Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062115
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

LOW PRES 1006 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N132.5W...OR ABOUT 1390 NM
ESE OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...AND IS MOVING NW AROUND 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
300 NM OF THE CENTER...EXCEPT WITHIN 420 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT
OF THE LOW. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS WITHIN 510 NM IN THE N QUADRANT AND WITHIN 420 NM IN THE
SE SEMICIRCLE WHERE SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE ALSO LIKELY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE AND THIS LOW HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 08N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT.
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS LIMITED WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO 08N95W TO 05N110W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N
TO 10N E OF 85W...AND ALSO FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 96W AND 104W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N130W EXTENDS A BROAD
RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 19N...W OF 115W. A WEAK TROUGH IS
MOVING EASTWARD JUST N OF 30N AND WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY N OF THE
AREA WITH LITTLE IMPACT ACROSS THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS.

THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WAS JUST
TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE GULF AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AHEAD OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. WINDS WILL BE 20 KT OR LESS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PULSE IN A DIURNAL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE ENHANCEMENT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS AND WILL
PROPAGATE OFF TO THE W-SW AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL SNEAK N OF THE EQUATOR
BY WED BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO AROUND 120W THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

$$
LEWITSKY


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.