Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
ACUS03 KWNS 260706
SPC AC 260706
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
Strong to severe storms are forecast for Tuesday over parts of
western and central Texas, and southwest Oklahoma.
The next in a series of strong and progressive upper troughs will
track into the southwest states on Tuesday. By afternoon, model
guidance is consistent that strong mid-level height falls and
rapidly increasing wind fields will develop over much of the
southern High Plains. This will draw Gulf moisture northwestward
and focus a dryline just east of the TX/NM border. Models remain
somewhat inconsistent in the latitude of the upper trough, and the
details of where the surface low and dryline will develop.
Nevertheless, an active round of severe storms is forecast for parts
of this region during the evening hours. Forecast soundings show
steep mid level lapse rates, favorable low level moisture, and
strong low/deep layer shear. These parameters suggest the risk of
very large hail, damaging winds, as well as tornadoes. Therefore
have added an Enhanced risk area where confidence in severe storms
is highest at this time.