Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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392
ACUS02 KWNS 240605
SWODY2
SPC AC 240604

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday and Thursday night
across portions of the central High Plains, and during the day
Thursday across portions of the mid-Atlantic region.

...Synopsis...
An elongated upper-level low will lift northeast across the eastern
U.S. on Thursday, with a more zonal flow pattern evolving Thursday
night over much of the central and southeast states.  A
low-amplitude shortwave trough will move from the central High
Plains towards the lower Missouri River Valley Thursday night.  A
cold front will extend from the central High Plains northeast to the
eastern Dakotas Thursday afternoon with a dryline extending
south/southwest through the eastern Texas Panhandle and west Texas.
A cold front will move rapidly eastward across the mid-Atlantic and
southeast U.S. during the afternoon.

...Central High Plains...
In the wake of the cold frontal passage across the central High
Plains Thursday morning, a modestly moist/upslope low-level flow
will develop across the Front Range with dew points in the upper 40s
over northeast Colorado increasing to the lower/mid 50s over
northwest Kansas. Steep mid-level lapse rates with an expanding EML
and diurnal heating should result in weak buoyancy by afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain
during the afternoon, aided by nominal large-scale ascent with the
upper-level impulse. Ample effective shear averaging 45 kts will
result in organized storms including a supercell or two.  Isolated
large hail and damaging gusts will be possible. With time, MCS
development is anticipated with some severe threat continuing across
portions of western/central Kansas.

..Mid Atlantic...
Strong ascent overspreads the area Thursday in association with the
upper-level trough as it lifts northeast across the mid-Atlantic
region. Cool temperatures aloft will contribute towards weak
buoyancy in advance of a cold front that will sweep eastward off the
coast during the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible
in advance of the front and stronger storms may produce severe hail
given long hodographs/potential for storm splits.

...Southern Plains...
A dryline will extend from a surface low in the vicinity of
southwest Kansas southward to near the TX/OK border and northwest
Texas Thursday afternoon. Modified gulf moisture will increase east
of the dryline and combine with steepening mid-level lapse rates and
strong insolation to result in moderate/strong instability by
afternoon, however forecast soundings continue to depict a
substantial capping inversion at the base of the EML that should
effectively suppress afternoon convective development.

..Bunting.. 05/24/2017

$$



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