


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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300 ACUS11 KWNS 150352 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150351 MNZ000-NDZ000-150545- Mesoscale Discussion 1672 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Areas affected...parts of central/northeastern North Dakota through north central Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 150351Z - 150545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development could support increasing potential for severe hail during the next few hours, with some possibility for storms to organize and perhaps become accompanied by strong to locally severe gusts overnight. It is still not clear that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends are being monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development, rooted within forcing for ascent associated with low-level warm advection, is underway southwest of Devils Lake, near the Carrington vicinity of central North Dakota. This is based above a relatively cool, stable boundary layer, to the north of a developing warm frontal zone arcing across east central North Dakota into north central Minnesota. Into the 06-07Z time frame, the strengthening Minnesota segment of the frontal zone is forecast to shift northward, roughly from the Brainerd through Bemidji vicinity. This is also focused along the northern periphery of a plume of warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air. Although south to southwesterly low-level flow remains weak beneath modest westerly mid-level flow on the southern fringe of the westerlies, a strengthening low-level jet (in excess of 30 kt around 850 mb) across South Dakota is forecast to nose northeastward toward the Jamestown through Grand Forks vicinity of North Dakota within the next couple of hours. As this occurs, strengthening forcing for ascent will probably become supportive of increasingly thunderstorm development, which may gradually organize in the presence of strengthening shear. Forecast soundings indicate at least a narrow corridor of sizable CAPE for elevated moist parcels along the frontal zone, providing support for the potential evolution of a few supercell structures. This probably will be accompanied by a risk for large hail. Given the elevated nature of the convection, and the presence of a stable near surface layer, the risk for strong to severe surface gusts appears low, at least initially. However, it might not be out of the question that gravity waves generated by intensifying convection could contribute to surface pressure perturbations supportive of strong surface gusts, as convection develops eastward along the frontal zone into north central Minnesota overnight. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 47889956 48499704 48189362 47369365 47279653 47179951 47889956 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN