421
AXNT20 KNHC 110538
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat May 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N22W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the northern Gulf, from the
Florida Panhandle to northeast portions of Tamaulipas, Mexico. No
significant convection is associated with the front. Behind the
front, moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail. Elsewhere, gentle
to moderate southerly winds dominate the rest of basin ahead of
the front, becoming southwesterly across the Florida Big Bend.
Fresh winds are pulsing near the Yucatan Channel and the Bay of
Campeche, where the diurnal thermal trough has developed. Seas
are slight to moderate across the entire basin.

For the forecast, the stationary front extending from the western
Florida panhandle to inland Mexico just north of Tampico will
transition back to a cold front and move southeastward across the
basin, reaching from near Tampa Bay, Florida to S Texas early Sat.
The front will stall again from the Straits of Florida to S Texas
on Sun, then gradually weaken with its remnants lifting back N as
a warm front through Sun night. Moderate to locally fresh
northeast winds will follow the front into Sat evening. Moderate
to fresh return flow will dominate for the start of next week,
with another front or trough possibly impacting the western Gulf
by Tue. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern
Mexico continues across most of the western Gulf. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse near the Yucatan Peninsula each evening starting
Sat. East winds at fresh speeds are expected to develop in the NW
Gulf Wed and Wed night and in the far south-central Gulf near and
in the Yucatan Channel.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean, as high
pressure is centered across the east-central Atlantic, and extends
a weak ridge westward to south Florida. Gentle to moderate trade
winds prevail over most of the basin, except fresh to strong E to
SE winds across outer portions of the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are
slight to moderate across the basin, with peak seas to 6 ft
across the Gulf of Honduras. Stable atmospheric conditions now
dominate most of the basin. The exception is about the monsoon
trough, where scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
between 10N and 12N W of 75W.

For the forecast, the high pressure N of the basin will continue
support fresh to strong winds near the Gulf of Honduras, moderate
to fresh winds in the S-central and SE Caribbean, with gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere through the weekend. The pressure gradient
will tighten early next week, with fresh to strong trades in the
S-central and NW Caribbean, and moderate to fresh elsewhere. Seas
will build next week as a result of the increasing winds. Meanwhile,
haze due to agricultural fires in Central America continues
across most of the NW Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1014 mb surface low is analyzed near 25N59W. A surface trough is
from 30N58W to 21N60W. To the east, another trough is analyzed
from 29N48W to 19N48W. Scattered showers are noted along these
features. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails, anchored by a 1026
mb high centered near 33N33W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are
present north of 27N and west of 65W. South of the ridge, gentle
to moderate easterly winds prevail north of the Greater Antilles
to 22N. Seas are slight to moderate across these waters, reaching
6 to 7 ft along 31N in the fresh southwesterly winds. Gentle to
moderate NE to E are present east of 48W. Moderate seas in
northerly swell prevail across these waters, with peak seas 7 to 8
ft from 10N to 20N between 30W and 40W.

For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging over the area will
continue to retreat eastward as a cold front moves off the
southeastern United States tonight, reaches from 31N74W to near
West Palm Beach, Florida early Sat, then from just southeast of
Bermuda to the Straits of Florida early Sun. Fresh to strong winds
will be ahead of the front through Sat evening, with moderate to
fresh winds behind the front. Seas to around 8 ft are expected
with the fresh to strong winds. The front is expected to weaken
and slow down as it reaches from 31N59W to the southeastern
Bahamas early Mon, then from 29N55W to 23N65W early Tue as high
pressure builds in the wake of the front. Another front may move
over the waters east of northeast Florida around mid-week. Ahead
of this possible next front, fresh to strong southerly winds are
expected over the northwest part of the area starting late Mon.

$$
ERA