Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 270737
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
337 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL EARLY THIS
MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND EVE ASCAT PASSES WITH MAX
WINDS NR 20 KT OCCURRING OVR NE NT2 WTRS AND FAR SW NT2 WTRS.
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS NR GALE FORCE WERE NOTED ON THESE ASCAT
PASSES LKLY IN OR NR TSTMS OVR FAR NE NT2 WTRS OR OFF ZONES
ANZ910 AND 910 LATE LAST EVE.

THE LATEST SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DENSITY DATA INDICATE A STRONG
TSTM E OF VIRGINIA BEACH (OFFSHORE ZONE ANZ828) WITH SCTD TSTMS
EXTENDING FROM THIS REGION E AND NE OVR THE CENTRAL NT2 WTRS. THE
LATEST SREF TSTMS GUIDANCE KEEPS THE THREAT FOR THE STRONGEST
TSTMS OVR MAINLY CENTRAL INTO THE NRN PORTIONS OF NT2 WTRS TODAY
INTO THU. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS EXCEEDING GALES FORCE ARE POSSIBLE
IN OR NR THE STRONGER TSTMS.

OTW...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NR 40N62W W-SW OVR NRN NT2
WTRS AND REACHES THE COAST NR THE JERSEY SHORE EARLY THIS MORNING
PER THE 06Z PRELIM OPC-NCEP SFC ANALYSIS. THE FRONT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BECOME STNRY LTR TODAY AND TONITE OVR NRN OR CENTRAL
NT2. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW TONITE
INTO THU...AND NEAR THE COAST THU NITE INTO EARLY FRI. FOR THE
EARLY AM PACKAGE WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS 10M WINDS FOR
TODAY INTO THU EVE...AND THEN TRANSITION TO THE PREV GRIDS FOR
FRI AS THE 00Z ECMWF IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 12Z ECMWF CYCLE THAT
WAS PREFERRED IN THE PREV FCST. THE 00Z GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD
THE ECMWF SOLUTION BY FRI...WITH WEAK LOW PRES MOVG E ALONG THE
COLD FRONT LATER FRI...ALTHO IT MAY STILL BE A TAD TOO FAST. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PACKAGE FRI NITE THRU SUN NITE WE WILL RELY
ON THE PREV SET OF GRIDS AS THE 00Z ECMWF IS VRY SIMILAR TO THE
12Z CYCLE WHICH WAS USED FOR THE PREV FCST...AND WE SEE NO NEED
TO MAKE SIG CHANGES FOR THE LONGER TERM PORTION OF THE FCST AT
THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL TRACK E FROM NR CAPE MAY LTR FRI AND FRI
NITE...AND PASS OVR FAR SRN NT1 WTRS SAT INTO SAT NITE WHILE
PULLING THE ASSOC COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD OVR THE REGION. THE
FRONT STILL APPEARS AS IF IT WILL STALL OVR NRN NT2 WTRS SAT NITE
WITH A SERIES OF LOWS TRACKING E ALONG THE FRONT SUN AND SUN
NITE.

SEAS...BOTH THE 00Z WNA WAVEWATCH III AND 00Z ECMWF WAM MDLS
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL OVR THE OFF WTRS PER THE LATEST OBS. SEA
HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FT OVR THE GULF OF MAINE WTRS TO 3 TO 5
FT FROM SRN NT1 WTRS S OVR MOST OF THE NT2 WTRS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA. FOR THE EARLY AM PACKAGE AND TO REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH THE WIND FCST WE WILL RELY ON THE 00Z WNA WV
WATCH III MDL GUID FOR TODAY INTO THU NITE...AND THEN TRANSITION
TO THE PREV GRIDS AND FCST FOR LTR THU NITE AND FRI THRU THE
UPCOMING WKND.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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