Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
035 FXUS64 KAMA 040815 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 315 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A cold front has passed through the panhandles very early this morning. This front is causing some light showers and thunderstorms that will dissipate before the mid morning hours. The winds have shifted to the N post cold front and are currently gusting in the 20s to 30s mph. These winds will remain gusty through the rest of the morning with a slight weakening trend. The passage of the front will shunt moisture to the S leaving the panhandles with just cloudy skies. It wont be till the arrival of a short wave that the moisture will come surging back into the southern panhandles. This when coupled with the instability of the short wave will spark off another round of showers and thunderstorms. The overall dynamics of this system will allow for stronger storms to develop but this would be over more central TX and not in the panhandles. This doesn`t mean no strong storms wont happen in the panhandle just that it is a very low chance. While the chance of rain may be high the intensity of the rain has a higher chance of being light as the moisture return wont be long or strong enough for high rainfall amounts. The moisture will have a high chance of sticking across the panhandles through the evening hours but as said before this should only lead to lighter showers and thunderstorms. It wont be until Sunday morning that most of the moisture get shunted out of the panhandles that the showers activity will become very light and isolated. Sunday will also see a stronger low pressure system develop across the desert SW which will begin to impact the southern plains. This would mainly be reflected with an increase in the winds for Sunday and a shift to a southerly direction. These southerly winds will also allow for Sunday to be warmer than Saturday with highs in the 70s. SH && .LONG TERM ... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Some breezy to possibly windy conditions may exist Monday afternoon (wind gusts potentially up to 50 mph) with a possible dryline set up across the far eastern combined Panhandles. Depending on the position of the dryline and upper level support from a potentially negatively tilted trough at H5 some thunderstorms will be possible for only the far eastern combined Panhandles. Have stayed with NBM PoPs for now, around 20 to 30 percent, which may still be too high. This dryline is looking like it may still be well into western OK with no thunderstorms in the Panhandles. West of the dryline breezy and dry conditions are expected and depending on the state of fuels fire weather conditions may exist. The rest of the week looks primarily benign with maybe a couple of weak cold fronts bringing northerly winds and daytime temperatures back down into the 70s for Thu, and upper 60s to lower 70s for Fri. Fri a shortwave trough is progged to approach the far northwestern combined Panhandles with maybe a slight chance PoPs for the far western OK Panhandle. Beyond day 7, on Sat is when this trough may actually bring PoPs to the other parts of the FA. This will be the next potential weather maker after Mon. 36 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A cold front is passing through the panhandles this morning impacting all terminals. This front will bring gusty north winds to all terminals that will last to the afternoon hours today. These winds will be strongest with frontal passage and slowly become weaker through the morning hours. In OK panhandle the front will cause thunderstorms which can impact KGUY. This thunder activity is currently not expected to arrive at KDHT and KAMA as the chance for this are very low. The front will bring low clouds to all the terminals which will cause MVFR to IFR conditions with generally lower clouds in the OK panhandle compared to TX panhandle. This afternoon moisture will surge back into the panhandles from the S which can cause further showers and thunderstorms mainly in the S TX panhandles. This activity looks to be confined to the afternoon to early evening hours but there is a small chance that it could persist longer. KAMA and KDHT would be the more likely stations to be impacted by this thunder. Winds during the afternoon hours will likely weaken and shift to a more easterly flow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 70 51 74 57 / 20 50 20 10 Beaver OK 69 47 74 56 / 10 30 30 10 Boise City OK 65 44 75 55 / 10 20 10 0 Borger TX 73 52 78 59 / 10 40 30 10 Boys Ranch TX 71 51 79 59 / 10 40 20 10 Canyon TX 70 51 74 57 / 20 40 20 10 Clarendon TX 69 52 70 58 / 40 60 20 20 Dalhart TX 67 46 75 54 / 10 30 20 0 Guymon OK 68 46 75 55 / 10 20 20 10 Hereford TX 71 52 77 58 / 20 40 10 10 Lipscomb TX 70 50 74 57 / 10 50 30 10 Pampa TX 69 51 73 58 / 20 50 30 10 Shamrock TX 71 52 71 57 / 70 60 30 20 Wellington TX 71 54 72 58 / 60 60 20 20 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...98