Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 250344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250344
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-250415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0401
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1044 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MS...FAR SERN AR AND FAR NERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 90...

VALID 250344Z - 250415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 90
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITHIN THE REMAINING VALID
PORTION OF WW 90 ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WITH A DIMINISHING TREND.  TEMPORAL EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT WATCH
AND/OR NEW WATCH ISSUANCE ARE NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW PER WSR-88D VWP DATA INDICATED
WINDS HAVE VEERED TO WSWLY FROM JACKSON MS SWD THROUGH SRN MS AND
ACROSS ALL OF LA AS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUED TO SHIFT
EWD FROM THE OZARKS REGION INTO THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS.  THIS LLJ
WILL PROVIDE AN INFLUX OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...RESIDING OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...INTO THE SWRN EXTENT OF THE TSTM CLUSTER
PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MS INTO WEST CENTRAL AL DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THIS COMBINED WITH SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT
ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHOULD SUPPORT THE TSTM CLUSTER.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE WANING.  WEAKENING TRENDS IN THE
WDSS-II MESH PRODUCT AND THE 7 KM AND 9 KM CAPPI SUGGEST THE OVERALL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHING.  IN ADDITION...THE GOES-R
OVERSHOOTING TOP PRODUCT INDICATED A DIMINISHING TREND OVER EAST
CENTRAL MS SUCH THAT UPDRAFT INTENSITIES ARE LIKELY WEAKENING.

ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SEWD INTO SERN AR
AND NRN LA...THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AS THE LOWER
OH/TN VALLEYS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THIS REGION SUGGESTS
TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE QUITE LOW.

..PETERS.. 04/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32559133 33439066 33779007 33718827 33098824 32578840
            32528971 32559133
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