Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 301624
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1124 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

                 VALID AUGUST 30 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 4

...TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE COAST BUT NOT MAKING
IT INLAND...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The front from the upper level trough has pushed through as the
trough has now dampened out and become part of the westerlies. The
main impact for today will be the continued onshore flow of tropical
moisture bringing at times heavy precipitation along the coast.  As
much as 3 inches per hour rainfalls have been recorded so far this
morning, but this rainfall has not pushed very far inland.  This
strong stream of moisture is aided by a strong upper level high
pressure system off the Carolina coast causing a consistent flow over
the Gulf towards the Texas and Louisiana Gulf coast.  This should
continue for the next 24 to 48 hours, but no precipitation is
expected to make it very far inland.  The heavier rainfall will be
focused to the east for the lower Sabine and Neches River basins, but
not expected to have an impact at many river sites.  Some out of bank
flooding may occur for the lower Sabine but is not forecasted at this
time.

The coastal rainfall may continue into next week, but not to be as
extreme as yesterday and today.  The rest of the WGRFC looks to have
zonal dry air aloft and will keep the area fairly dry.  Monsoonal
precipitation over New Mexico is even expected to be limited over the
forecast period as the abundance of upper level dry air will limit
thunderstorm development. There is still a small possibility of
another tropical wave reaching the Bay of Campeche which could bring
even more rainfall to south Texas later next week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of an inch are forecasted by WPC for eastern Texas.  A half
an inch is possible for the Gulf coast with 0.25 inches just a few
miles inland.

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.5 inches are
possible for the Brownsville area.

Drought persists over Texas and New Mexico.  Statewide, New
Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought while less than 3% of Texas
remains in exceptional drought.  Severe drought conditions are
impacting 40% of New Mexico and 34% of Texas.  The monsoonal rains in
New Mexico continue to ease the drought conditions in many areas
of the state.  Some runoff can be expected along the immediate Texas
Gulf coast the next 5 days, but minor or no runoff is anticipated
elsewhere.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
River conditions across the WGRFC area remain near or below seasonal
flows. Locally heavy rainfall is occurring along the Texas Gulf Coast
and in the lower Sabine River basin. Runoff is possible in river
basins in these areas. However, no significant flooding is forecast
to occur through the forecast period.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

GIARDINO


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