Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 271936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271935
LAZ000-TXZ000-272130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1998
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN AND CENTRAL LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271935Z - 272130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FROM SERN TX INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN AND CENTRAL LA.
GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...A BRIEF
TORNADO...AND HAIL APPROACHING 1 INCH DIAMETER.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY THROUGH 1915Z...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THE STORM WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY TO BE
SURFACE-BASED WAS LOCATED IN NRN LIBERTY/POLK COUNTIES TX MOVING
ENEWD INTO HARDIN/TYLER COUNTIES.  RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
/THROUGH 19Z/ SHOWED THE WARM SECTOR CONTINUING TO MOVE INLAND
ACROSS FAR SERN TX AND THE SRN 1-2 TIERS OF LA PARISHES.  THE
AFOREMENTIONED LIBERTY/POLK COUNTIES STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR THE
TRIPLE POINT...AND CURRENT TRACK OF THIS STORM SUGGESTS IT WILL TEND
TO MOVE NEAR OR JUST ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE POLEWARD MOVING WARM
SECTOR.  GIVEN SURFACE WINDS ARE MORE BACKED IN THAT ZONE...
ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AND DEEP LAYER WINDS/SHEAR WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION...THERE EXISTS A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FOR A
SEVERE STORM TO OCCUR.  THE LIMITED EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 12/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   30679464 31049454 31359344 31479216 31259180 30699180
            30339233 30289323 30269386 30279452 30679464



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