Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGNT40 KWNM 140748
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
248 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

STG CAA CONTS ACRS MUCH OF THE OFFSHR WTRS EARLY THIS MRNG AND
SHUD BEGIN TO EASE LATER TDA INTO TNGT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE BUOY
OBS ARE HIGHER THAN THE MULTIGRID WWIII AND CLOSER TO THE EARLIER
12Z ECMWF WAM GUID WHICH IS EVIDENT OVR THE SRN AREAS OF THE NEW
ENGLAND WTRS. THERE WAS AN ASCAT PASS FM 02Z OVR THE NEW ENGLAND
WTRS INTO THE ERN AREAS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL MID ATLC WTRS. GALES
WERE WIDESPREAD ACRS THIS REGION WITH WINDS TO 35 KT. A COMPARISON
TO THE 00Z 30M GFS DOES SHOW THAT OBS ASCAT WINDS WERE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN THE OBSERVED BY ASCAT DATA. THE AREA OF GALES
SHIFT E OF THE OFFSHR WTRS LATER TDA INTO EARLY TNGT AS STG HIGH
PRES APPROACHES THE COASTLN. BY MON DVLPG LOW PRES MOVS NE FM THE
SE US TOWARDS THE MID ATLC REGION. MDL GUID CONTS TO SHOW DIFFS ON
THE TRACK OF THE DVLPG LOW PRES WHICH MOVS NE OVR THE MID ATLC
STATES FM MON NGT INTO TUE. THE GFS IS NOW QUICKER AND FURTHER NW
WITH ITS TRACK WHILE BOTH THE GEM/UKMET ARE SLOWER AND CLOSER TO
THE COASTLN. THE UKMET BY LATER TUE NGT INTO WED IS DEEPER WITH
THE SFC LOW. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SVRL DVLPG LOW ALG THE CD FNT
CLOSE TO THE COAST AND CONSOLIDATES THESE DVLPG LOWS BY TUE NGT.
THE 12Z ECMWF GUID DID SHOW SVRL LOW CNTRS ON THE FNT. WL FAVOR
THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE GRIDS...BUT HAV WINDS NO STGR THAN 45 KT
WITH CONFDC STILL NOT TOO HIGH CONCERNING WHERE ANY STORM FORCE
MAY BE. HIGH PRES DOES BEGIN TO BUILD IN FM THE W WED NGT AND
THU. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SMLR WITH AN UPR LVL MERIDIONAL TROF MOVG
OFFSHR LATE WED AND WED NGT. BOTH MDLS HINT AT A WK SFC LOW
FORMING...ALTHO NOT IN A SMLR LOCATION. THESE MDLS ARE SMLR WITH A
NLY SURGE DVLPG BY LATE WED NGT OR EARLY THU OVR THE OFFSHR WTRS
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FM THE W. WL USE THE ECMWF FOR GRIDS SINCE
IT WL BE USED WITH THE DVLPG LOW LATE MON INTO WED.

.SEAS...NOT MANY OBS WERE AVLBL TO ASSESS HOW GOOD THE MULTIGRID
WWIII AND ECMWF WAM WERE DOING ESPECIALLY OVR THE ERN NRN MID ATLC
AREAS EARLY THIS MRNG. WHERE BUOY OBS WERE AVLBL SEAS WERE HIGHER
THAN WWIII INDICATED. THE ECMWF CONTS TO BE MUCH HIGHER WITH SEAS
OVR THE ERN AREAS OF THE REGION. HAV NOT SEEN ANY RECENT JASON
DATA TO QUANTIFY THE ERN AREAS OF THE NRN MID ATLC WTRS. WL CONT
TO HAV A HIGHER WGT TOWARDS THE ECMWF WAM OVR THE WWIII SINCE IT
LIKELY IS DOING A BETTER JOB WITH THE STG CAA TDA.

EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...00Z ESTOFS CONTS TO LOWER
WITH NEGATIVE SURGE THIS MRNG COMPARED TO THE ESTSS WHICH DOES NOT
EASE UNTIL LATE SUN AND SUN NGT ALG THE MID ATLC NWD INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
     GALE TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY EARLY TODAY.
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.

$$

.FORECASTER ROWLAND. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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