Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 221531
1031 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

                   VALID APRIL 22 THROUGH APRIL 27


                    ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Even with the passing of the frontal system overnight into this
morning low level moisture is still abundant.  Precipitable Water
(PW) values are running near to slightly above normal for this time
of year.  Considering another trough moving east across the Rockies
towards the central plains late Wednesday, there will be an
increased chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night mainly
confined to north and east Texas.  However, the chance for lingering
rains remains low into Thursday morning as zonal flow returns to the
area. Activity should remain isolated. Storms are also possible
across the Texas coast during this timeframe.

A quick moving Pacific storm will move into the Pacific Northwest
Wednesday, crossing into the Northern Plains by Thursday.  This
feature will drag a trough of low pressure over the area.  This
pattern on Thursday will look similar to the pattern over the last
few days.

There is the chance of widespread significant rainfall for the WGRFC
area starting later this weekend.  The more reliable meteorological
models have consistently advertised well-organized Pacific storm
moving across the California Coast and cross the Desert Southwest
this weekend.  These models are showing a favorable environment for
the development of heavy rainfall over the eastern 2/3 of the WGRFC
area starting Sunday, and staying in the forecast through the end of
their model runs.

If the models continue to advertise heavy rainfall in the same areas
for the same time period, the confidence for a heavy rain event will
increase.  We will continue to monitor this possible event and will
update accordingly.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 are
forecast for a narrow area from the Hill country north through the
Possum Kingdom lake area and into Oklahoma.

The drought conditions continue to deteriorate over most of the
region.  Almost all of New Mexico and 82% of Texas remain in some
level of drought category. In addition, 29% of Texas and 25% of New
Mexico are in extreme drought.  Statewide, in Texas, reservoirs are,
on average, less than 65% full.  This is below average for this time
of year, with average being about 80% full.  There is considerable
variability across the state, with many of the reservoirs in the
western half of the state below 50% full.  Due to the dry soil
moisture conditions, the rainfall forecast over the next 5 days will
not be heavy enough to produce significant runoff.  Mainstem river
flooding is not expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Amistad releases are elevating flows along the mainstem from Amistad
downstream to Falcon Lake.  No significant impacts are expected,
although the river at Columbia Bridge (CBBT2) is fluctuating above
an action level for pumps and livestock in the area.  The duration
of Amistad releases is unknown at this time.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
No significant flooding is expected from rainfall forecast in the
next 5 days. An event expected beyond the five day period is being
monitored at this time.

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:



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