Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 232028
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
128 PM PDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

THE 18Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED HURRICANE FORCE LOW CENTERED NEAR
45N139W WITH OCCLUSION EXTENDING NE AND E ACROSS THE FAR W PORTION
OF THE OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO LOOK
VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF DRIER AIR WRAP-AROUND. THE LATEST ASCAT PASS WITH
COVERAGE ONLY OVER CENTRAL AND S CA WATERS INDICATED WINDS INT EH
10 TO 20 KT RANGE.

THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...ROUGHLY THROUGH ABOUT 12Z FRI...THEN
DIFFERENCES APPEAR AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z FRI...THEM MODELS ARE ALL VERY SIMILAR IN
MOVING THE HURCN FORCE LOW NE TO A POSITION ABOUT 400 NM W OF CAPE
FLATTERY BY 12Z WED...THEN MOVES THE LOW SLOWLY NW WHILE
WEAKENING. THE LOW THEN TURNS SE WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN LATER
THU INTO FRI. GIVEN THE STRENTH OF THE SYSTEM...WILL POPULATE
GRIDS USING THE 30M GFS WINDS WHICH ACTUALLY MATCH UP WELL WITH
THE UKMET. IT LOOKS LIKE STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST W OF
THE AREA WITH WINDS TO 40 KT. LOOKING AHEAD TO 12Z FRI AND
BEYOND...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE LOW STALLING NEAR
THE NW PORTION OF WA WATERS WHILE WEAKENING. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO
BE AN OUTLIER MOVING THE LOW FURTHER S EVNETUALLY MOVING THE LOW
INTO THE CENTRAL CA WATERS BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE GFS/CMC/UKMET
ALSO APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE INTO THE WA/OR/N CA WATERS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRES PASSES N OF AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL ALSO POPULATE THE
EXTENDED GRIDS USING THE 30M GFS WINDS.

.SEAS...THE 18Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT OBSERVED SEAS
OVER THE OFFSHORE AND COASTAL WATERS WERE WITHIN A FT OF THE MDL
FCST VALUES. THE MWW3 AND ECMWF WAM ARE FAIRLY CLOSE WITH THE
HIGHER SEAS IN THE S QUADRANT OF HURCN FORCE LOW...BUT USED THE
MWW3 AS IT HAS A LARGER EXTENT OF 33+ FT SEAS. FOR THE
GRIDS...WILL POPULATE USING THE MWW3 VALUES THROUGHOUT.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...THE ETSS INDICATES VALUES
FROM 0.5 TO 1 FT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST NORTH
FROM 00Z WED THROUGH THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THU.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO WED.
.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.
.PZZ805...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE EARLY TONIGHT.
.PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO WED.
.PZZ810...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE EARLY TONIGHT.
.PZZ910...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO WED.
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE EARLY TONIGHT.
.PZZ915...OUTER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO WED.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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