Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK

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FXAK67 PAJK 281405
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
605 AM AKDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SHORT TERM...Quiet weather across the panhandle through the day,
as northerly outflow and ridging aloft help keep the panhandle
free of precipitation. Although some areas have experienced fog,
it has far less widespread than the previous night. Some cloud
cover is likely through the day, especially for the southern
panhandle, but not enough to fully impede diurnal heating.
Temperatures will reach into the 50s across much of the panhandle
through the day, before dropping back into the 20s and 30s on
Thursday night.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/...Extremely minor changes to
the overall long term package. A warm frontal band is still
expected to move into the region late Friday night and extend over
the panhandle Saturday morning. With this trough, expect some
temperatures to drop and snow chances to increase. Expect these
chances to remain mostly marginal and quickly diminished with the
incoming warm front Saturday morning. Behind the warm front on
Saturday, a stronger warm front pushes in from a strong low near
Kodiak Island. Along with warmer temperatures, moderate rainfall,
mainly targeted at the NE gulf coast, will push in alongside the
front. Behind the front, continued onshore flow and deep moisture
will ensure upslope rainfall will continue through the weekend.
Ensemble guidance indicate that 1.0 to 1.5 inches of rainfall is
expected for the Yakutat area in a 24 hour period, with a higher
percentage of models near the 1.5 inch mark. There does exist a
10% chance of above 2 inches of rainfall in 24 hours, but this
scenario was not weighted heavily. Rainfall rates are expected to
be around 0.10 - 0.12 per hour at the heaviest.

For changes, brought up QPF slightly to reflect above discussion
on rainfall totals. Furthermore, brought up winds Saturday night
in the inner channels to reflect the stronger trough moving into
the Yukon. There is increasing potential for gusts up to 50 mph in
Skagway as the trough passes north, and small craft winds up to 30
knots in Lynn Canal. Otherwise, warm temperature will keep
conditions mild and more importantly, keep precipitation type as
mostly rain for sea level communities.

Beyond Monday, models are showing a cooling trend and therefore
some potential for snow in the forecast. Currently keeping
daytime highs above freezing due to the early April sun angle, but
will need to be looked at for potential timing changes.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 12Z Friday/...Primarily VFR CIG and VIS flight
conditions are expected through the entire 24-hour TAF period for
all of the Alaskan Panhandle except for some pockets of patchy fog,
which may reduce VIS and CIG conditions down into the IFR flight
category into the mid-morning hours Thursday. SFC wind and LLWS
values look to remain benign through the forecast period.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661>664.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...JLC

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