Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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AGUS73 KMSR 161722

Hydrometeorological Forecast Discussion
NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1121 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017


Snowfall amounts since yesterday morning were mainly 1 to 3 inches over
the northeast half of the NCRFC region.  Mainly across North Dakota and
from northwest to east central Minnesota through Wisconsin, water content
of the snowfall averaged around a tenth of an inch.  In upper to lower
Michigan, snowfall averaged 1-3 inches with higher bands of lake effect
snow areas between 4 and 10 inches.  For most locations water content of
the snowfall was around a tenth inch or less, except around a quarter to
half inch with the heavier snow mainly along north shore areas of upper
Michigan and along southwest to northern lower Michigan.

In the forecast....mostly light snow will continue today across northern
Michigan and along northern upper Michigan. Precipitation totals should
average around a tenth inch or less.  Then Sunday through Monday morning
an area of mostly light rain will spread across Missouri and Illinois to
Indiana, producing around a tenth inch or less of rain.

...Hydrologic Conditions...

Potential for ice jams is the only flood concern currently in the
NCRFC area. The Menominee at Pembine is elevated to flood level
due to an ice jam. The river has stabilized and is slowly dropping
with no known impacts.  Several additional sites across the region
are showing signs of ice effected stages, including advisory level
stages on the Trempealeau and Oconto Rivers in Wisconsin, and the
Looking Glass River near Eagle, Michigan. Flooding remains a
possibility for ice jam-prone locations across the region.

Due to open water freezing in the northern part of the NCRFC,
a dip of reduced flow is working its way down the main stem
Mississippi. This is the first of a series of "ice bite"
events expected. Water temperatures are around the freezing
mark down to L & D 13 but much open water still exists.

The temperature outlook shows some potential for another deep
freeze around Christmas which would freeze up rivers for the
middle portion of the NCRFC creating a second ice bite event.

Navigation on the Mississippi at St. Louis can be greatly
impacted from sharp flow loss or critically low stages.

For additional and more in-depth information concerning river
forecasts, precipitation and all hydrometeorological information
in the NCRFC area of responsibility, please refer to the NCRFC
web page at:     http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc

Emergency Call Back List: JDT JMP BAC

If no response from this list, call the DOH, SCH or HIC.



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