Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 281550
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HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1048 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2017

                    VALID APRIL 28 THROUGH MAY 3

...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 THIS WEEKEND...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A few showers are ongoing across Colorado, New Mexico and Oklahoma
this morning and should continue for the remainder of the day.
This activity is associated with an upper low currently
strengthening over the Four Corners region. Rainfall amounts will
remain less than 1.00 inch across the impacted area.

Later this evening, showers and thunderstorms will likely develop
over Central Oklahoma and move southward into the Red River
and North Texas by tomorrow morning as this storm deepens.
On tomorrow this storm will begin moving slowly east and by Sunday
morning/afternoon this storm will be moving over Kansas. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue Saturday into Sunday afternoon over
primarily northern and eastern Texas, with some locally heavy
rainfall possible.  Excessive rainfall is possible just north of
the Sabine River basin over extreme northeast Texas. The WGRFC will
continue to monitor the progress of this storm system.  The
precipitation should move east during the day Sunday, and mostly
dry weather is expected from later Sunday into Monday morning.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of up to 1.00 are forecast for portions of North Texas (near
the Red River) and New Mexico and Colorado.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of up to 3.00 inches
are forecast for portions of extreme northeast Texas (near the
Arklatex region). Lessser amounts are forecast for areas mainly
along and east of I-35.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of up to 0.50 inch are
forecast for the eastern two thirds of Texas.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Soil moisture conditions continue to show improvement due to recent
rainfall events. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the
area considered to be abnormally dry at 10%. Also, 2% of Texas was
experiencing moderate drought, with nothing in severe drought. In
New Mexico the Drought Monitor shows 46% of the state experiencing
abnormally dry conditions, with nothing in the moderate drought
category or worse categories.  The rainfall forecast may produce
significant runoff over the northern and eastern Texas basins this
weekend.  Elsewhere, no significant runoff is expected over the
WGRFC area the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
In agreement with our neighboring River Forecast Centers and local
Weather Offices, we have adjusted the amount of forecasted
precipitation (QPF) that we are using in our forecast models this
morning. From now through Monday morning, we will be using 48 hours
of QPF to fully capture the heavy rain event expected in the upper
Sabine River basin starting Saturday. At this time, only minor
flooding is expected to develop along the smaller headwater basins,
including Lake Fork Creek since Lake Fork is likely have to release
since it is already officially full. Minor flooding is also expected
on the mainstem of the Sabine near Mineola, but not further
downstream where the channel has a higher capacity.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
With cooler temperatures the snow-melt has slowed in the Upper Rio
Grande so current levels will be maintained without the diurnal
rises. The Trinity and Neches River basins are at the edge of the
heavy rain event expected this weekend, so they will be monitored
for any localized pockets of heavy rain that may cause minor rises.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

MCCANTS


$$





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