Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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AGUS73 KMSR 021740
HMDMSR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1240 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

...PRECIPITATION...

IN THE PAST 24 HOURS... INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS DROPPED LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS... PARTICULARLY THE MERAMEC RIVER
BASIN WHERE UP TO TWO INCHES WERE OBSERVED... AND THE MISSISSIPPI
MAINSTEM LOCAL AREA ABOVE CHESTER ILLINOIS WHERE RAIN REPORTS
EXCEEDED FOUR INCHES.  ELSEWHERE... SHOWERS FELL JUST ACROSS OUR
WESTERN BOUNDARY... WITH SMALL AMOUNTS UP TO A QUARTER INCH
TRICKLING INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA.

IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS... RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN OUR SOUTHERN AREA...
IN NORTH DAKOTA AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER... BUT BASIN AVERAGE
TOTALS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND... DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY IN OUR SOUTHERN AREA AND NORTHERN AREAS... BUT TOTALS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT.  THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST OVER NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  AT THIS
TIME... THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A GARDEN VARIETY COLD FRONT WITH
RESPECT TO MOISTURE AND RAINFALL TOTALS.

...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...

HEAVY RAINS HAVE FALLEN SOMEWHERE IN OUR SERVICE AREA EVERY DAY
FOR THE LAST 3 WEEKS.  DURING THAT PERIOD MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN
IOWA.. EASTERN MISSOURI.. ILLINOIS.. NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN HAVE SEEN 5-8 INCHES MORE RAIN THAN NORMAL.  MANY
AREAS RECEIVED MORE THAN 8 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.

AS A RESULT OF THIS PERSISTENT AND HEAVY RAINFALL.. MANY TRIBUTARY
RIVERS HAVE EXPERIENCED MAJOR TO RECORD FLOODING.  THE ILLINOIS
AND MISSISSIPPI MAINSTEM RIVERS HAVE EXPERIENCED MODERATE TO MAJOR
FLOODING.  THE LOWER ILLINOIS RIVER IS CRESTING AT RECORD LEVELS
AT SOME LOCATIONS.  MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM THE CONFLUENCE WITH THE ILLINOIS TO CHESTER
ILLINOIS.

FOR ADDITIONAL AND MORE IN-DEPTH INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER
FORECASTS...PRECIPITATION AND ALL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION
IN THE NCRFC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...PLEASE REFER TO THE NCRFC
WEB PAGE AT:     HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NCRFC

EMERGENCY CALL BACK LIST: LNE... JDT... ALH... JCH

IF NO RESPONSE FROM THIS LIST... CALL THE DOH...SCH OR HIC.


$$

...JMP/BAC...





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