Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022100
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE SEP 2 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS NEAR 18.5N 106.5W AT 2100 UTC OR
ABOUT 325 NM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING N
AT 8 KT. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDED
WITHIN 30 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM SE QUADRANT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM N AND 390
NM S SEMICIRCLES. TO THE NORTH OF NORBERT...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM
23N TO 25N. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 14Z SHOWED SEAS TO 12 FT
EXTEND AROUND 210 NM SW QUADRANT OF CENTER WITHIN A LARGE SWATH
OF 20-33 KT SW WINDS FOUND S OF NORBERT AS SEEN IN SCATTEROMETER
IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY TOMORROW. NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 08N96W TO
13N101W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 16N112W TO 10N137W. THE ITCZ AXIS
WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N137W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED N OF 04N E OF 88W AND
WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 93W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FOUND S OF THE AXIS TO 10N BETWEEN 113W
AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STAGNANT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM
NORBERT...CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE OF INTEREST. AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 20N105W EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS SE ALONG THE COAST TOWARD PANAMA WHERE IT MEETS UP WITH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGED NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS CONVERGED NEAR
NORBERT AND SW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS AREA ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN NORBERT AND 120W SHOULD ALSO REMAIN AN
ACTIVE AREA FOR CONVECTION.

TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AS BOTH THE
REMNANTS OF MARIE JUST NW OF THE AREA AND AN UPPER LOW NEAR
10N135W DISRUPTING THE DEEP LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL HAS BROUGHT SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE AREA S
OF 03N BETWEEN 110W AND 133W TODAY. THE SWELL SHOULD PUSH
NORTHWARD...WITH SEAS OVER 8 FT REACHING AS FAR AS 08N IN
CENTRAL WATERS BY MIDDAY WED BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE EARLY
THU.

$$
SCHAUER/COBB/MUNDELL


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