Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS03 KWNS 250730
SWODY3
SPC AC 250729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE ARKLATEX AREA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MO VALLEY TO THE WRN
GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL STATES WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED IN THE LEE OF
THE SRN ROCKIES AT 12Z/SUN WILL SUBSTANTIALLY SLOW AS IT PROGRESSES
TOWARDS NEB. AN ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL JET /AOA 50 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL
PERSIST FROM THE DESERT SW...CURLING NWD FROM THE RED RIVER TO THE
MO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLONE SHOULD DRIFT EWD OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT ARCING EWD ACROSS THE CORN BELT TO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY. A DRYLINE/WEAKENING PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD
REACH ERN KS/OK INTO DEEP S TX IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

...MO VALLEY TO THE WRN GULF COAST...
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BROAD/MOIST BENEATH AN EML
WITH LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS BECOMING ESTABLISHED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S INTO THE LOWER/MID-MS VALLEYS AND
ARKLATEX BY SUN AFTERNOON. INITIALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ALONG WITH MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AREAS OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/SUN ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SRN PLAINS TO MID-MO VALLEY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALREADY BE
SURFACE-BASED OR WILL TRANSITION TO BECOMING SO AS DIURNAL HEATING
ENSUES. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPS N/E.

THE MOST PROBABLE SEVERE RISK SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE TOWARDS PEAK HEATING...WITH CONFIDENCE GREATEST IN THIS
OCCURRING NEAR THE SRN PERIPHERY OF EARLY DAY STORMS /CENTERED OVER
THE ARKLATEX/. WITH ROBUST HEATING OCCURRING ACROSS TX...MLCAPE
SHOULD PUSH 2500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. HODOGRAPHS APPEAR QUITE
CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG TORNADOES. WITH THE DRYLINE STALLING ACROSS NERN TX SUN
EVENING...TRAINING SUPERCELL CLUSTERS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.

ALONG THE DRYLINE FARTHER N INTO THE MO VALLEY...EARLY DAY
CONVECTION MAY TEND TO LIMIT A GREATER SEVERE RISK. BUT WITH STRONG
INSOLATION...MODERATE BUOYANCY MAY DEVELOP WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE LARGELY
MERIDIONAL...SUFFICIENT CURVATURE TO THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH WOULD
SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION...WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE.

..GRAMS.. 04/25/2014



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