Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 280705
SWODY3
SPC AC 280704

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN VT TO TX...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS
SOME HAIL...WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM
VERMONT...SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS.

...VT TO TX...

PLUME OF TROPICAL AIR WITH PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES WILL EXTEND
ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM TX INTO NRN VT DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD.
SCT-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
WITHIN THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE AND WEAK-MODEST LAPSE RATES.  VERTICAL
SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IS FORECAST TO BE SEASONALLY WEAK AND
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS WITHIN A FLOW REGIME
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY 500MB FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 20KT.
STRONGER FLOW WILL BE NOTED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ALONG SRN
FRINGE OF STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL EJECT ACROSS ONTARIO
INTO QUEBEC.  HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY ROBUST ACROSS NY/VT AND FOR THIS REASON STORMS THAT
FORM WITHIN STRONGER FLOW SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN SEVERE
CHARACTERISTICS.  MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD ALSO EXTEND SWWD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO TX BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST
STORMS SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE.

..DARROW.. 05/28/2015



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