Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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000
AGUS73 KMSR 021457
HMDMSR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...PRECIPITATION...

DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STREAKED ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.. NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN
DROPPING UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN.  THE HEAVIEST RAINS IN IOWA AND
MISSOURI WERE JUST WEST OF OUR SERVICE AREA.. BUT WE SAW SOME
SPOTTY REPORTS OF UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN CENTRAL IOWA AND EASTERN
MISSOURI.

ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.  SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE AT TIMES AND PRODUCE PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN.  BY MONDAY A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

DURING THE NEXT WEEK RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS OUR ENTIRE SERVICE
AREA.  DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS UP TO AN INCH IS FORECAST OVER THE
LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN

DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK WE ARE EXPECTING UP TO THREE INCHES OF
RAIN OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI.


...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...

THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WITHIN THE NCRFC AREA.
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE ILLINOIS RIVER IN
ILLINOIS. HAVANA AND BEARDSTOWN ARE THE ONLY TWO LOCATIONS STILL
ABOVE MODERATE AS THE RIVER IS SLOWLY RECEDING.  THE WHOLE RIVER
SHOULD FALL BELOW MODERATE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS BARRING ANY
ADDITIONAL LARGE RAINFALL EVENTS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA... THE
GREEN BAY AREA OF WISCONSIN... AND NORTHERN PARTS OF MICHAGN.
GREEN BAY IS NEARLY FIVE INCHES BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
THE YEAR.  SEE HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

AVERAGE STREAMFLOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS GENERALY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE NCRFC SERVICE AREA. SEVEN DAY STREAM FLOW
AVERAGES INDICATE THAT MUCH OF IA... MO... IL... AND IN ARE IN THE
>90TH PERCENTILE... WHILE SD... ND... AND MI ARE IN THE >75TH
PERCENTILE.  THE STATES OF MN AND WI ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST
PART.  THE ONLY AREAS OF THE NCRFC THAT ARE IN THE BELOW NORMAL
(<25TH PERCENTILE) ARE THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...
THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD REGION OF
MINNESOTA.  DESPITE THE NCRFC AREA CURRENTLY NOT EXPERIENCING
SIGNFICANT FLOODING... THE CURRENT STREAMFLOWS ACROSS THE REGION
INDICATE THAT THE RIVERS ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING THAN
NORMAL IF A LARGE RAINFALL EVENT(S) OCCURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL AND MORE IN-DEPTH INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER
FORECASTS...PRECIPITATION AND ALL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION
IN THE NCRFC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...PLEASE REFER TO THE NCRFC
WEB PAGE AT:     HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NCRFC

EMERGENCY CALL BACK LIST: SDB... BAC

IF NO RESPONSE FROM THIS LIST... CALL THE DOH...SCH OR HIC.


$$

...BAC/JDT...





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