Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 270719
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
319 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

THE GFS HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERL RUNS IN
THE SHORT TERM...THEN TRENDING TOWARDS GLOBAL CONSENSUS WITH STONG
LOW OVR THE W ATLC SAT..AND SHARP W ATLC SFC TROF SUN. BUIT DFFRNC
CONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SFC LOWS AND ASSD COLD FRONT CONTS TO APPCH THE COAST.
SCATTEROMETER PASS FM 02Z SHOWED AREA OF S GALES FM CAPE FEAR N TO
ABT 39N FM ABOUT 100 TO 200 NM OFFSHR. THESE WINDS ARE CLOSE TO
THE GFS 10M BL WINDS...THOUGH THE GFS WAS SLGTLY OVR DONE IN
SPOTS. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGRMNT IN THE TIMING OF COLD FRONT
PUSHING SE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND TNGT...WITH THE FRONT FCST
TO CLEAR THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY 12Z SAT...EXCEPT IT MAY BE
SCRAPING THE ERN BORDER OF THE WATERS NE OF BALT CANYON. MODELS
DIFFER ON THE LOC OF INDIV LOW SLIDING NE ALONG THE FRONT...BUT
THE RESULT IS THE SAME WITH WIDE AREA OF SW GALES PRECEEDING THE
FRONT BY 12Z. MODELS AGREE ON ENERGY CONSOLIDATING 100 TO 150 NM S
OF GEORGES BANK BY 12Z WITH SW WINDS INCRSNG TO 45 KT JUST SE OF
THE LOW...AND STORM FRC WINDS E OF THE OFFSHR WATERS. WILL ADD
SOME TSTMS TO THE WX OVR THE NRN WATERS AS LTG DTCTN SHOWS SCT
ACTVTY ALONG AND NR THE FRONT FM NOVA SCOTIA S THRU 31N.

MODELS ALL SHOW SHARP SFC TROF DVLPNG JUST S OF GEORGES BANK BY
12Z SUN IN RESPONCE TO APPCHNG UPR LOW. THE GFS HAS CONTD TO BACK
OFF ON ITS MORE AGGRSV SOLUTION AND NOW THE GFS AND UKMET ARE
SMLR...WITH THE GEM A BIT FTHR S WITH THE TROF. THE ECMWF IGNORES
THIS FTR AND IS THE ODD MODEL OUT. WILL MAINLY SEE WINDS RMNG AT
OR INCRSNG TO 25 KT OVR THE WATERS SAT NGT AND INTO SUN...THEN
DMNSHNG AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E.

FOR SUN NGT THRU...THE GFS CONTS TO BE THE STRNGST MODEL WITH SFC
LOW DIVING SE ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO QUE. THE CIRCLTN ARND THIS
LOW IS PRODUCING A SW FLOW OFF THE COAST APPCHNG GALE FRC BY 12Z
MON. THE UKMET/12Z ECMWF HV A FASTER...WEAKER LOW WITH WINDS MORE
IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AND LOOK MORE REASONABLE. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS ALSO WEAKER...BUT THE BROAD CRCLTN ARND THE LOW AND ASSD FRONT
IS SMLR TO THE GFS SO WL BLEND THE TOW MODELS.

FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THE 00Z GFS FLLWS THE 06Z AND 18Z RUNS IN
BRINGING STRNG CLIPPER RACING ESE AT 50 KT OFF THE NJ COAST TUE
NGT. THE GFS ENSMBL SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS. EXPECT THE MODELS
TO HAVE TIMING PRBLMS WITH FAST MVNG SYSTEMS. INTI PREFERRED THE
SLOWER UKMET. BUT THE NEW ECMWF IS JUST A FEW HOURS SLOWER AND
ALSO LESS INTENSE...THEN THE GFS. SINCE RECENT TRENDS ARE FOR OTHR
MODELS TO COME ARND TO THE GFS...WILL STAY WITH A GFS ECMWF BLEND.
THRU TUE NIGHT...AND AFTER. THE GEM IS SMLR IN BEING FAST...BUT
ITS TRACK IS ABOUT 500 NM FTHR S.


.SEAS...THE 00Z MULTIGRID WAVEWATCH III MODEL INITLZD WELL TNGT
WITH TNGT IN THE STRNG SRLY FLOW. THE WAVEWATCH GDNC LOOKS GOOD
AND PLAN TO STAY CLOSE TO GDNC THRU SUN...THEN USE A 50/50
WAVEWATCH/WAM BLEND TO MATCH THE WIND INPUT SELECTION FOR THE
GRIDS.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...THE ESTOFS FCST A BRIEF NEG
SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FT OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT. THE ETSS HAS FCST
VALUES LESS THAN 1 FT.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE TONIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER PROSISE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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