Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 041642
SWODY2
SPC AC 041641

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2016

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE WESTERN U.S. AND OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BENEATH AN UPPER LOW.

...NORTHERN ROCKIES...

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS
ON THURSDAY. WHILE NO UPPER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE
THROUGH THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS ORE/WA INTO NRN ID/NW MT BY 00Z/FRI. A BAND OF
MODEST MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS
REACHING INTO THE LOW 50S AND PW VALUES NEAR 1 INCH. STRONG HEATING
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WILL RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AIDED BY STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER
UPDRAFTS. EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE AND MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
THREAT WILL PRECLUDE HIGHER PROBS.

...PORTIONS OF NRN CA INTO CENTRAL ORE/NW NV...

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NRN CA INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
SMALL HAIL. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED BY LACK OF FORCING ALOFT
OR NEAR THE SURFACE AND SCANT INSTABILITY.

...OH-VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...

AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THE UPPER LOW COULD RESULT IN
SOME SMALL HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF SE OH/WV/VA/NC. WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT ANY ORGANIZED THREAT.

..LEITMAN.. 05/04/2016

$$


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