Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS03 KWNS 020706
SWODY3
SPC AC 020705

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
WEDNESDAY...A FEW MAY BE SEVERE.

...FL PENINSULA...

SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE ERN GULF
BASIN AS HEIGHTS FALL WITHIN A BROADER LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN
U.S.  THIS SRN-MOST FEATURE WILL AID ASCENT AND INCREASE BULK SHEAR
ACROSS THE PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY ALONG THE WIND SHIFT AND SHOULD
CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES INTO SOUTH FL BY 05/00Z.
SEASONALLY HIGH PW PLUME SHOULD RESIDE OVER THE WARM SECTOR WITH
MUCAPE LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG.  WLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW SHOULD
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY...HENCE ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS
COULD EVOLVE.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHEAR AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ROBUST UPDRAFTS...GUSTY WINDS/HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..DARROW.. 05/02/2016

$$


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