upper level storm system currently over the Pacific Northwest
will eventually bring a cold front to northern Texas on Wednesday
and and with it a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Another
disturbance coming from the northwest may cause additional shower
and thunderstorm activity throughout Texas on Friday.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for portions of New Mexico
and southwestern Colorado. Lesser amounts are forecast for most of
the rest of New Mexico and Colorado and for southeastern Texas.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are
forecast for the Rio Conchos basin of northwestern Mexico. Lesser
amounts are forecast for southern New Mexico and for southeastern
Texas.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are
forecast for portions of the Rio Conchos basin of northwestern
Mexico. Lesser amounts are forecast for portions of southern and
central New Mexico and of eastern Texas.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are
forecast for northern Texas. Lesser amounts are forecast for
portions of central and western Texas and of southern New Mexico.

Drought conditions are returning to a good part of the southeast
two thirds of Texas.  Topsoil moisture has decreased during the
past month or so, thus it will take more rainfall for runoff to
occur. In Texas 41% of the state is abnormally dry, with 6% in
severe drought.  In New Mexico, 51% of New Mexico is also abnormally
dry.  The rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy
enough to cause significant runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC rivers are below criteria. The precipitation forecast over
the next couple days is not expected to create significant issues.
Dry soil conditions continue across most of Texas.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

PHILPOTT


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