Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS02 KWNS 291721
SWODY2
SPC AC 291720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NERN STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL GULF
COASTAL STATES AND SRN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER HUDSON BAY WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SRN PLAINS...RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING HEIGHTS
OVER THE E.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN DURING
THE DAY FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND INTO THE S
CNTRL GULF COAST STATES WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF STORMS SHOULD BE OVER THE NERN STATES WHERE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE AIDED BY INCREASED DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH.

TO THE W...ELY FLOW AROUND A CNTRL PLAINS HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST
AIR MASS WWD TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH WEAK DAYTIME STORMS
DEVELOPING THERE.

...NERN STATES...
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING NEAR AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NY AND PA EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THIS ZONE OF ASCENT
ENCOUNTERS A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...BUT INCREASING MEAN WIND FIELDS AS WELL AS
FOCUSED LIFT MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY STRONG WINDS...PERHAPS A FEW
DAMAGING GUSTS. ANY HAIL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SMALL.

...CNTRL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS...
STRONG HEATING NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS
FROM ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND INTO NRN FL AND THE WRN
CAROLINAS. STRONG HEATING ALONG WITH WEAK WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
PULSE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS.

..JEWELL.. 07/29/2015




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