Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS03 KWNS 240728
SWODY3
SPC AC 240727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
LOW-AMPLITUDE WLY FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE CONUS AS A MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE GRADUALLY BUILDS WWD
TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN. WITHIN THIS REGIME...SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE UPPER MS VALLEY
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...N OF A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE OH
VALLEY.

...MUCH OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS...AND WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF
THE REGION. THE TIMING OF EACH IMPULSE AND SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT A BROAD ZONE OF
AT LEAST LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST S OF A MORE
WELL-ESTABLISHED BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS ND. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...AND
SHOULD SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION TO
SUSTAIN A FEW CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS SUPERCELLS AMIDST 20-30 KT OF
MIDLEVEL FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND
GUSTS THE LIKELY THREATS. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION
MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AND
PROPAGATE GENERALLY SEWD ACROSS NEB/KS AND PERHAPS FAR WRN IA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH EARLY
CONVECTION AND TIMING/POSITION OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES...CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW FOR A SLIGHT RISK DELINEATION.

..ROGERS.. 07/24/2016

$$


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