Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
817
ACUS11 KWNS 292101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292100
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-292230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1439
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...SW SD...NEB PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 292100Z - 292230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE FARTHER W IN ERN WY. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND A
WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...TSTM COVERAGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITHIN THE MODEST
INSTABILITY AND THE NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE SUBTLE LARGE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A PERTURBATION MOVING INTO WY WITH SECONDARY SUPPORT
PROVIDED BY THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE REGION. ENVIRONMENT HERE IS
CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST INSTABILITY -- MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG --
AND AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR -- EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KT. SOME
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG COLD
POOLS...SOME UPSCALE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE.  A WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
THE REGION TO COVER THE POTENTIAL SVR THREAT.

..MOSIER/KERR.. 07/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON   44570549 44670388 44030259 42360126 41180329 43100643
            44570549




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.