Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGNT40 KWNM 281355
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
955 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

A STNRY FNT XTNDS NE TO SW ACRS THE SERN AREAS OF THE NEW ENGLAND
WTRS INTO THE NWRN AREAS OF THE NRN MID ATLC WTRS THIS MRNG. LOW
PRES WAS ABT 125 NM E OF THE OUTER BANK OF NC AND IS MOVG NE. HAV
NOT SEEN ANY RECENT SATEL DERIVED WINDS ACRS THE OFFSHR WTRS. MDL
GUID HAS WINDS TO 30 KT IN SE QUAD OF THE LOW PRES WITH GALES
DVLPG IN THE NEXT SVRL HRS OVR THE SE QUAD. THE LOW PRES PASSES E
OF THE WTRS...CLOSE TO GEORGES BANK LATER TNGT. ELSW IN THE NELY
FLOW WINDS WERE TO 25 KT OVR THE GLF OF ME AND WL INCRS THRU THE
MRNG INTO THE AFTN TO THE NW OF THE FNT. HAV ONLY MADE A FEW
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS INIT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ADJUSTED
DOWN SLGTLY FOR TDA.

SEAS... THE WWIII AND ECWMF WAM LOOK OK INIT AND COMPARE WELL THRU
THRU FRI NGT WITH MINOR DIFFS. BOTH MDLS ARE SMLR WITH THE SEAS
THAT BUILD ALG THE NJ COAST LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...AND WL
STAY WITH THE WWIII THRU THE FCST PD.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER NT2 WATERS AND ALSO FAR S PORTION OF NT1
WATERS AS OF 0545Z. THE 00Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING NE TO SW FROM NEAR GEORGES BANK TO SRN PORTION OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY. LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL NT2 WATERS
WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING SE. ASCAT PASS FROM LATE TUE EVENING DID
INDICATE AN AREA OF 25 TO 30 KT WITHIN E QUADRANT OF LOW...WITH
EVEN A FEW 35 KT FLAGS NOTED ALTHOUGH THESE WERE RAIN-FLAGGED.
THERE WAS ALSO AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 N OF WARM FRONT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WERE MOSTLY 20 KT OR LESS.

THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT DURING MOST OF THE
FCST PERIOD...WITH ACTUALLY MOST OF THE DIFFERENCES DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY INTO EARLY THU. THE LOW PRES MENTIONED
ABOVE IS FCST BY ALL THE MODELS TO TRACK NE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MOVING E OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. THE 00Z
GFS HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER S WITH TRACK COMPARED TO
12Z/18Z...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS ACTUALLY NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM
YESTERDAYS 12Z GFS RUN. THE GEM/UKMET/NAM ARE ALSO CLOSE TO THE
00Z ECMWF. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND FEEL THE BEST COURSE IS TO
MAINTAIN OFFICIAL GRIDS THROUGH 12Z THU WHICH WILL RESULT IN NO
CHANGES TO GALE WARNINGS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH MDT TO
HIGH CONFDC. STILL EXPECT THE BEST LIKELIHOOD OF GALES NEAR THE
GULF STREAM AS THESE AREAS WILL HAVE BEST INSTABILITY...AND THIS
WILL BE DEPICTED IN GRIDS. THE NEXT FCST CONCERN THEN TURNS TO THE
NT1 AND FAR NW NT2 WATERS THU INTO FRI AS INCREASING GRADIENT FROM
HIGH PRES N OF GULF OF MAINE AND LOWER PRES INLAND OVER MID
ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN INCREASINE NE TO E WINDS. THE MODELS ARE
ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART WITH THESE GALES...AND
EVEN ECMWF/UKMET HAS WINDS TO 32 KT WHICH IS TYPICALLY UNDERDONE.
SO PLAN ON USING THE GFS WINDS HERE WHICH WILL RESULT IN EXPANDING
AREA OF GALES TO ALSO INCLUDE S OF NEW ENGLAND AND BALT TO HUDSON
CANYON. THE HIGH PRES N OF THE NT1 WATERS WILL WEAKEN LATER FRI
AND FRI NIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING. THEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
PERIOD EXPECT WINDS WELL BELOW GALE AS STATIONARY FRONT PERSISTS
OVER AREA WHILE WEAKENING AND LOW PRES INLAND LIFTS NE WHILE ALSO
WEAKENING. IN SUMMARY...WILL POPULATE WIND GRIDS USING OFFICIAL
GRIDS THROUGH 12Z THU...THEN WILL USE THE 00Z GFS 10M WINDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD.

.SEAS...THE 06Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT OBSERVED SEAS
MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE MWW3 FCST VALUES. SIMILAR TO THE WIND
GRIDS...WILL USE THE OFFICIAL GRIDS THROUGH 12Z THU. FROM 12Z THU
AND BEYOND...WILL USE THE 00Z MWW3 WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE HIGHER SEAS WITH THE NE TO E GALES THU INTO THU
NIGHT.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING
SURGE OF MORE THAN 1 FT ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST INTO LONG
ISLAND LATER THU INTO FRI IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS INDICATED BY GFS WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE SINCE WILL BE USING
THE GFS WINDS.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI.

.NT2 MID-ATLANTIC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE THU NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE TODAY.

$$

NOTE: ON OCTOBER 06, 2016...THE NWS FTPMAIL SERVICE WILL DISABLE
THE CURRENT EMAIL ADDRESS. THE NEW EMAIL ADDRESS IS LIVE NOW.
PLEASE TRANSITION TO IT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE TO AVOID A SERVICE
DISRUPTION.

NEW EMAIL ADDRESS...NWS.FTPMAIL.OPS@NOAA.GOV
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FOR THE SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE...PLEASE GO TO
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.FORECASTER ROWLAND/KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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