Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 250718
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
318 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

SUMMARY...00Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRES CENTER NEAR
MARTHAS VINEYARD...WITH A DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT EXTNDG NE FROM
THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. A NE TO SW ORIENTED COLD FRONT
WAS ANALYZED E OF THE OFSHR WTRS BUT W OF BERMUDA...WHILE A HI
PRES RIDGE IS SHOWN OVER THE SRN NT2 WTRS. LATEST AVAIL ASCAT
HI-RES AND RAPIDSCAT PASSES FROM EARLIER TONITE SHOW MAX WINDS IN
THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ASSOCD WITH THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NRN NT2 WTRS. LIGHTNING DENSITY PRODUCT DATA AT 0630Z SHOWS A FEW
SMALL AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NRN NT2 WTRS S
AND E OF 1000 FM...WITH AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ZONE 800
OVER THE NRN GULF OF MAINE

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES...THE LOW WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE EARLY TODAY WHILE WEAKENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS E OVER
THE NT1 AREA LATER TODAY INTO THU. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE
ACROSS THE NT1 WTRS LATE FRI INTO SAT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SE ACROSS THE NT1 AND NE NT2 WTRS SAT INTO SUN. ANOTHER LOW
IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE BLAKE RIDGE AREA FRI NITE OR EARLY
SAT...THEN DRIFT NW TOWARDS THE FAR SW NT2 WTRS SAT NITE THRU SUN
NITE.

MODELS...00Z ECMWF/GFS/UKMET TRACKS THE LOW NW OVER THE SW NT2
WTRS SAT NITE THRU SUN NITE...WHILE THE 00Z GEM IS SIGNIF FASTER
AND TAKES THE LOW INTO THE NT2 WTRS FRI NITE. OTHERWISE THE 00Z
MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD AGREEMNT ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS...WITH THE
00Z ECMWF/GFS 10M IN BEST AGREEMNT. WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
00Z ECMWF/GFS 10M TO POPULATE THE WIND GRIDS FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
PRD.

SEAS...WNA VERSION OF THE 00Z WAVEWATCH III MDL AND 00Z ECMWF WAM
BOTH INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL OVER THE OFSHR WTRS. THE MDLS ARE
IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT THRU THE FCST PRD...EXCEPT THERE ARE SOME
RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES OVER THE SRN NT2 WTRS FOR THE FRI
THRU SUN NITE TIMEFRAME. IN ORDER TO BE CONSISTENT WITH PREFERRED
ATMOS MDLS AND ALSO TO SMOOTH OUT THE DIFFERNCES BETWEEN THE WNA
WW3 AND ECMWF WAM...A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z WNA WW3/ECMWF WAM
WILL BE USED FOR THE WAVE HT GRIDS FOR THE ENTIRE FCST PRD.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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