Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311535
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JAN 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE FORCE
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THIS MORNING. THE 1200
UTC RAPIDSCAT SHOWS NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-30 KT ACROSS THIS AREA
AND THE GALE WARNING IS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE NOW. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WINDS IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
BECOME SOUTHERLY. AN AREA OF 8-10 FT COMBINED SWELL FROM THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO SPANS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 93W AND 105W. THIS AREA OF HIGH SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TODAY THROUGH LATE SUN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N90W TO 06N110W TO 07N120W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM N
OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 112W...AND FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 118W
AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 134W AND
138W

...DISCUSSION...
1024 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH NEAR 32N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS...PARTICULARLY N OF 15N W OF 115W. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS MAINLY W OF 130W N OF THE ITCZ. THE MOST RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS
FORECAST TO PERSIST W OF 130W THROUGH EARLY SUN. A SMALL AREA OF
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS IS NOTED PER AN ASCAT PASS
SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 96W AND
100W.

SEAS GENERATED BY A STRONG OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC WILL REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA IN ABOUT 18-24
HOURS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT NW OF A LINE FROM 30N138W TO 27N140W BY
EARLY SUN MORNING.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS PROVIDED
OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...ESPECIALLY FROM 09N TO 11.5N E OF 89W. THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH MAX DRAINAGE
FLOW DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SWELL FROM
PAPAGAYO WILL SUBSIDE AND SHRINK EASTWARD AS WIND GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND. FRESH NE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE GULF
OF FONSECA THIS MORNING.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE FUNNELING INTO THE
GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN TO
25 KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SUN THEN DIMINISH TO
20 KT OR LESS DURING SUN AFTERNOON. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND
NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED AS FAR S AS 03N BY EARLY SUN MORNING.

$$
GR


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