Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 161740
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1139 AM CST SAT DEC 16 2017

                VALID DECEMBER 16 THROUGH DECEMBER 21

...COUPLE PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WGRFC AREA
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A deep low pressure system in the upper atmosphere is located over
northern Mexico southeast of El Paso TX this morning. Moisture is
abundant ahead of this low which has resulted in widespread light
precipitation from northern Mexico into south Texas the past two
days.  The heaviest rainfall amounts have been around 0.65 of an inch
near Goliad TX. This morning the upper level low is beginning to move
northeastward, and by tonight it will move over the Texas panhandle
and will be over Kansas by Sunday morning.  As this occurs a surface
trough will move quickly eastward which will enhance the rainfall.
The focus for showers and thunderstorms is forecast to shift toward
portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana by tonight.  At this
time maximum rainfall amounts of one to 1.50 inches are expected.  As
the upper low moves further northeast the rainfall will end over
Texas Sunday.

Meanwhile, a new upper air low is forecast to replace the old low
and drop south of Arizona Sunday.  As a result a new area of rain
and snow is expected Sunday over especially southern New Mexico.  By
Monday the upper low will move slowly from southeast Arizona into New
Mexico. Well out ahead of this low some showers will likely redevelop
over east Texas and western Louisiana.  Otherwise the precipitation
areas will be confined to southern New Mexico and far west Texas. By
Tuesday this upper low will slide eastward across the Texas
panhandle, then eventually across north Texas into Arkansas by
Wednesday morning.  This storm may produce isolated heavy rainfall
amounts of 1.50 to 2.00 inches over northeast Texas.  Although this
precipitation will bring some relief to the dry conditions over
portions of the state, unfortunately the abnormally dry conditions
are expected to continue.  No flooding is expected the next 5 days.

Dry weather is forecast from Wednesday morning into Thursday
morning as a surface high pressure system dominates the weather over
our region.  But yet another storm system is forecast to move into
the four corners region Thursday which will bring precipitation to
the western parts of the WGRFC area just beyond this 5 day forecast
period.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts
of 0.25 of an inch or more are forecast over the eastern half of
Texas and western Louisiana.  The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of
1.50 inches, are forecast for portions of southeast Texas near La
Grange.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over
the eastern two thirds of Texas into Louisiana, as well as over
extreme southwest New Mexico.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
forecast for portions of extreme southeast Texas and southwest
Louisiana, as well as over the southwestern third of New Mexico into
the El Paso Texas area.   MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch
are forecast over the southeast quarter of Texas into much of
Louisiana, as well as over far west Texas and southern New Mexico.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast over the southeast third of Texas and most of Louisiana.
MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over most of
the WGRFC area except for west Texas into northern New Mexico and
southern Colorado.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch
or more are forecast over the northeast half of Texas and Louisiana.
The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.50 inches, are forecast for
portions of east central and northeast Texas into northern Louisiana.
MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over most of
Texas except the far west and for southwestern Colorado.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 71%, with around 26% of the state
experiencing moderate drought and 12% in severe drought.  In New
Mexico, 89% of the state is having abnormally dry conditions, with
16% in moderate drought conditions (over the western portions).
With the dry weather this fall, a large portion of the WGRFC forecast
area is experiencing some type of abnormally dry or drought
condition.  The heaviest rainfall the next five days will fall in
locations where soils are some of the driest in Texas. Therefore,
while minor runoff may occur from the rain, no significant runoff is
expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
Toledo Bend continues to release 7000 cfs for 2-3 hours each day for
low flow considerations until further notice.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All rivers across the WGRFC area are at or below normal flows and are
expected to remain below criteria levels over the next 5 days

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

$$




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