Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092144
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 10N ALONG 100W MOVING W AT AROUND 15-20
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO LACK SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AND IS
POORLY DEFINED AT THE SURFACE. THE WAVE IS APPARENT WITHIN THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.

A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS BETWEEN 108W AND 112W HAS MERGED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE NEARBY TO THE W. THAT TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM
20N114W TO LOW PRES NEAR 16N115W TO 12N116W. THIS TROPICAL WAVE
IS MOVING W AROUND 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO 20N WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE LOW AND WAVE ARE WELL APPARENT IN THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 06N88W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N88W TO 11N126W THEN RESUMES FROM 11N132W TO
BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 79W AND
84W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 105W...AND
WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN 1802 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED THE REMNANTS OF
FAUSTO IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM 14N129W TO
08N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED FRESH
TO STRONG NE WINDS MAINLY W OF THE AXIS WITH A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE REMNANTS AND BROAD RIDGING TO THE N...WITH
AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS S OF THE ITCZ WHERE THE PRES
GRADIENT IS ALSO TIGHT. RESULTANT 8-10 FT SEAS ARE ACCOMPANYING
THE WINDS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE W OF 140W BETWEEN 24-48 HOURS
WITH A LINGERING AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS REACHING TO 136W BY 48
HOURS.

THE BROAD RIDGING MENTIONED ABOVE EXTENDS FROM 1032 MB HIGH
PRES NEAR 47N141W SE TO NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS
RIDGING IS FORCING A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF THE
ITCZ WITH GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE NE TO E TRADEWINDS
PREVAILING. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISRUPTING THE BROAD RIDGING IS THE STUBBORNLY PERSISTENT 1016
MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF DOUGLAS WHICH CONTINUES TO SPIN
NEAR 26N126W AND IS DRIFTING SW. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED
NEAR THE CENTER AND THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADEWINDS INDUCED A GULF OF
PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT TODAY...THOUGH NO DIRECT OBSERVATIONS
WERE AVAILABLE. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH WINDS PULSING BACK TO FRESH
TO STRONG LEVELS DURING THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS. RESULTANT SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 8-11 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS. FORCING OF THIS
EVENT SHOULD RELAX BY LATE FRI INTO SAT.

GULF TEHUANTEPEC...A LATE MORNING HI-RES ASCAT SCATTEROMETER
PASS SHOWED A STRIP OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WHICH
SHOULD BE DIMINISHING PRIOR TO SUNSET. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
STRONGER NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT.

$$
LEWITSKY



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