Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 201538
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
838 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.


LOW PRES TROF IS MOVG E ACRS WA/OR/NRN CA OFFSHR WTRS THIS MRNG
AND WL CONT ACRS THE AREA THRU TNGT. AT THE BASE OF THE TROF OVR
THE WRN AREAS OF NRN CA WINDS WERE TO 25 KT THIS MRNG WHILE ELSW
OVR THE SRN AREAS OF THIS REGION WINDS WERE TO 20 KT. AN ASSOC UPR
SHRTWV IS MOVG E OVR THE NRN CA WTRS AND WL MOV INLAND EARLY
TNGT. A STG CD FNT WL APPROACH THE WA/OR/NRN CA WTRS LATER TNGT
AND CROSS THE WTRS TUE. MDLS CONT TO SHOW DIFFS WITH DVLPG LOW
THAT MOVS NE INTO WA/OR WTRS LATE TUE AND TUE NGT. THE UKMET RMNS
CONSISTENT FM YDY WITH TRACK OF LOW AND WL CONT TO FAVOR ITS
OUTPUT. WL AWAIT 12Z MDL GUID BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO FCST
PACKAGE ESPECIALLY FOR AFT THU THRU FRI NGT WHERE MDLS ARE
SHOWING VARIOUS SLNS AND CONFDC IS LOW.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SUMMARY...A LOW PRES TROF IS MOVG E INTO THE NOCAL...OREG...WASH
OFF WTRS EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE A COLD FRONT WEAKENS NR THE
COAST...EXTENDING S AND SW OVR CENTRAL CAL WTRS. HIGH PRES IS
CENTERED WELL W OF THE SOCAL WTRS N OF HAWAII. THE TROF WILL MOVE
E OVR THE WTRS TDA INTO TNGT. THE HIGH WILL EXPAND E TOWARD THE
SOCAL WTRS TNGT THRU MUCH OF THE WK...AS A LOW PRES TROF DVLPS
ALONG THE SOCAL COAST OR JUST INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS PZ5
AND NOCAL WTRS TUE INTO TUE NGT AS LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE FRONT
LTR TUE AND TUE NGT INTO WED...AND TRACKS NE OVR PZ5 WTRS. GALES
ARE PSBL AHEAD OF THE LOW AND FRONT LTR TUE INTO EARLY WED...
MAINLY OVR ERN PZ5 WTRS. WE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS INTO
TUE NGT AS IT IS IN GNRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z NAM AND
REMAINING 00Z GLBL MDL GUID. FOR LATE TUE NGT INTO WED...WE WILL
FOLLOW A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 00Z UKMET AND 00Z NAM GUID. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREV FCST...WITH GALES OCCURRING
OVR ERN PZ5 WTRS TUE NGT INTO EARLY WED. FOR WED NGT THRU FRI
NGT...MDL GUID BEGINS TO DIVERGE EVEN MORE...WITH DISTURBANCES
ROTATING E AND NE INTO THE REGION AROUND A LARGE UPR LVL LOW
CENTERED W OF THE OFF WTRS WED NGT INTO EARLY FRI. THE UPR LVL
SYSTEM WILL LKLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NE INTO THE FAR ERN PAC AND WRN
NORTH AMERICA FRI INTO THE WKND. MDLS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF SYSTEMS LTR IN THE WK INTO NEXT WKND. FROM WED NGT
INTO FRI NGT WE WILL NOT FOLLOW ANY ONE MDL...BUT FOLLOW AN EVEN
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS...ECMWF...UKMET MDLS AS CONFDC IS QUITE LOW
IN ANY ONE SOLUTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BEYOND FRI NGT...WE
WILL FOLLOW A 50-50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECWMF MDL GUID AS OVRALL
MDL AGREEMENT REMAINS RATHER POOR. THERE COULD BE GALES LATER IN
THE WK INTO NEXT WKND...BUT WITH THE POOR MDL AGREEMENT NOTED OVR
THE REGION DO NOT FEEL CONFDC ENUF TO ADD GALES TO ANY ONE ZONE
AT THIS TIME.

.SEAS...THE 00Z ENP WW3 MDL GUID APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL
OVR THE OFF WTRS EARLY THIS AM. THE GUID IS RUNNING UP TO 3 FT ON
THE LOW SIDE W OF THE OFF WTRS PER THE LATEST ALTIMETER PASSES.
THE HURCN VERSION OF THE WW3 IS ACTUALLY PERFORMING THE BEST W OF
THE WTRS EARLY THIS AM. THESE HIGHER SEAS W OF THE REGION WILL
PUSH E AND SE INTO THE OFF WTRS TDA INTO TUE...AND THEN SUBSIDE
BY MIDWK OVR CALIF OFF WTRS WHILE SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO THE N OVR
PZ5 WTRS. FOR THE EARLY AM PACKAGE WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE 00Z
ENP WW3 MDL GUID INTO TUE NGT...AND THEN USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
WW3 AND ECMWF WAM GUID THEREAFTER.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...NA


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.PZZ805...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE TUE.
.PZZ810...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.PZZ910...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE TUE NIGHT.
.PZZ915...OUTER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER ROWLAND/MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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