Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 190624
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
124 AM EST SUN NOV 19 2017

VALID NOV 19/0000 UTC THRU NOV 22/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL PREFERENCES WITH CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


SYSTEM DROPPING FROM THE YUKON INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
LINGERING UPPER TROUGHING NEAR THE GULF COAST
SYSTEM LEAVING NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
SHORTWAVES MOVING BY THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLY SIMILAR WITH THESE SYSTEMS.  A
COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF, 00Z CANADIAN, 00Z UKMET, 00Z GFS, AND
00Z NAM IS PREFERRED TO DEAL WITH ANY LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES WITH
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Roth
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