Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 020422
SWODY2
SPC AC 020421

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST FRIDAY.  LIGHTNING WILL
BE MORE COMMON WITH CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

...GREAT LAKES TO ERN GULF COAST...

VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE MIDWEST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY2 PERIOD AS INTENSE
MID-LEVEL JET DIGS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY 04/06Z.  SECONDARY
JET CORE AND ASSOCIATED UVV WILL LIKELY LAG THE FRONT MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AND CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES ALONG THE WIND SHIFT WILL DO SO
WITHIN MODEST SHEAR BUT LIMITED BUOYANCY.  CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AN
EXTENSION FROM LATE DAY1 TSTM ACTIVITY THAT EVOLVES OVER THE MS
VALLEY.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MIGRATE EWD WITHIN POOR LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 500
J/KG.  WHILE GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY FRONTAL SQUALL
LINE...FORECAST INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO WEAK TO WARRANT MEANINGFUL
RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WIND.

..DARROW.. 10/02/2014




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