Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 280441
SWODY2
SPC AC 280440

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS ERN CANADA WITH BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN STATES BUT WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN. RELATIVELY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD TO AN OLD FRONT FROM
NRN FL WWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO.

SELY WINDS AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM TX INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST MARGINAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING FROM WY INTO CO AND NM DURING THE DAY
WITH A MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND THREAT.

COLD AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED DAYTIME STORM FROM WI INTO MI AND
NRN IL...SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTAIN AT LEAST SMALL HAIL.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SRN PLAINS NWWD ACROSS
ERN CO WITH SELY UPSLOPE FLOW. HEATING AND 50S TO LOWER 60S F
DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK BUT
STRONG DIRECTION SHEAR WITH HEIGHT WILL AID IN STORM LONGEVITY.
STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING WITH A
NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WITH MARGINAL WIND
AND HEAVY RAIN LIKELY.

...WI...NRN IL...MI...
DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO AROUND
500 J/KG MLCAPE. THE STRONG HEATING AND LACK OF CIN WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD CONGESTUS WITH A FEW NW-SE ORIENTED CONFLUENCE BANDS AND
LAKE BREEZES LOCALLY ENHANCING CONVERGENCE. MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR MAY EVEN FAVOR A FEW LONG-LIVED CORES. OVERALL COVERAGE OF
SEVERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED...BUT SUB-SEVERE HAIL COULD
OCCUR WITH MANY OF THE CELLS.

...FL...
HEATING ALONG WITH LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO AN UNSTABLE
AIR MASS DURING THE DAY S OF THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS NRN FL. WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD YIELD A FEW PULSE-TYPE STORMS GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS ALOFT. IN ADDITION...RELATIVELY DRY AIR ABOVE THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MITIGATE STORM
STRENGTH AS WELL.

..JEWELL.. 07/28/2014




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