Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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AGUS73 KMSR 011613
HMDMSR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1113 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...PRECIPITATION...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED NORTH OF NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD.  A SECOND LOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT
AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO SAULT STE. MARIE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...HALF AN INCH TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN FELL OVER
WESTERN IOWA WITH THE HIGHEST REPORTS IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE.  A TRACE TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN FELL OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
THERE WAS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OVER MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN...AND
MICHIGAN.

IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS ON TAP FOR
MISSOURI WITH A QUARTER INCH TO 1 INCH FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...IOWA...ILLINOIS...WISCONSIN...AND THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN.  DAY 2 SHOWS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN TO SOUTHEST MISSOURI.  DAY 3 SHOWS THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER
THE WESTERN U.P. AND LOWER MICHIGAN.  DAYS 4 AND 5 LOOK RELATIVELY
COOL AND DRY EXCEPT FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.

...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...

DUE TO THE ONGOING RAINFALL IN IOWA... THE RACCOON RIVER AT DES MOINES
IS FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS SMALL ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE NCRFC
AREA CATEGORIZED AS ABNORMALLY DRY.  THE MAJORITY OF THE NCRFC AREA
DOES NOT WARRANT A DRY/DROUGHT CATEGORY.

THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY DAILY STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS SHOW MOST
GAGING LOCATIONS IN THE NCRFC AREA IN THE 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE.
THERE ARE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE OR HIGHER... AND
A FEW LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN ARE SEEING FLOWS LESS THAN
THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR TODAY.


FOR ADDITIONAL AND MORE IN-DEPTH INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER
FORECASTS...PRECIPITATION AND ALL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION
IN THE NCRFC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...PLEASE REFER TO THE NCRFC
WEB PAGE AT:     HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NCRFC

EMERGENCY CALL BACK LIST: MMZ JCH ALH WES

IF NO RESPONSE FROM THIS LIST... CALL THE DOH...SCH OR HIC.


$$

...BSITES/ALH...





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