Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090943
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON FEB 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS S-SE ALONG THE
EASTERN MEXICO COAST THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
TYPICAL NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH STORM
FORCE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND DIMINISH TO BELOW STORM
FORCE LEVELS BY TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY APPROACH 50 KT AGAIN
TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. MAXIMUM SEAS WITH EACH OF THESE
NIGHT TIME PULSES OF WIND WILL BUILD TO 18-20 FT. EXPECT STRONG
GALES TO AT LEAST 40 KT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NE
SWELL EXTENDING FAR BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION THAT WILL MERGE
WITH SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT TO
CREATE HIGH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXTENDING WELL BEYOND 110W
THROUGH FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SPILL THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACCELERATE
DOWNWIND ACROSS PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA REMAINS TIGHT
PRODUCING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO AREA DUE TO
MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW PEAKING IN INTENSITY THROUGH
LATE MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PULSE EACH LATE NIGHT/
EARLY MORNING...OTHERWISE NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH BRIEF
PERIODS TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WATERS OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS E OF 90W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA.
THIS PROLONGED STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IS GENERATING A VERY LARGE
AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS THAT WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA S
OF 12N BETWEEN 90W-110W FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N88W TO 05N104W TO 04N114W TO 05N130W TO
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N103W TO 02N121W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 122W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS GENERALLY W OF 115W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER
PRES NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO OCCASIONAL
STRONG NW WINDS GENERALLY N OF 30N IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WITH SEAS REMAINING LESS THAN 8 FT. THE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE EVENING.

THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE E PACIFIC HIGH IS ALSO MAINTAINING AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 135W
WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS
RELATIVELY SMALL AREA BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND ITCZ REGION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH NW SWELL PRODUCING SEAS RANGING FROM 8 FT
ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT TO 13 FT AT THE NW CORNER NEAR
30N140W. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN IN THE FAR
NW PORTION FROM 30N132W TO 23N140W THROUGH LATE TUE...AND
DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER BY LATE WED.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF
PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N BETWEEN 78W-82W THROUGH MID-
WEEK WITH MAX SEAS REACHING TO 9 FT.

$$
HUFFMAN


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