Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 250614
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250614
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-250845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1671
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico into parts of western Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 250614Z - 250845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms may produce marginally severe hail through
the early morning hours.

DISCUSSION...A few strong storms have formed near and south of a
cold front, near an instability axis and aided by a 30 kt southerly
low-level jet. Height tendencies aloft will remain little changed in
the near term, but sufficient low-level convergence and an uncapped
moist air mass should maintain a threat of scattered storms into
Monday morning. Hodographs are not particularly favorable for any
long-lived storms, with relatively weak midlevel winds. But
instability appears strong enough for a few strong cores capable of
some hail.

..Jewell/Grams.. 09/25/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   33830509 36170420 36750342 36680276 36220219 34140238
            32630284 31900336 31700423 31800502 32410544 32790547
            33830509




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