Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 021825
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2014

VALID SEP 02/1200 UTC THRU SEP 06/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS


THE LOWER 48
~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS/NAM/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FROM COAST TO COAST IN AND NEAR
THE LOWER 48.  A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.  FOR FORECAST INFORMATION FOR TROPICAL STORMS
DOLLY AND NORBERT, CONSULT THE LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
ADVISORIES AND GRAPHICS.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$




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