Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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782
ACUS03 KWNS 180742
SWODY3
SPC AC 180741

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to move eastward from central
Mississippi into north-central Georgia on Wednesday. The convection
may be accompanied by a marginal tornado and strong wind-gust
threat.

...Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia...
An upper-level trough will move eastward from the Arklatex across
Mississippi and Alabama on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front
is forecast to advance eastward from the lower Mississippi Valley
into the central Gulf Coast States. Ahead of the front, a moist
airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the 60s F.
Scattered convection is forecast to be ongoing at 12Z on Wednesday
in central Mississippi along the western edge of a 40 to 50 kt
low-level jet. This convection is forecast to move into
north-central Alabama by midday and into north-central Georgia in
the afternoon. Forecast soundings along this corridor from late
morning into the afternoon show MLCAPE values in the 250 to 500 J/kg
range with 0-6 km shear of 60 to 70 kt. This should be enough for a
marginal severe threat. Forecast soundings also show 0-1 km shear at
or above 30 kt which should be sufficient for a marginal tornado
threat. A potential may also exist for strong wind gusts.

..Broyles.. 12/18/2017

$$



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