Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020946
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN AUG 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF 15N139.5W AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 11N128W TO 13N137W. E-SE 20-33 KT WINDS ARE
FORECAST TODAY FROM 12-19N BETWEEN 137-140W WITH SEAS OF 11-25
FT. E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE FROM 11-24N
BETWEEN 135-140WW WITH 8-11 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO A BROAD MIX OF
SWELL. EXPECT THE E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA
FROM 13-22N W OF 138W TONIGHT WITH MIXED SWELL RESULTING IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT. CONDITIONS SHOULD SHIFT W OF 140W ON
MON EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO MARINE ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED BY
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
HFOTCMCP4/WTPA24 PHFO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 08N ALONG 89W AND HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING W AT ABOUT 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AND
NICARAGUA TODAY. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 06-16N ALONG 112W AND HAS BEEN
MOVING W AT ABOUT 18 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 11N WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.
A WEAK 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 10N TODAY...AND TRACK W ON MON-TUE WHILE THE PARENT WAVE
LOSES IDENTITY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT
08N78W TO 08N85W THEN TURNS SW TO NEAR 06N95W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH
CONTINUES W-NW TO A TROPICAL WAVE AT 09N112W...THEN DIPS SW TO
06N129W THEN NW TO 08N138W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE GUILLERMO.

EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR GUILLERMO AND THE TROPICAL
WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITHIN 90 NM OF 08N78W AND
11.5N101.5W...WITHIN 30 NM OF 13N91W...AND ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N102W TO 09N111W AND ALSO
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 07N119W TO 09N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS MEANDERING NEAR 28N127W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N112W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA THERMAL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
NORTHWESTERLY 15-20 KT FLOW WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF BAJA THROUGH
TUE WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT MAXIMUM DRAINAGE OF ONLY 15-20 KT AT
SUNRISE TODAY RESULTING IN AN AREA OF 7-8 FT SEAS PROPAGATING W-
SW AND MIXING WITH THE LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH
A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF ENE 20-25 KT WINDS ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

$$
NELSON


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.