Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 230623
SWODY2
SPC AC 230623

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
TEXAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...

CORRECTED PROBABILITY GRAPHIC.

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY.  THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS WHERE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.
 ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND MAY ACCOMPANY STRONG CONVECTION
FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

BROAD BUT WEAK 12HR HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SRN/CNTRL
PLAINS SUNDAY AHEAD OF LOW-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT EJECTING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INTO THE
MAIN BODY OF TX BY 24/18Z...THEN NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  EXTREMELY HIGH PW VALUES...RANGING FROM 1.75-2
INCHES...WILL SURGE NWD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE WRN GULF
BASIN...NWD INTO ERN KS.  NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE SHORT WAVE WITHIN MODESTLY SHEARED BUT WEAK LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT.  MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE DRY LINE...BUT WITHIN POST SHORT WAVE
REGIME.  LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE GREATEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL BE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX PRIOR TO
LARGE SCALE FORCING EJECTING NORTH INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.  GREATEST
SEVERE RISK WILL BE ACROSS THIS REGION FOR TSTM ACTIVITY THAT
EVOLVES ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WITHIN BASE OF
EJECTING TROUGH.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.  IT/S NOT CLEAR
IF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND FOR THIS REASON 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS
WILL BE MAINTAINED.

FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN
SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH SEASONALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL SLY 500MB
FLOW.  A FEW SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION
THAT WOULD POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL.

..DARROW.. 05/23/2015



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